Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November

[wizzkid walter]

1:50 Cheltenham - Cue Card - Back This race is quite simply all about Cue Card. His reputation is humongous given he is still unbeaten in racing, notably including him hacking up here in the Champion Bumper at the festival in March. He followed this recently by making a terrific winning debut over hurdles, when his jumping looked particularly impressive considering it was his first run over hurdles. If that was anything to go by, he has an extremely exciting future over hurdles and I expect him to win here before his year then focuses back towards the 2011 festival 1pt win @ 5/6 Bet365 BOG

[Monterosso]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 1:15 Cheltenham - Knowhere - 1pt @ 9/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Highly talented 12 year old who on his day would be massively well in here, he doesn't have too many good performances nowadays but he still retains enough ability to go close here if coping with a 5 month lay off. He has a great record when fresh and is a previous 2 time Grade 2 winner, including once at this course in similar conditions to that which he faces now. His highest career win came off a mark of 154 and he runs here off 137, his lowest career mark and well below marks that he has run well off before. He's from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard who are brilliant at getting a horse ready and they won this race last year with Razor Royale, he scored so easily when winning by 23 lengths. Hopefully they're planning to take this again with a horse who clearly goes well around here and has even contested two Cheltenham Gold Cups. There's a fair chance that we'll get a relatively slowly run race and that should help as this fellow has tendencies to throw in the odd poor jump but with less emphasis on him to jump under pressure we may see him in a better light, he also has a very good amateur jockey on board as Derek O'Connor takes the ride, he's a highly competent jockey and he has a fine 16% strike rate over fences. O'Connor has ridden on 16 occasions over the fences of Cheltenham, he's yet to taste victory but has placed on 7 occasions, hopefully he'll get his slice of luck this year and take the amateur contest here on his only ride of the day. Twiston-Davies' yard are in good order and have done well here in recent seasons, they're sure to have Knowhere tuned up and ready to put up a bold bid here after a few months rest, as previously said, his record fresh has been brilliant over the years and he's very well in on these terms with conditions likely to suit. If he could get his jumping right just one more time then it'll be very very tough to see him beaten as that's the only thing that has stopped him from being the force of old and even improving beyond what he once was. He's 12 years old now but that doesn't tamper my enthusiasm, he's very good with some cut in the ground and with the weather as it stands, there is a fair chance it'll be Good-to-Soft or even Soft, either will suit perfectly and increase his chances tenfold. He showed enough last season to suggest there could still be one or two more wins in him yet and I believe this is an ideal chance to do so. It's a tough race by all means but he looks to have a very lively chance for a yard who have won this before, coupled with an interesting jockey booking and ground suiting him, all of this suggests to me that he should be a lot shorter than the current 9/1 on offer and the odds compliers are just basing that on his most recent run in which he lived to to his name and came nowhere. He's a 5/1 shot in my book, bordering on favourite and I'm expecting a big run, small stakes due to the type of race but he stands a lively chance and is by far and away the best horse in the race, I'm just afraid of something progressing past his current abilities but he could still have enough.

[chris34]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 12.55 Lingfield Good looking nursery and the unexposed and handicap debutant Tullius looks the one to beat! Showed nothing on debut but was off 3 months till october and clearly showed he appreciated the snip and clearly come on from some extra training, when out battling the second horse and finishing well clear of the 4th horse and rest of field and 3rd horse has gone on to run well since and opening mark could have been tougher on that evidence and is related to another useful 2yr on this surface Poster who was rated as high as 100 in 2008 (hasnt been seen since). 1pt win Tullius

[andyjkmak]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 4.05 Cheltenham Othermix was a bit disappointing last time out but I really think he needed the run and he should have a really good chance here. Much to big at the price and with a bit further to go he should run really well. 1 Pt win 13/2 Hills

[Dtrains]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 1.15 Hoping to start the open meeting with a bang so :hope for the selection which is Quattrocento. Ran very well over CD here last month to win the race by 6 length ahead of swing bill who re-opposes here today, raised 9lb for that win but is only a 6 y-o so there could well still be more to come, the rider has a win on the horse so knows it well has a CD win and this has been the target since that win so hoping for a good run. 1pt win 5/1 bet365

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 3.35 CHELTENHAM~ AMORE MIO 28/1 E/W VC Top run here a year ago when 4th to the useful Wolf Moon not beaten far that day and is now 6lb lower here and should go well if Trainer has it fit. Jock has won a couple of race of late from few rides. Decent e/w with PP 25/1 paying 5 places but VC for thread purpose.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November Cheltenham 1.15 Notabotheronme EW - 20/1 Coral Improved for cheek-pieces winning at Chepstow and then finishing 2nd at Warwick. Possibly over the top at Newbury on latest start. I think the odds compilers are making a mistake here. It's true the horse needs softer and is a lazy sort, but with the cheek-pieces applied, he's been straightforward. He proved it last year. Best form is on soft and heavy, but he has a 2nd at Chepstow on good to soft and ran a very good race last year here when 6th behind Razor Royale again on good to soft. With the yard in such a great form, I think this fella has his chances off the bottom of the handicap.

[zoolander]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November Cheltenham 2:25 Pocket Aces 40-1 BET365(BOG) 0.5pts EW I think this race on todays card is open for an outsider challenge. Pocket Aces takes a substantial drop in trip but i think this will suit and with Leighton Aspell on board he is a jockey i rate highly. Running off a decent mark and the weight advantage off the favorites makes this horse a danger and may place or even more. Price looks to too high.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 250 Newcastle: Roll Over Rosie EW (14/1 PP) The second novice race at Newcastle is competative and lots of form to chew over, top rated is Roll Over Rosie, a very promising debut last season but followed by being pulled up the last twice, if she can bounce back the price is good. Fav is Empress Orchid, fair form but the connections are making this fav, Catleen and Tchikita are also in with a shout in a very open contest. At the prices i must give Roll Over Rosie one last chance to show her best form.

[calculus]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 12.55 Lingfield - West Leake Melody (8/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Not exactly set the world alight in 4 starts thus far, however has caught my eye on more than one occaison and looked to have been teed up for a nice mark after 3 runs in maidens, not entirely sure what went wrong on debut in a nursery at Nottingham last time out but gets in here off an even lower mark for it's AW debut and I would be quite surprised were he not good enough to be very competitive off this sort of mark.

[Aidymac]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November Flinty Bay - Newcastle 12:35 Will be in the places for sure but i think this will win today, its 2 outings were eye-catching and the face it went off favourite last time suggests a win is not far away and today is the today i feel. Has 1 or 2 that may trouble it but i think this is a Cheltenham horse. 1 Point Win @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes) BOG

[kerznerpunt]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 3.35 Cheltenham, Entertain me, 1pt e/w at 33/1 with Bet365 - BOG A fairly competitive event as you expect.Aegean Dawns mark of 114 looks very very fair and the Henderson trained horse could take all the beating here. Chance du Roy ran more then ok over fences and might have something to offer over hurdles too, while Rhum does look a good bet at 16/1. But the one standout bet looks Entertain me, this horse is one underrated indivudal and he go off at to big prices nearly everytime hes out there. Absouletely cant understand this price as he won with a bit in hand last time out and he easily could defy his penalty, conditions suit and im willing to take a gamble at 33/1.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November DUNDALK 7.30 KING OF KILBERRY 20-1 1pt ew (VC BET) king of Kilberry is no world beater thats for sure,but has been running some sound races in defeat...Last time out here over 11furlongs ran a decent race ,probably stretched it too far,ended up 9 lengths behind gambled horse night glimmer(which won by 3 lenghts).. From that race 3 horses have went on to win again,rederra won next time out over 11f,Mac tienan went on to win a decent race at naas,and Sovento me old friend won a race at kempton on the 27th october..Plus shutruk nahhunte placed in a decent race which was won by redera.. In its prevous race over 8f at dundalk it was beaten by 5 lengths Boynagh joy and was just unlucky in a blanket finish for the places.....boynagh joy went on to win two races,one at the curragh in a big feild and one at dundalk on the 6th november.,also a fair few went on to place since that and the form looks strong. I think this horse is improving but is waiting for things to fall into place and tonight could be the night,dropping back to 7furlongs,comes in here offa mark of 47,and the claimer is taking off a whopping 10 pounds making it effectively off a mark of 37..its hard to match it off against the rest of the filed but i think it has the beaten of the favourite Intyre trail,the danger will come from the king of dundalk's horse Future earner..

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November Qhilimar 1.15 Cheltenham. 1 point win. Needs to find a bit on the bare form, but lightly raced and open to finding steady improvement again this season. The trip and ground shouldn't be a concern and jumps well enough, so every chance I feel.

[Falbrav]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November DAVE'S DREAM 2.25 Cheltenham. 1 Point Win. Has the ability to go well today and although needs to prove fitness, I think the recent wind operation will be the making of him. Anyhow, today will tell. Trip and ground not a concern.

[wafer]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 4:05 Reve De Sivola @ Cheltenham - Been in great form over hurdles in the last two years and will love the softer ground.First time in a chase today and sur to go close 1 pt Win bet @ SP

[Lars]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November Sorry this is brief. 17:50 Wolverhampton 14/1 for Liberty Trail is massive and for a horse whose only run one bad race on the all-weather in five attempts, he's worth a very decent sized bet. Has a huge chance based on his 2nd over CD three runs ago, off a mark 4lbs higher than he runs off today. Looked in trouble but stuck to his task well that day. Has been run over 7f at Wolverhampton since then but that looks a little bit too far for him. Should suit back at 6f and Cheekpieces could help, well drawn and race should be run to suit. EW @ 14/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 3.15 Lingfield - El Dececy - 18/1 E/W VC Very open race this with only 4lb separating the 12 runners, not a race to get to heavily involved in. Quite a few of these are hold up sorts with El Dececy looking the most likely to front run from stall 1. Has form over the course and distance and isnt that badly handicapped on some form from 2008. Won comfortably on the turf off 65 this summer, now off 74 and if getting his own way in front could run a big race here. Has been mostly consistent of late so has a good chance of at least running a place at a big price.

[Trotter]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November Wolv 6.50 - Realisation - win at 2/1 BOG with bet365 Lightly raced Johnston horse who was sent over to dundalk for his first go on the polytrack. He won that day, an equivalent to our class 4 handicap and recorded a huge speed figure - one that should only be achievable by group horses (Tho' I'm a bit dubious about Dundalk standard times as quite a lot of horses produce huge speed figs over there ! ) Has gone up 5 lbs for that win but as he's had only had 8 career runs he could well still be improving. That run at Dundalk didn't quite come out of the blue as he'd previously finished a half length 2nd in a class 3 at warwick Should be OK at Wolves if he acts at Dundalk Old stand guard is being backed again as he was last time - he's a cracking horse and is well handicapped but but he's never won over further than 10F I'll take my fellow to outstay him in the finish.

[yidstar]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November

Sorry this is brief. 17:50 Wolverhampton 14/1 for Liberty Trail is massive and for a horse whose only run one bad race on the all-weather in five attempts, he's worth a very decent sized bet. Has a huge chance based on his 2nd over CD three runs ago, off a mark 4lbs higher than he runs off today. Looked in trouble but stuck to his task well that day. Has been run over 7f at Wolverhampton since then but that looks a little bit too far for him. Should suit back at 6f and Cheekpieces could help, well drawn and race should be run to suit. EW @ 14/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

Cheers Lars. Great call :clap

[Lars]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November

Cheers Lars. Great call :clap

Cheers! Sorry about the rushed write up, would normally have given it a full commentary last night but had a ton of work to do, but was still pretty confident! Great ride by Callan too.

[Lars]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November And to add to that, he wasn't even well-drawn :lol

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November 8.50 Wolverhampton A superb little handicap to close proceedings from Dunstall Park tonight with David Simocks Rjeef heading the market at 4/1. The unexposed three year is old unbeaten on the AW and is stepped up in trip as he attempts to overcome a 210 day absence. Thats enough to put me off the price though and I am looking elsewhere. London Mile winner Chapter and Verse could have more to offer and the yard's runners are running well enough whilst Baylini should be finishing off her race with a rattle and rarely runs a bad race. The clear value pick in the race looks to be SERADIM, however. Paul Cole has his string in good nick and the horse faded close home having been stepped up in trip at Kempton, latest. She has form at around a mile and won on the all-weather over in France so the available prices look too big. 14/1 Paddypower, 1 pt win.