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Atko

Tennis - 31 October - 6 November

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Two fairly big tournaments this week for the men. We've got 500 series in Basel and Valencia, with Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and David Ferrer all involved. High quality fields in both. As for the women, there's the end of season event in Bali. Good luck :ok

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November A couple for me today ... - Daniel Gimeno-Traver +2.5 games (v Fabio Fognini in Valencia) @ 1.877 with Pinnacle 7pts I'm not one to often get involved in matches with Gimeno-Traver, but I think he's definitely backable today. He's from Valencia, and last year took to these conditions well and defeated Nicolas Almagro. Although clay is his best surface, he can be competitive indoors, especially against someone like Fognini. I just don't trust the Italian off the clay. He's a talented player but mentally he's very weak and is prone to severe haemorrages in concentration. He's one of those players who totally gives up when things aren't going his way, and his indoor record is pretty meek, if truth be told. He does have the advantage in the H2H, but the majority of those matches have come on clay. Gimeno-Traver is a much more powerful player and I think his game is more suited to these conditions than Fognini's, especially with serve. Fognini doesn't have a great deal of power and I could see Gimeno-Traver out-hitting him. I had the odds a lot closer than this, so the handicap, in my book, appears sound. - Gilles Simon -3.5 games (v Nikolay Davydenko in Valencia) @ 2.07 with Pinnacle 4pts I really think Davydenko is a spent force these days. He used to be a tremendous indoor player, but his powers have waned considerably. This was shown last week in Vienna, where he was beaten by Steve Darcis, throwing away a 5-0 lead in the final set. Having watched that match, there were certain elements of the Russian's game that make him vulnerable to decent players. His serve is extremely weak and easily picked on, and his groundstrokes lack the snap that once had him in the top 5. In short, he appears a declining force. Simon is a very handy indoors player indeed. He's a counterpuncher who can rally for hours and certainly has the upper hand on the Russian. He leads the H2H 5-1 and has covered this line before when Davydenko was in his pomp. There's always the threat of Davydenko returning to something near his best, but the signs aren't there at present. He looks a sitting duck to me against Simon and I'm happy to play the line at good odds.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November

A couple for me today ... - Daniel Gimeno-Traver +2.5 games (v Fabio Fognini in Valencia) @ 1.877 with Pinnacle 7pts I'm not one to often get involved in matches with Gimeno-Traver, but I think he's definitely backable today. He's from Valencia, and last year took to these conditions well and defeated Nicolas Almagro. Although clay is his best surface, he can be competitive indoors, especially against someone like Fognini. I just don't trust the Italian off the clay. He's a talented player but mentally he's very weak and is prone to severe haemorrages in concentration. He's one of those players who totally gives up when things aren't going his way, and his indoor record is pretty meek, if truth be told. He does have the advantage in the H2H, but the majority of those matches have come on clay. Gimeno-Traver is a much more powerful player and I think his game is more suited to these conditions than Fognini's, especially with serve. Fognini doesn't have a great deal of power and I could see Gimeno-Traver out-hitting him. I had the odds a lot closer than this, so the handicap, in my book, appears sound. - Gilles Simon -3.5 games (v Nikolay Davydenko in Valencia) @ 2.07 with Pinnacle 4pts I really think Davydenko is a spent force these days. He used to be a tremendous indoor player, but his powers have waned considerably. This was shown last week in Vienna, where he was beaten by Steve Darcis, throwing away a 5-0 lead in the final set. Having watched that match, there were certain elements of the Russian's game that make him vulnerable to decent players. His serve is extremely weak and easily picked on, and his groundstrokes lack the snap that once had him in the top 5. In short, he appears a declining force. Simon is a very handy indoors player indeed. He's a counterpuncher who can rally for hours and certainly has the upper hand on the Russian. He leads the H2H 5-1 and has covered this line before when Davydenko was in his pomp. There's always the threat of Davydenko returning to something near his best, but the signs aren't there at present. He looks a sitting duck to me against Simon and I'm happy to play the line at good odds.
I'm in the middle of my research for todays plays, but I find it very hard to justify putting anything on Simon at the moment, and this game could end up 6-1 6-1 to either player. Simon has 0 interest in Tennis for now and we have no idea which Simon will bother to turn up. If hes up for it he should cover the line with ease, but he makes prefer a week at home rather than playign tennis. I'm going to trade this match assuming I can get a stream on tennistv as there could be some huge swings. gl.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November just seen the lines for fabio fognini he was 8/15 yesterday to win with bet365 but now is 4/5 price has changed drastically for a monday there is not that many games in the ATP circuit pretty annoyed at that still mulling over what i am going to take but troicki to beat baghdatis at 5/4 tickles my fancy but will be back in abit and will put more info on my picks GL all

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November

I'm in the middle of my research for todays plays' date=' but I find it very hard to justify putting anything on Simon at the moment, and this game could end up 6-1 6-1 to either player. Simon has 0 interest in Tennis for now and we have no idea which Simon will bother to turn up. If hes up for it he should cover the line with ease, but he makes prefer a week at home rather than playign tennis. I'm going to trade this match assuming I can get a stream on tennistv as there could be some huge swings. gl.[/quote'] He's got semi-final points to defend, so I'm quietly hopeful of a more motivated Simon making an appearance. Davydenko, on his part, hasn't looked especially motivated either recently.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Nothing for me in the matches today, so I am going with two outrights. (2/10) David Ferrer to win ATP Valencia @ 6.00 with Bet365 (1,2 1/2) (E-W) For me, the Spaniard is the favourite for the title. He loves this place, he has won the last edition of the tournament and he has been in great form recently - his tour of Asia was definitely a big success. He is also in the easier part of the draw in my opinion and he should have an edge over most of the other guys. This surface is much, much slower than other indoor hards - and he can take advantage of that. (0.5/10) Tomas Berdych to win ATP Basel @ 15.00 with Bet365 (1,2 1/2) (E-W) Call me crazy, but this is worth a shot. Berdych has been playing well recently and he comes into this one knowing that a good showing will practically guarantee him a place in the Finals. He has two big opponents in his half - Mardy Fish and, of course, Djokovic. I have some doubts about the American in this part of the season and I just cannot justify the fact that Djokovic is priced at 2.25 with many bookies for the title. He cant risk anything fitness-related, the Finals must be on his mind and Berdych was always pretty solid in their H2H meetings.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November

Sport Tennis
Event Tomas Berdych - Kei Nishikori
Selection Kei Nishikori
Strength 10/10
Date 01/11/2011
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 4.78
Reasoning Perhaps Tomas Berdych should be a favorite in this match but odd for Kei Nishikori's win is crazy! I see big value here. You should know that Kei Nishikori leads 1-0 in head-to-head series. They played two years ago at ATP Brisbane and Kei Nishikori won in two sets. The match lasted 100 minutes and Kei won 12 points more than Berdych! Kei Nishikori's service is not strong but he plays great in rallies! Tomas Berdych is a impatient, chimerical player. He lost in the first round here in the last year (against a weak player - Tobias Kamke). It is not his favourite tournament. He don't have to defend many points so motivation is not high. For me odd is too high and I take it!

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Too many flips today so just one small bet: Melzer V's Young over 22.5 Evens General (1/10) Young has a real chance here, I dont see value in the handicap at +2.5 games but I do see young putting up a real battle. Youngs form has been decent of late and he beat Melzer recently. I beleive the overs is the better play but im still in 2 minds about this so I may also back young out right (in running)/trade during the game.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November

Atko? :hope
I've not heard back from Paul. Seems a bit silly this, so I'm happy for you to continue to post, everyone deserves a second chance, although if Paul decides otherwise then so be it. Just don't be a cnut like before, or that'll be end of you. :cheers

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November

I've not heard back from Paul. Seems a bit silly this, so I'm happy for you to continue to post, everyone deserves a second chance, although if Paul decides otherwise then so be it. Just don't be a cnut like before, or that'll be end of you. :cheers
Cool, thanks mate, anyway you can unban the previous ID? This does seem a bit of a retarded one to be honest... :rollin

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Right I'm having two outrights over in Spain. Completely agree with Czech on Ferrer. David Ferrer to win Valencia- 5/1- (2/10 E/W-1/2) Can't add alot to what's been said. Ferrer is the defending champ here in Spain and will want to get some from going into London at the end of the season. The top half of the draw doesn't look too taxing at all, and given the slower conditions of these indoor courts, it suits the clay courters well, so it should very much compliment David's game well. There's nobody in that top half of the draw I see really beating Ferrer this week, and given the bottom half has a few players that will battle it out with eachother, Ferrer just looks to have the best draws on paper and he should make at least the final in my opinion. Juan Carlos Ferrero to win Valencia- 28/1 Bet365- (1/10 E/W-1,2) You can get better odds in other places but I don't have accounts with them. Already spoken about Ferrer and the top half, we have a guy here in Ferrero, who is playing better and better with every tournament, and he looks to be returning to some good form. He already beat Verdasco and Youzhny in Shanghai, showing he can beat the better players now, and has a clay tournament win this season, as well as a semi appearence as well, which like Ferrer, should see him go well on these courts. I don't believe he'll face any major tests until at least the 3rd round, and I'd back him to beat Lopez should play him. Really see him and Ferrer as the stand outs in the top half of the draw, so I'll back Ferrero as well at odds which I really think are over the top.

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I'm in the middle of my research for todays plays' date=' but I find it very hard to justify putting anything on Simon at the moment, and this game could end up 6-1 6-1 to either player. Simon has 0 interest in Tennis for now and we have no idea which Simon will bother to turn up. If hes up for it he should cover the line with ease, but he makes prefer a week at home rather than playign tennis. I'm going to trade this match assuming I can get a stream on tennistv as there could be some huge swings. gl.[/quote'] Looks like you called this one spot on, Simon not playing well at all.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November J, Isner vs V, Pospisil - J, Isner to win (2-0) with SportingBet @ 10/11 - 3.5 Points Pospisil is an up and coming talent, don't get me wrong and this year has been his break through year, however the kid lacks in composure, he often spurns lots of BP opportunities .. the ratio I would estimate is around 3 in 10 taken. He also lacks any real defensive qualities and against a big serving Isner, having those skills are essential. Isner hasn't played since the US Open wherein he was ousted by Andy Murray in the quarters in 4 sets .. its pretty obvious the price for a straights victory would be a bit lower than it is now had his last match not been approaching 2 months now. Even with that said, I have complete faith in Isner's clutch serving and in all knack of raising his game when receiving to make that one break. (or in other cases, mini-break when faced in a tie break) Pospisil showed a lot of immaturity in his last match against Seppi, Seppi was not even playing particularly well and Pospisil flunked quite a few opportunities, smashed his racket and got in a massive strop. Also to add indoor hard suit bigger servers and Pospisil's straight set loss to Seppi, wherein he found it hard to keep any consistent rythm going was also on an indoor hard.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November

Looks like you called this one spot on' date=' Simon not playing well at all.[/quote'] still hoping for a davyendko choke but simon has been poor got -2.5 4/5 at the start but it wont matter because i do see davyndenko to close this out :@

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Vasek Pospisil +3.5 against John Isner. 1.8 @ Bodog Both of these players have pretty big serves, so I think there is the potential for this to be a close match, possibly decided by the odd tiebreak. Isner's record on indoor hard courts is nothing spectacular, especially outside the US, and I think Pospisil has a real chance here. Pospisil has played two matches in qualifying here already, facing only three break points. While Isner may shade it in the end, I think it will be tight, so happy to take Pospisil on the handicap.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November yeah, went also in heavily on Simon after 0:2 Davydenko as I figured he just needs a couple of games to get started in his first round. I am just baffled by Simon's positioning on the court. Also no precision. Something is just not right with his game as of late. We'll see, we're back on serve... :unsure

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November

Vasek Pospisil +3.5 against John Isner. 1.8 @ Bodog Both of these players have pretty big serves, so I think there is the potential for this to be a close match, possibly decided by the odd tiebreak. Isner's record on indoor hard courts is nothing spectacular, especially outside the US, and I think Pospisil has a real chance here. Pospisil has played two matches in qualifying here already, facing only three break points. While Isner may shade it in the end, I think it will be tight, so happy to take Pospisil on the handicap.
Fully respect your choice of bet and method of thinking, however I'd just like to bring to your attention, incase you already didn't know, the two rounds of qualies he got through... Qualifying R1 Def. (6)Edouard Roger-Vasselin(100,2.10) (FRA) 7-6(4) 6-4 Edouard Roger-Vasselin is not the most gifted or consistent performers and although he didn't have any break points, managed a tie break. Qualifying Rnd 2 Def. (4)Pere Riba(76,0.66) (ESP) 6-0 2-1 ret. Riba is a decent player, yes, but going by this scoreline, the probability is he went into the match with an injury he'd hoped he'd be able to run of. So you might be slightly blinkered here.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November And having 4 involving the men as well today. Roger Federer vs Potito Starace- Under 17.5 games- 11/10 Coral- (3/10) I know Federer has his critics now, as he has slipped down to number 4 in the world, behind Murray now, but I see him being extremely comfortable until at least the semis this week and I fancy him to really undo Starace's game here. I watched most of the Italian's match against Tipsarevic last week, where he took the first set on the tie break, but after missing a break point in the second set, went completely missing and looked completely disinterested for the rest of the match. He has a decent serve which led him to pinch that first set last week, but Federer is better on return, and in the rallies, you wouldn't expect the Italian to win many of the longer points. The H2H says it all, 5-0 to Roger, with the last 3 matches all covering the unders. It's on Roger's homeland, and I'm expecting him here to give the fans something to really shout about. Nicolas Mahut (+2.5 games) to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez- 10/11 Coral- (3/10) Slightly favouring the Frenchman here after he has come through the qualifiers in Spain and will have been able to adapt to the conditions of the courts more than the Spaniard. The Frenchman has his big serve to keep things tight for the majority, or even pinch a set. Granted he isn't as great on clay as the Spaniard, but interestingly enough he actually beat him on clay in their only previous meeting, so that should bear him well for these slower indoor courts. Lopez has been pretty rotten all season to be honest, and is surely suffering from a lack of confidence. Even though he kept the first set with Melzer tight last week, the Austrian still managed to run away with the second. Mahut should be able to really frustrate him on serve, and not give him much on return. Just fancy Mahut to be extremely competitive in this one. Jurgen Melzer (-2.5 games) to beat Donald Young- 5/6 Bet365- (2/10) This one I'm digging my own grave by backing the Austrian on the handicap, but I do think he might just come through this one with a bit to spare. Melzer hasn't been in any really consistent form for a while now, failing to make it past the quarters of any tournament since the clay season incredibly. But he showed glimpses in his matches with Lopez and Anderson last week, which was encouraging from the Austrian's point of view. Young has had a really good season as we all know, but he hasn't played for a few weeks, and when he did back in Shanghai, he didn't look half the player he has been throughout the season. He was pushed in the qualifiers, then got beaten by Wawrinka, so I'm a bit dubious to what kind of place the American is in right now with his game. Despite Young's win over Melzer earlier on in the year, I'm still favouring the Austrian given he's had some court time recently. Vasek Pospisil to beat John Isner- 5/2 Bet365- (2/10) Taking one dog for the day, simply because I have no idea what kind of condition Isner is in right now. The American hasn't played at all since the US open due to injury, so I'm worried he won't be at 100%, see no way he can be whereas the Canadian has already played 2 matches here this week, in qualifiers against decent players in Roger-Vasselin and Riba and came through both in straight sets, which should give him some confidence. We have already seen recently what he can do the big Canadian. Stuck with Federer over two sets, and gave Lopez a mighty fight at the US open. Think it's worth a small punt here given Isner's lack of time on court, so backing the Canadian to record an upset.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Been tradign Simon but out now for small green. Stats suggest (and common sense) if this goes to a 3rd Simon runs away with it. Handicaps not dead yet but will be hard :( fingers crossed.

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Wouldn't rule out Simon yet guys, if he manages to take it to a decider, fair chance the Russian might roll over. Also seems like me and ImLovinIt are against each other on near enough every match these days, we need to find one we can agree on ;)

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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November

And having 4 involving the men as well today. Roger Federer vs Potito Starace- Under 17.5 games- 11/10 Coral- (3/10) I know Federer has his critics now, as he has slipped down to number 4 in the world, behind Murray now, but I see him being extremely comfortable until at least the semis this week and I fancy him to really undo Starace's game here. I watched most of the Italian's match against Tipsarevic last week, where he took the first set on the tie break, but after missing a break point in the second set, went completely missing and looked completely disinterested for the rest of the match. He has a decent serve which led him to pinch that first set last week, but Federer is better on return, and in the rallies, you wouldn't expect the Italian to win many of the longer points. The H2H says it all, 5-0 to Roger, with the last 3 matches all covering the unders. It's on Roger's homeland, and I'm expecting him here to give the fans something to really shout about. Nicolas Mahut (+2.5 games) to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez- 10/11 Coral- (3/10) Slightly favouring the Frenchman here after he has come through the qualifiers in Spain and will have been able to adapt to the conditions of the courts more than the Spaniard. The Frenchman has his big serve to keep things tight for the majority, or even pinch a set. Granted he isn't as great on clay as the Spaniard, but interestingly enough he actually beat him on clay in their only previous meeting. Lopez has been pretty rotten all season to be honest, and is surely suffering from a lack of confidence. Even though he kept the first set with Melzer tight last week, the Austrian still managed to run away with the second. Mahut should be able to really frustrate him on serve, and not give him much on return. Just fancy Mahut to be extremely competitive in this one. Jurgen Melzer (-2.5 games) to beat Donald Young- 5/6 Bet365- (2/10) This one I'm digging my own grave by backing the Austrian on the handicap, but I do think he might just come through this one with a bit to spare. Melzer hasn't been in any really consistent form for a while now, failing to make it past the quarters of any tournament since the clay season incredibly. But he showed glimpses in his matches with Lopez and Anderson last week, which was encouraging from the Austrian's point of view. Young has had a really good season as we all know, but he hasn't played for a few weeks, and when he did back in Shanghai, he didn't look half the player he has been throughout the season. He was pushed in the qualifiers, then got beaten by Wawrinka, so I'm a bit dubious to what kind of place the American is in right now with his game. Despite Young's win over Melzer earlier on in the year, I'm still favouring the Austrian given he's had some court time recently. Vasek Pospisil to beat John Isner- 5/2 Bet365- (2/10) Taking one dog for the day, simply because I have no idea what kind of condition Isner is in right now. The American hasn't played at all since the US open due to injury, so I'm worried he won't be at 100%, see no way he can be whereas the Canadian has already played 2 matches here this week, in qualifiers against decent players in Roger-Vasselin and Riba and came through both in straight sets, which should give him some confidence. We have already seen recently what he can do the big Canadian. Stuck with Federer over two sets, and gave Lopez a mighty fight at the US open. Think it's worth a small punt here given Isner's lack of time on court, so backing the Canadian to record an upset.
Valencia is indoor hard mate.

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