BBOTD - 28th of Feb

[Aidymac]

Lucky Mellor - Wolverhampton 2:30 Neil Callan a very interesting booking for this outsider tomorrow, he is 1st and 2nd on the horse from 2 rides. Won off 74 the last time he won but was 2nd off 80 after that, is back down to 75 tomorrow and needed the run last time out. Dean Ivory has had 4 winners from his last 10 runners at Wolverhampton and this is his only horse at the track tomorrow and has not had a runner there since the 7th of January. Front-runner who will make a bold bid here! 1 Point win @ 25/1 (VC) BOG

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 2:30 Wolverhampton - Absa Lutte - 1pt @ 14/1 (VC - BOG) Not in the greatest of form last twice but should have everything to her liking here, with a rapid gallop potentially on the cards. She's a frustrating type, who has a lot of ability but often throws away her chances by pulling hard early on. I doubt that'll happen here as there's numerous of potential pace setters, none moreso than the inform Island Legend, who showed bright speed to score by a length at Kempton last time out. He's also well drawn to attack here but has a few potential threats to his lead, which could set it up for Absa Lutte if she proves good enough to take advantage. She is a much better animal around Kempton, but she has 1 win and 3 thirds from just 6 runs here, so the track shouldn't be much of an obstacle. Joesph Young takes the reins and also takes off a valuable 7lbs, to leave her carrying 8st 9lbs, which is a handy weight. She's also 5lbs lower than her last winning mark and the jockeys claim takes her well below all 6 of her winning marks. The yard could be in better form but have managed a couple of nice priced winners since the turn of the year and they don't seem to get many winners anyways (4% SR says it all). Absa Lutte is well drawn in stall 4, close to the likely pace and if she can get a good sit in behind the leaders (can be slowly away) I think she has a great chance of taking advantage. She's often left behind at the start but most of her wins have come when tracking the leaders and asserting with her usual authority if she can just get away quicker from her good draw. She's a strong traveling type when the pace is strong enough and I'd be extremely surprised if they don't go off quick enough here. She'll hopefully avoid racing keenly and she'll take over the running just inside the final furlong, before going on to score comfortably. I can dream! She certainly has the ability to do so and is well handicapped, well suited to how this race will pan out and is definitely overpriced at 14/1. I marked her down as a 6/1 shot, which is significantly lower than what she's available at and I think that'll shorten. Medium stakes on this one and I think it could break my poor run if she get away quick enough. Incomparable and Bahamian Lad could give her the most to think about.

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 17.30 Wolverhampton Loyal N Trusted - >Bet365 1 pt win @ SP Loyal N Trusted is a good horse who has little to improve on hes narrow defeat last time out and has improved in all of hes runs and i think today will be the improvement needed to get the first win

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 3:30 Wolverhampton - Dubai Hills - Back I've just logged into Betfair to see what price he's currently trading at. Wow. 2.28 (5/4) looks absolutely outstanding value. He has been winning by whatever margin he wanted in his last 4 starts, albeit at Southwell. He has improved 30lbs since his winning run began, a truly remarkable feat. Lto he won off a mark of 87, and give that he did it comfortably, it woud seem that today's mark of 95 is still unlikely to stop him. The surface is the key here as it is an unknown. If he takes to the surface, he'll win. It's that simpe. He's the best horse in the race on all current form. And if he goes off at 5/4 that is a truly remarkable price 1pt win @ SP

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb

3:30 Wolverhampton - Dubai Hills - Back I've just logged into Betfair to see what price he's currently trading at. Wow. 2.28 (5/4) looks absolutely outstanding value. He has been winning by whatever margin he wanted in his last 4 starts, albeit at Southwell. He has improved 30lbs since his winning run began, a truly remarkable feat. Lto he won off a mark of 87, and give that he did it comfortably, it woud seem that today's mark of 95 is still unlikely to stop him. The surface is the key here as it is an unknown. If he takes to the surface, he'll win. It's that simpe. He's the best horse in the race on all current form. And if he goes off at 5/4 that is a truly remarkable price 1pt win @ SP

Could you explain to me how he is running off 95, 8 pounds higher tomorrow mate?

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb Yeah defo. He ran off a mark of 75 lto but also carried a mandatory 12lb penalty for his 2 previous wins that week so was effectively running off 87. Today he runs off 95 so an 8lb rise. Hope that answers the question.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb It's not a handicap tomorrow, is it?

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 6.00 Wolverhampton - Layla's Dancer 4/1 Bet365 Favourite could be anything here, didnt take much to win maiden last time out and at 6/5 i'll pass. Layla's Dancer has showed a decent level of form in his last 4 starts and only on his second run for his new yard. 2nd to Eseej and beating Mongoose Alert comfortably on unfavourable terms in a claimer is decent form for this grade. Got worn down late on lto over 13f at Lingfield and the furlong less here should suit. Hopefully he sits in behind the pace and doesnt hit the front too early, he should go close here and the Botti runner will have to be useful to beat this one imo. Jeer a possible danger at a price.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb

Yeah defo. He ran off a mark of 75 lto but also carried a mandatory 12lb penalty for his 2 previous wins that week so was effectively running off 87. Today he runs off 95 so an 8lb rise. Hope that answers the question.

Its not a handicap tomorrow, he could not possibly be running off 95?

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb Hmmmm double figure winner required to take 1st place, don't see it happening unless we get a big D-R-I-F-T on ..... 4.30pm @ Wolverhampton 'Penbryn'. Still a maiden, but went off a fancied and well backed 4/1 2nd fav last time out, when never got into race after a slowish start, had previously ran a few 2nds in weakish maiden races, obviously more thought of it than that. Likes to front run and with Mr Callan onboard, I'll say again the best front-running flat jockey in the business, could easily defy double barrelled odds in this race. I reckon there'll be cash for this tomorrow, so take price as soon as on available. Can't see race priced up yet anywhere although it looks like maybe starting at 14s. I guess I have to go SP 'cus won't be around to post tomorrow. 1 point win

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb Ok my bad. I made a mistake. Sorry for any inconvenience caused. I got my races mixed up. What I meant was that given that he is now allotted an official rating of 95, he looks an even better bet as he is officially 'well in' in comparison to if it was a handicap.

[zoolander]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb Wolves 2:30 Lucky Mellor 25-1 VCBet 1 POINT WIN Looks way overpriced for a horse who goes well over 5f on this type of AW. His last run at 6f at the quicker Kempton is to be ignored as just a blow out to get rid of any cobwebs. Always in the frame in similar type races off a similar mark so there is no reason why this horse shouldnt contend for a place at least. Neil Callan booked states the trainer may feel this horse is ready to strike and wants the best man to make that happen. Outstanding value, back each way for Safety but for the sake of the competition i will be going for the win.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb Plumpton 3.20 Rushwee win - 7/1 Lads Unlucky to fall at Leicester 2 out when in front, but obliged at Wetherby running out an easy winner few days later. Form of both races has been franked. The horse that went on to win the race at Leicester (Dormouse) has won again since. The horse that chased him home at Wetherby Last Of The Bunch won two weeks ago. I think Uttoxeter might have come too soon being 3rd run in 2 weeks. Has been given 30 days off the track and should be fresh today. 8lbs higher in the weights for the Wetherby win, but I think he had a lot in hand that day and talented Matt Crawley takes 7 pounds off his back. Expecting Rushwee to outrun his price in a race, where the bigger priced are badly out of form and the 3 market leaders all have a question or two to answer.

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 28 Feb 2011 - 3:30 W'Hampton - Win Only - Win Best Odds Guaranteed! Sioux Rising @ 9/1 Stake : £1.00 bet placed with will hill Sioux Rising is use to running in mostly class 2 and class 3 races(this is class 4) so should go well in this 4 runner field,Sioux Rising was running on well last time over 6 furlongs and was only just beat(3rd),the step up to 7 furlongs might help,the 9/1 with most bookies i think is a value bet,so the 9/1 bog with william hill i will use for the sake of this thread,it was carrying 9.6 last time so with only 8.11 this time should benifit 1 point win 9/1 bog will hill

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb Can I claim 12/1 on ^ that thing? Penbryn @ 4.30pm, price widely available with BOG bookies. Didn't think I'd get online today, don't want to edit post and if it's gonna win it'll be gambled on.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb

Can I claim 12/1 on ^ that thing? Penbryn @ 4.30pm' date= price widely available with BOG bookies. Didn't think I'd get online today, don't want to edit post and if it's gonna win it'll be gambled on.

Nope, price must be taken at the time of posting!!

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 4.30 wolves Provost is the standout horse for me here. Beaten favourite lto but that was his first run in a couple of months so he probably needed it. Also it was an amateurs race and its safe to say he will get strongler handling today. Only a couple of lengths behind Join Up there and he is much better off with that one now. Should go very close today.. 1 Pt win 6/1 Hills

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb The pick today was once with Alan King but has now gone over to his new trainer Andrew Parker, Mr Parker was a fine amuteur jockey himself and has now gone on to apply his trade as a trainer. The pick did have a BHA rating of 114 sure that was back in 2007 but this race wont take much winning, Alan King let him go around May 2010 and having only got the one win out him that being at Chep in 2007 over 2m 4f Am not sure if he's 100% fit but its a poor race full of monkeys and the selection has been over a few 3m trips in the past, so if he's only 90/% fit he could be in with a great shout of atleast some prize money over todays 2m 3f. Catterick 2:10 - Race 1. Ballamusic 0.5 e/w bet 22/1 Bet365 Happy Monday.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 16:50 Plumpton Western Whisky - Enjoys going as shown when winning a a class3 handicap chase at Ludlow off 104 back down to 106 where 3rd LTO off that mark staying on strongly decent claimer booked 6 wins from 25 and 4 places putting you +10.42 5/1 WH 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 340 Catt: Total Submission (5/2 Bet365) Tight race between the front three in the betting, The McCain horse is fav on his win last time out, nothing wrong with that but it wasnt a great race. Shadows Lengthen was a disappointment last time and need to see if his first good run wasnt a fluke so Total Submission is the bet, he has been consisant and despite beaten the last twice, they were much better races than this and also steps down in trip. I reckon he will lead or be handy and this track will suit, he will want to stretch them out to bring his stamina into play.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb Wolv 4.00 - Black Coffee - win at 5/2 BOG with bet365 6 previous CD winners line up for this handicap The two in form horses are the market leaders, Stargazing (fave) and Black Coffee I'm opposing the fave although she's won her last 2, she only wins by a nose on the line after being produced late. As a result the handicapper is not putting her up much and she may have plenty in hand, but it's dangerous tactics and easy to misjudge. Speed figs are not good and I reckon she probably has been outspeeding horses at the end of slow run races. My selection has also been in good form and should find this easier than the Class 4 he ran in last tine behind Snow Dancer. Speed figs are better than the fave and he also gets held up and sprints late Could be a sprint finish between the two and I'll go with the one with the best speed figs !

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 1pt WIN lucky mellor 28/1 SJ BOG like a lot of others i fancy this horse. ive waited hoping the price drifts and it has slightly. likes to blaze out in front and has the best front running jockey aboard, a man in form. could well slip the field. am backing it eachway myself and absa lutte also but for the competition il go WIN

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 5.00 Wolverhampton The newcomers look rather weak in this maiden and worth opposing. Both Arizona High and Sim Sala go without a recent run but both run with credit in maidens and could easily come on if yards have readied them and yards capable and market will tell but on all form shown so far Black Pond is the one to beat, didnt do a lot wrong on debut just didnt perhaps pick up as would have been expected sure to come on for the run and on breeding is the smartest horse in the field by a long way today and will perhaps do better over further in time but even so! 1pt win black pond 8/13 coral

[awooga]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb Wolves 6.00 - Laylas Dancer 1 pts win @ 11/2 with Bet365 Been running well and was narrowly beaten on Saturday (1/4 length) at Lingfield. That shows can be capable off this mark & races off the same mark today so I think should be there abouts and has a decent chance of taking this.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 3.40 catterick quel elite 22/1 skybet Big run first time out at massive odds where he stayed on well towards the finish. Step up on trip should suit here

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 4.30 Wolverhampton - 0.5pts e/w Gordy Bee @ 12/1 (Sportingbet) Conditions look ideal for Gordy Bee today. Has run average races on fibresand, but showed ability at around 7f/mile on the turf and polytrack. Ran well at Goodwood over 7f in August 2009, but has never run over a mile on turf/polytrack since. Ran okay at Kempton over 10f which stretches this horse. Finally was entered at Wolverhampton over 7f last time, where Spencer (who rides again) got him finishing well into 4th behind West Leake. Going up to its probable optimum trip today, it must have a very good each way chance with Spencer on board - who I think is riding well at the moment. 59 looks a good mark and can take advantage today.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb Sebastiano 3.20 Plumpton. 0.5 points each way. Consistent and likes this ground and trip. Gets in off a mark of 109, which although is a pound higher than for finishing 3rd last time, it still gives him a good chance in context with today's race. Should go close. I'll take the 5/1 with SportingBet.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb GAN ON 2.50 Plumpton. 0.5 points each way. Latest run over hurdles was a bit shite but willing to let him off and he now goes chasing. Should make up into a fair chaser and this race not the strongest he'll contest over fences. Apparently schooled well enough and so with no trip and ground problems and not too much opposition, I'd be a player. Taking 13/2 with Corals for comp purposes.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 3:40 Dr Flynn @ Catterick - Been in good form with one win and two places since making its racing debut.That win came on its debut at Kelso in a national hunt flat race winning by over two lengths.Been placed in lower class races after that but goes on the softer ground and usual jockey Wilson Renwick takes the ride again.Can go close at a good price. 0.5 pt E/W @ 16/1 Sky Bet

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD - 28th of Feb 4.10 Catterick: Homage A Bach 1pt win @ 20/1 WillHill BOG A bit speculative if the truth be told, however this is a very shrewd irish yard who throw in the occasional big priced winner over here. This horse has been very lightly tried under NH rules so significant improvement could be possible after first run in a beginners chase 10 days ago especially with first time blinkers applied (stable had surprise 14/1 winner recently with first time headgear applied). The horse is being backed too!