BBOTD 16th September

[hereforthep]

15.45 Newbury Harvard N Yale - 1pt win @ SP Harvard N Yale sets the standards here when beating Endowing home last time out in a maiden over this distance and should confirm the form once again hes still open to improvement when running green last time out but still got up to win well and the experience from that should help to get the win here

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 3:55 Ayr: Laylas Hero 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 When something looks too good to be true it usually is, however at 10/1 it could be worth siding with Layla's Hero. He races off 85 here after picking up a penalty for his win at Newcastle. That win was on soft ground too and his first run back at six furlongs for a while. All his previous wins with David Nicholls had been over six furlongs and this was Layla's Hero's first try at it for John Quinn and he won nicely after giving ground away at the start. He moved through the race well although he appeared to be tiring in the last half furlong. In the past Layla's Hero won two Listed races when he was rated 96 & 103. There is just a doubt looking at that final half furlong that Layla's Hero is not quite back to his old level of 103, even so, he may still have just enough in hand.

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 17:30 Newbury First write-up in a while but had a bit of spare time to relax and study the cards tomorrow. My bet comes from this listed race where 7 runners go to post. Beacon Lodge is my selection, I believe she is a group horse running at listed level today and her form does back that up with a very good place strike rate in group company. She is also the only winner of a group race that lines up today. It's fair to say she has had excuses in some of those races with the ground not being in her favour and she should get her preferred ground today which I believe to be good to soft. Her record at listed level reads 47141 and again two of those poorer efforts were in good to firm ground and both those wins came over today's trip of 7 furlongs so it could also be argued that she didn't get her ideal trip in the races she didn't place/win in. She boasts a 40% SR and 80% place strike rate over today's trip of7 furlongs. She is the highest rated horse in the race which is another positive for me, especially considering that are no unexposed types in the race. She is a previous course and distance winner and was also second over CD in a group 2 race last month. Win Beacon Lodge @ 15/8

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 14:35 Newbury SHALLOW BAY does have to overcome a 3 month absence but has gone well fresh in the past and doubt that will be much of a concern with David Pipe a dab hand at getting them right after a break. Shallow Bay last run probably came far too soon for him after a couple of promising efforts in 2011. He handles any ground so the softer conditions will probably benefit if anything, and he's dropped to a mark of 83, which looks extremely manageable if getting back to anything like his best. Quite a tough race but Fallon's booked again and he's definitely overpriced at 12/1, as I feel he should probably be around 7/1. SHALLOW BAY; Win @ 12/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 16th September Newb 5.30 - Beacon Lodge - win at 15/8 bog VC Drops down to Listed company after finishing in the first 3 in five consecutive group races, being beaten by the likes of Dubawi Gold, Exelebration and Strong Suit Has his ideal conditions today, 7 furlongs with some cut in the ground at a track he's won on before Carries no penalty for his group and listed wins under todays race conditions Looks like they've found a good oppotunity for a horse who is just below the top level

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 3:55 Ayr - Esprit De Midas - e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, 5 places) You can't get much tougher than these big-field sprint handicaps and with no less than 27 runners lining up here, it's exceptionally tough to solve the puzzle. However, it seems as if there'll be plenty of speed coming from the low-middle stalls and those drawn on the far side may well be favoured. That's what I'm hoping for anyways, as I'm siding with my old favourite Esprit De Midas, who's drawn in stall 9 and comes here representing the seemingly out-of-form Dandy Nicholls team. I don't like backing animals from stables who aren't going well but the price makes it a risk worth taking and this fellow has everything to suit - now he just needs to show he's still the same talented horse that we saw last year. Esprit De Midas hasn't shown his best since joining the Nicholls string from Kevin Ryan's yard at the beginning of May (claimed for £15k). However, he has only run 3 times since then and only once in a handicap for the Sprint King - one in which he had valid excuses (fast ground + Epsom's tricky track = defeat). If we go back and look at some of his 2010 exploits then everything looks a lot better, as he's an exceptionally useful horse on his day. His only 2010 win was over this 6f trip at Haydock when the soft ground came out to play nearly a year ago to this day and a repeat of that effort will see him go close (won shade comfortably despite numerous problems in-running). Esprit De Midas also ran a cracking 2nd to Mac's Power (strongly fancied for the Gold Cup) when they ran in a 21-runner handicap at Doncaster (on decent ground) in October '10 and that's another effort that - if repeated - would see him win this (also 4lbs lower now). It's all very easy in theory but he's a class horse on his day and there's no reason to think that he can't get involved. He comes here on the back of a comfortable, confidence-boosting win in a claimer at Caslisle last time out and despite the grade, it's not a bad run to come here on the back of (showed much more and ran above his mark - which is promising). It should do his confidence the world of good and the return to a flatter track could see him in an even better light. He also hit the front too early last time out and he'll enjoy being held onto for longer on the back of a solid pace here. This is the time of year in which it's best to catch him in the big sprint handicaps and his record suggests that he really enjoys the hustle and bustle of it all. He's well handicapped, ideally suited by ground conditions, ideally suited to a track like this and definitely suited by how the race will be run with regards to pace. It's just a question of whether Esprit De Midas will prove to be well positioned from stall 9 but he has plenty of pace-setting stablemates around & about him and this should ensure he'll get a race run to suit. Assuming he gets a nice toe into the race and isn't inconvenienced by the draw, I'm quite certain that he'll put up a bold showing. Adrian Nicholls is on board for his father and he took the reins for the first time when guiding Esprit De Midas to that comfortable claiming success last time out. That could be viewed as a positive too and hopefully this was the long-term plan for him and that he's the stables main hope of success here (seems likely to me). I certainly think he's more than up to getting involved and with 5 places being paid alongside a fancy price of 16/1, I'll play medium each-way stakes in the hope that he can run to his best. There's no doubting that he's got the ability to win, it's just a question of luck in a race like this and plenty of hope that the stable have him spot on to run his race. Anything down as far as 10/1 is an acceptable price (in my opinion of course) and hopefully the ground doesn't dry up too much, as that would be most unwelcome. Again, there's way too many dangers to list. La Zamora would interest me if she's waited with (might put a few quid on in-running if she is) and 20/1 looks a bit too big.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 3.55 Ayr - 1pt win Layla's Hero @ 9/1 (Hills) - BOG Naturally this Bronze Cup is wide open, but Layla's Hero looks well handicapped now his career looks set to return to the 6f races. 5 of his 6 career wins have come over this trip (other 5f) including 3 soft ground successes. His mark shot up to a mark of 104 having won 5 from 7 in 2009, and this mark meant it was difficult to cut ice in handicaps since. He was also campaigned mainly over further but now his mark has come back down, he looks well capable of landing this competitive event. He came back to form when a close 3rd at Redcar over 7f under today's rider, and confirmed he was back in business when winning decisively at Newcastle under similar conditions to today. Jamie Spencer was confident in the saddle before delivering a strong effort to win with plenty to spare. He won by 1 1/4l and runs off just 5lbs higher today. He's well up to winning again so long as he's positioned on the right part of the track. He previously won a 6f handicap by 4 1/2l (race worth 15k to the winner) off a mark of 83 so it's pretty concrete that he's capable of winning off 85 today. His new yard have rejuvenated him and can give John Quinn a good winner today.

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 3.15 Listowel Hisaabaat win @ 5/1 >Boyle Sports This one seems to have got in his stride over the last two runs. Dermot Welds charge won a maiden at Balinrobe in early August on fast ground and followed this up with a decent performance on soft ground at Sligo only finding the very consistent Dodging Bullets too good for him after the two of them had pulled away from the rest of the field. The performance at Sligo indicates that ground conditions will not be a problem today. Pat Smullen is replaced in the saddle by a 5lb claimer L.F.Roche who has ridden 4 winners in the last month so there should be no problem there and with more improvement to come looks value at the price.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 6.20 Wolves Be A Devil is back to the venue where he last got his head in front. Also back down in grade and with the stable on fire and a jockey who can do no wrong at the moment I am sure this one will go very close tonight. Only a few pounds higher than his only win but really likes it here and hopefully this will get me back amongst the winners. 1 Pt win 7/1 Bet365

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 0.5 e/w oscan 5/1 bet 365 15.45 newbury i will take on the odds on fav Harvard and Yale who won last time out but only got the message half a furlong from the finish,winning well but nothing spectacular,the horse i fancy to beat it is the second fav in the market oscan who is 5/1 with 365 and trading @ 6.2 on betfair so that price might well go later on today,oscan has Dettori on board,is 4 star rated with sporting and has only had one run todate winning a decent class 4,seven furlong contest 10 days ago,but winning it very smartly and finishing strongly so the extra furlong could well be a good thing

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 3.10 Newbury Dubai Prince 1pt win 11/10 paddy power dominated in ireland last year with Weld, looks to be one of the greats of the next couple of years imo. probably end up being a top jumper too with that breeding, goldolphin have obvi brought him over for a reason.

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD 16th September

0.5 e/w oscan 5/1 bet 365 15.45 newbury i will take on the odds on fav Harvard and Yale who won last time out but only got the message half a furlong from the finish,winning well but nothing spectacular,the horse i fancy to beat it is the second fav in the market oscan who is 5/1 with 365 and trading @ 6.2 on betfair so that price might well go later on today,oscan has Dettori on board,is 4 star rated with sporting and has only had one run todate winning a decent class 4,seven furlong contest 10 days ago,but winning it very smartly and finishing strongly so the extra furlong could well be a good thing

price has gone with 365 while writeing this,still 5/1 with coral

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 16th September A3.20 Fol Hollow 0.5pt E/W 40/1 William Hill This one is from the same stall that won the big handicap here yesterday and Dandy Nicholls is known for laying horses out for these races. It's often not necessarily his first string that do the business and this one has bits and pieces of form from last year which actually make it look well handicapped today. Any more rain would be welcome since this horse would appreciate it. Many of its recent runs haven't had its preferred conditions but that makes for a better price today.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 3:20 Oldjoesaid @ Ayr - Looked to be on its way back to its best until finishing 12th of 21 LTO.That could be just a minor blip and has the ground to suit today on a track it has ran well at in the past.Trainer Kevin Ryans horses have been going well here this year and if running its race is sure to be involved in the finish 0.5 pt E/W @ 16/1 Ladbrokes

[DM99]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 5.50 Wolverhampton - Come On Blue Chip (1pt WIN 12/1 VC) Had an extremely encouraging debut but since then it's been fairly moderate. A few positives: he has been posting extremely consistent Topspeed ratings for the last four runs: (57 67 57 66, and well within the ability required to win), he has been coming down the weights and this run will be his lowest mark, D'Arcy does well at this course, he is in blinkers for the first time which may very well give him the boost that he needs, and he makes his AW debut which could also give him a leg up if he takes to it.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 355 Ayr: Namwahjobo EW (20/1 Lads,VCBet) Taking a chance in the big race on this horse who is one of the few with a bit of scope for improvement. Lightly raced so far with only six runs and won twice earlier in the season including when winning here very easily in his first handicap. Beaten since but last time missed the break and was ridden by an inexperienced pilot, Tudhope is back on board today and drawn 26 could be in the right place. 20/1 is big enough to have a nibble.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 3.55 Ayr: River Falcon 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 Ladbrokes BOG I was swithering between two horses from the Goldie stable and have plumped for River Falcon. An old timer now at 11 years old, however hasn't been running at all badly from similar marks to this in recent times. Above last winning mark but if able to rekindle any of former spark is still well handicapped especially with Justin Newman claiming an additional 7lbs off top. Drawn well (hopefully) on stands side and may just get it's first win at this meeting at it's ripe old age.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 16th September Trainer Jim Goldie has some nice runners today and sure loves a winner at Hamilton and Ayr. One of his i,ve backed more than a few times is his runner in the last at Ayr. His gelding has not been out the top 3 in his last 3 runs and he should put up another very bold show today. The last time the pick was here at Ayr he was 3rd and he took to the soft ground, he does like to roll along in front so if he's left alone today for the leed he could leed from pilar to post. Ayr 5:40 - GONINODAETHAT - 0.5 e/w bet - 9/2 at Hills etc etc. Have a lucky day.

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 5:30 Newbury Bacon Lodge win (2,75) Bet365 This former C&D winner, might prove to fast for the others here. He shown a decent form, but last win was back in may. This might be the right time to get back on track. Going should not be a problem, he got 5 runs under simular conditions and all ended whit a top 3 place.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD 16th September Ayr 3.55 Lyla's Hero 1pt win - 10/1 Fred Quite a tricky race, but this fella seemed right back to form when winning lto on only his 2nd start for trainer John Quinn. 5lb penalty to carry, but still on a fantastic mark and if he runs to his juvenille form, he will go close today.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 3.55 Ayr Ursula - loves a bit of cut in the gound and has won at the track previously. Cheekpieces may spark improvement, as might the stronger pace in this large field. 33/1 Ladbrokes, 1 pt win

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 16th September Mazagee 4.45 Lingfield. 0.5 points each way. Should've been closer last time, but for finding a bit of trouble, and that form holds up quite well in context with today's race. Should be able to steer a clear passage today, so with the trip and surface not a concern and Durcan quite good around Lingfield, I'd be a player. 5/1 Bet365 (bog)

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD 16th September aw *** need to sort laptop clock :spank

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 2.10 Ayr - Daddy Warbucks ew sp Dandy Nicholls trained has had 3 runs so far and best by far was on gd / sft conditions when only beaten 2L and that run has been sandwiched in between two runs on gd frm 7L on debut and 36L lto in a class 2. Nicholls has a healthy s/r with 2yos at ayr , 5/36 with a further 9 places

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 16th September ALDO 7.20 Wolverhampton. 0.5 points each way. Has the bare form to win this and does act on the track. Needs to find a bit more on recent efforts, but a mark of 63 fits in well with today's race and I expect a very big effort. Should have the race run to suit and should therefore be fighting out the finish. 6/1 Bet365 BOG

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 16th September Quote: Originally Posted by cpo This horse has recently switched stables from Sir Michael Stoute to Alan Maccabe and looks a horse reborn! This horse won on its first start for his new stable at Leicester over 6f in first time cheekpieces. He looked outpaced at one point before eventually running on strongly and winning comfortably. Last time out at Newmarket he again looked outpaced, but stuck in behind a wall of horses he had to switch very wide and ran on strongly. This run to me suggested he could very easily get competitive here and the step up to 7f will suit. The ground will not be a problem and although he is out of the handicap, I think he will run a good race. He is running off 85 today but I think he could go on to be considerably better than his current mark. Wrote the above about this horse last time out. 3.55 Ayr Levitate 1pt win @ 33/1 Bet365 Going to give this one another chance returned to 6f here today in the Bronze Cup. Much bigger price today as he was very disappointing last time out. Every chance if getting a strong pace to run at and if he is back on song.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 16th September 5:15 Wolverhampton - Silke Top - Back Best effort so far when 2nd lto and that looked to be an above average winner for the grade. That's the best form on offer in this race and could well go one better her 1pt win @ sp

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 16th September Bh, that was definitely before the 10 minute deadline :ok

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 16th September Time is a few minutes fast for me a lot of the time too. Edit : It's 5:09 now, says 5:11 on post.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD 16th September juat leave it for now lol 40 on clock on phone :( lol