i_like_punts Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August I fancy goals in the Swansea - Wigan game. Swansea play an open, attacking brand of football which was dismantled by a classy City side on Monday. Wigan like to pass it about and would fancy their chances to pick up some valuable points in what again proves to be a difficult season. Swansea would like to make an impression in their first home league game and are likely to go for it. Fancy an open, attacking game and the overs is 2.2 @ betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mad_men Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Interesting stuff Profit Prophet. However...as you mentioned... this is not an actual 2 way market (like basketball or baseball), because if the game finishes draw...the money is coming back. So you will never ever see in asian football market odds on DNB (or 0AH) for the team who has 39% (chance of winning) and odds 2.55. What i want to say......we cant actually use these kind of calculations for this particular market. And aiming for 25% of average profit....hmmm. Using these kind of calculations it will very depend how you will set the ''true odds'' for this event . If I would use some kind of rating system what would calculate my own odds for Premier League games, then yeah..... i would look where are big difference between ''my odds'' and bookmaker odds and would make a decision. However... in my case i dont use any rating system. I''m more like ''situational'' punter rather than statistical. And imo this is really nice situation right now to fade Ars at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Maths calculated wrongly. Apologies. Amended maths below VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mad_men Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August You see, everything depends how you put up your own %s. For example, I could say that Liverpool has 60% chance of winning and then there would be some nice value based on your calculation, but then i basically would be lying to myself. At the same time ... somebody who is using some rating system could say that Liverpool has a 20% chance of winning so the odds are wrong. Different people, different opinions. Who is correct can only tell the results in long term. Premiere league lines are on of the hardest to beat in long term (from season to season), because there aren't so many ''wrong odds'' as people may think. I have seen people trying to make some kind of rating systems that will show the ''true odds'', but at the end of the day they fail miserably (not all...but biggest part). I hope your own judgement what shows Wigans 50% chance of winning will succeed in the future of this season. For me... the difference between my expectation and bookies expectation was good enough to bet on Liverpool... because i respect the odds what bookies compile for Premier league and i m realistic in this situation. Anyway... my bet was picked on situational spot and not based on ''true odds''. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zed'sDedBaby Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Gonna get this early while the price is still good: Chelsea to win to nil @ 2.10. Chelsea.. at home.. to West Brom... after drawing the opener.. nuff said! WBA did score against a weak Man Utd last weekend I just cant see it happening here again (this line has moved from 2.0 to 2.1) Bolton vs Man City: First Goal after the 25th minute @1.90. price seems right, City started very slowly against Swansea and Bolton's 4-0 win over QPR the first goal came at the very end of the 1st half.. there will be goals, they will not be early. Celtic to win to nil vs St Johnstown @ 1.66 odds are tight but Celtic only allowed 1 goal in their recent 5-1 home win against Dundee, St Johnstown dont have the attack Dundee have and I cant see them putting to much pressure on the Celtic back line Treble to win @ 6.68 2.25units:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August You see, everything depends how you put up your own %s. For example, I could say that Liverpool has 60% chance of winning and then there would be some nice value based on your calculation, but then i basically would be lying to myself. At the same time ... somebody who is using some rating system could say that Liverpool has a 20% chance of winning so the odds are wrong. Different people, different opinions. Who is correct can only tell the results in long term. Premiere league lines are on of the hardest to beat in long term (from season to season), because there aren't so many ''wrong odds'' as people may think. I have seen people trying to make some kind of rating systems that will show the ''true odds'', but at the end of the day they fail miserably (not all...but biggest part). I hope your own judgement what shows Wigans 50% chance of winning will succeed in the future of this season. For me... the difference between my expectation and bookies expectation was good enough to bet on Liverpool... because i respect the odds what bookies compile for Premier league and i m realistic in this situation. Anyway... my bet was picked on situational spot and not based on ''true odds''. Hi Mate, I do apologise, i've just re-done my maths after my mind boggling with trying to figure out how to properly factor for the return of stake in a draw scenario and....here goes You predict : Arsenal 32% Draw 29% Liverpool 37% (There's a problem in that it totals 98% so for now i'll just add it the draw. So draw is 31%) Odds needed to Breakeven Arsenal 32 % = 3.05 Draw 31 % = 3.10 Liverpool 37% = 2.70 Draw No Bet : Formula = ( Home win + Away win ) / Home win = Home DNB ( 32 + 37 ) / 32 = 2.156 Arsenal DNB ( 32 + 37 ) / 37 = 1.860 Liverpool DNB Actual Odds Arsenal 2.62 Draw 3.10 L'pool 2.75 Arsenal DNB 1.80 L'pool DNB 2.10 So according to your pre match %s Arsenal outright = No value Arsenal DNB = No value Draw = breakeven Liverpool outright = +1.5% (above expected odds) Liverpool DNB = 14% (above expected odds) Regards profit : £10 (stake) * 1.86 (odds) * 37 (% outcome success) = £688.20 £10 (stake) * 32 (% outcome loss) = £320 (£688.20 + £310) - £320 = £678.20 / 100 (events) = 6.78 % profit £10 (stake) * 2.10 (odds) * 37 (% outcome success) = £777.00 £10 (stake) * 32 (% outcome loss) = £320.00 £10 (stake) * 31 (% return draw) = £310.00 (£777 + £310) - £320 / 100 = 7.67% *£310 = returned stake from draw scenario* 7.67% - 6.78% = 0.89 % increase (when taking odds at 2.10 and not 1.86) By your own analysis you're prepared to bet even though statistically you will only gain 7.67% on average. You could out perform your own analysis/expectations but then isn't that luck more than judgement? Or you could under-perform although you do have margin for error. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Compare with my predictions in % Arsenal 40% Draw 35 % L'pool 25 % Odds needed to breakeven Arsenal 2.50 Draw 2.85 L'pool 4.00 Draw no bet : (40 + 25) / 40 = 1.625 Arsenal DNB (40 + 25) / 25 = 2.60 L'Pool DNB Value compared to actual odds : Arsenal 2.62 (expected odds 2.50) Value Draw 3.10 (expected odds 2.85) Value L'pool 2.75 (expected odds 4.00) No Value Arsenal dnb 1.80 (expected odds 1.65) Value L'pool dnb 2.10 (expected odds 2.60) No value I'll assess Arsenal dnb out of the value ones £10 * 1.80 * 40 = £720 £10 * 25 = £250 (£720 + £350) - £250 / 100 = 8.2% profit The draw £10 * 3.10 * 35 = £1085 £10 * 65 = £650 (£1085 - £650) / 100 = 4.35% profit Finally Arsenal outright £10 * 2.62 * 40 = £1048 £10 * 60 = £600 (£1048 - £600) / 100 = 4.48 profit Conclusion I maintain what i posted a few pages back, the bookies are the only winners in this match up. Look how differently we view the outcomes of the W/D/L yet neither of us can surpass an average long term profit of 8.2%! And that's what we expect/realistically hope will happen. What about accounting for unfortunate events, red cards, disallowed goals etc.. Or what if we just get this one completely wrong for various reasons, say the trends didn't stack up? We need more expected profit than this to risk our hard earnt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Swansea v Wigan Swansea 22.2% (4.50) Draw 27.8 % (3.60) Wigan 50% (2.00) (22.2 + 50 ) / 22.2 = 3.25 Swansea DNB (22.2 + 50 ) / 50 = 1.44 Wigan DNB Actual odds Swansea 2.10 (expected 4.50) no value Draw 3.25 (expected 3.60) no value Wigan 3.60 ( expected 2.00) value Swansea Dnb 1.50 (expected 3.25) Wigan Dnb 2.50 ( expected 1.44) Wigan dnb £10 * 2.50 * 50 = £1250 £10 * 22.2 = £222 draw stake return = £278 (1250 + 278) - 222 / 100 = 13.06% profit wigan outright £10 * 3.6 * 50 = £1800 £10 * 50 = £500 (£1800 - £500) / 100 = 13% Just for balance, even with alot of confidence in Wigan over the long term if my predictions are correct i'll make 13%. I target 20-25% overall over a season, so i need to out perform my prediction by an additional 7-12%! Even on a bet i'm confident in backing. EDIT: These are based on singles analysis. Doubles/Treble system hopefully achieves the % target i'm looking for by combining 'personal strong' bets with each other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Just to add I don't think there is a jack who's not mentioning Martinez returning in the same sentence as "our first home game." I'm not betting but it's worth noting the added pressure here. Swansea may have been on the end of a 4-0 drubbing, opening game but are people forgetting they were away to man city? The first half performance saw the jacks midfield dictate play for long periods. I'd expect a slightly different approach with the front line not looking quite so isolated. I think the high tempo approach also back fired with fitness levels dropping as each goal went in. With a full house of fans willing them on, they should press Wigan well. Swansea will get some good results this year but judging them on one game away at a team who will galling for the title and in Europe may bite some on the arse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mad_men Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August The newest information says Tomas Rosicky, who played with a groin problem against Udinese in the Champions League on Tuesday night, is a doubtfull for the clash against Liverpool. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, an 18-year-old whose experience also does not extend beyond League One level, could also feature against Liverpool Pretty bad news for Arsenal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Does anyone know where I can find a nice site with match stats? I wanted to check how many goal attempts Udinese had against Arsenal? cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Does anyone know where I can find a nice site with match stats? I wanted to check how many goal attempts Udinese had against Arsenal? cheers You can get the CL match stats on the uefa website anyways. I'm sure there is probably a site for all such stats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberWolf Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Wolves vs Fulham. Both teams to score @ evens w William Hill. As a Wolves fan, and other fans will back me up I hope, I am happy with these odds. We (Wolves) always seem to score at the moment, yet we always seem to concede. With Fulham's infamous away form, I am confident of a Wolves goal, but I am also confident that Zamora and Johnson will cause our defense troubles and nick a goal at some point. Look at Wolves's home games towards the back end of last season - it speaks for itself. By the way I am genuinely trying not to be biased (although I fancy a 3-1 win!) Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mad_men Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Does anyone know where I can find a nice site with match stats? I wanted to check how many goal attempts Udinese had against Arsenal? cheers Arsenal vs Udinese Goal attempts 6 vs 12 Shots on Goal 3 vs 5 Shots off Goal 3 vs 7 Free Kicks 13 vs 25 Corner Kicks 6 vs 7 Fouls 22 vs 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Arsenal vs Udinese Goal attempts 6 vs 12 Shots on Goal 3 vs 5 Shots off Goal 3 vs 7 Free Kicks 13 vs 25 Corner Kicks 6 vs 7 Fouls 22 vs 11 thanks mate! so this convinces me in backing Liverpool on Sat much has been said about that already in the thread, and my reasoning is pretty much the same. I'll go for Liverpool goals, as I think this Arsenal defence is really leaky, but still the Gunners have some attacking potential so a straight Liverpool win is not as probable as some goals for the Reds. Liverpool goals >1.5 @2.75v7/10 pts Liverpool goals >2.5 @7 2/10 pts Liverpool goals >3.5 @21 0.5/10 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icecreamdreams Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Swansea v Wigan Swansea 22.2% (4.50) Draw 27.8 % (3.60) Wigan 50% (2.00) (22.2 + 50 ) / 22.2 = 3.25 Swansea DNB (22.2 + 50 ) / 50 = 1.44 Wigan DNB Actual odds Swansea 2.10 (expected 4.50) no value Draw 3.25 (expected 3.60) no value Wigan 3.60 ( expected 2.00) value Swansea Dnb 1.50 (expected 3.25) Wigan Dnb 2.50 ( expected 1.44) Wigan dnb £10 * 2.50 * 50 = £1250 £10 * 22.2 = £222 draw stake return = £278 (1250 + 278) - 222 / 100 = 13.06% profit wigan outright £10 * 3.6 * 50 = £1800 £10 * 50 = £500 (£1800 - £500) / 100 = 13% Just for balance, even with alot of confidence in Wigan over the long term if my predictions are correct i'll make 13%. I target 20-25% overall over a season, so i need to out perform my prediction by an additional 7-12%! Even on a bet i'm confident in backing. EDIT: These are based on singles analysis. Doubles/Treble system hopefully achieves the % target i'm looking for by combining 'personal strong' bets with each other. This just baffles my poor brain! I don't know if everyone can understand these but wow u guys work on different schemes to me! Maybe we all do this to an extent in our heads but my god if I did this for all of my bets I'd be Einstein at maths! Anyone who says arsenal aren't shaky at the mo is either lying, bullshitting or their surname is wenger. Definitely best bet seems Liverpool to score at least one goal. As I've said for years wenger can't buy instant team changers so this year can be forgotten about. Why the hell would he loan vela out again when he's a better finisher than chamakh and gervinho il never know. I feel for vela never given long chance yet he persists with diaby n squillachi n the keepers who are nothing short of crap. Arshavin is getting on now too, rvp always injured for 10 games. Dire situation. Arsenal to be relegated 10,000/1 it's looking strong! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tetraz Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August My first post here :) hi to everyone first :P Arsenal FC - Liverpool As everyone already stated here I will put my hopes on liv'pool. I don't need to state my reasons obviously as everyone else has already said everything about arsenal and liv'pool. I also think both teams have more attacking potential and not really solid defenses, so over 2.5 seems like a good option too. Liverpool to win @ 2,9 (bwin) Over 2.5 @ 1,95 (bwin) Aston Villa - Blackburn Rovers I see villa as one of the weaker teams in this season, with blackburn not far behind them. I expect a defensive minded blackburn team, and villa doesn't really have the quality to score more than 1 goal imo. Add the pressure from fans towards the home manager I think this match won't produce much goals... 1:1 at max imo. Under 2.5 @ 1,91 (bwin) gl to everyone :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August This just baffles my poor brain! I don't know if everyone can understand these but wow u guys work on different schemes to me! Maybe we all do this to an extent in our heads but my god if I did this for all of my bets I'd be Einstein at maths! Anyone who says arsenal aren't shaky at the mo is either lying, bullshitting or their surname is wenger. Definitely best bet seems Liverpool to score at least one goal. As I've said for years wenger can't buy instant team changers so this year can be forgotten about. Why the hell would he loan vela out again when he's a better finisher than chamakh and gervinho il never know. I feel for vela never given long chance yet he persists with diaby n squillachi n the keepers who are nothing short of crap. Arshavin is getting on now too, rvp always injured for 10 games. Dire situation. Arsenal to be relegated 10,000/1 it's looking strong! Hi Icecreamdreams, I don't mind walking you through it, if it may be useful. But yes it's impossible to do it for all the games, only a computer program could do it efficently really. The first part is converting your feelings into %s for the market outcome. The second part is just working out if those %s stack up with your initial confidence in terms of profit. Of course the first part is the most important, as it's the accuracy of you being able to judge the variables that will decide if your successful. The second part just works out how much margin for error you have in the long term. So to use Swansea v Wigan again. I've considered everything about the match, form,team formation,tactics,players etc...and i've decided that a fair %s would be. Swansea 22.2% Draw 27.8% Wigan 50% Obviously everyone will have different numbers here.Like Aliando fancies Swansea for eg. We then convert those %s in decimals and compare with the odds available to see if they meet or surpass our expectations. So the actual odds are Swansea 2.10 ( but i expect 4.50 or 22.2%) so no value draw 3.25 ( i expect 3.60 or 27.8% chance) so no value Wigan 3.60 ( i expect 2.00 or 50%) so value Then we just work out how much the value markets compared to our own feelings (%s) give us profit or looking at it another way margin of error (long term). We obviously have to hope we have analyised it correctly on average. SO Wigan Outright £10 (your stake) * 3.60 (actual odds) * 50 (number of outcomes i expect it to happen) = £1800 £10 ( your stake) * 50 ( number times i will lose the bet) = £500 Then we deduct the loss from the return and divide by the total events we've bet in ( 50 + 50 = 100) £1800 - £500 = £1300 / 100 (events) = 13.0% So i have a 13% margin of error in my predictions. As a general rule i only really bet on outcomes where my predictions = double figure profit or margin of error. But just to emphasise again, the bit which determines your success is the pre analysis, the maths after is just working out the margin/profit by those thoughts. Mad men felt Liverpool DNB is a best bet but by his own predictions he will generate around 7% or roughly 7% margin of error. Whereas i felt one would need a better % profit/margin to justify such confidence. That in my case being 13% profit for Wigan DNB. So i suppose you also have to set a guideline margin/profit. In my case, once the math is done and profit determined: 0-5% = No bet 6-9% = considering but shouldn't really bet 10-15% = Great value 16-25% = Jump in big (these are rare events in my experience) So 13% Wigan DNB is one of the best bets i can find more often than not. Again, compared to my own analysis. Doesn't mean it will win, but hopefully over 100 games it will average out. But if i am bad at putting the variables into %s to then analyise then at least i've got 13% margin to play with and hopefully by time that gets swallowed up (back at breakeven) i've learnt i'm crap and give up lol :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Bloody hell, its like being back at maths school!!! I think people go overboard on percentages like the conversation above!! For me finding value is easy... I think Wigan are overpriced, end of story, i dont need a 27 page mathematics exercise to figure it out! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August My first post here :) hi to everyone first :P Arsenal FC - Liverpool As everyone already stated here I will put my hopes on liv'pool. I don't need to state my reasons obviously as everyone else has already said everything about arsenal and liv'pool. I also think both teams have more attacking potential and not really solid defenses, so over 2.5 seems like a good option too. Liverpool to win @ 2,9 (bwin) Over 2.5 @ 1,95 (bwin) Aston Villa - Blackburn Rovers I see villa as one of the weaker teams in this season, with blackburn not far behind them. I expect a defensive minded blackburn team, and villa doesn't really have the quality to score more than 1 goal imo. Add the pressure from fans towards the home manager I think this match won't produce much goals... 1:1 at max imo. Under 2.5 @ 1,91 (bwin) gl to everyone :) :welcome Tetraz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BookiesNo1Enemy Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Anyone think Villa v Blackburn has got DRAW written all over it? Mcleish is renowned for a defensive style, he has players at his disposal that don't really suit his preferred style. Add to that, it's first home game in charge, a hell of alot of pressure will be put on him to get a win and perform given the fact most Villa fans were against his appointment. Blackburn may have a few issues and i'd expect them to be fighting relegation this season but at the end of last season they showed us that they can grind results out. Arsenal away 0-0, West ham (drew i think), wolves won 2-3. The draw does seem to scream of value and maybe 1-1 too in the correct score market. I;ll be taking this on along with wigan dnb I was also thinking about Sunderland as Bruce always starts a season well in both his times at Wigan and Sunderland but with it being a local derby, i'm giving it a miss. Next Sunderland home game though is worth a good look imo. Premiership picks Wigan DNB @ 2.60 Villa Draw @ 3.30 Good luck everyone :hope Hi prophet, Villa fan here... I must point out from the start as I have many times on this forum that I rarely bet on or against my side apart from exceptional cases, this weekend appears to be one of those rare times. We opened the season with a pleasing point against a Fulham side which has been in competitive action for a few weeks now due to the ludicrous early start of the Europa league. It was important for Mcleish not to get off to a losing start and the first game been away from Villa Park may have helped. Now comes the time, and opportunity, to cement a solid opening few game with a win against an uninspiring Blackburn side that could be without 3 very influential players- Samba, Nelson and Emerton. We have a very solid home record against Blackburn too, apart from the truly shocking 1997-98 season where we lost 4-0 at home and 5-0 away to a Chris Sutton inspired team. since then we have recorded 3 home wins on the spin plus victory 6-4 in the Carling cup semi final. Although pre-season is an unreliable tool to use in competitive fixtures we also beat Blackburn 1-0 in the Hong Kong cup over the summer with Darren Bent getting the goal. That brings me to my next point, Darren Bent tends to start the season with a glut of goals and I fully expect Mcleish to go with a more attacking, fluid line-up. Bent should be up top supported by N'Zogbia and, hopefully, Albrighton. In midfield a solid 3 of Petrov, Delph and possibly Makoun restored to the starting line-up. The Back 4 should be those used at Fulham and Given is expected to overcome a slight groin strain. I will be back with more shortly when confirmed team news is available but I will be looking to follow Villa with large confidence this weekend, Bent anytime scorer will also come into my thinking. Also just to point out that I am my own teams worst critic so thia is not a punt for my own team, rather a considered bet that seems very good value. Good Luck all in your bets :hope :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Bloody hell, its like being back at maths school!!! I think people go overboard on percentages like the conversation above!! For me finding value is easy... I think Wigan are overpriced, end of story, i dont need a 27 page mathematics exercise to figure it out! :lol Each to there own i suppose mate. I wouldn't say there's any right or wrong way of going about things. If in the end you profit, you've succeeded. But for me, being a analytical kind of person and bit of a perfectionist i like to know exactly what it is i'm doing and why i'm doing it. I find it helps having the finer details the most when we go on an inevitable bad run and get abit disillusioned. I've made 2.35% so far this season, utter shit but i know i just need to keep at it and i'll end up at my targets over the season. If not and it's looking like nothing will fall for me and the cash pot is running low, then in those intances i stick to bigger margin bets and take less risks while i get back on track. As i say, everyone has their different methods but i think there's alot of added value and confidence by taking the time to keep track of your bets and analyise them alittle. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delahicka Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August All this carry-on about a few lads trying to kick a ball into a net :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Hi prophet, Villa fan here... I must point out from the start as I have many times on this forum that I rarely bet on or against my side apart from exceptional cases, this weekend appears to be one of those rare times. We opened the season with a pleasing point against a Fulham side which has been in competitive action for a few weeks now due to the ludicrous early start of the Europa league. It was important for Mcleish not to get off to a losing start and the first game been away from Villa Park may have helped. Now comes the time, and opportunity, to cement a solid opening few game with a win against an uninspiring Blackburn side that could be without 3 very influential players- Samba, Nelson and Emerton. We have a very solid home record against Blackburn too, apart from the truly shocking 1997-98 season where we lost 4-0 at home and 5-0 away to a Chris Sutton inspired team. since then we have recorded 3 home wins on the spin plus victory 6-4 in the Carling cup semi final. Although pre-season is an unreliable tool to use in competitive fixtures we also beat Blackburn 1-0 in the Hong Kong cup over the summer with Darren Bent getting the goal. That brings me to my next point, Darren Bent tends to start the season with a glut of goals and I fully expect Mcleish to go with a more attacking, fluid line-up. Bent should be up top supported by N'Zogbia and, hopefully, Albrighton. In midfield a solid 3 of Petrov, Delph and possibly Makoun restored to the starting line-up. The Back 4 should be those used at Fulham and Given is expected to overcome a slight groin strain. I will be back with more shortly when confirmed team news is available but I will be looking to follow Villa with large confidence this weekend, Bent anytime scorer will also come into my thinking. Also just to point out that I am my own teams worst critic so thia is not a punt for my own team, rather a considered bet that seems very good value. Good Luck all in your bets :hope :cheers Hi Bookie... Thanks for the info. The main reason i've gone with the draw is my concern that you wont score more than one. Looking at the H2H, since 2008, you've played 8 times and although the W/d L record is 6-1-1 you've conceded in all 8 of those games!. For me that's quite a stat especially when considering Blackburns good away form at the end of last season and Blackburns tendancy to draw alot of games both home and away at the end of last season. Add to that, the pressure of a new manager, whos disliked and his defensive style, i conclude the value is in the draw or 1-1. I can see lots of reasons for a Villa win but at 1.75 there's no value for me. I put it at Villa 40% (2.50 needed) Draw 40% (2.50 needed) Blackburn 20% (5.00 needed) The draw is 3.50 £10 * 3.50 * 40 = £1400 £10 * 60 = £600 £1400 - £600 = £800 / 8% (expected profit or margin of error) So by my own analysis methods, it's a borderline bet for me. But in this case it's one i'm happy to risk taking given it's the first home game and the fans are so against Mcleish. If this was another month or two into the season i'd probably leave alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Villa v Blackburn Both teams to score is priced at at 1.72 with Bet365. Blackburn have scored in their last 8 visits and only 1/8 has one team not scored, that being villa 0 v 1 blackburn. It obviously screams of value but i'm a touch hesitant given that Mcleish is just so defensive and if anything he has the defenders for his style more than the midfielders/forwards. Not decided myself on it, but thought it was worth highlighting for others to consider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BookiesNo1Enemy Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Hi Bookie... Thanks for the info. The main reason i've gone with the draw is my concern that you wont score more than one. Looking at the H2H, since 2008, you've played 8 times and although the W/d L record is 6-1-1 you've conceded in all 8 of those games!. For me that's quite a stat especially when considering Blackburns good away form at the end of last season and Blackburns tendancy to draw alot of games both home and away at the end of last season. Add to that, the pressure of a new manager, whos disliked and his defensive style, i conclude the value is in the draw or 1-1. I can see lots of reasons for a Villa win but at 1.75 there's no value for me. I put it at Villa 40% (2.50 needed) Draw 40% (2.50 needed) Blackburn 20% (5.00 needed) The draw is 3.50 £10 * 3.50 * 40 = £1400 £10 * 60 = £600 £1400 - £600 = £800 / 8% (expected profit or margin of error) So by my own analysise methods, it's a borderline bet for me. But in this case it's one i'm happy to risk taking given it's the first home game and the fans are so against Mcleish. If this was another month or two into the season i'd probably leave alone. Yeah I see your reasoning mate, I dont usually put my thoughts on a match outcomes in percentages but will for you ;), Villa 55% Draw 30% Blackburn 15% This is based on team news, squad analysis, H2H records and I hate to say it 'gut feeling'. Mcleish was not a popular appointment but there will be very little fans backlash in this game if the team starts well on the pitch. The fans want a passionate manager that puts a team on the pitch that plays how the fans see fit. For Villa that means Bent as the tip of an attacking trio. Many would like to see Albrighton in for Heskey but the fact that Mcleish played 3 strikers away against Fulham might just show that it was the players that he had at his disposal for Blues which dictated the way his team played,not his choice. I really do fancy a strong Villa win, again not because i am a fan but because of the information and close studying at first hand of the way both sides have conducted themselves. The likes of Albrighton go under the radar of many fans other than those of Villa but from first hand experience we have a very exciting, talented youth set up which excel in these types of games. My prediction is a 3-1 Villa win and Bent to score at least once. The team does have goals in it and hopefully tomorrow proves it. Good Luck with your other bets mate, just hope your wrong about this one :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AHughes Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Ok, for people jumping on the "weak arsenal team" bandwagon just because 2 debutants will play, cast your mind back to when these fought at the Emirates last season and Liverpool had Spearing,Shelvey,Robinson and Flanagan on the pitch at one point. Not much experience in that lot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Ok' date=' for people jumping on the "weak arsenal team" bandwagon just because 2 debutants will play, cast your mind back to when these fought at the Emirates last season and Liverpool had Spearing,Shelvey,Robinson and Flanagan on the pitch at one point. Not much experience in that lot[/quote'] It is a weak Arsenal team! Very weak at that! And Liverpool are much stronger this year on paper! Arsenal can barley field a team... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AHughes Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August It is a weak Arsenal team! Very weak at that! And Liverpool are much stronger this year on paper! Arsenal can barley field a team... Yes, I know that. Am even a Liverpool fan, just pointing out that Liverpool should win but just because Arsenal are using a few inexperinced players means that they're there to impress Wenger. As Robinson/Flanagan/Spearing did last year at the Emirates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterFC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Hmm' date=' well of course it will affect them if their 2 both first choice centre backs are out. Rafael is also out with Evra a 50% chance of playing, which means they will probably line up with Evans - Smalling - Jones - Fabio, not much of an experienced back line playing against Crouch,Modric,VDV and Defoe. And with the shakey De Gea behing them they could be a culprit.[/quote'] and bale. my money is on over 3.5 @ 7/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mandrew420 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August I decided to go for a DNB on Liverpool odds 2 @BET365 - IMO no reasoning needed...weakened arsenal side, new strong singings for liverpool, arsenals poor performances during past 2 matches etc. :cigar Than my second bet is a double on a double chance LIVERPOOL or DRAW + M.CITY to win...odds around 2,7 @BET365 Man city had a strong entry against a newly promoted side which wasnt hard. During the match I noticed that the signals and teamwork works well which is a BIG + in any match and If they keep the teamwork going with their offensive approach bolton shouldnt be a big deal. :p Man city is a rich team with a quality squad that is a candidate for the top 3 in premier league so hopefully they will fulfill my expectations. IMO the game will go smth like 0:2/0:3 for Man City and I see good value in 1,8 odds, but i am a bit greedy and decided to pump em up a bit with a safe double chance which is at 1,5 where i can see gr8 value. Any opinions??? I hope that I aint gonna be surprised by some heroic effort of RvP...:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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