The Quackers school of thought...

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 6.40 Windsor Red Mercury 1pt e/w 25/1 Bet365 This horse travelled the best last time out on his handicap debut but din't quite get home. The drop in trip should suit here and I expect him to run a big race at good odds. Alan King does quite well with the few flat runners he does have and this horse has been dropped 2lbs from his last run which was not that bad at all. Think the handicapper has given him a massive chance in a race that looks a lot more open than the betting would suggest.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... Wow how bad was that! 1 more for tonight. 7.40 Windsor Libranno 1pt win 7/1 Ladbrokes Libranno ran well last time out in this grade and Windsor does suit front runners so he could make all in this race. Bated Breath is definitely a sprinter worth following this season but the first 2 races have gone against the favourites so I am happy to take this one on. Libranno's best trip is over 6f and he should be able to be competitive in this field. Richard Hughes does not always choose right, and Catlin is a perfectly adequate replacement. Perfect Tribute that beat Libranno last time out looks a very talented horse but I don't think there is anything of that calibre in this race. Hopeful of a big run

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... Mangham gave me a little profit to play with for the day but ended up evens stevens. Should have backed Bated Breath as I backed him last time out. Red Mercury never really got into the race and was always stuck behind a wall of horses. Worth watching IMO. I like 2 David Barron horses tomorrow in Sharp Sovereign and Suits Me so going to have a look through their races and see if they are worth backing

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 3.40 Ripon Suits Me 2.5pts e/w 8/1 bet365 I am a big fan of David Barron and I like the look of Suits Me here. After only 2 runs for the stable, Suits Me has looked well in both races finishing 2nd and 4th. The 2nd came over CD where he was just outstayed by Snow Bay who got first run on Suits me. They both stayed on well together that day but Suits Me meets that rival today on much better terms and I expect the form to be reversed. Last time out Suits Me ran a cracker to finish 4th in a hot handicap at York over 10f. He travelled the best for a long way in that race only to be outstayed in the last couple of furlongs. In that race he was only beaten by 2 horses higher rated than him and a very progressive horse from the Roger Varian stable. Suits Me is best when able to dictate the pace so it is surprising that he has ran so well in his 2 starts for David Barron as he not been able to get to the front. He is drawn in stall 4 today so there is every chance he will be able to get to the front. He brakes well and is always quick in to stride, so I expect him to be able to get out and get to the front. Snow Bay and Ginger Jack are drawn inside of Suits Me and both of them also like to lead but I am confident Makin will blast out and bag the rail. Suits Me is a better horse on the all weather but his run last time out at York was as good as he has ever produced on the turf and there is every chance Barron can eke out a little more from the horse on only his third run for the stable. There will be plenty of opposition for the lead in this race and it is possible that the front runners will set it up for something coming from behind but Suits Me is a strong traveller and has the stamina for further. I think if he can get to the front and set his own pace, he might be able to string these out. In both his races for David Barron he has been the last horse to come off the bridle and he does also battle well for pressure. I have already said I think he will reverse form with Snow Bay. Bowmaker attempts this trip for the first time but I see no reason why it should being about improvement from that horse considering his last run. Dubai Dynamo is a horse I like but he has gone up a couple of lbs for his 2nd last time out and I think he may just struggle in this race. Saint Pierre looked progressive last season but pulled like a train on his return to action and may do better here if he can settle. Reel Buddy Star races off a career high mark here but I see this one as the main danger. He ran a cracker last time out over 7f to finish second behind a gambled on horse from the Howard Johnson yard. The step up in trip will suit that horse as 1m is probably his best distance. Lord Aeryn is likely to go off favourite for the race but I think he is worth taking on. This is tougher than the race he finished 2nd in last time out and he has gone up 4lbs for that effort. He does come from the Richard Fahey stable though, and has the champion on board but I think he will come up short. Bea Remembered is the interesting horse in this race on his second start for Brian Meehan. He showed some good form in Ireland last year, and although he didn’t show much on his first start for the stable in a hot handicap last time out, he is entitled to come on for that run. I am hoping Suits Me gets to the front here but if he doesn’t he has shown he can still run well. He has run 2 good races for the stable and deserves to get his head in front. David Barron would love to get a winner at his local track and this would appear to be his best chance. The stable form has been a bit in and out but they will be buoyed by the win of Hitchens at the weekend. I think money will come for this horse tomorrow and he may end up disputing favouritism come race time. He is already as low as 11/2 in some places. I am pretty hopeful of a big run and am going to have a max each way bet on the horse.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... I don't really know what to make of Suits Me today. Probably got caught up at the beginning trying to get to the front. Ended up having to battle with a couple others and tired late on. Very disappointing, especially when I have been following Ruth Carr since her resurgence and backed Dubai Dynamo last time! Bets - 102 Wins - 13 Losses - 77 Placed - 12 Bank - 122.52pts P/L - +22.52pts

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 4.25 Ayr Amtaar 1pt e/w 12/1 William Hill Fitness has to be taken on trust with this horse but there is every chance she could turn out to be better than these. She has a nice pedigree and plenty of soft ground influences so tomorrows conditions should suit. Her best runs to date have come on the all weather and in particular last time out when finishing 1.5 lengths behind Fighter Boy. She is flattered by that distance but Fighter Boy is now rated 107. The highest rated in this race is 67 so if Amtaar is fit, I will be disappointed if she cant get involved. The booking of Paul Hannagan suggests that they could be expecting a big run from the horse. Bit risky considering she has been off for so long but if ready to go, I think we might see a much improved performance on this softer ground.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 3.15 Ayr The Nifty Fox 2pts win 11/2 William Hill The Nifty Fox is very consistent but hasn't won for a while now. He has a nice swing in the weights with both Strike Up The Band (8lbs taking into account he had a claimer on board last time) and La Toreador (6lbs) who he finished less than 2 lengths behind last time out. The cut in the ground will suit The Nifty Fox here and he should run a good race. He runs for one of the top trainers at the course and has the aid of Graham Gibbons who I like.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.40 Ayr Saxonette 1p e/w 12/1 William Hill The stable are not in the best of form but I think this horse has a big chance dropped in grade. Was beaten a long way into 4th last time out but the winner that day has won again off 68. Saxonette was caught widest of all throughout the whole race that day and this is the worst place to be at Newcastle. She ran well enough that day but the ground may have been to lively as well. The ground today at Ayr should suit much more and she has also been dropped another 2lbs after her run last time out. It is surely a matter of time before this stable start to bang in some winners and they have found a very weak race for this horse. Hopeful of a big run!

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 9.00 Beverley Lemon Drop Red 2pts win 4/1 Coral Favourite here looks set for another big run but I like the look of Lemon Drop Red upped in trip. Was first to come under pressure last time out at this course but stayed on very strongly in the final stages to suggest this extra 2f will suit. The booking of the champion as well suggests they expect a big run from the horse.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 7.30 Beverley Queen's Revenge 2pts win 9/2 Bet 365 Queen's Revenge ran a cracker on debut to win. Although she missed the break quite badly and was well behind after the first furlong she started to make up the ground well despite looking green. She cut her way through the pack with the jockey never having to go for the whip. She should come on plenty for that run and wouldn't need to improve much to take this. If she gets a good break I can see her stepping up on what was a promising debut and taking this.

[cpo]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... Hugh Taylor has tipped up 2 of these today! Boro 10/1 for the championship next year... Get on!

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... -10pts on the day Another disappointing day with only the Nifty Fox looking like it might win. Ah well better racing to come tomorrow night at Sandown.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 7.40 Sandown Cavalryman 2pts e/w 12/1 William Hill The more I look at this race the more I fancy this horse. I don’t know why as he hasn’t shown his best for a long time now but if he can recapture his 3 year old form for Andre Fabre, he would have a massive chance here. Stoute has already issued a warning over Worforce saying he will need this run. The horse is dropping back in distance and also has a penalty to contend with. Think this may be the only time he is worth taking on this season. The race is only a group 3 contest but for me it has a classier feel to it. I think 3 horses can be discounted straight away as they will surely be outclassed here. The likes of Poet, Distant Memories and Black Spirit will surely find this too tough. Sri Putra has shown some classy form when finishing 2nd to Twice Over in group 1 company but he was quite disappointing on his reappearance. If the market principles run true to form then Sri Putra may struggle to land a blow. Jan Vermeer looks set for a big run dropping down to 1m 2f. He was sent off a strong favourite for the Derby that Workforce won but never got into contention. The drop back in distance looks a wise move, but some horses from this yard have tended to need the run so there is chance that might be the case with Jan Vermeer. He has multiple group 1 entries this season and they might just be using this race as a prep run for his bigger engagements to come. Elusive Pimpernel ha to prove himself over this distance after a decent enough effort on his return and Afsare has to put a very disappointing effort behind him at this level. Horses from the Cumani stable have needed their first run so there is every chance we will see a much better Afsare in this race. That just leaves me with my selection. Cavalryman’s 3 year old form in France was out of the top draw, and like many other horses he hasn’t quite shown the same form for Saeed Bin Suroor. He is already a group 1 winner and finished 3rd in the Derby won by the brilliant Sea the Stars. His best run since switching stables came last year in the Coronation Cup where he travelled extremely well and was constantly hampered when trying to make a move. I am positive he would have got very close to the classy Fame and Glory. This run proved the ability is still there and they have entered him up in multiple group 1’s this year so they obviously think they still have a talented horse to work with this season. The stable have already said that he will come on for the run and might just need this but they said the same about Delegator who won very well on his reappearance. Cavalryman is dropping down in class after 11 races at a higher level. His last 7 runs have come at group 1 level and although he has rarely looked liked winning any of these, the calibre of opposition he faces here is mostly not up to that level. The forecast conditions tomorrow will not matter, as he has proven himself on all types of ground. It is a big ‘if’ regarding this horse but if he does find some of his old sparkle he could run a very big race against some rivals who may just need this outing. He is proven at a higher class and with Frankie doing the steering I am happy to take my chances with him on his reappearance. Come on the boys in blue!

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 8.15 Sandown Neebras 5pts win 11/4 Bet365 This horse is a max bet for me tonight. Some great racing at Sandown but I have waited for this one to reappear since his last run. For me this horses last run was mightily impressive even though it was just a 3 runner event. He ran a quick time and pulled right away from the other 2 horses with the minimum of fuss and was heavily eased in the last 150yds. This represents a step up in class but this horse should be able to take it in his stride. He has some big entries for the season and they will know where they stand with this horse after this race. I fully expect him to be too good for these. The main danger looks to be Fury but I have slight doubts of the form of the stable at the moment and think this horse is worth taking on. Tazahum's form was let down by Captain Bertie at Chester and I don't think this horse will be good enough to trouble the top 2 in the market. He also has the burden of Richard Hills. The Hannon horse looks progressive but I think he will struggle against these with his penalty. Neebras could have recorded an extremely quick time last time out if he had seriously been asked a question which is what will probably happen in this race. If turning up in the same mood, he will be very tough to beat. The only slight doubt is he sometimes starts very slowly. First time out this season, he lost all chance at the start. He was better last time out and if he can break well in this race, I hope he proves too classy for these.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 7.05 Sandown Blue Bajan 4pts win 7/2 William Hill Thanks to JTW for the trends. All but 3 of these horses can be discounted on the fact they aren't rated high enough. Of the 3 remaining Holberg can be discounted due to the poor record of favourites in the race. Blue Bajan beat Buxted last time out and I see no reason why the form should be reversed. Blue Bajan is improving with every run for his new stable and he can take this after going very close last time out in the Yorkshire Cup.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought...

2.40 Ayr Saxonette 1p e/w 12/1 William Hill The stable are not in the best of form but I think this horse has a big chance dropped in grade. Was beaten a long way into 4th last time out but the winner that day has won again off 68. Saxonette was caught widest of all throughout the whole race that day and this is the worst place to be at Newcastle. She ran well enough that day but the ground may have been to lively as well. The ground today at Ayr should suit much more and she has also been dropped another 2lbs after her run last time out. It is surely a matter of time before this stable start to bang in some winners and they have found a very weak race for this horse. Hopeful of a big run!

pffft rubbish yesterday and then wins easy today by 4 lengths

[cpo]

Re: The Quackers school of thought...

7.05 Sandown Blue Bajan 4pts win 7/2 William Hill Thanks to JTW for the trends. All but 3 of these horses can be discounted on the fact they aren't rated high enough. Of the 3 remaining Holberg can be discounted due to the poor record of favourites in the race. Blue Bajan beat Buxted last time out and I see no reason why the form should be reversed. Blue Bajan is improving with every run for his new stable and he can take this after going very close last time out in the Yorkshire Cup.

Good start to the night :clap

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.20 Newmarket Biaraafa 1pt e/w 14/1 Bet365 A very tough race to start the day at Newmarket with a few of these making their handicap debuts but I like the Michael Bell horse. She won at a big price on her return to action this year at Yarmouth and then ran well last time out over 7f at Newbury. That was a better race and she finished extremely well that day suggesting that this step up to a mile would suit her. She gets in here off a featherweight with the jockey taking off another 7lbs so could be underestimated. The likes of Dimension, Dubai Queen and in particular Ektibaas look to have a good chance but 2 of them are making their handicap debuts so you don't really know how they are going to run. Although this is much tougher Biaraafa has already proven she can run well off this mark. The step up in trip plus the jockey's claim should see her go close.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 4.00 Newmarket License To Till 2pts e/w 16/1 Coral Wrote my reasoning last night and my internet connection died on me. This horse finished last season well winning at Pontefract in a class 2 over this distance and then winning off 88 at Dundalk. He was all out that day to suggest that extra furlong didn't really suit so I think he has valid excuses for his poor runs thus far this season. A return to this trip should suit and there is every chance he could get an early lead here. Plenty of the field hold no secrets from the handicapper with the only exception being Mountain Hiker. Shavansky and Bonfire Knight look to be the main dangers but I think License to Till can bounce back here with everything to suit.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 3.25 Leopardstown Glor Na Mara 1.5pts e/w 11/1 Coral This looks a great race and a much better contest than the race last year in which Six of Hearts won. I can't see that horse being good enough to take this. The four to concentrate on look to be Zoffany, Imperial Roma, Bewitched and Glor Na Mara. Imperial Rome has already beaten the selection but disappointed in France last time out so has to bounce back here. Bewitched looks very progressive but his best form has come over 6f and his only run at 7f was very disappointing. Zoffany looks to be the main danger to the selection after a very promising campaign last year. He beat Glor Na Mara by half a length over 6f before going on to finish over 5 lengths behind Pathfork over 7f. If he is ready to go first time up, he should be tough to beat but he did have a minor setback earlier in the year so there is every chance he may need this. Glor Na Mara is still a maiden but has some very high class form. He got within 1.5 lengths to Pathfork and finished just 5 lengths behind Frankel at Newmarket, both at 7f. I think Glor Na Mara is more suited to this distance than some of the market leaders. Although he has disappointed so far this season in his 2 runs, he did travel well last time out before fading. There is every chance he could improve again on his run last time out and get involved here. He also races in the first time headgear which could also aid him. After 2 runs, this horse should be fully race fit now, but has to prove he has trained on. I think he will do that today by running a big race and going close in this.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 3.25 Leopardstown Glor Na Mara 1.5pts e/w 11/1 Coral This looks a great race and a much better contest than the race last year in which Six of Hearts won. I can't see that horse being good enough to take this. The four to concentrate on look to be Zoffany, Imperial Roma, Bewitched and Glor Na Mara. Imperial Rome has already beaten the selection but disappointed in France last time out so has to bounce back here. Bewitched looks very progressive but his best form has come over 6f and his only run at 7f was very disappointing. Zoffany looks to be the main danger to the selection after a very promising campaign last year. He beat Glor Na Mara by half a length over 6f before going on to finish over 5 lengths behind Pathfork over 7f. If he is ready to go first time up, he should be tough to beat but he did have a minor setback earlier in the year so there is every chance he may need this. Glor Na Mara is still a maiden but has some very high class form. He got within 1.5 lengths to Pathfork and finished just 5 lengths behind Frankel at Newmarket, both at 7f. I think Glor Na Mara is more suited to this distance than some of the market leaders. Although he has disappointed so far this season in his 2 runs, he did travel well last time out before fading. There is every chance he could improve again on his run last time out and get involved here. He also races in the first time headgear which could also aid him. After 2 runs, this horse should be fully race fit now, but has to prove he has trained on. I think he will do that today by running a big race and going close in this.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... Another poor few days really with the only plus point being Blue Bajan. Glor Na Mara ran much better than he has so far this season but Bewitched looks one to follow this season. Bets - 113 Wins - 14 Losses - 86 Placed - 13 Bank - 116.15pts P/L - +16.15pts

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 4.10 Redcar Mirrored 5pts win 13/2 William Hill I have been looking at the trends for previous years of this race. Firstly an official rating of between 91-98 has been the trend for the previous 8 years. This rules out Desert Romance, Prince of Johanne, Pendragon, Breakheart, Jo'Burg and Merchant of Dubai. Overall the trends look to favour those in the low 90's with only 1 winner winning off 95, 96 and 98. The age trend is also pretty important with the winners all being aged 4-6. This rules out Nanton and Halicarassus. Another thing I have noticed of the trends is that it is importat to have finished at least 4th last time out. Only 1 winner in the last 8 years finished worse than 4th last time out and went on to win this race. This rules out Jutland, Sarrsar, Sirvino, Bikini Babe and Ingleby Spirit. That left me with just 2 in Mirrored and Arlequin. I was quite taken by Mirrored's win last time out and just favoured that one. This horse has gone very close off higher marks than 91 in the past and although he disappointed towards the end of last season, he returned with a very promising effort and I think he can improve again with that run under his belt. Fancied runners have a good record in this race so I am happy to put my money on this one.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... :wall:wall I am tipping these horses up 1 run too soon! First Butler went in at 12/1 and now Nanton at 25/1 today after I had a max bet on the horse last time out. :cry Mirrored was pretty disappointing today. Was detached turning for home before staying on really well on the inside. I will probably back this horse next time out, although I am absolutely gutted I didn't back Nanton today

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 4.45 Leicester Comptonspirit 3pts 10/1 win Bet365 I think this horse could be ready to win again. Last season he won multiple races at 5f and 6f and his run last time out suggests he could be ready to go in again. His highest winning mark came off 68 where he won pretty comfortably by 2 lengths. Last time out was this horses best run for a while and that came off 72. He did best of those who raced up with the pace and was only beaten 2 lengths in the end. He has only been dropped 1lb since that run but the jockey’s claim here takes the horse to a mark of 66 which is 2lbs below his last winning mark. This stiff 5f should suit and the stable are in good form at the moment.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 3.30 Redcar Bajan Pride 2pts win 15/2 William Hill Bajan Pride last won off 67 in a seller when trained for Richard Fahey last year. His last handicap win came off 62 over this distance at Carlisle. Interestingly this horse is now with another trainer but has taken a similar path to that of last year. This horse has ran in consecutive years at both Nottingham and Newbury in apprentice races. Last year this horse was 2nd off a mark of 60 before going on to win at Carlisle. This year the horse was 4th in that Newbury race off 58 so I am hoping that he can run a big race here. He has been dropped a lb since that run and with Declan Cannon taking off another 3lbs, he is effectively racing off 54 here. He should be able to get involved. His run last time out was his best run for a long time and I expect him to build on that here. Dialogue looks very interesting upped in trip but Bajan Pride can take this after a promising run last time out.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: The Quackers school of thought...

:wall:wall I am tipping these horses up 1 run too soon! First Butler went in at 12/1 and now Nanton at 25/1 today after I had a max bet on the horse last time out. :cry Mirrored was pretty disappointing today. Was detached turning for home before staying on really well on the inside. I will probably back this horse next time out, although I am absolutely gutted I didn't back Nanton today

When I saw Nanton had won I thought you must have put him up :( Bad luck on that front. You'll be back up and running soon :hope

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought...

When I saw Nanton had won I thought you must have put him up :( Bad luck on that front. You'll be back up and running soon :hope

Cheers matey

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 7.20 Kempton Heddwyn 2pts e/w 8/1 StanJames This horse won at massive odds first time out at Windsor and then ran very well next time up to finish 2nd to the decent London Stripe. The way he finished that day, suggested it was a strange move to drop the horse back in trip on his next outing where he finished a fast finishing 3rd to the very classy Green Destiny. The jockey didn't really get serious with the horse that day and I think there is still plenty more to come from the horse. That 3rd to Green Destiny came after a break so the time off the track should not hinder his chances here. Getting a great price on this horse due to the inclusion of Point North in the race but I think Heddwyn can prove to be just as good, if not better than that one. He goes for stable that I really like and should run well here. The way he has ran against horses rated in the high 90's suggests that he is more than capable of going in off a mark of 88.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 6.20 Kempton Mitie Mouse 2pts win 7/1 Paddypower Just going to take a chance with this newcomer who runs for a stable who do much better on the all weather than the turf. Has one of the best all weather jockeys booked for the ride in Callan and this horse was very popular at the sales. The stable have a good record with their 2 years old this season, with 1 winner and a 2nd from just 4 runners. Don't think the form of the favourite entitles him to be as short as he is so I am happy to take him on!