Summer Racing 2011

[BillyHills]

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 Not a bad card at Newton Abbot for a Monday and the feature is a £9,000 handicap hutdle and I like the look of the Henderson second string Owen Glendower, they have the fav Ghimaar too but he is unproven in this class and maybe being lined up for some staying handicaps on the flat. Owen Glendower ran in some of the top novice races and was 4th to Cue Card before being slighlty disappointing at Sandown over further. He then ran well back at Cheltenham when third to the progressive Paintball and this looks easier and should stay around here. At 10/1 he looks a bit big to me and looks a value EW bet. Later on I fancy Diamanpeg to follow up his win last week, he led for most of the race and pulled nicely clear, he steps down in trip but that shouldnt pose any problems and the opposition is pretty moderate. 420 NA: Diamanpeg 1.75pts (7/2 William Hill) 320 NA: Owen Glendower 1pt EW (10/1 Bet365)

[bowles10]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 its going well Graham, keep up the good work

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 Cheers Rob, two near misses yesterday! 420 NA: Diamanpeg 1.75pts (7/2 William Hill) 2nd 320 NA: Owen Glendower 1pt EW (10/1 Bet365) 4th ____________________ 410 Southwell: Kings Realm 3.75pts (2/1 WH) Taking on the hot fav Cygnet here as he can make errors and hasnt looked a great one for a battle the last twice. Kings Realm is rated 113 and has been contesting much better races than this, admittedly in handicaps. His two 4ths behind Laustra Bad and Via Galilei are decent efforts and the last novice he ran in was when runner up to the progressive Paintball. The overall form looks slightly better than Cygnets to me, he was second to Branston last time who struggles to stay yet still went back past Cygnet after being headed.

[BillyHills]

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 720 Worcester: Turtlethomas 3.75pts 3rd _______________ Need a winner and cant make my mind up between a couple today so will have to back both; 415 Wetherby: Royal Max 1.75pts (7/2 Bet365) Looks a tricky race on paper but some of these are either badly handicapped or out of form and Royal Max looks to have an opportunity to notch up another course win. He won here in October off 106 and now gets in here just 2 lbs higher and was interesting when he won he needed a really strong ride from Scudamore from the front, today he gets McCoy and will try to lead them a merry dance. Film Festival may mess things up with trying to make the running himself but that one is coming back over hurdles after a spell chasing and probably wants further anyway. Was much bigger this morning than the 7/2 he is just now so he may drift back out before the off, seems about right taking in the AP factor. 305 Wetherby: Dontpaytheferryman 2pts (15/8 Betfred) Small novice chases and the hot fav Montoyas Son is one I like to be against since his novice hurdling days, he can be useful on his day but i've seen the other side of him and wouldnt want to be taking short prices about him. Dontpaytheferryman looks the type to take him on with, very tough and consistant and will like the trip more than the fav who wants further. Brian Ellison continues to find races for this 6yo and Choc Thornton comes up to take the ride. Hopefully they can get Montoyas Son off the bridle and make him think twice about going through with his effort.

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 415 Wetherby: Royal Max WON 305 Wetherby: Dontpaytheferryman Lost New Stake 3.54pts _____________________ 840 Towcester: True Blue 3.54pts (6/4 Bet365) Poor racing today for me and one or two of the Towcester races are 50/50 chances so the Tim Vaughan newcomer True Blue will do for me in the bumper race. He has won twice in the Point sphere winning very impressively last time and bought for £40,000. This 2 miles may be a bit sharp but the track will make up for that as it takes some getting up the hill. Henderson has a runner also making his debut which keeps the price sensible and thats been on the drift so pretty confident True Blue can take this on the way to much better things.

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 840 Towcester: True Blue 4th ____________________ 345 Curr: Dubawi Gold 3.54pts (5/2 Bet365) The great racing calender shines again with no jump racing on a saturday yet races on the sand at Lingfield and three meetings in the north on the flat? Anyhow, it looks a very tricky Saturday and will side with Dubawi Gold in the Guineas at the Curragh, his price is a bit of value now after being a bit short earlier in the week. He did get trounced at Newmarket by Frankel but at the end of the day he ran up to his best which a lot didnt. His only poor run was in the Racing Post Trophy when he tried to lead, since being held up he has looked a better horse and as long as he settles should be able to pounce late on and take this in the absence of any Irish wonder horses this season.

[BillyHills]

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 City Ground looks quite fairly handicapped in the 4.20 at Kelso, he beat Priceless Art at Sedgefield on only his second start over hurdles and then looked the winner going to the last when out pointed by the useful (at times) Scriptwriter over 2m4f, he just may have failed to last home up the hill there. A slight drop back in trip and a track that will suit should see him in a better light. The stable are going well and Jake Greenall takes a handy 7lbs off his back, he gets a 4lb age allowance too so everything is in his favour today. 420 Kelso: City Ground 3.54pts 2/1 (bet365)

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 420 Kelso: City Ground lost (drifted from 7/4 to 7/2!) __________________ 740 Windsor; Listed race over 6f and fav Bated Breath looks a worthy favourite after a nice win at Haydock last time and looks the type to improve into this grade. The ground is slightly quicker today but has won on Gd/Fm so that shouldnt be a problem. The danger looks like being Triple Aspect who after one or two disappointing runs ran a blinder when 5th at York recently behind Delegator, finishing strongly that day. Ryan Moore takes the ride and the horse won this race last season. 740 Windsor 2.54pts Bated Breath 11/8 Stan James 1pts Triple Aspect 9/2 Stan James

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 740 Windsor 2.54pts Bated Breath WON 1pts Triple Aspect 2nd New stake: 3.33pts _________________ 815 Hnt: Captain Sully 1.50pts EW/ 0.33pts Win (7/1 Bet365) Cant see why this one has drifted to 7/1? He won here last time beating The Strawberry One who has gone on to win twice since, he struggled when first coming to England and ran two or three below par races but has improved with the better ground conditions. Takes on the Henderson hotpot Brunston tonight who beat Cygnet last time out, always thought Brunston struggled to stay and still not convinced he's that good and is poor value at 4/7. They have backed Kidlat this morning which is interesting from the Kim Bailey yard, he has been running well on the flat and has just one run over timber to his name where he was tailed off, that was 18 months ago so there must be a doubt as to why they havnt ran him over hurdles since then.

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 815 Hnt: Captain Sully Lost Never travelling, disappointing. ________________________ 200 Newton Abbot: Mawsem 3.33pts (5/4 Bet365) The betting suggests this is a two horse race, not sure about that but Mawsem beat his market rival Joker Choker the last time they met quite comfortably and also has a 7lb pull as the Henderson horse carries a penalty for winning a handicap. Mawsem hasnt been finishing his races off and cheek pieces are fitted today to help him settle and save his energy. Good chance to get off the mark today.

[BillyHills]

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 630 San: Magic City 3.33pts (5/4 Corals) Held up last time when beaten by Bannock, given too much to do and should have won. Expect him to take revenge here and to be more positively ridden. His debut win at Newbury was exceptional and the form has been upheld many times since, in some eyes he has become a little disappointing but have a feeling after tonight he will be fav for Royal Ascot. Tempted to back Workforce as well, I know many think he will need the run but the price for a horse like him in a Group 3 is very generous?

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 630 San: Magic City 3rd, looks a disappointing sort now. __________________________ 755 Stratford: Knighton Combe 2.33pts (4/1 WH) Bobby Magern 0.50pts EW (12/1 VCBet) Interesting handicap over 3m3f, Haldibari won over C/D last time when very well backed, he beat Knighton Combe into second by a couple of lengths and now the runner up is much better off at the weights and is due to go up 5lbs next week so today is his chance to get a win over hurdles, he has won 4 times over fences. Haldibari has it all to do at the weights, he has an 8lb rise for his second at Worcester plus the 7lb penalty for winning that race round here last time where he was running off just 102, that rating wouldnt get him in this race today and runs off 117, they have booked McCoy to get every ounce out of him as he can run lazily but just cant have him on these terms. The top two look to have too much weight and the danger may come from either Dais Return or Bobbie Magern at the bottom of the handicap.

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 830 Stratford: Kilburn 2.50pts (100/30 PP) Carter 0.83pts (9/1 WH) Not much time today, I like the way Kilburn won on his debut last time, he quickened well and won easily, will suit this track and was the best of these on the level. The top one has a double penalty which may stop him and Carter may be the danger. The Bowen horse may be dangerous but fell last time on his first run so may be best watched.

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 Will update later, not on my own pc at the moment. 210 Utt Fashionable Gal (11/10 Bet365) Ran really well the other day when winning easily at Huntingdon, always travelled well that day and should defy the penalty. Stable going really well and the only danger looks to be Kim Baileys newcomer who won a bumper last time.

[BillyHills]

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 Two jumps meetings to look at and I like the chances of Charlie Mann's Not In The Clock in the 2.45 novice hurdle. Dashing Doc is fav for Evan Williams on his third to Abergavenny, he may want it firmer than today and if any rain comes he could be in trouble. Not In The Clock has ran some really good races and not been that far behind the likes of Kumbeshwar, Paintball and Looks Like Slim who all would be heavily odds on here. He tried a handicap last time but it was very competative and ran well until the last couple of hurdles, this is much weaker and he must go close here. 245 Cartmel: Not In The Clock 3.08pts 2/1 Bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 245 Cartmel: Not In The Clock Lost Beaten after a mile! Well backed too? __________________________ Ffos Las tonight sees a decent handicap hurdle and Stratford winner Praxiteles goes for a quick double with a 7lb penalty. That race was full of decent types so the form looks very solid, he won going away and now races off 129, his highest but has run well in good races off 127 and 125 so he isnt massively over burdened here. The race is a weaker contest than Saturday's and the young conditional jockey takes 5lbs off. Midnight Opera could run well at a big price for a stable in fine form. 715 Ffos: Praxiteles 2.83pts (3/1 Betfred) Midnight Opera 0.25pts (14/1 PP)

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 715 Ffos: Praxiteles 3rd Midnight Opera non runner ____________________________ A Loss on the month which isnt good, lets hope June is better!! April: +18.36 May: -24.65 Totals

Bets	43
Won	14
Strike Rate	32.56%
Stakes	119.91
Profit	-6.29
Yield	-5.25%

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 In the Cartmel maiden hurdle at 2.50 we seem to have a two horse race between Hannah Jaques and Oh So Beautiful. I like the latter from the Lucinda Russel yard, she recieves all the allowances here and last time ran at Perth when 5th to Fiddlers Reel, the form has worked out well since and this is a poor race. Hannah Jaques is improving and will be dangerous but her 4th last time doesnt look that good and she may want 3m on soft to see her deliver. She is fav at the minute so the value lies with the selection. 250 Car: Oh So Beautiful 3.08pts (5/2 Boyles)

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 250 Car: Oh So Beautiful Won 11/4 If it was always this easy eh!:lol New Stake 3.07pts _______________________________ 800 Wetherby: Kings Realm 2.50pts(2/1 Bet365) Lizt 0.57pts (11/2 VCBet) Poor jump racing today but I like the look of Kings Realm in the claimer. He ran second last time to Cygnet at Southwell, he was beaten fair and square that day but the form looks good enough for this poor contest. He is up for a claiming price of £18,000 compared to some of these that are in for £4,000 and on handicap ratings looks about 5lbs well in to me. Thought it would be around 6/4 mark but they may come for Lizt who was 5th on his debut at Perth and could improve, he was rated 85 on the flat and looks the obvious danger.

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 800 Wetherby: Kings Realm Won Lizt Lost New Stake 3.20pts ____________________________ 210 Epsom: Wannabe King 0.60pts EW (11/1 Hills) 140 Epsom: Antara 2pts (5/4 PP) No jumps today so will go with a horse that went into my notebook after his last run at York behind St.Moritz. He was covered up out the back and found all sorts of bother and the made some late headway. Not a great system to follow 'unlucky' horses but before that won at Sandown on his reappearance. Really like C/D winners here as well and gets in on a fair rating of 98, has ran off higher so not asking to much for a good run here. In the first race Antara goes for a reapeat win after being successful here last season, has had a break just as she did last year and is clear on official ratings. She has been contesting much better races than this and only Timepiece looks to have a chance on bare form lines, not sure the track or trip are ideal for her so happy to take the short odds about Antara.

[BillyHills]

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 Off to Hexham for the bet of the day, a novice chase that looks between just two of them and Majestic Mayhem is the confident selction over Montoya's Son. 11/10 at the moment which to be honest I didnt expect, thought he would be around 8/11 so it represents a bit of value to me. He made a very nice chase debut at Sedgefield, jumped great and was a better hurdler than his rival anyway. Montoya's Son has been know to be temperamental and i have opposed him a few times before, he has won round here before and did win at Carlisle on firm ground so he does have ideal conditions, i just dont like the horse and last time he was beaten when coming down so happy to be in the Majestic Mayhem camp today. 245 Hexham: Majestic Mayhem 3.25pts (11/10 Corals, Boyles)

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 245 Hexham: Majestic Mayhem Won Backed in to 4/6 and hosed up.

Bets	48
Won	18
Strike Rate	37.50%
Stakes	132.51
Profit	11.74
Yield	8.86%

New stake now: 3.35pts

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 400 Perth: Parsons Punch 1pt EW (5/1 Bet365) 330 Perth: Definite All Star 1.35pts (3/1 Bet365) Leap of faith with this one but worth a crack in a poor race. Showed no form at all until two runs ago when staying on well under a paitient Timmy Murphy ride, say no more. Last he got loose going to the start and then had every chance 3 out when falling with Graham Lee, he opts for the ride again and off a mark of 86 should be able to get involved this time, the trainer does well at Perth and has tried to get strong jockeys for this one in the past so presumably he's a monkey! For the second bet i'm going to side with Definite All Star from the Gordon Elliot yard, i'm convinced this horse keeps a bit for himself however should be able to achieve much more than a rating of 115 which he races off today. Jason McGuire takes the ride and it looks a pretty weak contest. If he can get into a nice rhythm he could come there on the bridle, just a question of if he can find anything close home, worth a try at the price.

[BillyHills]

Re: Summer Racing 2011 400 Perth: Parsons Punch WON 330 Perth: Definite All Star 3rd New Stake: 3.49 ___________________________________ I took on Joker Choker last time and came out a poor second, the horse has improved but still think he's over rated a bit, he has a double penalty here and win or lose I feel we must oppose him again. Lava Lamp is only a 4 year old and made his debut in Grade 2 juvenile event at Kempton in which Zarkandar won, he was beaten 30 lengths in fifth that day but was still a fair effort for his first run. He then went and won a weak race at Plumpton very easily and last time ran in decent race at Stratford where he was the only one to give the impressive Carter a race. He looks like he's still improving and this step up in trip is exactly what he wants, he stayed two miles on the level well. I'll be surprised if he cant surpass his rating of 121 and win this event. 345 N.Abbot: Lava Lamp 3.49pts (15/8 Bet365)