Tennis - The French Open

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

What about your picks for tomorrow? :)

federer beat tipsarovic 3-0 at 1.71 great odds i feel. fed been mega strong the games ive seen him play so far. looks like he has a few gears left for when he really needs them too. tipsa i do really like but just hasnt got the tools to beat players in top 4. fed will surely break him once first set them expose him as he goes for more big booming shots. or tipsa will just have errors into net and long. also gone for under 33.5 games at 1.88 think this is bit high as could at worst be 6-4 6-4 7-6 and i still win.only a lil bit on but definately worth it also gone for fed most aces at 1.81 fed isnt the fastest server but has a regualar stream of aces normally due to his placement. also fed is brilliant returner so shouldnt get too many against him stosur beat dulko 2-0 at 1.37 very impressed with stosur so far and although i used to like dulko think she wont have enough to break sam. stosur has a chance of doing something here if she carries on how she has been and i think this match will be a bit lopsided in her favour. handicap is 5.5 games so not sure on that one. more inclined for dulko but will leave it djokovic beat del potro 3-0 at 2.04 still not convinced del potro is back to anywhere near his best. few times ive seen him hes looked good but not how he was when he won his slam which was ages ago now. surely djokovic is playing at a higher level and has few more gears to go to if he needs it. even del potro serve aint as it was and this was his bread and butter before so djo for me. also he didnt have to complete last match so bit more rested gasquest beat belucci at 1.71 think this is good bet! gasquet confuses me i love his backhamd but sometimes he looks like he knows in himself his frailties and uses them to lose.. if that makes sense. but i think the crowd will be with him and he will pull through this one. belucci, i like his guts but hes pretty limited to big serve and big forehand thats all. not sure about this one now going to sleep on it ferrer beat stakhovsky 3-0 at 1.41 cant see past ferrer in this one again. sergiy has impressed me recently kind of bust on the scene for me but ferrer will be a step up too far. ferrer looks in brilliant form and last match v benneteau he was wicked. chases everything down and his serve stats are immense, up there in top 4 easily so should be able to break stakhovsky a few times at least or fight through a tie break. but he hasnt let me down yet :) darcis to beat monfils at 3.8/1 going against the bookies on this one but monfils is prone to a screw up so may be one here. dropped a set in each game so far so not exactly consistent. in all honesty ive never seen darcis play but his results have been good ones esp v llodra so worth a small punt in my eyes kuznetsova beat romino 2-0 at 1.39 solid matches from svetlana so far spanking few girls so sticking with her. think marino is reasonably lucky to be here winning 2-1 twice so cant be the best player. kuznetsova is a very talented player whos won this before and the US open which i didnt know till a minute ago so im confident rodinova to beat zvonareva at 4.7/1 happenend last year spookily enough so going for it again. vera is prone to mental retardness or breakdowns so maybe will happen again. worth a small amount as rodinova had few good results recently pavluychenkova beat llagostera-vivas 2-0 at 1.6 first off i cant wait to hear the commentators in this one! but pav is on the way up in womens game and will be winning majors soon i reckon so sticking with her. only young but doesnt seem to be fazed by much here. vives beat a poor cornet last round and pav will be whole different kettle of fish in this one. all bets at betfair alot of picks wow but fingers crossed for good day

[TennisExpert]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Stakhovsky - Ferrer For me Sergei can fight in this match. Stakhovsky played against David Ferrer at the Madrid courts in this month, lost in two sets, but 7-6, 6-3 and show really good stuff. Stakhovsky in this moment have very good form and is very strong in mental part, won many TBs in last time.. In first round beat home player Guez in 4 and in second round beat gifted Nishikori in 4, form is very good. Ferrer beat 3-0 Benneteau and Nieminen, in both matches don't have big problems, but for me Stakhovsky is in betrer shape than this two players in this moment. Stakh have chances for 3-6, 4-6, 5-7 or somethin here, I believe it. BET: +7.5 ---------- Fognini - Garcia Lopez In my opinion Fognini without too many problems won in this match. Fognini in this tournament won two matches in straight sets, against Istomin and against Robert, full energy before this match and really good form. Garcia Lopez is without the best form and clay is not the best surface for this guy. In first round concended a set against Kendrick, who hate clay surface and in second round played 4 hours against injured Ilhan, not good results. Fognini is on the other level in this moment, can win this match in three not too close sets. BET: Fognini -4.5 ------ Tipsarevic - Federer In my opinion Janko can not lost with 6 games margin or more here. Tipsarevic is in great form, in two first matches concended only 9 games, fast matches, don't concended too many energy. Tipsa is in form, hitting strong shots from the baseline and serving very well - balls are good for this style. Federer beat Lopez in three close sets and Teixerea without any problems, Lopez concended motivation after first broken serve in first and not play good, Teixera is not on the TOP100 level. I remember 5 sets at the Australian Open when Fed won 10-8 in decider. In my opinion one set here for Tipsa 3-6, 6-4, 6-7, 5-7 or something. BET: Tipsa+5.5 ------- Bellucci - Gasquet For me this match can be really close, maybe 5 sets here? Bellucci is realy gifted player, TOP15 on clay surface in my opinion, made many great results on dirt in this season. Here beat in 4 sets big server Golubev and in three Seppi from Italy. Belucci serving very well and hitting strong shots from forehand. Gasquet is big favourite here for many peoples, but I see troubles have less power than Bellucci and is more incosistent.. Gasquet in first match beat tired(?) Stepanek and played 4 sets against without form Granollers. Bellucci can do it! BET: Bellucci +1.5 ------- Kuznetsova - Marino Kuzy in this moment is in incredible form, really. Want make big result here and can do it.. In first round beat without any problems Rybarikova, in second match trash Begu 6-1, 6-1. Kuzy don't making unforced errors and serve is unbeatable, really. Kuznetsova is big claycouter and is in great shape at the return. Marino have poor record at clay surface, is totally without experience, in first round beat out of form Bondarenko, who don't show TOP150 level and in three Martniez Sanchez, who make too many unforced errors. 6-3 in first, 6-1 in second! Bet: Kuznetsova -7.5 ------ Stosur - Dulko In my opinion this is next easy match for Samantha. Stosur is in big form, in first two matches show incredible tennis. First match been very good against Benesova, in second destroy Halep and lost only 2 games in match. Stosur serving very strong and making perfect winners from the baseline. Dulko beat Falconi in two close and Pironkova in two close sets, in both matches giving many break points for rivals, not serving good. Gisela don't have power to fight against girl like Samantha, any doubts in this. For me 6-2, 6-2 BET: Stosur -7.5 ----- Rodionova - Zvonareva I see minimum one set for Rodionova. Who remember Roland Garros 2010? Rodionova here beat Zvonareva in two sets, 6-4 6-4. Rodionova have new coach - claycourts speciallist and you can see big progress in play, beat Petrova in three and Gallovits in straights, form look really good. Anastia looked confident in first matches here. Zvonareva making many unforced errors and small number of winners, in last match losing 5-2 in decider against Lisicki, but Sabine can't hold it. Big lucky for Vera.. I see three sets here. BET: Rodionova +3.5 all lines from PADDY POWER:nana

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

Had an in-play nightmare on the Murray match. He was absolutely dominating in the first set, so I took the 10.5 game handicap. He then allowed himself to be broken before hosing the second. Third set, he lost concentration and was broken again. Missed the handicap by one game. :@ I know this is probably reactionary but I'd be shocked if Murray came through his quarter. You can't make those kind of mistakes at Grand Slams and it was interesting that pre-break in the third Murray started doing his usual shouting at himself etc. His 'backs to wall' motivation thing is childish and good/half decent players will exploit it. There isn't much liquidity in the betfair market, with Murray currently 2.04 to win his quarter but 2.96 to lay. A bet on Almagro might be the way to go although what might be better is to lay Murray v Dolgopolov/Troicki in the fourth round and if he gets through that, lay again v Melzer/Almagro. I'm certain he won't come through both matches.

Results in Murray's quarter have conspired against this tactic. It's 1.82 to lay him to win his quarter and I can't take him on at that price, considering that Melzer and Almagro (only two top 10 players in Murray's quarter) have gone. Theoretically, there could be a case made for a speculative lay against Dolgo/Troicki in R4 but I think that would be forcing it as a principal rather than anything else. Atko - Paddy Power are offering Darcis on a 6.5 game handicap at 10/11. Boylesports seem to be a game out on a lot of their handicaps. Looking at taking Hantuchova +5.5 and Tipsarevic +7.5 as I think they're both a bit big and are lower elsewhere. I'm firmly on board with Fognini, he should coast past GGL. In fact, that will probably be my bet of the day. Just have to make a call on outright or 3.5 game handicap. As for Bellucci - I agree with you that the price looks very big on the Brazilian. Gasquet's playing well at the moment but so is Bellucci. He's continued his Madrid form at Roland Garros and I think he played better in Spain than Gasquet did in Rome. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Bellucci win quite comfortably. The caveat is that it's Gasquet, who can't be trusted to do anything you expect and I wouldn't exactly put Bellucci up with Djokovic in terms of reliability....

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

Results in Murray's quarter have conspired against this tactic. It's 1.82 to lay him to win his quarter and I can't take him on at that price, considering that Melzer and Almagro (only two top 10 players in Murray's quarter) have gone. Theoretically, there could be a case made for a speculative lay against Dolgo/Troicki in R4 but I think that would be forcing it as a principal rather than anything else. Atko - Paddy Power are offering Darcis on a 6.5 game handicap at 10/11. Boylesports seem to be a game out on a lot of their handicaps. Looking at taking Hantuchova +5.5 and Tipsarevic +7.5 as I think they're both a bit big and are lower elsewhere. I'm firmly on board with Fognini, he should coast past GGL. In fact, that will probably be my bet of the day. Just have to make a call on outright or 3.5 game handicap. As for Bellucci - I agree with you that the price looks very big on the Brazilian. Gasquet's playing well at the moment but so is Bellucci. He's continued his Madrid form at Roland Garros and I think he played better in Spain than Gasquet did in Rome. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Bellucci win quite comfortably. The caveat is that it's Gasquet, who can't be trusted to do anything you expect and I wouldn't exactly put Bellucci up with Djokovic in terms of reliability....

Took Fognini @1.6 on betfair for 8 points and -3.5 games @2.0 for 2 points. I'm currently also on Schiavone (-3) and Stosur (-5.5). Schiavone looks good but the Stosur bet looks unlikely as she's lost the first set 6-4. I expect her to come back and beat Dulko but the handicap is a tough ask and I'm not going back in on her. The 5.5 handicaps on Hantuchova all got battered - really missed a trick with that one and I'm not taking 3.5 at 3/4! Intrigued by the Kuznetsova love on here. She's not as good as everyone seems to think and Marino is young enough to be unpredictable. Some firms have the handicap at 6.5 games, which seems very big.

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Djokovic vs Del Potro - Del Potro +7.5 - 4/6 Strength 10/10 Yes Djokovic is unbeaten in 2011, yes he is the most improved player on clay and yes he has been thrashing a lot of his opponents... but this is Del Potro, a US Open Champion and French Open Semi Finalist. I am not convinced Djokovic will beat him in 3 sets and I am definitely not convinced he will beat him by a majority of over 8 games or more over the entire match. Del Potro has a massive serve and it should take atleast 1 set to a tie break if not win him a tie break. Djokovic vs Del Potro +5.5 - Del Potro 7/4 - Strength 8/10 Again same reasons as a above, slightly more risky but definitely value ... check out the odds. I know many people don't inform of their stake but I don't particularly care... £40 on +7.5 and £20 on +5.5 Oh and all with Paddy Power Good luck everyone

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Monfils vs Darcis - Darcis +6.5 - 4/6 - Strength 9/10 Mr Eractic Can I Even Be Interested Monfils will inevitably lose a set in this match and come threw in a nervy 4 .. he has tennis ADHD as far as I am concerned ... needs something to focus on and being a set down or one set all will be what it takes... Darcis is no mug, beaten quality players on the way to this 3rd round and could even snatch it... I don't see him losing a set by more than 1 break ... easy money.... With Paddy Power My stake - £12

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Tsonga vs Wawrinka - Tsonga win - 4/6 (I took @ 5/6) - Strength 9.5/10 Tsonga is all around the slightly better player when both @ their best, right now, neither are @ their best but Tsonga is certainly in the better form. Wawrinka has appalled me this clay season and I watched his exhibition match with Tsonga in which he was taken apart 6-1, 7-6 and was astounded by the level he was performing @ ... Tsonga also has the French Open crowd behind him, the fact he is French and opinion he is charismatic will mean the French crowd will be all over this one and Tsonga more than other player may be aside from Lleyton Hewitt feeds of support. Tsonga vs Wawrinka - Tsonga to win 3-0 - 7/2 - Strength 6.5/10 Pretty positive Tsonga will take the first and if he takes what I believe will be a very close second I can see Wawrinka tanking it..... All again with Paddy Power

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Gasguet vs Belluci - Over 38.5 games - 5/6 - Strength 7.5/10 I certainly can't pick a winner and I wouldn't want to, although I am swaying more towards Belluci... Gasguet is a talent a real talent, but can he live with the controlled aggression belluci possesses from the back of the court? Hmmmm. Gasguet has movement and variety and again like Tsonga the French Crowd on his side. I underestimated Belluci this clay court season, I thought Murray would show controlled aggression against him and dispatch his arse with ease, unfortunately Murray was rather passive and I notice trends of passivity on Gasguets play from time to time, especially when he is involved in a long baseline battle. For these reasons I see this match being more than 3 sets and therefore would estimate the amount of games meeting atleast 39 or more... With Paddy Power

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

Djokovic vs Del Potro - Del Potro +7.5 - 4/6 Strength 10/10 Djokovic vs Del Potro +5.5 - Del Potro 7/4 - Strength 8/10 I know many people don't inform of their stake but I don't particularly care... £40 on +7.5 and £20 on +5.5

Monfils vs Darcis - Darcis +6.5 - 4/6 - Strength 9/10 My stake - £12

10/10 = £40 9/10 = £12 8/10 = £20 This confuses me. Personally I don't care if people put or don't put stakes up, at least when they do, or post a screen you know that they're putting their money where their mouth it. However, what you've done just doesn't make any sense. Schaivone bet was void due to Peng's retirement and Stosur threw her final set away after doing really well to come back. She was 4-6. 6-1, 2-1 and serving at one point and looked like she could not only win but bring in the 'cap. No joy though, frustrating day so far. I've given Kuznetsova a miss and went for Tipsarevic (+7.5 games). The Serb is playing well and looked very good against Riba and Dabul. Federer's okay but he's lost to Melzer and Gasquet recently, who I rate similar to Tipsy and he didn't manage to cover this handicap against Lopez in R1. He's only played Tipsarevic once in 5 set format and took all five to beat him in Australia in '08. The final set was 10-8 Federer! I think 7.5 is too big and put a nice bet on at evens. Bit annoyed I missed the 11/10.

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Well, I see their being strength in the Monfils match but the amount of funds available to me for gambling are limited so I've had to bet low on the Monfils match..

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Fognini getting battered, this guy is as consistent as an old black and white television.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

Fognini getting battered' date=' this guy is as consistent as an old black and white television.[/quote'] Yes, he's just getting eaten up at the moment. I'll be expecting him to stage some kind of fightback because GGL just isn't really consistent enough. Maybe once Fognini gets a bit of a read on him... As for the staking - surely if funds are tight you just half each point? I just find it odd that you've rated the bets in terms of strength (how likely they are to win in YOUR mind) yet your staking is all over the place and doesn't correspond. On another note - Tipsarevic :puke

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Lump on federer people!! Back to his beautiful best wow love it

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

Lump on federer people!! Back to his beautiful best wow love it

I won't be touching him in any form for the rest of the tournament. I won't be opposing him though, learnt that lesson today. Tipsy played quite well but Federer was too good. The +7.5 was dead after the 19-minutes first set :eek The good news is that Fognini has taken the second set from GGL. Bad news that he went a break up then lost it in the third :(

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

I won't be touching him in any form for the rest of the tournament. I won't be opposing him though, learnt that lesson today. Tipsy played quite well but Federer was too good. The +7.5 was dead after the 19-minutes first set :eek The good news is that Fognini has taken the second set from GGL. Bad news that he went a break up then lost it in the third :(

Haha il be sticking with him i think depending on odds obviously. He looked immense with still few gears left i reckon Seppi is a funny one just saw him smash his raquet to ground again. I Remember he took murray far first game i ever saw seppi but hes just so inconsistent

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open If I lose the Darcis bet I am really going to be very pissed off!!!! He keeps losing close games in which Monfils scrambles points off.

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Fed was at massive at 19 to win, now down to 11 so hopefully with a semi appearance could be a good lay opportunity. And dolgopolov was 1000/1, now 220 so hopfully a qiarter place then lay aswell :) Hantuchova is looking good v wozniacki too very impressive power n accuracy

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

Fed was at massive at 19 to win, now down to 11 so hopefully with a semi appearance could be a good lay opportunity. And dolgopolov was 1000/1, now 220 so hopfully a qiarter place then lay aswell :) Hantuchova is looking good v wozniacki too very impressive power n accuracy

Yes, I'm regretting not backing Hantuchova on the handicap when I pointed it out last night. It was an absolute gift to be able to get a +5.5!

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Dulko over Stosur, now Bartoli over Goerges. Court Philippe Chatrie is somewhat enchanted. I guess I shall go for DelPotro over Djokovic :lol

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

Yes' date=' I'm regretting not backing Hantuchova on the handicap when I pointed it out last night. It was an absolute gift to be able to get a +5.5![/quote'] U know it mate! I only got 4.5 at 1.8 but glad i did a lil and even after she won first set she was still 1.9 to win match even tho woz dont have the weapons to beat her. Strange woz today not looking as mobile as most times losing silly points

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Just LOL @ monfils .... had Darcis won that game, I'd have needed Darcis to lose 6-1 in the 4th for me to have lost my bet.... Now I just have to hope Darcis can stretch this to a tie break.

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open What a bloody choke!

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open +6.5 handicap and he wins by 7.. 1 break in each set like I said but I still lost, absolute joke!!! Got to say I predicted it right, only didn't cater for the joke, how unfortunate.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The French Open I've taken a small stakes stab at Bellucci. I'm not entirely sure if it was the right thing to do though and might just trade out quickly (assuming nothing horrible in opening few games).

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

I've taken a small stakes stab at Bellucci. I'm not entirely sure if it was the right thing to do though and might just trade out quickly (assuming nothing horrible in opening few games).

LOL! :puke

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

LOL! :puke

Belluci has the weapons to beat Gasguet on Clay but not the tennis brain. I still fancy this to go to 5 sets .. and anything can happen with Gasguet in 5 as we've seen in the past.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Wozniacki was never gonna win the French, laughable how short she is before the start of major events like this. Hantuchova was available at +5.5 games on Boyles yesterday evening. The womens is wide open now.

[Atko]

Sore way to lose the Darcis line, complete balls-up when 5-2 up in the third. Such is the quirk of tennis betting though. Hopeful Tsonga can close out from this position, however.

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - The French Open Will someone PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE TELL ME WHY Thomas Belluci doesn't run into the net and put the ball away with an easy volley after he hits one of his wonderus forehands?

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The French Open

Sore way to lose the Darcis line, complete balls-up when 5-2 up in the third. Such is the quirk of tennis betting though. Hopeful Tsonga can close out from this position, however.

Presume you stayed away from Bellucci then?