BBOTD Saturday 30th April

[Lars]

I know this is so ridiculously early, but I may not have internet access and I got the price now that I was hoping for. We'll see if it drifts out tomorrow, and at least we've got BOG. Newmarket 15:45 I’m so keen on the chances of Jonny Mudball in this race, even though it’s a distinct step up in class and he has a little bit to do on figures that I’m willing to take this early price. To me, he’s an out and out 5f horse, and the drop to the minimum trip will be of huge benefit. Surprisingly it’ll be his first start at the distance, and he does have to make it in Group 3 Company, making the jump from Heritage Handicaps. The main piece of form that leads me to believe he could hack up in a race like this was his run in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood in July. Racing on the far side in only a small group (compared to the rest of the field), he absolutely bolted clear of them, and was winning by a couple of lengths within the final furlong. He wasn’t stopping, but tiring slightly in the last half-furlong, and ended up finishing 2nd. It was a bold effort but I just think that at the top level, he may just need a slightly shorter trip than the 6f that he encountered there. Jonny Mudball was last seen at the track when racing in the Ayr Gold Cup. He showed good speed throughout the early stages of the race, but was unable to get his favoured position over that trip due to missing the break (first time he’d done so in his career). It was still a bold effort in what is a tough handicap. He hasn’t been seen since, which is perhaps a concern as he’s been away for the track for 224 days. The selection a horse who has mainly been kept on the go, and his only real record fresh doesn’t look the best on paper, when running 6th at Doncaster. There are excuses for that run, for the fact it was run on slightly soft ground, which has proved not to be his ideal surface. Tom Dascombe was also in dreadful form at that point, a factor being the new gallop he moved to being faulty (allegedly). Jonny Mudball still finished very close up, but just emptied out in the last 150yds. Today, he moves up to Group 3 company in what look a great race. He does have 8lbs to make up on the top rated horses (Prohibit and Bordlescott) but I think the drop in trip can lead to some serious improvement this year. Especially on faster ground which he encounters today. I think he can be a serious contender for the late season 5f Group 1 sprints at York and at Longchamp. Seb Sanders booking is a positive, him having ridden him on his last four starts, including when winning at Newcastle off a mark of 90, when showing the excellent early speed previously mentioned. The draw has been quite kind too, and he may be able to bag a rail sit if his jockey wishes to. At a double figure price, I’m staking a bit more than usual. He may prove not to be up to a Group 3, or may need the run. However, I feel opportunities (personally) don’t come around too often, and perhaps if he does get beat today, they’ll be other chances for him to recoup. Still, I think the race conditions, draw, and the expertise of Seb Sanders should lead to a massive run. Jonny Mudball ; EW @ 14/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

[Quackers]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 2.00 Newmarket Proponent e/w 9/1 William Hill Was going to leave this race alone as I am pretty rubbish at trying to find the winner of these big field handicaps but I like the look of this horse here. Proponent is a regular in these types of races and ran with plenty of zest on his return in the Spring Cup at Newbury. He didn't get the best passage that day and was always travelling well. When he did get the gaps he ran on well. He should come on for that outing and the extra distance should play too his strengths. He is a CD winner and has Frankie on board who is 1 from 1 on the horse. I see this as a big positive as Frankie is one of the best big race riders in the business and should be able to stay clear of trouble through the race. That win under Frankie came in October 2009 and was the horses last win but he has had plenty of near misses and hard luck stories. Hopefully today will be the day that he gets his head back in front. He has never won off a mark this high but is definitely capable as he showed when an unlucky 3rd behind Ransom Note at York last year off 97. He won this race back in 2008 off a mark of 90 so with that run at Newbury under his belt, I expect a good run from this horse. The favourite here Green Destiny could well turn out to be much better than these and should go well under Michael Hills but I am happy to take him on!

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 17.00 Uttoxeter Red Jester - 1 pt win @ SP Red Jester has been unlucky on two occasions coming second twice after a five month break but in this field he looks the outstanding chance against the main rivals and should get back to winning ways if he can produce form that he once had with hes former yard and should go well at this course and distance

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April Great days racing today. It looks like Mr Hannon has found a nice little race for his 3yr old colt in the 4:20 - Race 5 on the Card. He was 2nd last time out be that on polytrack but that run will have been purely too sharpen him up for today. Today's trip is over the 7f and its a trip he seems to show his best work. I also think the handicapper could have missed him and Jockey Kieran T O'Neil takes off 5lb, this in my book could be a very shrewd move by Mr Hannon. If his last run at the end of March has woke him up and he does not run out of juice at the business end he could be in with a major chance. Newmarket 4:20 BUNCE. 0.5 e/w bet 16/1 Corals. Enjoy your weekend.

[He who dares .. wins]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April Green destiny 2:00 newmarket 1pt win 11/2 paddy power 2 wins from 3 last year promised a good bit more in 2011 very winnable race here has the best form in the race trainer in decent form aswell should go close here :hope

[Cal]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April Uttoxeter 17:00 RED JESTER Red Jester hasn't won since November 2009 but has been a consistent sort of late and I wouldn't say his competition in this one is tough for him, he should finally break his duck. Trip, ground and the course won't be a problem. He has a fairly good record at this course and is a C + D winner too. I think he's set up to break the duck tomorrow and I don't think any of his rivals stand out past him, so hopefully he brings this one back.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 3:10 Newmarket (2000 Guineas) - Frankel - Back It is, quite simply, the day the racing world has been waiting for since the flat season kicked off. He has run 5 and won 5, and put plainly, he could not have been more impressive. His performance in the Royal Lodge in September was one of the most breathtaking horse racing performances that I have ever seen. He has shown a tendancy to pull extremely hard throughout his young career thus far, but it has shown no sign of stopping him as he possesses truly devastating pace at the pivotal points in races. He has truly hacked up on every start thus far and it will take a performance of mammoth proportions by one of his opponents to stop him landing his first Classic here 1pt win @ 4/7 William Hill BOG

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 2.00 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Viva Vettori @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Hugely open handicap in which there looks value to be had. Despite the David Elsworth yard not going great guns, I am going to take a chance on a horse with an excellent record fresh, and on a good mark. Viva Vettori made a promising start to his career, and progressed to be a good handicapper, especially on the all-weather where he boasts a mark of 99. Has run in this race in the last two years, finishing 2nd off 87 in 2009, and a close 4th off 88 last year. Ran a good race again at Newmarket in October and gets 9lbs more from Brick Red on that run for less than a 2l defeat. 121 is his record fresh (narrowly beaten 2nd) and romped to victory at Kempton on his reappearance in 2010 (in a competitive listed race). A mark of 84 looks very fair for the horse who also runs regularly at Newmarket. William Buick has a good record on the horse and even though Viva Vettori is a maiden on the turf, he has never raced fresh on the surface, so tomorrow could well be the day at a very rewarding price. Either way, I would expect a bold showing with Buick showing a £15 level stake profit for the trainer.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April Newm 3.10 - Dubawi Gold - EW at 40/1 BOG with Paddy Power I'm desperately looking for an EW shot............I think Frankel will win however I couldn't back him at odds on. There's just that little doubt as to wether he can produce his turn of speed in a big field with a good pace on. He probably will because hopefully he'll settle OK and have a nice run behind the leaders........but it's a doubt all the same. Also any horse can have an off day and that's what puts me off backing odds on shots (plus i usually put the curse on them if they carry my cash..........:unsure) Sorry but i can't be having Casamento or Native Khan...........Derby horses !..........might run on into 4th or 5th and that would be a terrific Derby trial. Loving Spirit also has the look of a stayer My instinct tells me to swerve O'brien and Godolphin horses making their seasonal debuts in group ones..........goodbye Saamidd and Roderic. Broox, Slim Shady, Happy Today and Rerouted are not good enough to figure That leaves me with 3 - Pathfork, Fury and Dubawi Gold Pathfork looks a genuine group one horse and is the most likely winner if Frankel underperforms Fury is unbeaten, acts on the ground, has won over 7F here and won that Tattersalls Million race last season. Haggas knows his horses and the booking of Johnny Murtagh must be a positive ! Dubawi Gold is a real long shot - he looks very exposed with 9 runs already but he's fighting fit having won 2 listed races on the all weather recently and he represents Hannon-Hughes. With such a strong stable you'd think he must be fairly well regarded to be their only runner. I can see a scenario where Frankel goes 3 lengths clear at the furlong pole and the others kind of ease down but Dubawi swoops late to get 3rd.............running on through beaten horses

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 3:10 Newmarket - Loving Spirit - 0.5pts e/w @ 66/1 (Bet365 - BOG) There's a fair chance that most people not backing Frankel are just playing for the 2 places in behind. However, I'm not overly convinced that Henry Cecil's potential superstar is unbeatable just yet, purely as he hasn't faced a truly run race. It's all well and good destroying everyone around when the early fractions are very sedate, but can he do it if they go at it from the off? Who knows. There's a fair chance that this won't be run frantically from the off, but it should be set up quite well by the likes of Rerouted, who seems to be included to set it all up for the hot favourite. Frankel is clearly a horse with the most amazing speed and acceleration, but to date, that's all been off a slowly run pace in small fields. Fair enough, he hasn't settled in the majority of his races and still won with absolute ease, and a good gallop would be ideal, but does that take away his most potent weapon? Possibly. I'm not saying he won't win, because in all probability he will win, but I wouldn't take 4/7 about this horse in a million years. Although I wouldn't take that price about any horse nowadays. His ability is undoubted, his ability to be at his best under these race conditions is, and for that reason, I'm fancying an upset on the cards. There's a fair chance it won't be my selection that'll win, but I think he can nab one of the places if all goes well. The one that I'm quite keen on is James Toller's potentially classy type, Loving Spirit, who will probably end up being a very useful middle-distance horse. However, I'm of the opinion that he's overlooked too easily here and could really be anything. Given that he's only run twice, he hasn't shown his all to date, but what he has shown has really impressed me. First time up he ran over 7f at this course, late on in the season. It was quite soft ground that day and he tackled a 17 runner maiden first time up, which looked a tough task. James Toller isn't too bad with his 2 year old and he clearly had this fellow spot on, as he was well-backed and duly obliged in a most impressive fashion. He sat in behind the leaders and traveled supremely throughout, before moving into contention with relative ease. In the end, Loving Spirit ran out a very easy 5 length winner, despite running as if he didn't know what was going on, although that's understandable. It wasn't a bad maiden by any means and plenty of the runners should make good animals, but Toller's charge will be the best of them. He put in a performance that would see him rated near 100 and done that all despite shaping as if he'd be a better horse on a sound surface, as his dam was. He disappointed next time out when upped in class and trip (over todays C&D), but it was still a very good effort given his inexperience. 2nd place was all he could muster, having made his charge on what may have been an unfavoured strip of ground down the centre of the course, and despite holding every chance a furlong from home, the winner had soon flown to a 2.25l victory. James Toller has come out on record and said he believed his then 2 year old colt couldn't handle running a second race in the space of 2 weeks, and that could be a valid excuse, as I'd of fully expected him to be the best horse in that race. Toller has also said that Loving Spirit has strengthened up well over the winter and he definitely looked as if there was plenty of scope for improvement in his frame last year, so we could see a different animal over the course of 2011. Toller also admits that he's probably aiming a bit high in taking on Frankel here, but he expects a decent run and so do I. The horse should make a cracking 1m 2f to 1m 4f horse, but for now, a truly run mile should be alright. He obviously handles the track and goes well fresh, as his trainer also stated, so a good run could be on the cards. This horse could be anything and although he has plenty of stamina in his blood, his sire, Azamour, wasn't half bad over a mile. The 66/1 price tag is very attractive (much bigger on the exchange) and I think he could run himself into a place if all goes well. There's plenty of other opposition for the places, but this fellow is talented, unexposed, and should make a much better 3 year old. I'm playing the smallest of small each-way stakes on him, as Frankel should and probably will win, but I'd have my doubts. I'm probably wrong to have doubts about him, but until he does it on the back of a solid gallop (in a top race obviously!), I'll be a non-believer.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April Select Committee - Thi 5.45 (10/1 BET365 BOG) This horse was in fine form at the back end of last year, winning two races in September. A respectable 4th in October was sandwiched by two other runs which can probably be ignored due to the soft ground. He ran creditably on his seasonal reappearance and has dropped 1lb to only 2lb higher than his last winning mark. The visor (worn on all six wins) is reapplied today, suggesting that the stable think he is primed for a big run from a plumb high draw.

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 3.45 Newmarket Tangerine Trees ew 16/1 Bet >365 Very progessive last season winning 5 times and finishing the seasn in September by taking a listed event over todays course and distance. Seems to love the fast ground (G/F 4-2-11) and goes particularily well right handed (6-3-9). Won first time out last season and hopefully could repeat the dose today.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April Fancy a couple today and one is in the first race at Uttoxeter. Brunston trained by Paul Nicholls looks a solid bet here, he has ran twice and was a close 4th on debut to some fairly useful types but weakened in the closing stages that day, he led next time at Ludlow until being collared by the progressive Paintball who has gone on since to enhance the form, it was slightly on the soft side that day and this firmer ground should see him finish his race off much better and this track is quite sharp so should stay the trip ok today. Cygnet is the danger in the betting but this one is a short runner too and doesnt find much under pressure so happy to take him on here. 205 Utt: Brunston 1pt (15/8 Bet365)

[Golden_J]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April Osteopathic Remedy 3.35 Thrisk --- Winner of this race last year so gets the track and the distance nice price today currently about 10/1 so i will be more than happier to take the chance here ...

[Spooner]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April

Osteopathic Remedy 3.35 Thrisk --- Winner of this race last year so gets the track and the distance nice price today currently about 10/1 so i will be more than happier to take the chance here ...

As BH said to you yesterday more reasoning is needed, plenty of course/distance winners in that race so most of them will like the track and distance. Any other reasons as to why you fancy the horse? I don't think you'll be allowed to carry on entering BBOTD if you fail to give reasoning properly, we don't expect an essay but something more then just trip and distance will suit please. :ok Sorry, I also see you haven't added if its E/W or win, nor a price with a bookmaker, don't forget that. :ok

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 3.45 Newmarket Borderlescott is a horse I love, always gives his all and rarely runs a bad race here. Morris on board which is a plus and the ground is perfect for him today. Bound to be held up just off the pace and hopefully come through with a late rattle to win this. 1 Pt win 11/1 Bet365

[DC]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 5:40 Goodwood BARNUM 0.5pts e/w @ 12-1 Bet365 (BOG) Beaten a head last time out over today's trip and it's the same class of race. I'm hoping that a reproduction of the previous run will see this one in the frame. At 12-1 it's worth a chance that the switch from dirt to turf won't make a difference. Mark Johnston has a great record at Goodwood too :hope

[Zenyatta]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 2-00 Newmarket ...CHAPTER AND VERSE....0.5 PTS EACH WAY @ SP Ran some cracking races lately and will love the trip and ground, this horse is very talented and jhas a great chance E/W. Last time out had a pipe opener at Kempton, the fact he got well beaten indicates he was no where near fit, todays the big day. IMO he is listed class.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 7:45 Hotham @ Doncaster - Hasn't been racing well since winning twice at York last year and was very disappointing on seasonal reappearance.Has been quite high in the weights but seems to be gradually dropping back to a winning mark and is now off 2lb lower than its last win.The jockey that day Barry McHugh takes the ride today and a drop of class can get involved at a big price. 0.5pt E/W @ 28/1 Coral

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 14:00 Newmarket Tasty looking handicap to open the card today and a case could be made for many of this field and it really was hard to dwindle down the field bt I am going to take my chance with the winner of this race last year Tartan Gigha. Mark Johnston's 6 year old is not the most consistent of horses but from 43 runs he has won 6 times, finished 2nd 9 times and finished 3rd twice. Two of those wins came in this grade last year where he won this race off a 1lb lower mark than he runs off today and he also won the Investec mile at Epsom off a mark of 100 (4lbs higher than he runs off today) over the trip he tackles today which he also won in 2009 off a mark of 88. His form going into today's race is not as strong as his form leading up to the race last year when he won it but he did run over a mile and 1m2f to prepare for this as well as a run over the trip at Wolverhampton which he has also done this season so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him bounce back today. Joe Fanning has won on board three times previously so he knows the horse well and more importantly how to win on him. His only other run over course and distance came in October 2009 when he only went down by a nose in second place off a mark of 90 in the Cambridgeshire so his form at the track is good even though he has only had the two runs here. Similar efforts of any of them two runs today should see him go close once again and at a decent price I will be backing him each way. E/W Tartan Gigha @ 16/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 2.30 Newmarket Laaheb - Group 3 winner last term and showed improvement when 4th in Sheema classic at Meydan last time. Trip and ground fine and drops back into a Group 2 today 85/40 VC Bet, 1 pt win

[zoolander]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April Newmarket 3:10 Happy Today 200-1 BET365(BOG) 0.5pts EW I think Brian Meehans horse has been overlooked a bit here, not even mentioned as a contender. Has won over a mile on GF ground obviously not at this level but his close second behind Dordogne over 9f here two weeks ago in a class 1 caught my eye. Travelled well and looked a serious contender but found nothing the last stretch, the mile will be ideal for him today. He has the benefit over most of having a recent run and course experience which may be crucial. Has decent place claims as i cant see much in it behind Frankel.

[the finster]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 2.15 g/wood. 1m 4f listed fillies. 8 run here, 4 runners officially rated 103 +. pollys mark was somewhat fortunate to win listed fillies race last backend and carries 3 lb penalty which will make this tough for her. gertrude bell won fto last year, then won cheshire oaks and finished a respectable 6th in epsom oaks btn less than 7l (promoted to 5th) dissapointed in the ribblesdale and hasnt been seen since. gallic star won 1m listed race at pontefract to finish her 2yo season and was highly tried in listed/gp 3 races as a 3yo running well without winning, she finished last season overtried in gd 1 at woodbine. appeared over inadequate 9f at meydan in feb raced prominently and faded. pink symphony won her maiden fto last year and ran respectably in listed company for the rest of the year, 1st run this season was 1m 2f listed at kempton where she was beaten 3rd by shamali rated 99 and resentful angel rated 87. at 8/1 b365 who are paying 1/4 odds, GALLIC STAR looks a great e/w bet.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 3:10 Newmarket - Saamidd Three rides with Frankie, now has Mickael Barzalona on board. Two wins on turf and a loss on softer ground, so I think the return to firmer going will do him well. Jockey won a listed in France yesterday and has recorded some good results in the UK recently. 28/1 ew - vc bet (bog)

[GrimmReaper]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April Hi There, I am choosing:- 1pt on Simenon @ Goodwood @ 3:30 4.4/1 to win via Betfair Not came first in last 6 races but came 3rd in last race so on the way up:-) Also if you spell it's name backwards it says 'None Mis'. So maybe it won't miss this time - We'll see:-)

[tjgreenway]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 4:25 Uttoxeter | Nicky Tam | 1pt WIN () I'm opting for Nicky Tam to follow up on his victory over this distance at Carlisle a week ago and make it a hattrick. He jumped well and won well enough there, so a repeat performance should see off a reasonably weak field with the ground suiting. Cobbler's Queen and Jacko's Boy are a threat, but the latter hasn't been particularly impressive when chasing, and JB could maybe do with a slight drop in trip.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April 4.20 Newmarket: Cadeaux Pearl 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 VC BOG Type of horse Dandy Nicholls does well with and on first run for the trainer may be worth chancing at decent odds. Was a flop in a 5f listed race for Hannon when last seen but with the 'sprint king' Nicholls and based on maiden form, may prove quite well handicapped returned to what may be ideal conditions over 6f on rattling fast ground. Would be no surprise to see the horse go close with Billy Cray good for his additional 3lbs claim.

[tjgreenway]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April

4:25 Uttoxeter | Nicky Tam | 1pt WIN (5/2, Stan James) I'm opting for Nicky Tam to follow up on his victory over this distance at Carlisle a week ago and make it a hattrick. He jumped well and won well enough there, so a repeat performance should see off a reasonably weak field with the ground suiting. Cobbler's Queen and Jacko's Boy are a threat, but the latter hasn't been particularly impressive when chasing, and JB could maybe do with a slight drop in trip.

Ah, I've hit Submit too early. If it's too late to take a price on this one, no worries at all, but if not, I'll take 5/2 with Stan James. Sorry about that!

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April FURY 3.10 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Needs to find quite a bit with the favourite, but not with the others and open to any amount of improvement. Only needs the favourtie to have an off day and should be able to go close. The trip and ground should be fine and with a fast run race he should go well at decent odds. I'll take he 16/1 with Paddy Power.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April The Fox's Decree 3.15 Uttoxeter. 0.5 points each way. I like the fact the visor goes for chasing debut, and like the fact he's schooled well enough at home coming into this (apparently). The trip's fine and goes on this quick ground, so with getting in off his hurdling mark, he could go very well. 17/2 with Stan James for comp purposes.