The Quackers school of thought...

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... An absolute stinker for me today at Newmarket. Day started off well enough with Ambitious Dragon romping home but even with that one I choose to take SP rather than the 5/2 on offer :spank Nanton ran a good race in the first but just didn't have enough in the tank to make the frame. Less said about Eleanora Duse the better. The winner of that race looked very smart and probably one to follow this year. The big race of the day was a nightmare especially with Memory blowing his chance at the start. Barefoot Lady ran a great race and Moonlight Cloud at one point moved up threateningly but it wasn't to be. Edinburgh Knight was a non-runner so I should have just left it at that. Instead I had a bit on Baldemar who was very disappointing and ran like a 33/1 shot should. Primevere my biggest bet of the day travelled well and just did not quicken. I almost went for Barbican in the lucky last... good job I never! - 4.55pts for the weekend :sad

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.25 Windsor Memphis Man 5pts 8/1 Betfair This horse hasn't won in 26 starts since winning at Nottingham by a nose but he is now down to a very attractive mark. He is a CD winner which came off 72 in June 09 so should be capable off 52 here. Memphis Man is a better horse on the turf with 9 wins compared to just 1 on the all weather. That being said, he has been running very well of late not being beaten by far. Last time out however, he was very disappointing over 5f at Southwell. Happy to ignore that run as he is better over this distance. This horse does like to be held up so will need luck in running which you don't always get at Windsor. When winning over CD in 09 he did make his challenge widest of all and still managed to get up so the jockey shouldn't be worried about having to switch wide today. Matthew Cosham is one of the more experienced jockeys in the race which is also an advantage. This race is full of horses that find it hard to win so having one of the best jockeys on board is a massive positive. The David Evans stable are in decent enough form. Their strike rate isn't great but they have so many runners. Most of their horses run well enough. Memphis Man looks very well handicapped and has been running as if he is ready to win. Memphis Man is 13lbs lower than his last winning mark which was only last year. He is 1 of 3 CD winner's in the field and has plenty of help in the saddle compared to most of this lot. Plenty in his favour to notch up a rare win.

[jockmc]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... am heading 2 down royal 2 morrow any thoughts people:wall:wall

[zapp]

Re: The Quackers school of thought...

2.25 Windsor Memphis Man 3pts win 13/1 Betfair

Quackers, are you sure on the odds? Few pounds matched so far are below 8. Currently available price to back is around 10. Is 14 the price you are aiming to get matched?

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought...

Quackers' date=' are you sure on the odds? Few pounds matched so far are below 8. Currently available price to back is around 10. Is 14 the price you are aiming to get matched?[/quote'] Yeh thought I could get it. Went unmatched though. Changed it now. Hopefully it will win :hope

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought...

am heading 2 down royal 2 morrow any thoughts people:wall:wall

Gordon elliott has some good chances and like the da should run well back at 2m

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.55 Windsor Seamus Shindig 2pts win 7/1 William Hill You have to go back a couple of years for this horses last win but he ran pretty well on his reappearance at this course a couple of weeks ago. He was staying on well, from the back to finish 5th and is entitled to come on plenty for that run. Amy Scott is his regular rider and he looks well handicapped on his old form if able to recapture it. His last win came off a mark of 85 and he is running off 73 today. That did come a long time ago but he ran as if the ability was still there last time out. The Henry Candy stable are in good form and have had a few winners in the last week or so. I’ll take a chance that he can get back to winning ways today. 3.50 Beverley Elijah Pepper 2pts win 6/1 William Hill This horse returned to turf last time out on ground that was probably too soft for him but he ran a good race to finish third. He has been very consistent on the all weather and I like his chances here today with Graham Gibbons on today. Elijah Pepper has never won off a mark this high but there still might be a little improvement in him. There are a few front runners in the race so hopefully they will go quick up front and set up for the selection. 4.00 Kempton the Scorching Wind 1pt e/w 22/1 Coral Bit of a speculative one as this horse has been in terrible form of late. This horse won off 89 last year and ran some great races in defeat off much higher marks than what he races off today. He races off 80 today so if able to find some of his old form, he would have a chance. He is a CD winner and probably found the extra 2 furlongs last time out not to his liking. Returned to a mile here and with Philip Robinson booked for the ride, they might just be expecting a much better run from horse than we have seen in his recent starts. I know this is a gambling stable so you would like to see money for the horse but I think he has a good chance today if able to get out on terms with the rest of the field. 2.20 Curragh Aaraas 1pt e/w 8/1 William Hill This looks a pretty strong maiden but I like the looks of this horse to run a decent race. Has a good 2 year old pedigree being by Haafhd and runs for a stable in good enough form with a top jockey on board. This is a wide open race that anything could win as it is pretty much a guessing game but the O’brien 2 year olds haven’t been as far forward as they normally are and there is no Tommy Stack horse in the race so it looks pretty open. The favourite here is very interesting being by Teofilo but I like taking favourites on in 2 year old races so I will be playing Aaraas each way. 3.40 Warwick Timpanist 1pt e/w 10/1 Betfred The favourite Caelis looks like a horse to take on in this race after 2 disappointing efforts. They now reach for the blinkers with that horse which would put me off even more. After the favourite you have a field full of very poor horses that don’t often run very well. I like the look of Timpanist under Hayley Turner. This horse is at least consistent and proved she can handle turf when nearly winning a maiden at Folkestone. Back in a handicap today off a 3lb lower mark than the only other time she contested a handicap which was at Lingfield, she might just have a squeak of finally getting her head in front. She probably won’t find many weaker opportunities than this one today so fingers crossed for a decent run.

[cpo]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... I like the look of Memphis man as well. Surprised you don't get bigger than 8's in the end as it was available at bigger odds last night. fingers crossed :hope

[cpo]

Re: The Quackers school of thought...

2.25 Windsor Memphis Man 5pts 8/1 Betfair This horse hasn't won in 26 starts since winning at Nottingham by a nose but he is now down to a very attractive mark. He is a CD winner which came off 72 in June 09 so should be capable off 52 here. Memphis Man is a better horse on the turf with 9 wins compared to just 1 on the all weather. That being said, he has been running very well of late not being beaten by far. Last time out however, he was very disappointing over 5f at Southwell. Happy to ignore that run as he is better over this distance. This horse does like to be held up so will need luck in running which you don't always get at Windsor. When winning over CD in 09 he did make his challenge widest of all and still managed to get up so the jockey shouldn't be worried about having to switch wide today. Matthew Cosham is one of the more experienced jockeys in the race which is also an advantage. This race is full of horses that find it hard to win so having one of the best jockeys on board is a massive positive. The David Evans stable are in decent enough form. Their strike rate isn't great but they have so many runners. Most of their horses run well enough. Memphis Man looks very well handicapped and has been running as if he is ready to win. Memphis Man is 13lbs lower than his last winning mark which was only last year. He is 1 of 3 CD winner's in the field and has plenty of help in the saddle compared to most of this lot. Plenty in his favour to notch up a rare win.

:nana:nana:nana

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... :cow Rather pleased with that

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... +25.45 points thanks to Memphis Man for the last few of days Bets - 41 Wins - 9 Losses - 28 Placed - 4 Bank - 190.92pts P/L - +90.92pts Pleased with hows it going at the moment. Nearly 100points profit in just over a week. Need to concentrate on quality rather than quantity though. I have had far too many bets over the last 3 days and was lucky come out with profit. Lesson learned... just because the racing is top notch doesn't mean you have to have more bets! :spank

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... Up the boro lol as if we are winning 3-0 :cow

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.40 Newcastle Dean Iarracht 2pts e/w 10/1 Bet 365 This horse has plenty to find with a couple of these but I expect him to get much closer this time around. Capable Guest finished 1st last time out beating my selection by 5 lengths. That horse has gone up 6lbs for that win whereas Dean Iarracht has been dropped 2lbs for finishing 7th. That pull in the weights entitles him to get much closer to that horse here. The other one that came of that race is Hail Tiberius who finished 2nd just 2 lengths behind Capable Guest. That horse finished well enough that day but has gone up another 2lbs for that effort. He is still a maiden after 11 starts but is getting closer to that elusive win. Capable Guest very rarely follows up a win with another good run so he is worth taking on. Valentino Oyster could run a big race returned to this trip after a disappointing effort over 2miles where he was sent off favourite. Robert Winston is in good form having had 4 winners since Friday and he is on board the selection. He has had a couple of runs since returning from a break so should be cheery ripe for today. This track suits his style of running as he takes plenty of time to pick and get in to full flow. He had a great season last year and looked as though he was returning to that sort of form last time out. I expect him to get much closer to the market principles today and hopefully can improve past them.

[DC]

Re: The Quackers school of thought...

Up the boro lol as if we are winning 3-0 :cow

:ok

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 4.55 Punchestown Benash 1pt e/w 16/1 Paddy Power A very competitive race to get involved in but I like this horse at the price. This horse has done nothing but improve this year since falling on his return to action in November. Rated just 117 on his return, he hacked up in a race off 122 beating Garde Champetre over this trip at Naas in January. He than ran well enough in a very tough 3m race at Punchestown finishing 7th before falling when still in contention at Fairyhouse over 2 months ago. A return to 2 mile should be no problem and he comes here fresher than most. The big "if" is this much quicker ground. He has yet to race on ground quicker than soft. His half brother however was a decent horse on a sound surface so there is a chance that he will go on it. This will be the same problem for many of the horses in the field however. There are 21 runners in the field so there are obviously plenty of dangers. Nearest the Pin and the 2 Willie Mullins horses look to have solid claims. Nearest the Pin won easily on his handicap debut but has gone up 12lbs for that win and this is a much tougher race so he could struggle. It looks a pretty tough ask as well for both the Rebecca Curtis horses and I can't seem them getting involved at the business end. Benash could very much still be on the improve and there is a good chance he will run well on the quicker ground.

[Quackers]

I'm liking the Punters lounge app

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 7.00 catterick not my choice 2pts e/w 12/1 lads Reasoning in bbotd thread

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.55 Chester mount athos 5pts win 10/1 vc bet Much depends on whether this horse can get a good position in the race from the widest draw. Only Bulwark has come from further back than mid division in the last 10 years to win this race so its pretty important to try and get as near to the front as possible. It will be pretty tough from stall 19, but if unable to get near the front Jamie is one of the best jockeys when coming from behind which is a plus. This track definitely favours front runners, even in these longer races. Trends are also there to be broken as shown by Organisedconfusion winning a couple of weeks ago. That horse went against plenty of the trends for that race but won with ease. Mount Athos comes from the David Wachman stable and was ridder by Wayne Lordon last time out but this horse is owned by Dr Marwan Koukash and he likes Jamie spencer on his horses. Trained in England last year by john hills, this horse did nothing but improve and proved this by winning the melrose handicap at york despite badly drifting down the home straight. He has now been switched to Ireland and they obviously have high hopes for the horse giving him entries for the ascot gold cup, the hardwicke and the Irish St Leger. They must be pretty sure this horse will get this longer trip. Last year the further this horse went, the better he looked. On his return to action this year at Dundalk this horse won a nice handicap very easily, with the jockey never having to get serious at the horse. He is only 4 so there is still plenty of improvement in him and there have been plenty of 4 year olds that have won this race. Although horses that come here fresh tend to do very well, I like the fact Mount Athos is race fit compared to most of his rivals. Overturn is definitely a worthy favourite, as he comes here fit and his front running style will suit this track. He has the best of the draw and everything looks set for a big run from this horse. Of the others Tashtahil has to be feared coming from the barry hills stable, as he has a great record in this race. I also like the look of another irish trained horse in Admiral Barry and Red Cadeaux. That being said I am happy to go with mount athos. This horse looks very progressive and has been moved to this bigger stable with bigger targets in mind such as today. The big stumbling block for this horse could prove to be the draw, but otherwise I think he has a big chance.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.20 Chester Sunday bess 20/1 1pt e/w Paddy Power Take the top 2 out of this race and it looks pretty open. Midnight caller would have a massive chance his close 2nd to blue bunting on debut but she was very disappointing on her last start finishing last to White moonstone. Wonder of wonders was very impressive last time out winning her maiden by 5 lengths. This is a big step up in class but this horse is bred to be very good and she has multiple group 1 entries. Without these 2 horses the race looks pretty open and there is no guarantee they will go on the tricky Chester track. The one I like at a price is the tom dascombe horse Sunday bess. Much was expected of this horse on her return to action as she was very well backed into 11/4 second favourite in quite a hot looking maiden. She could only manage 4th that day but ran well enough. She should definitely run better here with that run under her belt. She is bred to be pretty decent as she is by the Japanese superstar deep impact. She has an oaks entry as have most of the runners here so she must have been showing something at home. The draw doesn't matter so much over the longer distances at Chester but she has an inside draw in 4 which is also a positive as she can get herself a nice race position. She could well get outclassed here by the market principles but the money came for her first time up so she must have been showing something at home. I'll take my chances at 20/1 :hope

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 3.30 Chester Masamah 1pt win 18/1 Coral Bit of a crazy one with this horse drawn widest of all over 5f at Chester. That should really rule this horse out straight away but this horse won this race last year and then followed up that win with a listed success at the course a few runs later. He clearly likes the course and is capable of a quick start. If able to get a good start here he may just be able to tack across from his wide draw. That being said there are plenty of other quick starters in the race so it looks a pretty tough ask. The Kevin Ryan stable are not in the greatest of form with only few of their horses winning from plenty of runners. This horse does go fresh however and won this race on its reappearence last year. He is 10lbs higher here but did win a listed race at the track off 102 in July . Both times he was able to get to the front and make all so much will depend on how he starts here. Jamie Spencer rides this horse and has won on the horse before. He likes quick ground and I think this horse would be much shorter if had been drawn low. The draw is a huge negative but that being said if your drawn low and you blow the start then you have no chance. I will take my chances that this horse can blast out and get to the front and make all :unsure

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 4.40 Chester Gottany O's 2pts win 6/1 Coral I like the chances of this horse. Needs to step up on what he has shown so far in his first attempt in a handicap but he is an improving horse. The step up in trip has brought about massive improvement in the horse. Stepped up to 1m 4f for the first time, he hacked up in a maiden at Wolverhampton by 10 lengths and then won very cosily beating a Fahey horse at Catterick. The front 2 that day pulled 23 lengths clear of the third but that was only a 4 runner race so the form of that race is not that strong. He is in the winning habit though and has looked very good on his last 2 starts. The race is full of potential improvers but I fancy Gottany O's can improve further on what he has shown so far. This is the right trip for him and he will go on the ground. The stable are still in great form. He has got the widest draw but thats no so important over this longer trip. I think I am right in saying that this is Dr Marwan Koukash's local track and he does appear to have plenty of good chances today. No doubt he would love to have a winner at his local track and fingers crossed he does as I have tipped up 3 horses owned by him :hope

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... should have gone each way really on mount athos. ran a cracker considering his draw and how wide he had to come

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... Wow what a terrible day. I flagged up Gary Nutting a few weeks ago and he tipped up Overturn a while back at 5pts e/w at 12/1 :sad Going to have 1 more go today in the next at Punchestown 6.40 Punchestown 1pt e/w Conem 22/1 VC Bet This horse hasn't won for 2 years and is the grand old age of 11 but he looks a rejuvenated horse for the fitting of blinkers. He has finished 4th, 3rd and 2nd last time out so surely 1st is next up for this horse! He looked beat last time, before rallying and only just failing to get up. He has gone up 2 lbs for that run but he could still be competitive here. He gets nearly 2 stone in weight from the top weights in the race and I could see him running a good race. Interestingly in his 51 races over jumps this will only be the third time he is visited this track. Hopefully he can make it third time lucky! :hope

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... Not my choice cancelled out my losses on Dean Iarracht who ran very poorly yesterday. As for today I was pretty foolish in backing 2 horses in Mount Athos and Masamah to win when both had the widest draw in the race. Both ran well however to get placed at good odds but that was no good to me! Sunday Bess I will forget about, and I think connections should forget about any big engagements for this one. Gottany O's was outclassed. Never got into the race. Rubbish day. I flagged up Gary Nutting a few weeks ago and he did tip Overturn up at 12/1 at 5pts e/w! Everything seemed to be in this horses favour today... oh well :sad Bets - 48 Wins - 9 Losses - 34 Placed - 5 Bank - 178.92pts P/L - +78.92pts

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 5.30 Punchestown Mourad 2.5pts e/w 9/2 William Hill I have put this bet on early as they are the only firm to offer 9/2 for this horse. For me he is a great each way bet. I can't see him finishing out of the first 3 and there is every chance he can give the favourite a good race. Mourad's first race over 3miles was in this race last year where he finished third. This season Mourad has come back looking better than ever. Two comfortable wins at grade 2 level was followed up by a good effort finishing third at Cheltenham behind the big 2 in Big Bucks and Grands Crus. This horse is a sound jumper and has never fallen in his career. The improvement he has shown this year should get him pretty close to the hot favourite. Saying that though, Quevega looked better than ever when hacking up at Cheltenham, never having to come off the bridle. I think Mourad at 9/2 is a great each way bet and money back is the very least you can expect... well I hope!

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 2.55 Chester Nathaniel 5pts win 15/8 william hill Nathaniel looks a very top prospect and I expect him to take the Chester Vase today. He was so unlucky last year to bump into both Frankel and Picture Editor in two red hot maidens. He got within half a length of Frankel which could be the closest that any horse ever gets to Frankel so that was a massive run on debut. Next time up he was unlucky to run into Picture Editor who surely has a big prize in him this year. Genius Beast who finished 1 place behind Nathaniel in both of them maidens has come out and won a group 3 this season fairly comfortably. The form of his return behind both of them horses however hardly needed franking. Nathaniel is bred to be better over longer distances so he did well getting so close to Frankel last year. Stepped up to the same trip as the Chester Vase at Haydock he romped home by 9 lengths beating two other horses and looking better the further he went. It's hard to assess that race with there only being 3 runners and the other two horses not being up to much but he was visually impressive. He has a derby entry and no doubt an impressive win in this race will see his odds shorten. Slumber who won very impressively at Epsom and Treasure Beach who is bred to do better this year are both big dangers but I think Nathaniel looks a very exciting prospect. He has already shown his ability to handle quick ground and he is a powerful, galloping horse so Chester should be right up his street.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 3.15 Goodwood Sleek Gold 12/1 1pt e/w Bet 365 A tricky race to nap in but I like the look of the Brian Meehan horse here. This horse was given a tender ride first time out last season over 7f at Kempton where he finished strongly. Horses from this yard very rarely win first time up and are of great interest on their second run. The stable took this race last year with a short priced favourite and I expect them to go close with this one. She has a very nice pedigree and is related to several winners. She should improve this year and for the step up to a mile. It is very much a guessing game trying to work out what may or may not have trained on but horses from this stable can normally be relied upon to have improved from 2 to 3. Sleek Gold should improve this year and at 12/1 she is a good bet against the two shorter priced horses in the race.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 4.05 Chester Thin Red Line 2pts e/w 5/1 Corals I am hoping the dead 8 go to post here as you will get the 3 places. Thin Red Line looks to have been laid out for this race and he returned to action at this track last year when winning a similar contest very comfortably. The Dodds stable took this race last year with Sweet Lightning and this one looks to have a decent chance on his best form. He has been helped slightly by the handicapper and has course form to call upon. Beachfire took plenty of time to get going last time out and may find things happening to quickly for that horse around here. Thin Red Line looks to have a great each way chance here having been targeted for this race. He should have no fitness worries as he won first time out last year so fingers crossed he delivers the goods.

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... I am in woeful form! - 5pts Nathaniel, just touched off but always looked second best - 2pts Sleek Gold, Cumani horse won well. This horse may be better once seen in handicaps - 4pts Thin Red Line, terrible run + 1.25pts Mourad, at better jump at the last would have made it interesting but Quevega is top notch! Small stakes from now on until I hate some form!

[Quackers]

Re: The Quackers school of thought... 1.45 Chester Amethyst Dawn 1pt e/w 10/1 Bet 365 The Easterby stable aren't in the greatest of form but they did go very close they other day with Captain Dunne and I think they can go close with this horse today. He probably needed the run on his return to action but he did run pretty poorly. He should come on for that and show his true colours here. There are plenty of horses in this race that like to front run including the selection but he has the best draw of the front runners and he might just be able to lead. He was kept pretty busy last year and won 4 times on totally different ground conditions. He should have no problem with whatever the ground is like today. This is very competitive and much will depend on how Amethyst Dawn gets out from the 2 box but if able to get to the front, I can see him running a big race. The jockey gets on very well with him and has been on board the horse for all of his career wins. He is tough and genuine and should me give me a good run for my money. 2.20 Chester Laajooj 2pts win 4/1 William Hill Maqaraat will be tough to beat here and Richard Hills said on Wednesday he was looking forward to this ride but I am going to take him on with the Zarooni horse. The Godolphin stable should have an idea of where they stand with Laajooj in terms of having the beating of the Hills horse. Ocean War of Godolphin beat Maqaraat at Newmarket before going on to frank the form. Laajooj won his maiden at Newbury on his return to action this year very well. The form has been let down somewhat by Danehill Dante at Kempton but the further Laajooj went in that race the better he looked. The step up in trip here looks certain to suit. He does have the worst of the draw here but there are only 6 runners and its over 1m 2f so it won't matter so much. The stable continue in good form and Frankie is on board so I am happy to take on Maqaraat. 3.30 Chester Face the Problem 2pts win 5/2 William Hill This horse looks to have a massive chance back in handicap company. He disappointed a bit on his last 2 starts last year but they were in much higher company. On his return to action this year he ran a cracker against the older much more battle hardened sprinters to finish 3rd. He was unable to get anywhere near the front that day and had to come right from the back. He is best winning getting to the front which he should be able to do today from the 1 box. The form of his last run has worked out very well with the likes of Star Rover, Liberty Lady and Captain Dunne all coming out of it and running well. Athoug was unlucky to run into Night Carnation at Sandown on his reappearence and he looks the main danger but I fancy face the problem to make the most of his inside draw and make all. Last time in a handicap he won very readily by 6 lengths in a quick time and although he is up 10lbs since that win he looks a horse to follow this year. 4.40 Chester Imperial Djay 2pts win 13/2 Paddy Power The Ruth Carr stable are in cracking form now and this horse won with so much in hand last time out. Up 6lb here but he should still be able to get competitive. He does have an outside draw to contend with however, which could prove a stumbling block. Imperial Djay has improved with every race since his return to action and with a clear run today, he will go very close. Norville is soo tough but surely he can't win again with the double penalty. Sioux Rising looks to be the main danger for the Fahey and Hanagan combination having gone close last time out. Imperial Djay looks very much a horse on the improve and although this will take a career best performance, I think he will win given a bit of luck in running. 5.10 Chester Granny Mcphee 2pts win 7/1 William Hill This horse won at the track yesterday and is every bit as good over the longer distance. She wasn't very quick away and had to come right from the back and she hung slightly in the home straight but still managed to get her head in front. If that race hasn't taken it out of her she should run well again today. They have put on the 7lb claimer for today which is a worry but it does mean she actually runs off a 1lb lower mark than when winning yesterday taking into account her penalty. Poorly drawn today she will need luck in running but over this extra 2 furlongs it shouldn't matter. Bit worried about the jockey Natasha Eaton but i'll take my chances.