BBOTD - Saturday 29th October

[Petersson1984]

15:40 Ascot Muirhead Win (8,00) William Hill The 8 year old, had an impressive career so far. He won earlier this month, at the same distance, and a heavy going. Todays race, are much a like, and it would not be a surprice, seeing him up front again. Muirhead recent form. 6-3-1-4-1 The jockey Carberry are a regular on Muirhead. This will be their 19th runs together.

[fintron]

BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 3.20 Wetherby - Charlie Hall Chase Chief Dan George and Acrai Rua can be discounted immediately as not being good enough. Talented novice Weird Al has a little to prove at present having gone the wrong way last season, meeting with setbacks. Chicago Grey has a bit to find at the weights and might ideally prefer further given his Cheltenham win came over a stamina sapping 4m. Poquelin is a useful Grade 3 - Grade 2 animal but is better known for his 2m5f exploits. Time For Rupert broke a blood vessel when fifth in the RSA and with Diamond Harry bagging all of his victories with at least some cut in the ground there are valid grounds for opposing both of the market princiapals at cramped odds. NACARAT thus gets my vote, and there is every chance he can win back to back renewals and give upwards of 4lb to the rest of the field given the lack of front running opposition in this field. 6/1 Paddypower, 1 pt win

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 3.15 Newmarket Tuscania e/w 14/1 PaddyPower Been pretty disappointing this year but I think she is well worth a try over a mile. Has suggested in his runs that she would be better suited by the step up in distance. Ryan Moore on board which is always a bonus plus the Stoute yard are in good form at the moment.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October I do hate going against Paul Carberry as he makes the journey for his sole ride on Muirhead, however he's already been posted up and i feel he might just get found out with weight. Another jockey that also makes the trip for one ride is jockey - A Tinkler, he gets the leg up on a horse he won back on the 11th of Oct and he won easy. Trainer C.Longsdon has been in fine form and i feel his 6yr old gelding could atleast get into some money, both trip and ground should be up his street, sure this race is up in class but he's not out it by any means. Ascot 3:40 - OSTLAND - 0.5 e/w bet @ 12/1 Betfred. Be lucky troops, enjoy your weekend.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October Amethyst Dawn - Ayr 4.05 (0.5ew 10-1 WH BOG) Very testing conditions today at Ayr, so I'm going for a horse who is proven to handle heavy going. Runner-up in this race last year on the same ground off a mark of 87 and down to 78 today. Although she did win one handicap this year, her overall form hasn't been particularly good, but on the other hand her best form is all on soft and heavy ground (3 wins and two seconds from 7 runs) and this is the first time in 2011 that she has encountered those conditions. Hard to believe that she will actually go off at 10-1.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 2:05 Newmarket - Ecliptic - Back Godolphin look to have an absolute stranglehold on thus race, with 3 of the top 4 in the Market from their stable. Frankie chooses Ecliptic and it's easy to see why really. The most consistent of the 3 and the highest rated, he came back with a bang lto. He hacked up after a substantial absence lto and having had a nice little break, he could well score again here 1pt win @ 11/10 Hills BOG

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 5:00 Newmarket - Sunrise Safari - win @ 22/1 (VC) Finding the winner of this highly competitive 22-runner contest isn't one bit easy and an unexposed, once-raced John Gosden colt currently heads the market at 9/2. He's definitely worth taking on in a race of this nature and Sunrise Safari looks to be a lively outsider if he can put his best foot forward. It's a year and a bit since Richard Fahey's 8-year-old last tasted victory (in a claimer) but he has put in plenty of performances this year to suggest that he's no forlorn hope and I expect a good showing here if all is well. Sunrise Safari now drops to a career-low mark of 75 for the first time in his 61-race career (rated 100 at peak) and I think he's very dangerously handicapped in a contest like this - as it's clear he retains plenty of ability despite his age. Fahey's charge is actually very unexposed at this 7f trip having only lined up over it on 6 occasions. His form figures are as very consistent at this trip and if he was mine I'd be keeping him to it nowadays. Sunrise Safari has actually only raced once over a stiff 7f and on that occasion he was a running-on 2nd of 9 at Beverley in June, albeit in a less competitive race. He will obviously have to step up on that here but it's not beyond the realms of possibility at all and with conditions to suit being combined with a solid gallop to run after (which he needs), a big run could be on the cards for this talented veteran. The main basis for his price is a below-form effort in a claimer last time out but that was at the speedy Windsor track over 6f and that's not a suitable test for him now - so you can overlook it. It was also run to favour those on the pace, so he never really had a chance despite staying on strongly to be nearest at the finish. A replication of Sunrise Safari's run when he was 3rd of 18 at York three starts ago would see him in with a very big chance at a more suitable track and he's being exceptionally underrated in the market. That was also off a 3lbs higher mark and the last time Lee Topliss was on board, so to see the pair reunited is a plus in my book. Topliss is an exceptional talent (huge value for the claim) and takes off a further 3lbs to leave Sunrise Safari running off a mark of 72 - bottom weight in this contest. He's potentially thrown in if producing his best here today but he is a moody type and whether he'll run to his best has to be considered a massive doubt. 22/1 is a very big price though and I'll happily play small/medium each-way stakes in the hope that he can. It's a very competitive race but he's more than up to having a say in it if all goes well and fingers crossed that it will.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 1520 wetherby 1pt win 3/1 hills has won his seasonal debut last 3 years,and this should be no exception,sound jumper and has james revealey on board, hills out on there own with 3/1, too big a price too let it pass

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October

1520 wetherby 1pt win 3/1 hills has won his seasonal debut last 3 years,and this should be no exception,sound jumper and has james revealey on board, hills out on there own with 3/1, too big a price too let it pass

Corky, presumably this is Diamond Harry!

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October Naas 4.00 Pozyc win - 6/1 Bet365 Lads Pozyc won well lto and has been in decent form all summer. Won a decent flat handicap and 2m4f on soft suits him well, because he has a lot of stamina. It took yard time to realize that, but now I expect them to reap the rewards. Idled a bit in front and possibly that played in his favour, because handicapper didn't raise him too much.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 3.00 Ascot Elsafeer beat a higher rated rival very nicely lto and looks to improving with every run. Should get a lead here and with the stable flying is a very nice price. Always seemed to find more under pressure so looks like a really genuine sort who should handle this jump in class. 1 Pt win 9/1 Corals

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October Martine's Spirit - Wolverhampton 9:20 Interestingly Haggas has a runner in the last at Wolverhampton tomorrow and it seems to have a winning chance. Left average debut run behind when 3rd of 15 at Nottingham at 66/1 behind Eshtibaak and now in a much weaker race tomorrow looks sure to go very close. WIN @ 3/1 Bet365 BOG

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 15:00 Ascot THIRD INTENTION will surely have improved for another summer on his back and although there are question marks as regards to whether he’ll settle today, they should go a decent clip and he’s looked much more mature in his past two starts, one of which was in a fairly small-field. He looks potentially high-class and should go very well in what is a decent race nonetheless. A winner on the flat in Ireland, he won on his hurdling debut at Newbury on this sort of ground (also off a break) but has missed out on another couple of victories by being too keen in the early stages and having nothing left in the finish. Even so, he showed enough promise for his trainer to pitch him in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham and his 7th was very respectable, especially as he settled well and was staying on nicely at the death. It’s likely a race that competitive came a little too soon for him as I think he’s the type to keep getting better as he matures. His last start was a bloodless victory which was encouraging as you’d have expected that result, as he was a few lbs ahead of the rest of the field anyway. He settled well anyway and that was the most encouraging part of the performance. Allotted a mark of 143, he could well be a graded horse in the very near future and I’d expect a decent run off this mark. Although coming off an absence, he’s won when fresh in the past, will enjoy the ground conditions and should get the race run to suit, especially if they go a decent clip early on. If he’s learnt to settle (which he looks to have done), then he looks a serious prospect for the coming season. Unfortunately this is a tough race and he’ll need to be close to his best to win, but many come with questions about whether this race is just being used as a stepping stone to the Greatwood. Advising an each-way wager, especially as Bet365 are paying 4 places and even though he’s only 8/1, it looks a typical “each-way to nothing”. Although, win bet for BBOTD purposes. THIRD INTENTION; Win @ 8/1 Bet365 (bog)

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October many thanks haystacks yes i meant diamond harry:$:$:$

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 7.50 Wolverhampton Defenetily the weaker of the 2 divisions with several of these struggling for form. Conry has slipped to 1lb below his last winning mark over CD but shown little form recently including over CD last time out. Lord Of Dance should appreciate this return to 7f and this course aswell where he last won off a 4lb higher mark but didnt really show enough on recent starts to suggest a win is imminent. Striker Torres is still 3lb above his last polytrack winning but is 2lb below last turf winning mark, but hard to know what to expect from him these days not the most consistent and yard quiet. The race is likely to be run at a break neck pace with Beauchamp Yorker in the lineup and that should suite Tourist who returned to form at long last last time out in a claimer, on official ratings had a bit to find but he was once rated in the low 90s won off a mark of 85, returned to polytrack clearly a positive and a good looking mark of 69 looks to good to be true if he really has returned to anything like his best! 1pts win Tourist 4/1 hills

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 230 Ascot: King Edmund EW (8/1 Bet365) Finished 4th in this last season and is 5lbs lower here, likes to be prominent and the track suits him well and is 100% fit after a spin over hurdles and then a good second at Fontwell. Sure to be therabouts and a solid EW bet on a very tricky day punting wise.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 3.25 Punchestown - Far Away So Close 1pt Win 11/4 SJ Thought 11/4 was a decent price about Far Away So Close. The bigger than expected price is probably down to his run last time where he put in a few poor jumps and fell and the last. He ran far too keenly that day and the experience should stand to him. Key thing is probably Davy Russell's ability to get him to settle better. His form over hurdles last year in a Grade 1 behind Shot From the Hip and Hidden Universe reads better than any of his rivals today. He's always been a chaser in the making and if he can settle and jump better he could be a very exciting horse to follow. Did an each way saver on Marlay Park as he ran a decent race last week on his chase debut that was won by Rivage D'Or.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October Weth 2.45 - fair along - win at 11/2 BOG bet365 Has won this race for the last 2 years and is bound to be ready for this as it appears to be his Cup Final of the market leaders Carlito Brigante ran a stinker on the all weather and was reported as 'clinically abnormal' after the race, which was only 3 weeks ago. You'd doubt they would want to be pushing him today, more of a suck it and see outing ? What a friend is a chaser and presumably having a pipe-opener Restless harry has needed a run on his seasonal debuts to daye Ashkazar looks better in handicaps Fair Along has won first time out, acts on good and good to soft and clearly like the track and gets the trip

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October 3.00 Ascot - 1pt win Kumbeshwar @ 7/1 (Bet365) Kumbeshwar's form looks rock solid from last season, and he looks capable of continuing this form into the current campaign. He won his first start over hurdles in fine style, staying on powerfully to score by over 3 lengths. He was somewhat bogged down in two starts after, managing thirds in decent races behind Houblon Des Obeaux and Zarkandar. He improved for good ground when running a superb 2nd in the Fred Winter, only going down a neck, with the front two nicely clear. Ran another cracker at Aintree when pulling miles clear with Zarkandar - but couldn't reverse the form from previously. The ground had a bit of cut though, which won't have suited down to the ground, so it was a top effort. The winner finished the season unbeaten (3-3) and that form looks good enough to win this today. Kumbeshwar finished a busy season over in Ireland, when again finding just one too good in the shape of Grandouet. He's another top class individual though who may well have beaten Kumbeshwar if not coming down at Aintree. There doesn't look to be anything of Zarkandar or Grandouet's quality in the field today, so he can deservedly get his head in front.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October Torphichen 2.30 Ascot. 1 point win. Gets in off a mark that gives him chances and has shown he can go well after a break. Trip and ground no concerns and appears to jump well enough, so has every chance of a win. 8/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October HAZAZ 2.40 Newmarket. 1 point win. Shown enough to suggest this race is within grasp, so with the trip and ground no concern and chances of improvement, I think a big run is on the cards. Nobody likes a winner at Newmarket more than Clive Britian, so hopefully we'll see that annoying, aggravating jig in the winner's enclosure! 4/1 Ladbrokes BOG

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Saturday 29th October Evening Bets

Martine's Spirit - Wolverhampton 9:20 Interestingly Haggas has a runner in the last at Wolverhampton tomorrow and it seems to have a winning chance. Left average debut run behind when 3rd of 15 at Nottingham at 66/1 behind Eshtibaak and now in a much weaker race tomorrow looks sure to go very close. WIN @ 3/1 Bet365 BOG

7.50 Wolverhampton Defenetily the weaker of the 2 divisions with several of these struggling for form. Conry has slipped to 1lb below his last winning mark over CD but shown little form recently including over CD last time out. Lord Of Dance should appreciate this return to 7f and this course aswell where he last won off a 4lb higher mark but didnt really show enough on recent starts to suggest a win is imminent. Striker Torres is still 3lb above his last polytrack winning but is 2lb below last turf winning mark, but hard to know what to expect from him these days not the most consistent and yard quiet. The race is likely to be run at a break neck pace with Beauchamp Yorker in the lineup and that should suite Tourist who returned to form at long last last time out in a claimer, on official ratings had a bit to find but he was once rated in the low 90s won off a mark of 85, returned to polytrack clearly a positive and a good looking mark of 69 looks to good to be true if he really has returned to anything like his best! 1pts win Tourist 4/1 hills