Atko Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 I did mate, which looks fortunate at this moment in time. I say fortunate, because the price had come in a little when I went back to Betfair this morning. I was close to hitting it but couldn't make the sums work at the odds they were. Even the plus had come in by that point. I wouldn't give up yet though, this is Gasquet ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Yeah but I think Bellucci's fold in the last set was pretty key. He broke back then was immediately broken again. It would be an incredible collapse from Gasquet if he couldn't close out now. I just can't seem to get going in Paris, every winner seems to be followed by a bad call... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 I've been exactly the same in this tournament, very scratchy so far. Need to be more selective. Age old story really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Going to finish the day with a bet on Djokovic (-6.5) @1.93. Djokovic is playing brilliant tennis, as Atko pointed out, while Del Potro is still not fully recovered from a hip injury that forced him to withdraw from Madrid and Rome earlier this month. Djokovic has never lost a set to Delpo and hasn't ever really been troubled by the Argentine. Djokovic's run will end eventually but it doesn't look like happening at the moment and I think he takes this in straight sets. Remember how easily Djokovic destroyed Murray in Australia? I see something similar today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Going to finish the day with a bet on Djokovic (-6.5) @1.93. Djokovic is playing brilliant tennis, as Atko pointed out, while Del Potro is still not fully recovered from a hip injury that forced him to withdraw from Madrid and Rome earlier this month. Djokovic has never lost a set to Delpo and hasn't ever really been troubled by the Argentine. Djokovic's run will end eventually but it doesn't look like happening at the moment and I think he takes this in straight sets. Remember how easily Djokovic destroyed Murray in Australia? I see something similar today. Very dangerous and no value bet there if you ask me. I respect your bet though, just consider Del Potro's been to the semi finals of the French Open and Djokovic beat him both times ages back now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riz31 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open I'm liking Juan Martin Del Potro to not win a set - $2.00 Sportsbet Don't usually bet on Grand Slams in the first week as my knowledge is only limited to the top 30-40 players but considering Under 3.5 Sets is 1.67 and Novak to win 3-0 is $1.80. Must be a typo on their behalf so I'm taking advantage. Hope it pulls through Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Oh for crying out loud Tsonga is going to ruin my day, I can feel it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open I'm liking Juan Martin Del Potro to not win a set - $2.00 Sportsbet Don't usually bet on Grand Slams in the first week as my knowledge is only limited to the top 30-40 players but considering Under 3.5 Sets is 1.67 and Novak to win 3-0 is $1.80. Must be a typo on their behalf so I'm taking advantage. Hope it pulls through We're not going to get any of the Djokovic Del Potro match today, possibly a set but no more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Very dangerous and no value bet there if you ask me. I respect your bet though' date=' just consider Del Potro's been to the semi finals of the French Open and Djokovic beat him both times ages back now.[/quote'] I agree with you that it isn't an absolute certainty but I don't think Djokovic can be under-estimated either. People have been expecting this unbeaten run to come to an end every time he takes to the court, yet he just isn't showing any signs of slipping up. His physical improvements means that you now don't think he'll break down the way he used to. Del Potro though is likely to break down. He had some really tough matches in Miami and Indian Wells and he struggled as games got longer. He's had to play a lot of tennis this year to try and build his ranking and I think it's just beginning to take its toll. Djokovic's returns will put pressure on Del Potro's serve, which can be erratic to say the least. The Argentine has faced 140 break points in 340 service games this season against average players. Djokovic is the world's best returner at the moment, which means Delpo will be under immense pressure all match. I can see at least one set running away from him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open I agree with you that it isn't an absolute certainty but I don't think Djokovic can be under-estimated either. People have been expecting this unbeaten run to come to an end every time he takes to the court, yet he just isn't showing any signs of slipping up. His physical improvements means that you now don't think he'll break down the way he used to. Del Potro though is likely to break down. He had some really tough matches in Miami and Indian Wells and he struggled as games got longer. He's had to play a lot of tennis this year to try and build his ranking and I think it's just beginning to take its toll. Djokovic's returns will put pressure on Del Potro's serve, which can be erratic to say the least. The Argentine has faced 140 break points in 340 service games this season against average players. Djokovic is the world's best returner at the moment, which means Delpo will be under immense pressure all match. I can see at least one set running away from him. :notworthy You make a very good argument in that last paragraph, one with which i can't argue with, good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elmemyself Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Oh for crying out loud Tsonga is going to ruin my day' date=' I can feel it.[/quote'] I can feel your pain :cry Damn, I was so anxious for Djokovic's match... I guess we're having only one set today. Is this Wawrinka vs Tsonga match being played in the main court? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Tsonga can piss right off, thickest tennis player known to man, all brawn no brain, adding him to my black list (no pun intended) - Rubbish advertisement for tennis and no I do not find him in the slightest bit aesthetically pleasing or exciting to watch. Good riddance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobNL Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Tsonga :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Very dangerous and no value bet there if you ask me. I respect your bet though' date=' just consider Del Potro's been to the semi finals of the French Open and Djokovic beat him both times ages back now.[/quote'] Like I said Captaincool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawain04 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open advice required - had accumulator with pavylechekova, gasquet and djokovic (i know i should have said earlier) should i bet on del potro to win to cover myself?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open advice required - had accumulator with pavylechekova, gasquet and djokovic (i know i should have said earlier) should i bet on del potro to win to cover myself?? BIG NO. Djokovic will still win. How much was the accumulator? If you want to cover yourself look for a handicap + on games for Del Potro. That way you still win if Djokovic wins... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Put half of what you staked on +3.5 Del Potro, that way if he loses you win your stake back and if he wins you win your stake back including the winnings from the accumulator. :dude I don't see Del Potro losing 3 sets to 1 6-4, 6-4 for example, I definitely sniff a tie break in there and it may even go to 5 sets which would mean he'd only lose by a break at the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Djokovic vs Del Potro - Del Potro +7.5 - 4/6 Strength 10/10 Yes Djokovic is unbeaten in 2011, yes he is the most improved player on clay and yes he has been thrashing a lot of his opponents... but this is Del Potro, a US Open Champion and French Open Semi Finalist. I am not convinced Djokovic will beat him in 3 sets and I am definitely not convinced he will beat him by a majority of over 8 games or more over the entire match. Del Potro has a massive serve and it should take atleast 1 set to a tie break if not win him a tie break. Djokovic vs Del Potro +5.5 - Del Potro 7/4 - Strength 8/10 Again same reasons as a above, slightly more risky but definitely value ... check out the odds. I know many people don't inform of their stake but I don't particularly care... £40 on +7.5 and £20 on +5.5 Oh and all with Paddy Power Good luck everyone Only tips looking any decent. Really horrendous day, largely due to Tsonga 2 sets and a break up, Darcis as well a game away from securing my handicap, absolute joke, I should know never to back against the "pusher" OR more consistent player should I say on Clay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawain04 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open BIG NO. Djokovic will still win. How much was the accumulator? If you want to cover yourself look for a handicap + on games for Del Potro. That way you still win if Djokovic wins... i agree - i still think he will win £10 pays £23 what will the odds be on +3.5 games del potro??? might just go gung ho and go for it. djokovic should win best of 3, right... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open i agree - i still think he will win £10 pays £23 what will the odds be on +3.5 games del potro??? might just go gung ho and go for it. djokovic should win best of 3, right... No, don't bother with that, you are putting your eggs all in one basket, besides, Del Potro +3.5 is evens, so £10 would pay £20 including your original stake that is. Del Potro serves like a monster, his forehand is a monster and Djokovic is struggling to defend against both, this won't be easy for Novak, not by any means, I expect a tie break and the match to go either way but possibly most likely in favour of Novak's. How much was your stake on the accumulator? Just stake £10 on a +3.5 handicap for Del Potro. Say Djokovic wins this next set 7-6? he'd need to win by 3 games in the following and even that could end in a tie break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawain04 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open No, don't bother with that, you are putting your eggs all in one basket, besides, Del Potro +3.5 is evens, so £10 would pay £20 including your original stake that is. Del Potro serves like a monster, his forehand is a monster and Djokovic is struggling to defend against both, this won't be easy for Novak, not by any means, I expect a tie break and the match to go either way but possibly most likely in favour of Novak's. How much was your stake on the accumulator? Just stake £10 on a +3.5 handicap for Del Potro. Say Djokovic wins this next set 7-6? he'd need to win by 3 games in the following and even that could end in a tie break. ok cheers will follow that then :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open 4 for me in the men's draw tomorrow, some already mentioned by Atko. If tomorrow goes to plan though, I'll be a happy bunny with what I've seen this week. Rafael Nadal vs Pablo Andujar- Under 26.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10)- LOSS Antonio Veic vs Nicolay Davydenko- Under 32.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10)- LOSS Tobias Kamke vs Viktor Troicki- Troicki -7.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) WIN Lukas Rosol vs Jurgen Melzer- Under 32.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10)- LOSS Sorry for the delay, had my first exam today so mind has been on that. Not going to bother explaining the results as it messes up the flow of the forum. Will say I won't be backing the unders on a Melzer match for a while :lol. -10 for that day, which leaves me on +5.41. Going in the wrong direction now, hope I can pick it up again tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Delete please lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TennisExpert Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Sport Tennis Event Berrer - Murray Selection Berrer +7.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 3.20 Reasoning In my opinion Berrer is hard opponent to beat in this tournament.. Berrer played really good tennis in this tournament, making more winners than unforced errors. Fast clay is good for this serve-volley player. Here beat TOP25, big server Raonic and experience, home player Clement. In both matches looked really strong/ Murray beat with small problems unexperience Prodon and in very close match beat out of TOP100 Bolelli. Clay is not the best Murray surface and I see troubles in this match. Berrer can make 4-6, 3-6, 5-7, any doubts for me. ---- Sport Tennis Event Kvitova - King Selection Kvitova -8.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 4.50 Reasoning For me next match with under one hour duration. Kvitova is in big form, any doubts in this. Destroy in-form Arn 6-2, 6-1 and beat good Zheng 6-4, 6-1, both girls are good on clay and this results are really well. Kvitova hitting really hard balls and serving very good. Many winners. King not won 20 matches in career on clay surface, really bad balance, don't have any experience. Have really lucky draw, played against injured Cibulkova and other clay hater Baltacha.. Kvitova without any problems! ------- Sport Tennis Event Cirstea - Li Selection Cirstea +2.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 3.00 Reasoning In my opinion Sorana can make suprise, but I play more safety option. Cirstea is in very good form, looked very strong and confident. In this tournament made more winners than unforced errors and beat two nice player - Patty Schnyder and other Romanian girl claycourts speciallist Alexandre Dulgheru. Li in first match play awful tennis against Zahlavova and in second round play two close sets against unexperience Soler-Espinosa, this is not good tournament for China, really. For me three sets, maybe for Cirstea! ------- Sport Tennis Event Sharapova - Chan Selection Sharapova -8.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 4.50 Reasoning I played two previous matches Sharapova, I took -8.5 against, and Garcia +5.5, both picks won. In this match I see Maria from first round and really easy match. Chan off course play good tournament, won Q here(3 matches) and 2 in main, but have really lucky draw, no doubts. Chan don't have power to play on the Maria level. Clay off course is the slower surface and here Maria have more time to make really big hits and destroy Chan. For me many broken Chan serves and 6-0, 6-1 or something! ------- Sport Tennis Event Radwanska - Wickmayer Selection Radwanska -1.5 sets (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 3.00 Reasoning In my opinion Radwanska won this match in two sets. This is clay surface, Agnieszka feel good here, in 2008 and 2008 made fourth round in RG. This is the worst Wickmayer surface, never been in third round here. In first two matches have not good rivals and in last weekend retired in Brussel.. Agnieszka look very consitend and not making unforced errors, today have great rival to beat - Wickmayer don't have tactic to play agaisnt Radwanska on clay, any question in this. For me Agnieszka in two sets, maybe close, but two. ---------- Sport Tennis Event Kirilenko - Rus Selection Kiri -5.5 Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 2.88 Reasoning For me time to lose for Arantxa. Kirilenko in my opinion is better player, in first two matches played against players with similar style with Rus and both won 2:0 - Vandevge i Scheepers. Kirilenko have very good first serve % and not making too many unforced errors, very consistent girl. Rus here have many lucky, in first round beat Erakovic in three sets and in second match make big suprise and won against Clisjters in three, in both matches rivals making too many errors(Clijsters over 60!). Rus not play incredible.. For me Kirilenko in two sets next time, 7-5, 6-1 ------- Sport Tennis Event Azarenka - Vinci Selection Azarenka -8.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 5.00 Reasoning Azarenka in my opinion 6-1, 6-1. Azarenka in last time playing the best tennis in career, destroying rivals, many great winners, very consistent game without too many unforced errors. In first two matches against Hlavackova and Parmentier concended only 7 games. Made 41 winners and only 23 unforced errors. Vinci beat Errani in three sets and no name Bermond in two, in this matches made 51 unforced errors. Serve is not really hard to break. Azarenka in lRome beat Errani 6-2, 6-1. Why not repeat it today? For me one class above, huge value in this odds! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Right 3 for me tomorrow then, hoping I can have a day of profit to make up for a couple of dodgy days. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Viktor Troicki- Dolgopolov -2 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Two players who I've backed with handicaps in Paris but I fancy the Ukranian to come out on top here in a match which I'd fancy to be relatively close for the majority. Troicki looked a big jaded towards the end of the third set against Kamke in the last round. He in fact came back from a break down to win the third set tie break and the match, and I believe that a better all round player than Kamke could have caused real problems for the Serb. Dolgopolov, aside from Federer, has looked the most impressive to me in his past couple of matches and he's won both matches in easy straight sets. Like Troicki, the Ukranian will get plenty of cheap points on serve, but in the rallies, it's Dolgopolov's unorthodox style that I'd back to come out on top more often than not. We've seen this year that Dolgopolov can turn it on in the key matches, making the quarters at the Australian Open and I like him here to record his first win against Troicki and if he does so, the handicap is low enough to cover as well. Andy Murray vs Michael Berrer- Over 28.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Still wouldn't fancy Murray with any conviction after watching him against Bollelli and Berrer should be a tricky opponent for the Scot. His lefty angles can always create problems on the tour and we've seen this year he can handle himself against some good opponents. He took a set of Montanes a couple weeks back, whilst pushing Soderling close on two ocassions this year. His first serve is handy and even against Murray, he should be able to pick up some comfortable service games and force a tight set or two. Murray never seems to do things easily these days, especially on clay. He still doesn't look particularly right to me, and although I'd fancy him to come through this comfortably in the end, Berrer should be able to keep things tight for a while if he can serve well and I'll back him to bring the overs in. Leonardo Mayer vs Robin Soderling- Tie break to be played- 11/8 Bet365- (3/10) This is an ambitious one but the price is one I like. Clay often produces a fair number of tie breaks and for the past couple of weeks, Soderling hasn't impressed me. Saw him against Golubev last week and he was outplayed for a fair majority of that match before pulling through, similarly he was average against Querrey as well and took a fair while to get going. He dropped a set against Harrison, and despite beating Ramos-Vinolas comfortably, I still wouldn't fancy the Swede to win this comfortably with any conviction based on what I've seen from him. Mayer has come through qualifiers and has won a total of 5 matches here in Paris which could imply that fatigue should start to creep in, but if he can keep a couple of sets tightish, he could suprise a few people and take one set to a tie break. He has played tie breaks against Brown and also Baghdatis a couple of days ago, so he's no stranger to the long sets. The only time these two players met, was a tightly fought Davis Cup battle which the Swede won 7-5 7-6 7-5. I'll take the Argentinian to keep it tight and hopefully cause a tie break in a set like he did in their last meeting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open No, don't bother with that, you are putting your eggs all in one basket, besides, Del Potro +3.5 is evens, so £10 would pay £20 including your original stake that is. Del Potro serves like a monster, his forehand is a monster and Djokovic is struggling to defend against both, this won't be easy for Novak, not by any means, I expect a tie break and the match to go either way but possibly most likely in favour of Novak's. How much was your stake on the accumulator? Just stake £10 on a +3.5 handicap for Del Potro. Say Djokovic wins this next set 7-6? he'd need to win by 3 games in the following and even that could end in a tie break. Djokovic will win this with ease tomorrow. I'm actually still confident in my (-6.5) bet. I'll happily lay evens if anyone wants on a tie-break... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Yesterday was a hugely frustrating day. Less said about it the better. One bet for me today. - Ivan Ljubicic +3.5 games (v Fernando Verdasco) @ 1.917 with Pinnacle (7pts) I'm pretty surprised to see Verdasco put up as the favourite in this one, let alone such a big plus on Ljubi. Not sure Nando has it in him right now to go deep in a slam. He's too brittle mentally and checks out of matches. Malisse really ought to have taken his chances in R2 and even out-of-form Monaco had opportunities. Verdasco looks bereft of confidence, even though he's won his matches. He's lost some very winnable games this year, mainly because he's made too many errors off the deck and on serve. Ljubi is playing really well. Big serve, deep groundies and good variation. He's also got a 2-1 lead in the H2H and has only dropped his serve twice in the tournament. If he loses, he'll go down fighting. Conditions suit him at RG, and to offer him on a plus when Verdasco is out of form seems very generous. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lato89 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Yesterday was a hugely frustrating day. Less said about it the better. One bet for me today. - Ivan Ljubicic +3.5 games (v Fernando Verdasco) @ 1.917 with Pinnacle (7pts) I'm pretty surprised to see Verdasco put up as the favourite in this one, let alone such a big plus on Ljubi. Not sure Nando has it in him right now to go deep in a slam. He's too brittle mentally and checks out of matches. Malisse really ought to have taken his chances in R2 and even out-of-form Monaco had opportunities. Verdasco looks bereft of confidence, even though he's won his matches. He's lost some very winnable games this year, mainly because he's made too many errors off the deck and on serve. Ljubi is playing really well. Big serve, deep groundies and good variation. He's also got a 2-1 lead in the H2H and has only dropped his serve twice in the tournament. If he loses, he'll go down fighting. Conditions suit him at RG, and to offer him on a plus when Verdasco is out of form seems very generous. :hope hello atko! what about 1set over 9,5 games @ 1,66 bet365 thx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Not for me lato, not a market I tend to get involved in. Price would put me off, a 6-3 is entirely feasible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Re: Tennis - The French Open Just won 50 quid on Triocki, took him @ Evens during in play betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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