Cornell Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Sport Tennis Event Federer vs. Lopez Selection Federer (-9.5) GH (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 24/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 3.75 Reasoning Well, these two players have played against each other recently and it is already obvioulsy that the final result, a very closed one has all the influence on our today's line offer. Feliciano Lopez has played a very very good game against Roger Federer at Madrid and there can't be any doubts about that as he managed to play three tiebreaks against Federer. So, from the last game point of view I can understand today's bookies offer, but lets not forget that tennis is a sport based on form where everything can change so fast and only those essential facts remains the base which can make a logic after all. Roger Federer is a much much better player than Feliciano Lopez who purely do not possess those qualities for being a dangerous claycourter, Felicano can play better on faster surfaces like grass or hard, but on clay his level is clear not the same. Feliciano had a good run recently and this in one of those important reasons for why he is rated with only this game handicap and not higher, but as I have mentionated lets not forget about the stability of a player in a long run. Besides serve, Feliciano will not have any really dangerous weapon against Federer. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornell Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Sport Tennis Event Novak Djokovic vs. Thiemo de Bakker Selection Thiemo de Bakker (+8.5) GH (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 24/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 3.50 Reasoning Well, in this game there are rather two facts that have the most influence on these odds and lines. First of all there is about Novak Djokovic's fantastic run, fantastic indeed, secondly there is about Thiemo de Bakker's recently results and form. Well, speaking about Novak Djokovic a lot things can be said about this young and so talented guy who after all could find the key to the stability in a long run, thing that only champoins can do. So, of course that Novak Djokovic is in his best ever form at the moment, but playing against a player like Thiemo de Bakker and to offer this so high line I will say that it is already a litter bit too exaggerated as first of all despite the fact that Djokovic did proved and showed a very good stability in a long period already, anyway I will say that Nocak still didn't showed what Rafa has done tournament after tournament, when the spaniard was losing only very few games by during the French Open. With other words, Djokovic is not a player whose qualities are so specific for a ideal claycourter. So, playing against Thiemo de Bakker who can play great tennis on clay, remember the last year at French Open his game against Tsonga or Garcia-Lopez, two very good games. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icecreamdreams Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Have to agree with the gasquet calls to beat stepanek No one else feeling fed 3-0 v lopez?? Its better than 1/2 and i saw nadal spank lopez bit ago. Defo one to look in to. Also liking wozniack to win 2-0. Namigata isnt great and wozniak on the up for sure. Djokovic to cover handicaps always good to look into as de bakker not the best. Also a lil something on my old mate dustin brown to beat l mayer! Brown has chance v most and i like watching him so worth few quids Will look into it and write a bit more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open A few more for me today, a couple of which have already been mentioned here. Feliciano Lopez v Roger Federer - Roger Federer -6.5 games @ 1.87 with Pinnacle 4pts I think the bookies are overreacting to Lopez's performance a few weeks ago in Madrid, where Lopez took it to a final set tie-break. Lopez is a poor operator at the French in general, losing to Reister in R1 last year. That's the icing on a cake of bad results here. Evidently he comes here in decent shape but conditions are much slower at Roland Garros than they are in Madrid. He won't get so many cheap points on serve. Federer's not been at his best for some time but the Slams are his be-all and end-all at present, and he'll be taking this very seriously. I fancy him to get a break in each set, and with a bit of luck, that should cover the line. Bear in mind that Federer leads the H2H 8-0 ... handicap has dropped from -7 games too, so right time to strike. Leonardo Mayer v Dustin Brown - Dustin Brown +4.5 games @ 1.909 with Pinnacle 3pts Another line that has moved, this time from +4 games. Mayer in his pomp (ie 18 months ago) would have been a good investment but he's still scrabbling back from injury. Came through the qualifiers well enough but this match will be tricky. Brown is unorthodox. Big serve and loves a rampage to the net. His tactics have foxed Wawrinka and almost Stepanek in recent weeks on clay and he's the sort of man who will battle all the way as he's openly admitted he's looking to earn more cash to fund his career. Mayer's not phenomenal on return but has a good serve too - I imagine this being a fairly close affair. Brown could nick it but the line isn't beyond the realms of possibility either and more plausible. Worth a small investment. Thomas Schoorel v Maximo Gonzalez - Maximo Gonzalez +2.5 games @ 1.943 with Pinnacle 3pts I am surprised to see such a generous plus on Gonzalez. Schoorel's not going to have it all his own way here. This is his first Slam tie and he is still very inexperienced against dirt rats who have been there and done it. Gonzalez is such a player. Injury has seen him plummet down the rankings but he's a very competitive and gutsy individual who loves a battle on the red brick. This is a good chance for him to gain some ranking points. Not the best on serve but should dominate any rallies. Schoorel has been horsed a few times by Tour level players and it wouldn't surprise me to see him fall short here. Handicap adds a smidgeon of insurance. Another for modest stakes but worth a look. Richard Gasquet v Radek Stepanek - Under 35 games @ 1.943 with Pinnacle 3pts I echo the sentiments of many in this match. Gasquet's playing very well at present and comes to the event high on confidence and in form. Stepanek's the complete opposite and isn't really a clay courter. His injury woes have been mentioned already and I think he'll struggle to deal with Gasquet's game. The Frenchman's backhand is working a treat at the moment and he's totally dominating players ranked beneath him. Stepanek might keep it tight in terms of games won and that's what worries me on the handicap. 35 games appears too high considering the contrasting fortunes and form of each player. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinningTipster Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Hi guys, 4 picks for the French Open today and tomorrow: ATP DJOKOVIC-9.5GAMES HANDICAP TO DEFEAT DE BAKKER @ 1.55 on betfair ATP CHELA TO DEFEAT SMYCZEK BY 2:0 SETS @ 1.55 on expekt WTA WOZNIAK-5.5GAMES HANDICAP TO DEFEAT NAMIGATA @ 1.8 on bet365 WTA HRADECKA TO DEFEAT SEVASTOVA @ 1.5 on betfred Obviously, no chance for De Bakker in this match and he does not have a big serve to win a lot of service games. You would expect a very easy win here for Djokovic. Chela is a still a very good clay court player. Just one match for Smyczek on European clay in his career ever (!) and you can't learn moving and playing on clay so fast unless you somebody like Michael Chang. Namigata like Smyczek has no experience playing on clay and Wozniak is a good powerful player who won 3 qualifying matches here. Expect to be an easy win for her. Hradecka is in great form winning a lot of matches this year, playing both powerfully and consistently. Sevastova is struggling with injuries and form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homunculus Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Berdy all over the place, hahaha. I knew that to bet on him is bad idea in the very moment I placed it. However, if Robert takes the 4th set (he leads 4:2 now), there is a good chance Berdy will retire :-) edit. Berdy took it to the full distance and serves first in the decider. In the optimal scenario he will get broken immediately, gets a medical timeout, and leaves Paris the very same evening. edit2: GSM Robert LOL Berdych -8 lost early, but he even managed to lose the match itself :rollin. I swear I'll be damned if I ever bet on Berdy again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckets Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open I know its not much of a price but i have gone for kvitova to beat Arn @1.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckets Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open double on bartoli and peng Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homunculus Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open double on bartoli and peng Bartoli? The same Bartoli that retired two days ago in a WTA final in her own country? I'sd say this is rather risky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open I know its not much of a price but i have gone for kvitova to beat Arn @1.1 double on bartoli and peng Need some reasoning to go with these bets mate, otherwise they'll just get deleted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flipskee Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open haha monfils fkin clown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckets Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open I know its not much of a price but i have gone for kvitova to beat Arn @1.1 Kvitova has a good chance of wining this tournament, Arn's best recent result came against kuznetsova who was completely out of form at the time, that result flattered arn and i would say 1.1 is a small price but in this case its justified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckets Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Need some reasoning to go with these bets mate' date=' otherwise they'll just get deleted.[/quote'] Just think they are too strong for the opposition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homunculus Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Kvitova has a good chance of wining this tournament' date=' Arn's best recent result came against kuznetsova who was completely out of form at the time, that result flattered arn and i would say 1.1 is a small price but in this case its justified.[/quote'] Kvitova probably wins against Greta Arn, but winning the tournament? I don't think so, and the reason is health issues. This tournament is very physically demanding, and Kvitova had troubles with her hip last week. It will eventually come through in the least suitable moment. edit: BTW, nice moment to take tatishilli LIVE. 2-2 in the second set, but Bartoli is due to lose. I took it erlier at 2.0, now its about 1.45 edit2: This Bartoli LIVE looks like a classical jyinx :\. Berdych -8 failed, Tatishvili is going to fail in a moment, I live solely thanks to some tailed bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Onto tomorrow then. Women's prices aren't up yet but taken two on the men's side in the meantime. Considered the Hanescu handicap but something in my head just put me off it so I'll leave that one alone. Richard Gasquet vs Radek Stepanek- Gasquet-6.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) I'll back the Frenchman to win this one with a bit to spare given the form he's in an having home advantage. Stepanek has been struggling with a leg injury since Munich where he retired and this is his first match back so there's no guarantees over his fitness. Before that, I saw a couple of his games and wasn't overly impressed. He was creamed by Raonic and Murray, whilst against Dustin Brown, he was seemingly cruising to a straight sets win but he let the crowd get on his back and very nearly choked his way to a defeat. Tomorrow the crowd will very much be in Gasquet's side which in my opinion plays a significant part in this meeting. Stepanek doesn't cope win the crowd against him particularly well, and as we see at Wimbledon with Murray, having the crowd behind you on a big stage like this is a massive boost. Gasquet held Nadal firm in the first set last week, and beat Berdych in the round previous to that giving him some decent form to take into this week. If he repeats that, he'll get his first win over Stepanek and he should do that fairly comfortably in my estimations. Janko Tipsarevic vs Brian Dabul- Tipsarevic-7.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Just see the Serb having too much quality to see Dabul off in this one. Dabul is mainly a challenger player and even in those he has struggled this year. The most alarming thing that hits me with the Argentinian is the amount of times he has retired of late. Three retirements in the past six events for Dabul just says to me that his preparation and fitness isn't completely there. In his last match he again retired and hasn't played since then so he will struggle to come to terms with Tipsarevic after a period out of the game. The Serb got to the quarters over in Belgrade a couple of weeks back and had some court time over in Dusseldorf last week where he won one of his two matches and ran Kohlschreiber close in the other. The quality should eventually prevail here and I'd be suprised if Tipsarevic, despite his erratic behaviour, didn't get this one done with some ease. I followed you on Tipsarevic today and doubled it up with under 18.5 games Arn v Kvitova with a high stake :) I did'nt follow on Gasquet but have taken under 37.5 games in-play and now it's 2-0 Gasquet so it looks good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icecreamdreams Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Berdy all over the place, hahaha. I knew that to bet on him is bad idea in the very moment I placed it. However, if Robert takes the 4th set (he leads 4:2 now), there is a good chance Berdy will retire :-) edit. Berdy took it to the full distance and serves first in the decider. In the optimal scenario he will get broken immediately, gets a medical timeout, and leaves Paris the very same evening. edit2: GSM Robert LOL Berdych -8 lost early, but he even managed to lose the match itself :rollin. I swear I'll be damned if I ever bet on Berdy again. my god mate i wasnt happy with him! so glad i havew betfair and managed to get a lay at 1.3 when it was 2-1 sets and 2-0 to robert..i remembered reading on here berdych was a choker (i hadnt seen it before) so thought sod this lay is the way. but i agree on the never betting on him again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Onto tomorrow then. Women's prices aren't up yet but taken two on the men's side in the meantime. Considered the Hanescu handicap but something in my head just put me off it so I'll leave that one alone. Richard Gasquet vs Radek Stepanek- Gasquet-6.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10)- WIN Janko Tipsarevic vs Brian Dabul- Tipsarevic-7.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10)- WIN Both did the job comfortably in the end. Tipsarevic overcame a tricky first set before running riot. Gasquet wasn't terribly convincing but was too much for Stepanek in the end. Shocking to see Berdych crumble from two sets up though. Only watched the first two sets so when I saw that Robert had clawed it back I couldn't believe my eyes lol. Anyways, +7.36 for the day, taking me to +17.15 after the opening couple of days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Both did the job comfortably in the end. Tipsarevic overcame a tricky first set before running riot. Gasquet wasn't terribly convincing but was too much for Stepanek in the end. Shocking to see Berdych crumble from two sets up though. Only watched the first two sets so when I saw that Robert had clawed it back I couldn't believe my eyes lol. Anyways, +7.36 for the day, taking me to +17.15 after the opening couple of days. Have only been 2 days? Couple of days sounds more like 3 or a few more. I only had one correct bet of my own today. De Bakker v Djokovic under 8.5 first set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Have only been 2 days? Couple of days sounds more like 3 or a few more. I only had one correct bet of my own today. De Bakker v Djokovic under 8.5 first set. Couple=2 Few=3 That's what it means in my books ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
READ24 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open a couple is two haha? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icecreamdreams Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open gone for few accumulators again.. no berdych to mess them up this time! murray 3-0 - should have too much for a guy ive never heard of. is playing well at the moment and taken the big guys to good games recently. i know he can lose a few servicce games but im sure murray can break back etc to pull through in three nadal 3-0 - obvious really. isner is a joke on clay..if not all surfaces. i really dont rate him against anyone who can return better then average. no way will nadal mess this up..touch wood azarenka 2-0 - really like the way azarenka is playing and hlavackova ive only seen once but wasnt much to worry about. got azarenka to make good progress here so fingers crossed clisters 2-0 - she doesnt play much tennis i know but shes still a monster when she gets in the groove. hoping for a wozniacki type game here. im sure i bet against yakimova week or so again and it happenend so clisters should be cool they was 1.2/1 added on soderling 3-0 - bit dodgy on this one but soderlings serve should be enough to beat becker. only seen BB a few times but wasnt that great and soderling could smash him in one set then see his head drop and game over. that was 1.9/1 and added hradecka to win aswell - impressed me last few weeks beating few decent players so sticking with her. sevastova i havent seen but not great stats from what i read and is ranked lower so should lose! that was 3/1 all with william hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open gone for few accumulators again.. no berdych to mess them up this time! murray 3-0 - should have too much for a guy ive never heard of. is playing well at the moment and taken the big guys to good games recently. i know he can lose a few servicce games but im sure murray can break back etc to pull through in three nadal 3-0 - obvious really. isner is a joke on clay..if not all surfaces. i really dont rate him against anyone who can return better then average. no way will nadal mess this up..touch wood azarenka 2-0 - really like the way azarenka is playing and hlavackova ive only seen once but wasnt much to worry about. got azarenka to make good progress here so fingers crossed clisters 2-0 - she doesnt play much tennis i know but shes still a monster when she gets in the groove. hoping for a wozniacki type game here. im sure i bet against yakimova week or so again and it happenend so clisters should be cool they was 1.2/1 added on soderling 3-0 - bit dodgy on this one but soderlings serve should be enough to beat becker. only seen BB a few times but wasnt that great and soderling could smash him in one set then see his head drop and game over. that was 1.9/1 and added hradecka to win aswell - impressed me last few weeks beating few decent players so sticking with her. sevastova i havent seen but not great stats from what i read and is ranked lower so should lose! that was 3/1 all with william hill Hey I promise you that Murray vs Prodon who is a french clayspecialist who has won a few challengers already in south america should be more problem for Murray who sucks on clay then Becker will be for Soderling. Becker on clay is not something you see too often and Soderling has a good record against him, never lost a set and beat him 3 times on Beckers best surface hard. Prodon likes clay and is a fighter and should be able to cause Murray some problems while Becker will be nothing for Soderling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckets Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Kvitova probably wins against Greta Arn, but winning the tournament? I don't think so, and the reason is health issues. This tournament is very physically demanding, and Kvitova had troubles with her hip last week. It will eventually come through in the least suitable moment. edit: BTW, nice moment to take tatishilli LIVE. 2-2 in the second set, but Bartoli is due to lose. I took it erlier at 2.0, now its about 1.45 edit2: This Bartoli LIVE looks like a classical jyinx :\. Berdych -8 failed, Tatishvili is going to fail in a moment, I live solely thanks to some tailed bets. I think i got all 3 bets correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Igor Kunitsyn v Florian Mayer Kunitsyn just coming from a final on hard in Cremona, Italy which he won beating Schuettler. He was ranked 86 last week and forced to play in Paris and he prefers hardcourt and has played 3 matches on clay so far winning over Zverev in Houston and losing to Karlovic after and in Madrid qualies to Muños-De La Nava. Florian should have this done in three. Andreas Haider-Maurer v Ryan Sweeting Should be a long game this one. Hard to pick a winner but total games will be high. None of these players can win this in straight sets against eachother. Alexandr Dolgopolov v Rainer Schuettler Schuettler should not even be here. I'm not surprised if he retires. Arnaud Clement v Filippo Volandri Clement still going strong at age 33 and has beaten Volandri 2 years ago on clay in Bordeaux in straights. Clement does'nt win many matches now but he somehow manage to raise his game in the slams even at 33 years old. He loves to play in Roland Garros where he played the longest match of his career against Santoro over 6 hours. I can't be surprised if he beats Volandri. Juan-Ignacio Chela v Tim Smyczek Looking good for Chela. He won all his matches on clay in World team cup last week in straights and before that won against Simon in rome then losing to Flo Mayer. He's gonna roll here, no doubt. Should be a formality. Good warm up going in to second round where he will face a probably harder test in Kevin Andersson. Smyczek has one futures title on clay and that's the only title he has on any surface. He has a huge lack of experience on clay. The opponents of the futures tournament on clay he won is shown below. U.S.A. F10, Orange Park, FL, USA; 08.05.2006; FU; Outdoor: Clay; Draw: 32 R32 Jose (Rubin) Statham (NZL) rank 669 W 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 R16 Horia Tecau (ROU) rank 428 W 6-0, 4-6, 6-4 Q Michael Shabaz (USA) rank 1,050 W 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(4) S David Navarrete (VEN) rank 659 W 6-3, 7-5 F Nikita Kryvonos (USA) rank 597 W 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Andy Murray v Eric Prodon Eric Prodon +9.5 2.00 bet365 A bit to high on Prodon I suspect and it's evs and worth taking. Alexandr Dolgopolov v Rainer Schuettler Under 30.5 1.90 bet365 If I'm not fooling myself on this one it should really go under 30 games. Schuettler might retire is all I can think as a risk. Igor Kunitsyn v Florian Mayer Under 29.5 1.83 bet365 Should also go under 30 games if nothing strange happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maroon Heaven Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open You guys better be carful taking Murray on with short odds. Prodon has come through the qualifying and is used to the Hard Ball here. He is a Clay court specialist and with the French on a high with so many of their players causing upsets the win is behind Prodon somewhat. I'm laying the 1.02 with a view to trade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Andy Murray v Eric Prodon Eric Prodon +9.5 2.00 bet365 A bit to high on Prodon I suspect and it's evs and worth taking. You guys better be carful taking Murray on with short odds. Prodon has come through the qualifying and is used to the Hard Ball here. He is a Clay court specialist and with the French on a high with so many of their players causing upsets the win is behind Prodon somewhat. I'm laying the 1.02 with a view to trade I just posted this +9.5 on Prodon and you're saying be carful taking Murray on with short odds? Did you even read before you wrote? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maroon Heaven Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open I just posted this +9.5 on Prodon and you're saying be carful taking Murray on with short odds? Did you even read before you wrote? More this comment murray 3-0 - should have too much for a guy ive never heard of. is playing well at the moment and taken the big guys to good games recently. i know he can lose a few servicce games but im sure murray can break back etc to pull through in three Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open More this comment Well you said "You guys" but that's just one guy and a Junior Punter to so don't bother about him. I've told him that his accumulators consisting of huge favs will always be ruined by some player. Yesterday it was Berdych and tomorrow it might be Murray. He has not even checked who Prodon is and based on that he took Murray 3-0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open 1 The dog... Under 30.5 @ 1.83 2 Flo May... Under 29.5 @ 1.83 3 Eric Prodon +9.5 @ 2.00 4 Jurgen Melzer 3-0 @ 2.00 Four-fold 13.44 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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