Quackers Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Hey guys, I haven't been posting for very long but have been an avid reader of the site for well over a year and a half now. I quite fancy setting up my own thread just to help me keep track of my own bets and to hopefully help me become more disciplined in my betting. When I say disciplined I mean cutting out the stupid and sometimes quite ridiculous bets that I sometimes place. I don't claim to specialise in any particular type of race but I think I have a good understanding of horse racing (mainly on the flat). I don't mind backing in any race if I think a horse has a good chance of winning, although in this thread I will stay well clear of any apprentice/lady riders races (as they are just rubbish). I like most of you, enjoy the big meetings but find it just as satisfying, picking the winner of a class 6 handicap at Southwell as I would a group 1 race. I also enjoy when the good 2 year old races begin as I think there are plenty of winners to be had from these. I hope Monte doesn't mind but I think keeping it simple to begin with is the best way forward so I am going to follow what he did by starting out with 100pt bank and bets ranging from 1-5 pts. Any advice on any subject is most welcome and keeping me right in terms of profit and loss would be much appreciated! Here's to finding plenty of winners :cheers Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... good luck with it Quackers :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... 7.45 Kelso SENDALI 1pt e/w 5/1 Ladbrokes I like the look of this horse who has improved since joining Chris Grant. They have upped to him this trip and he won well a couple of outings ago and ran a great race in defeat last time out over CD finishing 4th. Bryan Hughes who won on the horse 2 runs ago is back on board tonight and this race looks slightly less competitive than last time out. I think he showed last time out that he can still be competitive off this mark. He had a couple of these in behind last time out and should be able to confirm them placings. GLINGERBANK is interesting but I just have my doubts about whether or not he will repeat his good run last time out. If doing so, he has a good chance of at least making the frame. In a race where I think the favourite is worth taking on, I am going to do so with SENDALI who should run well if coping with the different ground conditions here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Good luck Quackers, seen you do a few in-depth reasoning posts from your selections so sure you'll do well :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... good luck with it Quackers :ok Cheers fintron :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Good luck Quackers' date=' seen you do a few in-depth reasoning posts from your selections so sure you'll do well :ok[/quote'] Thanks Lars :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Sendali 3rd Would have been nice to have a winner with my first bet but money back will do. He travelled better than any and I thought he would go past the horse in front but in the end got done for second as well. Good racing tomorrow so will probs have 1 or 2 bets +100pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haystacks Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Very best of luck with this Chris - I always find your posts interesting and thought-provoking and will be following your ups (mostly hopefully) and downs in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... 3.50 Sandown GENIUS BEAST 1pt e/w 12/1 Bet 365 As this thread grows you will all come to realise that the boys in blue are one of my favourite stables. Even more so now Zarooni has started training some of the horses. I think he is a great trainer and had a great first year in the UK. He has started this season in unbelievable fashion with a 50% strike rate from 10 runners. All of his horses are running to form with only Neebras disappointing but that horse give the rest of the field about 6 lengths start by starting slowly. GENIUS BEAST was very unlucky last season to run into FRANKEL and PICTURE EDITOR. He finished third in the 2 maidens won by those horses with NATHANIEL filling the second spot on both occasions. That horse came out and won his maiden by 9 lengths at Haydock recently, and even though that was only a 3 horse race, NATHANIEL is definitely a very smart animal and is entered for the Derby. This is definitely a risky selection as there are so many smart horses in this race and it is guesswork on a few of them on whether or not they have trained on this year. Few have already shown what they can do in AULD BURNS and DORDOGNE and I would just prefer DORDOGNE from them 2. This horse won a listed race on its reappearance last week, finding plenty from the front. The step further up in trip should suit and he has a favourites chance. SPECIFIC GRAVITY and MEASURING TIME where both beaten by the above mentioned horses and will do well to reverse the placings. Few others to looks out for in a race that could go to anything in the field but I really like the look of GENIUS BEAST stepping up in trip. Pedigree suggests this horse will improve this year and will improve for the step up in trip. This quicker ground is a slight concern as he won his maiden well on soft ground at the end of last year. At 12/1 he is a good each way chance for me though. He has already shown classy form in his maidens last year and is entered in both Derby's and in the Dante. They must think something of him at home, to give him these entries. Zarooni says the horse is in good form and has progressed well over the winter so I'll take my chances :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Very best of luck with this Chris - I always find your posts interesting and thought-provoking and will be following your ups (mostly hopefully) and downs in this thread. Cheers Haystacks. As you are someone else who likes to follow 2 year old's, I always have a good read at what you have to say :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Yeah good luck, i like thread title :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cal Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... I have found you to be very helpful and I'm learning off everyone on here. Good luck mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Thanks guys. Still learning myself! Think I may have made my first mistake in selecting Genius Beast for tomorrow! Am I right in thinking Kingmambo like soft ground? Pedigrees aren't my strong point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haystacks Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Am I right in thinking Kingmambo like soft ground? Not as far as I am aware Chris. Genius Beast has won on the soft, but Kingmambo progeny (Henrythenavigator being the obvious example) usually prefer good or better according to: http://www.drawbias.com/sirestats.html Hope that's right anyhow, as I have followed you in on Genius Beast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Well that's good to hear. Fingers crossed for us both mate :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Good luck with your thread Quackers :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Best of luck with the thread mate. Hope all goes to plan. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... There is plenty of value to be found in apprentice races, so discount them at your peril! I think a lot of people think that way, but the odds are very generous if you can find a winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... 3.20 Sandown TREASURY DEVIL 3pts win VC Bet 4/1 I think plenty of these will fall short of what is required to win this and the 3 worth concentrating on are the first 3 in the betting. The Gosden horse who cost a whopping $1,000,000 has to be feared returning to this sort of level. Ran two excellent races looking very impressive before being found out at group 1 level on soft ground in France. Return to this track where he has won before and this quicker ground, must see him go close. John Gosden has won this race twice in a row and trainers like to keep their sequences going as long as they can so he must have a big chance. Buick rides plenty of winners for the stable but runners from this stable outside of maidens seem to be running very poorly which is a slight worry. Hopefully this will change today as he has plenty of horses with good chances running today. TAZAHUM has the unfortunate burden of Richard Hills on board but hails from the Stoute yard. He is another horse that is open to plenty of improvement this year. He only won a maiden at Kempton and then finished a creditable second to DUBAWI GOLD on his last start. Think this one is plenty short enough for what he has achieved so far and is worth taking on. The Stoute yard are yet to fire and although they have had a few winners, a lot of their fancied runners are not running to form. I would wait until hit better form before backing any of their runners as they are far to hit and miss. That leaves me with CAPTAIN BERTIE. Has the assistance of the much more talented brother Michael on board and comes from the Barry Hills stable who are in great form. This horse like the other two I have mentioned is another one that looks set to improve this year on what he has shown so far. He has already shown his stamina for the trip by winning a maiden at Chester over a mile. That was good to soft that day but ran two cracking races in defeat on good ground. In his first maiden, he was not fancied but ran a great race finishing strongly into third behind the very talented WAITER'S DREAM and then bettered that next time out when finishing a neck second to PAUSANIAS. That horse recently won a listed race at HQ very comfortably and looks the type to progress this year into group company. The slight worry for me with this one is that Barry believes the horse needs some cut in the ground which he certainly won't get today. Few others to mention with the likes of INVINCIBLE RIDGE who may not get the trip and the improving INDIAN JACK but TREASURY DEVIL will do for me. The horse is entered in the Derby and has other group level entries so they must think something of him. He quickened up well when beating INTROVERT at this course last year and looked better the further they went. That horse has proved in Meydan that he is decent horse himself so with the step up in trip sure to suit, TREASURY DEVIL is the selection. CAPTAIN BERTIE if handling the ground is the biggest danger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... One other horse that is interesting today is SALTO in the 2.40 Longchamp. Finished a creditable second to RODERICK O'CONNOR in group 1 level on his last start and is trained by the very talented F Head. Wait for the prices to see whether or not he is worth a bet. Off to play in a charity footie match so back about 2ish, just in time for the racing :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Thanks Steve and Monte btw. I enjoy reading both your threads so hopefully we can find a few winners between us. I am with you Steve with MOONLIGHT CLOUD for the guineas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... One other horse that is interesting today is SALTO in the 2.40 Longchamp. Finished a creditable second to RODERICK O'CONNOR in group 1 level on his last start and is trained by the very talented F Head. Wait for the prices to see whether or not he is worth a bet. Off to play in a charity footie match so back about 2ish, just in time for the racing :D 2.40 Longchamp SALTO 2pts win 11/4 Ladbrokes A lot of these are stepping up in grade and are yet to prove themselves. BAROCCI is by the Japanese superstar deep impact and won a listed race last time out beating a few of these. I expect him to confirm that form and pose the biggest threat to the selection along with TIN HORSE. TIN HORSE ran some crackers in grade 1 company finishing second to both DREAM AHEAD and WOOTTON BASSETT and he too should is one to be wary of. I like SALTO though as he improved with every race last year signing off with a second to RODERICK O'CONNOR. That horse is held in high regard by O'Brien and I think SALTO will progress further this year. He is a worthy favourite for this and I expect a big run if ready to go first time out. That's it for today so :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... :clap3.50 Sandown GENIUS BEAST 1pt e/w 12/1 Bet 365 As this thread grows you will all come to realise that the boys in blue are one of my favourite stables. Even more so now Zarooni has started training some of the horses. I think he is a great trainer and had a great first year in the UK. He has started this season in unbelievable fashion with a 50% strike rate from 10 runners. All of his horses are running to form with only Neebras disappointing but that horse give the rest of the field about 6 lengths start by starting slowly. GENIUS BEAST was very unlucky last season to run into FRANKEL and PICTURE EDITOR. He finished third in the 2 maidens won by those horses with NATHANIEL filling the second spot on both occasions. That horse came out and won his maiden by 9 lengths at Haydock recently, and even though that was only a 3 horse race, NATHANIEL is definitely a very smart animal and is entered for the Derby. This is definitely a risky selection as there are so many smart horses in this race and it is guesswork on a few of them on whether or not they have trained on this year. Few have already shown what they can do in AULD BURNS and DORDOGNE and I would just prefer DORDOGNE from them 2. This horse won a listed race on its reappearance last week, finding plenty from the front. The step further up in trip should suit and he has a favourites chance. SPECIFIC GRAVITY and MEASURING TIME where both beaten by the above mentioned horses and will do well to reverse the placings. Few others to looks out for in a race that could go to anything in the field but I really like the look of GENIUS BEAST stepping up in trip. Pedigree suggests this horse will improve this year and will improve for the step up in trip. This quicker ground is a slight concern as he won his maiden well on soft ground at the end of last year. At 12/1 he is a good each way chance for me though. He has already shown classy form in his maidens last year and is entered in both Derby's and in the Dante. They must think something of him at home, to give him these entries. Zarooni says the horse is in good form and has progressed well over the winter so I'll take my chances :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Nice to get my first winner :nana ... shame the other 2 were pretty pants! Didn't actually see the race due to technical problems lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haystacks Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Wow, first ever pick in your new thread wins really impressively at 12/1 (backed into 8/1). Awesome stuff Chris! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... Thanks guys :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... - 3pts Treasury Devil - Looks as though a step up in trip is in order - 2pts Salto - finished about a length behind the winner in 6th but disappointing + 15pts - Genius Beast - won well + 110pts Early one for tomorrow 4.55 Fairyhouse CAIM HILL 1pt e/w 20/1 Bet 365 Thanks to Gangerman for the trends of the race as they helped to whittle the field down to just 2. There are CAIM HILL and SADDLERS STORM. Of the two I have decided to go CAIM HILL as he looks as though he has been trained for the race since winning a grade 2 chase this time last year. He did look fortunate to win that day with odds on favourite falling at the last fence but he was right there and seemed to be staying on better than the favourite. A further step up in trip looks ideal which is what he gets here. CAIM HILL's first race back after that grade 2 win came in February this year over an inadequate trip. Since then the trainer has given the horse 3 hurdle races probably to keep him fit. It seems strange that they reverted back to hurdles with this horse after he won 2 chases over 3 miles. Looks as though they have had this race in mind and have tried to protect his mark. They have also opted for the first time blinkers which may be to help keep the horses mind on his job. He has also only fell once in his career so I assume he is a sound jumper. The horse was a decent hurdler in his time and now seems to be translating that to staying trips over fences. Worth a small bet in a race that does throw up some big priced winners! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.00 Redcar DISPOL KYLIE 2pts e/w 8/1 William Hill There should be plenty of pace in this race with plenty of these liking to front run. DISPOL KYLIE is versatile as to which way she is ridden, and if they jockey can hold her up and not get involved in trying to front run then she could run a big race here. She is already a winner over 5f and can go on any ground. She returned in this race last year off 65 and finished a good second behind LA CAPRIOSA who was sent off the 9/4 favourite. This horse is very consistent but may have just needed a little help from the handicapper. She gets that today dropping down to 63 and also gets another 3lb taken off her back by the jockey. She is running off a career low mark here today and should be thereabouts if ready to go first time up. She has won off 74 in the past, and is still a relatively young horse so should be able to be competitive off this mark. The stable are in good form over jumps having had 2 winners from 3 runners and their only flat runner EMBSAY CRAG finishing second at 12/1. The likes of DREAMACHA and CARRIES MAGIC are yet to prove themselves over this distance but CARRIES MAGIC appeared as though this trip might suit after fading late on last time out over 6f. DREAMACHA will certainly benefit from a strong pace here as she should be finishing well with all her form coming over 6f. Whether she gets going quickly enough is another matter. OONDORI is interesting with the champion on board but is running off 63 here and her highest winning mark came off 57, so she may struggle to get involved. HYPNOSIS and NOMOREBLONDES will try and force the pace in the race but both may struggle to hold their positions up front against these younger better handicapped horses. DISPOL KYLIE has solid claims of going one better in this race this year off effectively a 5lb lower. The stable are in good form and this race could be run suit so I am happy to take my chances with her :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.35 Fairyhouse VOLER LA VADETTE 4pts win 2/1 William Hill This horse slammed few of these last time out and should be well up to confirming that form here today. The only danger to the horse is she runs to form is DONNAS PALM. The Mullins horse probably prefers it over shorter and the likes of STONEMASTER and OSCAR DAN DAN were well beaten by the selection last time out. Very different ground coniditions today but VLV handles good ground just as well as heavy so it shouldn't be a problem. On a line through SHINROCK PADDY though, DONNAS PALM shouldn't be good enough to beat the selection. Happy to go with VLV to get the day off to a good start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.00 Redcar DISPOL KYLIE 2pts e/w 8/1 William Hill There should be plenty of pace in this race with plenty of these liking to front run. DISPOL KYLIE is versatile as to which way she is ridden, and if they jockey can hold her up and not get involved in trying to front run then she could run a big race here. She is already a winner over 5f and can go on any ground. She returned in this race last year off 65 and finished a good second behind LA CAPRIOSA who was sent off the 9/4 favourite. This horse is very consistent but may have just needed a little help from the handicapper. She gets that today dropping down to 63 and also gets another 3lb taken off her back by the jockey. She is running off a career low mark here today and should be thereabouts if ready to go first time up. She has won off 74 in the past, and is still a relatively young horse so should be able to be competitive off this mark. The stable are in good form over jumps having had 2 winners from 3 runners and their only flat runner EMBSAY CRAG finishing second at 12/1. The likes of DREAMACHA and CARRIES MAGIC are yet to prove themselves over this distance but CARRIES MAGIC appeared as though this trip might suit after fading late on last time out over 6f. DREAMACHA will certainly benefit from a strong pace here as she should be finishing well with all her form coming over 6f. Whether she gets going quickly enough is another matter. OONDORI is interesting with the champion on board but is running off 63 here and her highest winning mark came off 57, so she may struggle to get involved. HYPNOSIS and NOMOREBLONDES will try and force the pace in the race but both may struggle to hold their positions up front against these younger better handicapped horses. DISPOL KYLIE has solid claims of going one better in this race this year off effectively a 5lb lower. The stable are in good form and this race could be run suit so I am happy to take my chances with her :hope Pleased with that... pays for the rest of the day :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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