AGurv Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NFL 2010-2011 Overall 43W-27L-1P +11.70 units (61.42%) Bears ML +158 to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes Lol........a conference championship and the home team is a dog...sorry thats ridiculous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Chicago - Green Bay: -3 and total at 43.5 I will be against you here AG :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Also for the AFC Championship: Pittsburg - NY Jets: -3 and total at 38.5 AG: Surely you will stick with your Steelers here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Chicago - Green Bay: -3 and total at 43.5 I will be against you here AG :( I think everyone will be, but thats alright. Good health to you. Will be betting the Steelers, holding off and hoping to god maybe the Jets will be a public team and the line goes down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks come on guys... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Steelers -3 (-135) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes I hate the juice but its only going to get higher. I think this will be a tight game so I'm willing to risk it. With Polamalu back (maybe somewhat injured) it will make a difference from the first game. The defense otherwise played top notch against the Ravens. Steelers are one of the better teams at reading dump offs taking away maybe some of the regular game plan for the Jets. Revis is playing out of his mind right now so I don't how affective Wallace will end up being. But guys like Sanders and Browns are coming into there own. We have 2 clutch guys who always make the catch in Hines Ward and Heath Miller. Braylon Edwards too inconsistent for me, Ike Taylor has a good history against him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick121212 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers (-3.0) @ 1.80 (PaddyPower) I've noticed today that the line for this at most places is now (-3.5) and I wanted to lock this in and have the insurance. The Steelers in my opinion are the stronger team with the better defense. They will shut down the Jets running game and with Big Ben's experience should be able to get past the Jets. Mark Sanchez is a good QB but still young and not very experienced and although the Jets did pull of a win at the Patriots, the Pittsburgh defense here is a hell of a lot more stronger. The Jets have done well but I can't see them beating the Pats and the Steelers. Plus I hate them. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Pits v. Jets under 38.5 Just gone to a silly number now...37 was about right imo...(although I guess it can easily be argued that the 38.5 is a little too crazy... :\ ) Just a massive over-reaction to last week (both games)...The Steelers game had less than 400 yards total offense, and obviously 21-11 should have pulled up the Jets game, against a much worse D than Pits. Bit surprised when I looked at the schedules for the year, just how few good D's either team has played... ...14 v. Balt (but Batch), 10 @ NO, 13 @ Balt...and that's about it! 17-22 v. the Jets a month ago, but 9 of the Jets points came from a KO return and a late safety... Jets are in exactly the same boat...9 v. Balt, 0 v. GB, a bit of an explosion v. the Bears and the Steelers game. @ 38.5 call me a sucker... :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Leaning the same way with the total TD :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonofwat Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks What about the under 43.5 in the Chicago v Green Bay game? Both games in the regular season went under this no. - Chicago winning 20-17 @ home and Green Bay winning their home game 10-3. Also 9 of the last 10 games between these 2 teams have gone under this no. Always fiercely contested games between the 2 division rivals, and obviously that will be at it's ultimate in such an important game. Wonder if this line may be skewed a little by last weeks performances, with both teams putting up big numbers. The week before Green Bay went under this no. against Philli. Also this will be played outside in what could be tough weather conditions - some forecasts predicting snow/rain showers - and I heard one of the Green Bay WR's calling Chicago's field the worst in the league. Think there is enough reason to play the under, but would appreciate everyone's thoughts before diving in.:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks What about the under 43.5 in the Chicago v Green Bay game? Both games in the regular season went under this no. - Chicago winning 20-17 @ home and Green Bay winning their home game 10-3. Also 9 of the last 10 games between these 2 teams have gone under this no. Always fiercely contested games between the 2 division rivals, and obviously that will be at it's ultimate in such an important game. Wonder if this line may be skewed a little by last weeks performances, with both teams putting up big numbers. The week before Green Bay went under this no. against Philli. Also this will be played outside in what could be tough weather conditions - some forecasts predicting snow/rain showers - and I heard one of the Green Bay WR's calling Chicago's field the worst in the league. Think there is enough reason to play the under, but would appreciate everyone's thoughts before diving in.:dude The field is horrible, especially when wet...footing is poor. These opponents are on an unders run, and if Chicago's D plays as it did in the 10-3 Packers win, then obviously under is the right call. They play a cover-2 that really clamps down on GB's ability to make big plays...one wonders why they gave up so many points to playoff teams NYJ, Philly and NE at home down the stretch. Not to mention the 24 last week after the game was won. One also has to always keep in mind Devin Hester and the defense's ability to make big plays...on both sides, actually. And also, that in a conference championship, teams pour it on...with so much at stake teams press to score, and points can come out of nowhere...look at the Jets last week going over in a game that had under all over it for 50-something minutes. Now, Jets-Pitt under 38.5...that really looks good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Game time temp in Pittsburgh will be about 5 F. Well all know Sanchez struggles more the colder it is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks A balmy 3 Degrees (-15 C) here right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks AFC: Pittsburg @ $4 to win AFC NFC: Green Bay @ $7 to win NFC Probably should hedge both of these picks, but pretty confident both of these sides are good enough to win this game, without the need to hedge. Here is a write up why both teams picks are still good picks for this game. Also adding unders in both games Chicago - Green Bay under 42.5 @ 1.95 pinnacle Should be pretty cold and windy weather for this game, which will restrict the playing ability of both sides. Both defences are very good and will give little away here, as both teams allow less than 20 points per game. Green Bay's defence has allowed 194 passing yards per game (ranked 5th) and 115 rushing yards per game (ranked 18th). In the wildcard game with Philly, they allowed 292 passing yards to Vick (1 TD and 1 INT) but that was when they were chasing the game and throwing the ball more often than running it, while they also allowed just 81 total rushing yards. Also they had 3 sacks and one fumble recovery, so the defence did the job for them, to allow the offence to work from a more comfortable position. Next up was Atlanta in the divisional game, and once again the defence did well, allowing 186 passing yards (1 TD and 2 INTs) and just 45 rushing yards. They also had 5 sacks and a fumble recovery. So in both games, where they were seen as being weak in defending the run, they kept both teams to less than 100 yards, and with those efforts, they were able to allow the offence to take control of both games. Hard to see Chicago passing on them, as their corners are very good with Williams in particular outstanding, while the rush defence has been excellent. Chicago were able to pass for 274 yards and run for another 176 yards in the win over Seattle, but this Green Bay defence is much better. They managed just 2 sacks against Seattle, and if they cannot get to Rodgers, then they will struggle, as he has been in top form. GB's offensive line allowed just 2 sacks against Atlanta, and another 2 sacks against Philly, so this OL is doing a very good job. While Chicago allowed just 34 rushing yards to Seattle, they did allow 238 passing yards and 3 TDs to Hasselbeck. If Rodgers is able to pass for more than 300 yards, then cannot see Chicago winning this game. In their two regular season games, in round 3 where GB lost 20-17 at Chicago, GB threw for 316 yards (1 TD and 1 INT) while they also ran for 63 yards, but Chicago had 221 passing yards (1 TD and 1 INT) and 77 rushing yards, with penalties costing GB the win. Following on from that, in the last round, with GB needing a win, which they did 10-3 at home, a nervous looking Rodgers had 229 passing yards (1 TD and 1 INT) with 60 rushing yards, while Chicago's Cutler had 168 passing yards (2 INT) and they ran for 110 yards. GB were able to put much more pressure on Cutler as they had 6 sacks with the 2 INTs, while Chicago had 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery and an INT, then GB has been much better on offence, as well as defence. Adding to Starks having a very good last couple of games, and the offence has become much more balanced. Though Chicago are very good in stopping the run (90 yards - ranked 2nd) they can be passed on, as they allow 224 passing yards (ranked 19th). Seattle showed last week that they can still be passed on, and with the form Rodgers is in, he can take advantage of this. Should be a low scoring game as both defence are very good, and both of their regular season games went under this total. Pittsburg - New York Jets under 37.5 @ 2.00 Pittsburg allows 214 passing yards per game (ranked 12th) but it is their number one ranked rush defence, that allows just 63 yards per game, that will be pivotal to their success here. In the divisional game against Baltimore, they had a huge second half to come back from 21-7 down to allow just 3 points and they ended up winning 31-24. They allowed just 125 passing yards (1 TD and 1 INT) while only 35 rushing yards were allowed. Pittsburg did sack Flacco 5 times and had a fumble recovery as well. The Jets allowed New England's Brady to pass for 299 yards (2 TDs and 1 INT) as well as 113 rushing yards in the 28-21 win, with 5 sacks and 2 fumble recoveries, while Sanchez passed for 194 yards (3 TDs) and ran for 120 yards. Against the Indy Colts, Manning passed for just 225 yards (1 TD) and ran for 93 yards, while Sanchez threw for 189 yards (1 TD) and they ran for 169 yards. In the round 15 meeting in Pittsburg which the Jets won 22-17, Pittsburg passed for 264 yards (1 TD) and ran for 147 yards, while Sanchez passed for 170 yards and they ran for 106 yards, so Pittsburg had over 100 more yards, but they allowed a kick off return and a safety. Also with Polamalu back for this game, as he missed this Jets game, the Steelers will be much more solid. The Jets may have one of the best rushing teams but they face the best rush defence in the league. Expecting Sanchez to win this game is not something that he has shown that he is capable of doing, so if the Pittsburg defence plays like they did in the second half against Baltimore, though the Jets were very good in beating Indy and NE, this is a much better defence they are up against. Hard to see the Jets doing much on this defence, while Pittsburg will not have it any easier as the Jets allow 200 passing yards (ranked 6th) and 91 rushing yards (ranked 3rd) per game, so can see this being a low scoring game, but Pittsburg do have the better QB here Record: 10-4 (6.64) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick121212 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Great write-ups there blackcrow. Good luck to you sir! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arwl1976 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks one player pick for me on the first game Devin Hester Under 27.5 yards receiving SkyBet 10/11 he was under the total both games against GB this year and im pretty sure i heard in the last game that they were trying to reduce the amount of plays he makes as a wide receiver to keep him fresh for the returning game. I may have misheard but this would suggest he wont see much of the ball when Chicago are driving and even if he does get a couple of catches ill trust GB's secondary to tone down his yardage just hope now i can finish work before the game starts! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick121212 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears - Under 43.5 points @ 1.90 (unibet) Both these teams took part in high scoring games in their divisional playoff games last week with GB scoring over this total by themselves against Atlanta. While this does have the potential to happen again, with Rodgers winning the plaudits of every NFL fan, the prize for the winner of this match is huge, and with both teams not reaching this stage in a while and both QBs being quite young, nerves are sure to play a part. They've both played each other this season twice, with this match-up ending 20-17 to Chicago, and both matches staying Under. Also with the weather looking bad that could play a part. With both pass Green Bay's pass defense being strong, Cutler will struggle to get a hold on this game, which could damage Chicago's attempts to get up the field, while Chicago's strong rush defense might help stop Starks which could also damage the Packer's offense. This should be a tight nervy game and I can't predict a winner. On form it's Green Bay but I wouldn't count Chicago out of this. Also, and interesting fact which I discovered - 'Since 1996, teams that score 40 or more points in a playoff game fall back to earth the following week, when they are just 2-18 against the spread.' Interesting me thinks. :tongue2 Good luck everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Cutler under 240.5 passing yards @ 1.91 Skybet (5/10) I’m happy to be on Cutler’s unders here. Ok, he threw well last week against the Seahawks, but this is completely different opposition and here they will face a much tougher defence. Green Bay are usually pretty good at restricting the pass, but crucially they are a decent defence all round and you’d fancy them to stop a number of drives, restricting Cutler’s time on the game field. Since week 3 of the season he’s been over this 240 mark just 4 times, so the statistics are there to back this bet up. With the Bears often looking to their running game too, the unders really appeal to me here. Starks over 52.5 rushing yards @ 1.87 Bodog (4/10) I think this line is a little too high against a perhaps overrated Bears defence against the rush. For the regular season it was ranked 2nd in this department but that was mostly due to its good work in the early stages. If you look at the stats in depth, the Bears actually allowed over 100 yards rushing against the likes of NYJ, Vikings, Patriots, Lions and Eagles, all in the last few games of the season. Ok, in the Packers match week 16 they didn’t allow much, but that was a strange game and a bit of an exception. Last week it was strong against the Seahawks, but this will be a tougher challenge. In James Starks they are facing someone who is clearly in form and impressed both play off weeks, going well over 100 against the eagles and 66 last week. Clearly the Packers are using him more, and crucially nobody else either, Jackson is out of the picture. I think he is capable of going over 52.5 based on what I’ve seen recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Mendenhall over 70.5 rushing yards @ 1.85 bwin (3/10) This match is a real nightmare for me and I just don’t fancy that much to take, bookies seem very clued up with a lot of the lines. Initially, I fancied Mendenhall’s unders here, but on closer inspection, I fancy his overs. The jets don’t often allow a single individual over a big number of rushing yards, but in total they do tend to allow over a 100 in total rushing in a number of games, its just the yardage is usually split between people. The Steelers here will go with Mendenhall 95% of the time on the rush, maybe Redman for the odd carry but he’s going to see a lot of action. Green Ellis and Woodhead seemed to do aright against this defence last week managing close to a 100 between them. In the earlier match between these two teams, Mendenhall ran 99 in total and he’s looked sharp throughout the whole campaign. The Jets are very strong against the pass so I think the Steelers will look to Rashard a few times tonight, I’m happy to be on over 70.5, but only take it 3/10 Best of luck everyone in this championship play off round :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick121212 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Cutler under 240.5 passing yards @ 1.91 Skybet (5/10) I’m happy to be on Cutler’s unders here. Ok, he threw well last week against the Seahawks, but this is completely different opposition and here they will face a much tougher defence. Green Bay are usually pretty good at restricting the pass, but crucially they are a decent defence all round and you’d fancy them to stop a number of drives, restricting Cutler’s time on the game field. Since week 3 of the season he’s been over this 240 mark just 4 times, so the statistics are there to back this bet up. With the Bears often looking to their running game too, the unders really appeal to me here. Following this. I like it. I am a Broncos fan and although he had his good days when he was with us I didn't think he was a great QB. He is very erratic and it might be interesting to note that the Bears are the most sacked team in the NFL regular season. With Green Bay having a good pass defense and sacking the joint 2nd most in the regular season they might be able to get in Cutler's face. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookiebasher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks GOOD LUCK TONIGHT BLACKCROW...IM ON GREENBAY -3 TONIGHT...IVE FOLLOWED YOUR TIPS ALL SEASON BUT SOMETIMES TAKE THE LESSER HANDICAPS...TO GREAT AFFECT......WHAT A START BY THE PACKERS...TOUCHDOWN AFTER 2 MINUTES....ONCE AGAIN GOOD LUCK GUYS :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
totse Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks EventPittsburgh Steelers - New York Jets Selectionover 48.5 Strength10/10 Date24/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price5Dimes @ 4.10 ReasoningThe Steelers allowed last home match 21 points against not so strong team like Baltimore, while they scored 28 points. Steelers are in good fit 15-4 in last 19 matches their offence is stronger than ever, but Jets aren't so weak. The Jest scored 28 against Patriots, they also defeated Colts both two matches on the road in 2011 NFL playoffs. These two teams played in December when Jets won 22-17, so Steelers aren't so strong when they are playing against the Jets. Jets are with strong offence when playing on the road, this is playoff match, both side will be nervous I think we will see too many mistakes and turnovers, so my predict is another over here. The Jets were eliminated last season at that level they will look for revenge, if they scored their regular 20 points this game goes over and I believe that will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arwl1976 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks well been lucky with hester so far didnt expect him to line up so much glad cutler overthrew him when he was wide open! next game player picks roethlisberger over 255.5 yards only been under this 4 times this year and was over when playing the jets earlier in season santonio holmes under 57.5 yards only been over this 5 times this season but under it against pittsburgh earlier and under in the two playoff games braylon edwards over 55.5 yards taking a chance on this, he was over when playing steelers earlier and been over 8 times in regular season and once in playoffs with being 4 yards of doing it in the other playoff game mike wallace over 72.5 yards over 10 times in the regular season including against the jets and progressed all season into a good weapon for the steelers last 5 games of the regular season was over this total i like this one and since writing this cutler has missed hester on two easy throws! think im living on borrowed time on that pick but maybe the gods are smiling on me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arwl1976 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks whos got lots of money? GB over 15.5 points 1/50 on Skybet. do me a favour! no way they are not going to even get a field goal in the second half the chicago defense is all over the place. that 25 yard run by rodgers was a joke he had the field all to himself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arwl1976 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks guys anyone viewing this thread, what happens to the pick on cutler under 240.5 yards by meatman now that cutler is injured? do we still score on it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arwl1976 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks meatman yr watching the thread do you know what happens? good pick by the way! chicago are over now with cutler out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzyg Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks whos got lots of money? GB over 15.5 points 1/50 on Skybet. do me a favour! no way they are not going to even get a field goal in the second half the chicago defense is all over the place. that 25 yard run by rodgers was a joke he had the field all to himself Hmmm ? Still confident...7 minutes left in the 4th and 0 2nd half pts for Green Bay and lets face it, next possession the get will be about running the clock down rather than point scoring.......could have been a very very expensive one. LOL you're ok now....Int return for 7 GB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks Cutler under 240.5 passing yards @ 1.91 Skybet (5/10) I’m happy to be on Cutler’s unders here. Ok, he threw well last week against the Seahawks, but this is completely different opposition and here they will face a much tougher defence. Green Bay are usually pretty good at restricting the pass, but crucially they are a decent defence all round and you’d fancy them to stop a number of drives, restricting Cutler’s time on the game field. Since week 3 of the season he’s been over this 240 mark just 4 times, so the statistics are there to back this bet up. With the Bears often looking to their running game too, the unders really appeal to me here. Starks over 52.5 rushing yards @ 1.87 Bodog (4/10) I think this line is a little too high against a perhaps overrated Bears defence against the rush. For the regular season it was ranked 2nd in this department but that was mostly due to its good work in the early stages. If you look at the stats in depth, the Bears actually allowed over 100 yards rushing against the likes of NYJ, Vikings, Patriots, Lions and Eagles, all in the last few games of the season. Ok, in the Packers match week 16 they didn’t allow much, but that was a strange game and a bit of an exception. Last week it was strong against the Seahawks, but this will be a tougher challenge. In James Starks they are facing someone who is clearly in form and impressed both play off weeks, going well over 100 against the eagles and 66 last week. Clearly the Packers are using him more, and crucially nobody else either, Jackson is out of the picture. I think he is capable of going over 52.5 based on what I’ve seen recently. Well done :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookiebasher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks SPOT ON BLACKCROW...YOU THE MAN DUDE...PLUS THE UNDERS...IM ON STEELERS-3 POINTS AGAIN...AS A CHARGERS FAN I WONT FEEL SO BAD IF THE JETS DO IT AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE L.T. GO TO A SUPERBOWL...BUT I THINK THE STEELERS HAVE MORE ACES ON THERE PACK...:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks GOOD LUCK TONIGHT BLACKCROW...IM ON GREENBAY -3 TONIGHT...IVE FOLLOWED YOUR TIPS ALL SEASON BUT SOMETIMES TAKE THE LESSER HANDICAPS...TO GREAT AFFECT......WHAT A START BY THE PACKERS...TOUCHDOWN AFTER 2 MINUTES....ONCE AGAIN GOOD LUCK GUYS :drums :cheers :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.