BBOTD - 10th of Feb

[Aidymac]

I am changing my strategy and im going to try look for e/w value in very competitive handicaps that offer good prices.. Hopefully this new strategy will be a success.. Ginger gave me advice on how to try to work out my own tissue to try find value so i might be terrible, but it wont be for a lack of trying! Behindcloseddoors - Huntingdon 3:40 There are several horses in this race that i feel are a tad overpriced, some i feel are underpriced and some i feel are fairly priced.. Its not just about finding value, i want my selections trainer to be in reasonably decent form and i want to have a jockey in form on my side also. My selection is trained by Kim Bailey who has had 5 winners and 5 places from her last 40 runners, a 12.5% win strike-rate and a 25% place strike-rate so she is in reasonable form. The jockey is Jason Maguire who has had a tremendous season thus far, who has had an impressive 11 wins and 8 places from his last 40 rides, a 27.55% win strike-rate and a whopping 47.62% place strike-rate. When the team pair up for Turf Hurdles, they are 15 wins and 11 places from 109 races, showing a profit of +£7.62 to Level Stakes. Onto the horse and although it has an opening handicap mark of 114 which is a stiff mark to be starting out on, it ran a fine race last time out at Wincanton when it was 2nd of 18 to Furrows, who was a shock winner @ 66/1, it went down by a neck and had a Paul Nicholls horse back in 3rd, it was a Class 4 Novices Hurdle and i think a few winners will come out of that race. My selection looked a sure winner that day as it traded @ 1.1 in running. The step up in trip could well suit my selection further and i like the fact Maguire is in the saddle again as like last time. It has run at Huntingdon previously twice, on its debut when it ran a very nice race on good ground when 4th of 16 over 1m 6f, after which it then went on to win a bumper at Lingfield for Pam Sly. It ran at Huntingdon again two runs back when it was 6th of 13 but that was on soft ground and i am convinced it is a better horse on good ground. When doing up my tissue and taking everything into consideration, i made this animal a 5/1 shot in my book so the 8/1 is very appealing to me especially with 4 places on offer. There are 2 others in the race that i feel are a tad overpriced and may be threats to my selection, firstly being Kavaloti who is a lightly-raced horse trained by Gary Moore, being ridden by Jamie and could be anything after having a long break, i think the 25/1 about that horse is overpriced. The other danger i feel could be Special Day who if re-capturing its old form would win this at a canter, it hacked up over 2m 3f at Newbury in 2008 and has not had many runs since and @ 22/1 may also have a squeak at a price. However i feel Behindcloseddoors holds a very good chance tomorrow and with 4 places on offer, i shall be backing it e/w. 0.5 Points e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365) BOG

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb

1	Ingleby Arch @ SP
Stake: 1.00 Single
Potential Winnings: SP £1 win @ sp 3.20 southwell beaten favourite last time out,ran wide round the bend and after a few slaps was finishing well,can reverse the form with punching who just held on to win,course and distance winner which at the end of last year was racing in class 2 races,again gets the nod off (H) who knows his nags posted early as out all day tomorrow

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 4.15 Meydan Happy Dubai win This horse is in great form having won its last 2 races over 5f and 6f. Back at 5f today after a comfortable win lto over 6. Definitely the horse to beat here. Monsieur Joe is weighted to reverse his second to the selection but I don't think he will. Happy Dubai seems to be thriving at present and is very much on the improve over these sprint distances. Stable is in good form. Few English challengers but I don't see them threatening the selection apart from maybe Mister Manannan. This horse will probably try to make all and with a run under his belt could take some catching here. I expect Happy Dubai to run him down late so there's your forecast as well haha.

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 15.10 Huntingdon A Media Luz - >Bet365 1 pt win @ SP A Media Luz looked the likeliest winner half way through the race before falling at Kempton last time out and this looks the perfect race and track for her to get back on the winning ways and will be the one to beat

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 3:10 Huntingdon - A Media Luz - Back I'm convinced that the 4/6 on offer currently is a great price. Fair enough he's coming here on the back of a fall, but I'm willing to let him off that. He had jumped really well upto that point, and I don't think there is anyone who can genuinely going to say he wasn't going to win that race lto had he not fallen. He was clearly travelling best and it's a shame that 1 single mistake cost him so dearly. That said, had he won that race he would be coming into this at around 3/10 or 1/4, so it's a good thing for anyone looking to back him here. He is undoubtedly the class act here and if he can do what he did last time but cut out the one mistake, he'll be incredibly hard to beat in this company. He's currently trading at 8/13 (1.62) on Betfair and I'm conviced that price will contratc further. I wouldn't be surprised if he were to go off at 4/9 or 2/5, and therefore the 4/6 that is being offered currently looks standout 1pt win @ 4/6 Paddy Power BOG

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 2.20 Southwell Going to post this now as I think this one will be backed off the boards Wheres Reiley was running on towards the finish lto and probably needed the run. Very well in on previous form and lower than his last win here. Stable starting to fire and should go very close. 1 Pt win 9/2 Hills

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 7:10 Kempton - Frameit Has started the year really well and could be an improver from here on. Has been racing in full handicaps since the tail end of last year and stepped up in class lto to record a win at this distance. The gelding steps up again this time, but I believe he has it in him to win. 9/1 bet365 (bog)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb Great minds Andy. :hope 2:20 Southwell - Where's Reiley - 1pt @ 9/2 (WillHill - BOG) I think that this is by far the best bet of the day and despite having form to turn around with a few runners, Where's Reiley can take advantage of a lenient looking handicap mark. He hasn't been at his best of late, running poorly between October and December, but has since dropped from a mark of 82 to todays rating of 68, which is 6lbs lower than his last C&D success, when routing his rivals by an easy 3 lengths in a similar contest. However, he does come with warning, as his yard are extremely shrewd, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him run awfully but I'll take my chances at odds that are significantly too big in my opinion. I selected him last twice, but his run last time out was fully of promise, a lot more impressive than anything he showed on his previous 4 appearances on the racecourse. He started slowly over the same C&D that he faces today, but ran on like a train from the back to eventually finish on the heels of the leaders in a close up 5th place, just 1.75 lengths behind the winner, Sleepy Blue Ocean, whom he re-opposes here on 3lb better terms. He'll also have to turn over form with Sharp Shoes (neck) and Bookiesindex Boy (1.25l), but is 1lb better off with the latter, who throws in good and bad performances with regular consistency. I think Barron's charge has more than enough ability to turn around that form and a quicker break should see him do it comfortably. The main worry is his regular habit of getting outpaced early on, but I can't see too much early speed, so he may escape this time and with his finishing prowess, he should be getting involved at the business end of affairs without too much problem, assuming he's let. Where's Reiley loves this surface, as shown by his overall record, in which 4 of his 5 career wins have come here at Southwell, all over 5 furlongs. He seems particularly suited by a good gallop, which should be on the cards here, but I'm hoping it's not strong enough to see him outpaced from the offset, which is too regular for my liking. He notched up 4 C&D wins in the space of 8 weeks at the beginning of last year, winning initially off a mark of 62, before gaining the final one off a mark 0f 74, when beating a decent field in impressive fashion. One of those races was also this one, in which he's now 3lbs lower in the handicap and has the added benefit of Graham Gibbons on board. Gibbons is a top notch jockey in my opinion and has 1 win from 3 rides on board this lively 5 year old. Where's Reiley is Gibbons' best chance of a winner tomorrow from his 3 rides and he's riding well of late, including a couple of winners around here. He has an overall strike rate of 12% at Southwell but that jumps to a massive 29% strike rate when riding for David Barron, who boasts a fine individual record here of 162 winners from 779 runners, with a massive LSP of £205. He comes here with only 2 runners today, both of whom I expect to win and it could make a nice double. Barron also had 2 runners on Tuesday, priced at 10/1 and 5/1, both ended up seeing victory. This is clearly a happy hunting ground for the Barron team and I'm very hopeful that it'll be continuing today, with a horse who is extremely well handicapped and capable of blowing away the opposition on a going day, assuming connections aren't waiting for a better price. This is a competitive race by all means, but my selection is, in my opinion, the best handicapped horse in the race and the most likely to be suited by conditions. I actually marked him up as the 2/1 favourite and I think that the 9/2 available is absolutely massive. There is numerous dangers but I feel he's the most likely winner, the value call of the race and worthy of maximum stakes. He comes with a great deal of risk in ways but don't they all. Wish me luck!

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 2.20 Southwell - Sloop Johnb 7/1 Bet365 E/W I see Andy and Monte are on Where's Reiley and that one stood out to me when going through the race, when looking at the prices though i expected to see him a shade bigger than 9/2. My main selection here is Sloop Johnb who's in good heart at the moment winning 3 claimers on the trot. Back in handicap company at a course he's a win and 2 places from 3 starts. Won a class 4 handicap over course and distance off a 2lb lower mark back in November. Finished third on his next try here in a class 4 handicap off todays mark but the 2 in front of him that day decent horses. Silaah and Sir Geoffrey were the 2 in front of him and they're both rated high 80's now. Only his 2nd run for Connor Dore who's in good nick at the moment and i think he may be too good for some of these at a decent each way price.

[SIG]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 16.50 Southwell A five runner race to close out the day at Southwell, the stand-out runner for me being Stanley Rigby. He recently completed his hat-trick and is only up 1lb in the weights. He only has one minor threat in the form of Dandarrell who doesn't like to finish first that often and I believe that will happen again today, giving Stanley a straight forward win. Stanley Rigby - 1pt Win @ SP

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 4.20 Sou - Just Five - win at 11/1 BOG with Wm Hill Think this one is good value in this class 4 handicap He's got a good course record - 3 wins, 2 places from 8 runs - and goes well fresh coming here off a 3 month break. He's won 4 four times coming off breaks of 2-4 months His wins here have all been at 8 furlongs but he seems equally effective over 7F - last win was 7F at leicester on heavy ground. My speed figs show that the ground here is still riding 'slow' despite the 'standard' going reports He has a profile i like in handicaps that I refer to as an upper and downer. It means that he's got a higher mark than his last win (3 lbs) but a lower mark than his last run in a handicap (down 2 lbs). Providing the horse is relatively lightly raced I think of this as being a horse who's still on an upward curve but the handicapper has given him a chance. A 3lb claimer who's won on him before helps. Likely fave Intyrie trail won cosily enough here last time but that was a Class 6 - he's up 2 classes and in the weights. The other market leader, Steed, goes for a 4 timer but has a penalty for a narrow win last time and is also up in class. El Dececy and Mr emirati look to be in the handicappers grip now, Khanivorous has no course form (should go well if he handles it !) and old Elusive warrior appears to be in terminal decline. Come on my son - i need a winner !

[yorkshire punter]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb huntingdon 310 A MEDIA LUZ 4/6 paddy power BPG highly unoriginal selection but does look something of a sure fire winner today. well regarded by connections who firmly believe that they have a very smart cheltenham bound youngster. has shown promise in three starts so far and should have hosed up lto but for a mishap late on. gets weight all round here and id be very surprised if it couldn't show this field a clear pair of heels and win convincingly.

[Lars]

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb Sorry BH, that should be 3/1 :ok

[zoolander]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb Huntingdon 2:10 Bennythejets 10-1 Victor Chandler 1 POINT WIN Remember this horse finishing last season with a couple of impressive winning runs and had him down as one to watch this season. Has had two runs out so far finishing 8th and 3rd so im expecting him to be 100% fit today. Its a tough enough handicap but this horse back to a previous winning mark and loves it here C&D winner. Ground will suit and a capable jockey Tom Messanger who has rode him to victory before so everything looks in place for a big challenge today. Each way is the safe play but may not get these odds again in a race like this for this horse so want to take advantage and go for the big win.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 3.50 Southwell - Yorketa 1pt win 10/3 William Hill Expect it to improve on first fibresand showing when 4th over 8f in a seller , tiring In final furlong. Looked a decent contest with winner winning two class 5 h/caps on the bounce just after. Drop to 7f should suit better at this course and although has something to find on OR , trainee has a good record in these types of races on aw. Had a break of 3months but shouldnt be a concern. Fav trainer by mccabe never had a winner in a seller on aw before so judging by those stats , nothing should change :)

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 14:20 South Six Wives - Led from start to finish LTO winning by 3 lengths at CD.Up 8lbs and 7lb claimer to ease some of it good recors here at this track 1pt win 9/2 victor chandler

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb BH put my bet on after typing and gone to 4/1

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 0.5 pts eway Tricky Tree 3.40 Huntingdon 12/1 PP BOG pam sly runs two in the race and her yard is bang in form of late. the shrewd trainer also has Lindy Lou (already backed today) but I like Tricky Tree. With good flat Jockey Chris Geoghegan aboard and has been thereabouts in a couple of decent enough novice events. her run last time out at market rasen will have her bang on for this and she represents good vale.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb at Taunton we have a real puzzle as we have two highly regarded newcomers on show, the Pipe horse from France looks very useful while Henderson runs a 77 rated flat recruit, makes it hard to weigh up the race and Brampour, who was a disappointing third on debut for Paul Nichoills, will have to show more this time. Clowance House left his debut run behind when a good second to Nom Dom at Leicester and should be in the shake up. The 7/1 has just vanished at Hills so will go with Paddy at 13/2, looks a sound EW bet and wont mind if the forecasted rain comes down in buckets! Bet; 230 Tau: Clowance House EW (13/2 PP)

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 2.35 meydan Atlantic sport. Ran well here last time, closely matched on form with a couple but looks weighted to go well. The fact he has had a recent run also a plus. No probs with trip. 6s b365, ew.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb Taunton 2.00 Yourgolftravel Com 0.5pt EW - 22/1 VC Looked a non-trier lto and was never put in the race. With two old timers heading the market here, I won't be surprised if my selection improves and is thereabouts. Big weight, but at the price I think an EW try is worth it.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 2:10 Investment Affair @ Huntingdon - Ran well on debut for new yard on New Years day but has since been poor pulling up and falling.Down to its lowest ever mark and those bad runs came on soft and heavy ground.Jockey Charlie Huxley claims 3lb and it could go close at a big price. 0.5pt E/W @ 33/1 Bet Fred

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 6.15pm @ Meydan 'Raihana' 7/2 Oaks winner and USE Derby placed last year, not put into the race on a poor ride by today's jockey last time, compensation awaits today. NAP

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb MATA HARI BLUE 2.20 Southwell. 0.5 points each way. Interesting runner, as first run on this slow aw track and gets in off a mark that's 9lb lower than his last turf run. Does have bits of form that can see him get involved here and may find a bit of improvement for the slow surface. Did act on soft ground so this 5f trip may race like 6f and that can give him chances. Plenty to prove, but looks well worth a bet at around a current 60/1 on the exchanges.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb Bold Identity 2.30 Taunton. 0.5 points each way. Never raced in this country and never raced on ground as soft as it will be today. Breeding suggests that cut in the ground will suit much better than the good-firm he's been racing on, so worth ignoring his recent stats, and with going to a decent enough stable it wouldn't be a surprise to see a much improved display. Massive odds on the exchanges and worth a nibble to place in a race full of ifs and buts.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb Ballyoisin never backed tricky tree sly is my favourite trainer I am gutted will picked mate

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb BH, my original selection is a late N/R so i have another selection for this evening... Thank you Metropolitan Chief - Kempton 6:40 I think this animal is very overpriced here this evening. It is in very good heart, won at Wolverhampton two starts back over 5f off a mark of 48 and on its last run it was 2nd of 13 at Wolverhampton over 5f also off a mark of 51. That day it was ridden by an apprentice and today Tom McLaughlin takes the ride and the experience should make all the difference. It is stepped up to 7f today but that is not a worry as it won over 7f before in its career. It runs off the same mark as last time out (51) which is very fair, the maximum price i expected this horse to be today is 7/1 so the available 12/1 looks massive to me. Ticks a lot of boxes and well worth an e/w bet in my eyes. 0.5 Points e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365) BOG

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 5.30 Meydan - Buffum (12/1 VC) 0.5pts E/W Mike De Kock's Zanzamar looks to hold all the aces in the UAE 2000 Guineas, havning authoritaviely beaten a good few of these 3 weeks ago, with the extra furlong in his favour and improvement on that run quite likely I can't see anything that finished behind him that day being good enough to turn the tables. The one I like is Dettori's choosen mount, who had two runs at 2 in the USA last season, winning on debut and dissapointing after that. Cost a lot of money and just about the least exposed in the field and at the price I'm happy to take him each-way at what looks like a generous price, in the hope that he has lots of improvement in him - he will need to have to win but it's certainly no forlorn hope.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 8.40 Kempton: Signora Frasi 1pt win @ 14/1 PP BOG Had a few months off but no reason to doubt it won't perform having ran well from a break previously and with stable's few runners running well over last fortnight. Gets on particularly well round this track having won over C&D in the past and ran well from 4lbs lower on penultimate start. Big price here IMO and could go close in weak looking open race.