Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

[StuSimmy]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Nice work Ginge :notworthy

[Stevet1859]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Great reasoning and write ups producing very impressive results GT :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Top stuff mate. :clap

[oldjohn69]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Hello Ginger, I'm sure you will remember my name from another website. I resigned because someone on the team censored me and accused me of egging people on to take sides ! I couldn't see anything of the sort in what I wrote and my language was always moderate. Anyway within seconds of resigning i was history and couldn't get any explanation. I think I must have unwittingly touched a raw nerve somewhere but I rattled someone's cage (or did someone else rattle the big boss'es cage.?) Is there any way of investigating ?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Will see what I can find out John.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Thanks guys for all your kind comments. I am just waiting for the bubble to burst.

Day One: 1:00 Newbury -40 @ 9/4 Line Freedom Fell 6 @ 7/1 Sparky May 1^st Return 48 points :nana (46) 2 points profit Line Freedom and Sparky May were disputing it when the latter took a tired looking fall at the last. Probably did not change the result. Alverstone didn't have the chance the betting suggested (odds-on), back in trip and more of a stayer. It is doubtful any of these will be anything other than handicappers. Winner's trainer P.R. Rodford is in good form and should not be under-estimated. Sparky Gale went out from 5/1 to 7/1 in the morning when I put the saver on; then backed in to 9/2 SP. Line Freedom going the other way out to 3/1. It's a funny old game. 2:10 Newbury -23 @ 10/1 Sound Stage 2^nd -19 @ 10/1 thetwincamdrift -20 @ 9/4 Zarrafakt -3 @ 27/1 Nostringsattached -65 points deficit Exceptionally well backed from 10/1 to 4/1, Soud Stage travelled and jumped well up until quite an error 4 out. Though doubt if it made the difference. It's great to see Kim Bailey back in the winners enclosure, in great form with three handicap winners at this meeting. Buffulo Bob pricking his ears up the run-in, possibly had more in hand. Sir Ian probably improved, just not well enough handicapped, weakening late. Thetwincamdrift found things happening too quickly, staying on fourth on reappearance. May be worth keeping an eye on when back at 3 miles or more. Zarafakt disappointed after an early mistake. Wasn't that good a jumper over hurdles and it's to be hoped it does not hinder his progress chasing. 2:45 Newbury -18 @ 10/1 Vagrant Emporer 2^nd -17 @ 14/1 Nobby Kivambo 27 @ 9/2 Full Of Joy 1^st Return 148.5 points :nana (62) 86.5 points profit Pleasing result, with two main bets obviously travelling best from some way out. Going 16 lengths clear with Full Of Joy (probably with a fitness edge) just prevailing for his in form trainer. Showed he can take two races in quick succession, but might have to be out again in double quick time under a penalty. Sure to go up a lot for this. Big run must have been expected, in to 2/1 from 9/2. Hopefully Emma can keep this grand chasing type sound. Vagrant Emperer not seen since March 09. Should make up for lost time with more improvement to come. Although may need time to recover from this. Nobby Kivambo ran well enough, taking it up 4 out but weakening in to 6^th. 3:15 Newbury -34 (17 ew) @ 12/1 Swincombe Rock -34 points deficit Sad to hear of Tell Massini's death, fell at the cross-fence. Tom George's stable star was high up in the RSA betting. Looking the part for chasing, being a top staying novice hurdler. Aighteenthirtythree looked an easy winner. But the distances don't give a full picture, 17 lengths winning margin a nonsense. Travelled well at a good pace for some way. Then began to flag up the straight when clear, jumping right as he tired. Richard Johnson on the second Voramar Two looked behind and seemed to accept the situation fully four from home (mistake there). Not until the last, when Voramar Two seemed in with a squeak did Johnson make a brief effort; before allowing his mount to slow to almost a walk. It is possible Aighteenthirtythree went too fast early and is a promising individual. Voramar Two also has potential, particularly if running in handicap company. Swincombe Rock ran a shocker, knew my fate early, jumping right handed after a mistake at the first. How didn't I make a profit? Days Deficit -10.5 points :( Day Two: Mention should be made of Smad Place who initiated a first and second race double for Alan King with a 27 lengths success. Now second fav for the Triumph. Although is one who should take high rank, his performance seemed all about stamina (even this early in the season). By March he may need 2 ½ miles in top company. Stable-mate Little George is far from little, not surprising he's doing better over the larger obstacles. Well placed by his trainer to win a handicap on chasing debut. Did not get in to the race until staying on as others tired. Should be suited by further than this 2m2½ f. Showed a high head carriage, but found plenty for pressure and seems genuine. 1:35 Newbury 52 @ 4/1 Barafundle 1^st Return 260 points :nana -10 @ 11/2 Cotswold Charmer -3 @ 37/1 Estates Recovery (65) 195 points profit Made Barafundle a true 5/2 shot and took 4/1 with VC Thursday evening. Came right in to 2/1 SP. Wondered in the paddock whether I'd done the right thing. Slightly dip-backed gelding with a coat trimmed in the way some of the Pipe runners used to be. Looked to be running up a little light (skinny), this his second start in 6 days. No worries in the race, always travelling supremely well up with the pace;. Needed to be put under pressure on the run-in only when idling. Won this easily, but will have more on once reassessed for Haydock. In truth did not need to improve, impressive though it was. Cotswold Charmer and Estates Recovery ran poorly. Buena Vista (not the Japanese version) ran a strange race. At his best racing up with the pace, yet tried held up here; always in rear. Judging by last season will be back to usual tactics come a repeat bid for the Pertemps Hurdle. Grade 2 Chase winner Cois Farraig benefitted from the two market rivals faults. Fine big chasing type himself, but unlikely to go on to a higher level. Less than 3 lengths in hand of 22/1 shot On Borrowed Wings. Coral Cup winner Spirit River started odds-on, jumped fluently up until putting in a short one and coming down at the 11th, should develop in to a top novice. Celestial Halo made many errors, the one at the final open ditch ending his chance. Set to go back hurdling. 2:45 Newbury -42 @ 11/4 Matuhi 2^nd -6 @ 54/1 Perse Rock BD -6 @ 8/1 Call Me A Legend -54 points deficit Matuhi ran as well as expected, but only good enough for second. Beaten by Aigle D'Or who had dropped to a good handicap mark after a poor first year chasing. Thrown in on Greatwood Hurdle form, as said in my preview, a market move proved significant. Won with a bit in hand. It will be interesting if the handicapper is able to put him up to anywhere near his hurdles mark. Perse Rock did not make any bad errors this time, but brought down halfway. Call Me A Legend ran encouragingly, first start since cracking his pelvis and rightly not given a hard reintroduction. Possibly needed it, never in the hunt and nearest at the finish. Might do better, possibly over 2 ½ miles. Days Profit 141 points :nana Day Three: 12:25 Newbury -24 (12ew) @ 16/1 Nearby -25 @ Evens Binocular 3^rd -49 points deficit They didn't go that fast early and Peddlers Cross was in the right place in that respect. Wasn't going quite as well two out as either Binocular or (in particular) Starluck. However, Donald McCain's horse quickened immediately when asked, not once but twice. Looked fit in the paddock. Very genuine race horse, it's difficult to know just how much more might be left in the tank. Quite a bit of improvement made here and is deservedly second fav for the Champion Hurdle, we know he goes well at Cheltenham. Starluck was suited by the slowly run race (slower than Tocca Ferro). Though it may be he'll always find little, as he did so here and Kempton (sharp track) last year. Weakening was nothing to do with fitness. Binocular was a bit disappointing, though it's a lot better than last season's reappearance. Looked as though the race would bring him on and (to my eyes) blew more than the others afterwards. Might be more a spring horse anyway. AP rightly not hard on him once beaten. Nearby (my main bet) disappointed, looked as though his coat was in transition. Might have kept summer coat longer than most for earlier success. Though in truth, never likely to find the improvement of Peddlers Cross. At least I had the knowledge of getting the value, backed at 16/1, SP 10/1. 2:00 Newbury 38 @ 7/2 Tocca Ferro 1^st Return 171 points :nana -20 @ 15/2 Stormy Weather -7 @ 9/1 Advisor -5 @ 14/1 Rebel Dancer -4 @ 17.5/1 Praxiteles (74) 97 points profit All the rest wanted a lead and Praxiteles as expected (with the help of Dtrains) got a lead at the start. Somewhat surprisingly though, Master Scu set a good pace. It was good to see Tocca Ferro cruise through the race and only needing to a smack or two when idling on the run in. Should help his handicap mark. Make no mistake, Emma's hurdling star had any amount in hand. Rebel Dancer showed good speed, held up for a late run. Could be suited by a sharper track. Olofi travelled quite well until two out and then got outpaced before staying on again. Might do better over further or softer/stamina test at 2m; same comments apply for The Betchworth Kid. Stormy Weather ran as though needing the race after travelling well for a long way. Advisor virtually brought down, trainers words beforehand suggested another target anyway; very easy to back. Big Buck's is worth mentioning won easily enough, did his usual idling on the run-in. Looks in a league of his own in staying hurdles. 3:05 Newbury -23 @ 8/1 Weird Al -16 @ 20/1 China Rock did not run 8 @ 8/1 Diamond Harry 1^st Return 72 points :nana -12 @ 22/1 Carruthers -3 @ 25/1 Hey Big Spender (62) 10 points profit With an eight race programme there wasn't any time to get on here with another small bet on Diamond Harry. Sorry after-timing, though if I thought 8/1 was good value why wouldn't I go in again at 9's? Anyway... Fantastic to be there and witness a great race, better quality than 09 or 08. When Denman went upsides turning for home the crowd started shouting him home, whether they'd backed him or not. The old boy ran his heart out, in my opinion just as good a form performance as either win. Beaten by a couple of good second season chasers. Change of tactics saw Diamond Harry up there from the start under Darryll Jacob, who kept the ride despite usual jockey Timmy Murphy being available. Coped well with a faster surface, jumping reasonably until getting the last two a bit wrong, staying on well nevertheless. Judging by his record it won't be surprising if Diamond Harry fails to go on from this. Best fresh and the decision to go straight for the Gold Cup, the right one. Despite the break neck pace it proved difficult to make up ground. Burton Port came from further behind than most (mid-division) and improved significantly. Just running out of time on the run-in. Possibly unlucky, in making a significant error at the cross-fence. Whether he has enough improvement to challenge for top honours is debatable. The Tother One ran a strange race. Took a fairly prominent position early, but never jumping or travelling with any fluencey. Outpaced in the back/cross straight, before staying on very strongly to almost get up for third. Niche Market ran his race, just too exposed to win a race like this. Though still strikes as a Grand National type. Taranis as usual travelled well for a long way. Did not find much in the straight. Probably due to being poorly handicapped more than fitness, as has a good record fresh. Hopefully he can be kept sound this term. Wish Carruthers could get an easy lead in one of these big races, convinced he can win one of these. Unfortunately, Mattie Bachelor chose to go up the inner again. I've noticed front runners who are unable to lead, run better on the outer where they have an uninterupted view of a fence - instead of being amongst horses. Madison Du Berlais, a similar type, also on the inner took a fall. Bringing down Neptunes Collonges. Weird Al possibly not over his hard race at Carlisle. Not far behind Burton Port at the cross-fence, so close enough if good enough. Hey Big Spender failed to stay. Led until the turn, Aiden Coleman not seen at his best, hard ridden in the straight when seemingly beaten and taking a tired fall at the last. Razor Royale is inconsistent. Been agressively campaigned since his Racing Post win. Probably does not fully stay this trip, but does not look in the same form anyway. Barber Shop raced with ears pricked in first time blinkers. Gone the wrong way temperamentally. Silver By Nature predictably outpaced over a shorter trip and firmer ground, jumping not as good as usual as a result. Dream Alliance also outpaced and didn't seem to want to know. Big Fella Thanks uncharacteristicly fell early. Pandorama hampered early, never recovered and run best ignored. 3:40 Newbury 23 @ 10/1 Mount Oscar 1^st Return 253 points :nana -20 @ 13/2 Pasco 2^nd -7 @ 13/2 Prince De Beauchene (50) 203 points profit Satisfying result. Both Mount Oscar 10/1 in to 11/2 and Pasco (SP 4/1) exceptionally well backed. Had it between them coming to the last. Remember thinking Mount Oscar would make a decent chaser way back in his novice hurdles season. Taken time to get there (now 11), but hasn't had much racing since and is at least as good as ever. Master Twister again showing why he's one of the most promising young jockeys we've seen since AP. Not panicking when the leaders went for home round the turn. Mount Oscar staying on well all the way up the straight. Might even be more to come from him now jumping seems to be sorted out. Pasco ran right up to his best, tracking the pace until challenging in the straight. However, it's debatable whether he'll prove this good away from Newbury. The valuable 2 ½ mile race just before the Cheltenham Festival here might be his best chance of a big (ish) prize. Pipes have at last got the trip right for Piraya, now looking more genuine. Prince De Beauchene ran ok, probably unsuited by the drying ground. Days Profit 261 points :nana Newbury Festival Profit 391.5 points :cow Gingers Jumpers Profit 540 points :cow

Now done all three days results analysis.:ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 World Hurdle 11 points each way @ 20/1 (WH) Grande Crus Looking at my stakes so far, it seems I am putting too much on the each way selections so: Have slightly changed my each way stakes. Now 0.67% of win stake. So a 17 point win bet becomes 11 points each way (22 in all).

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 With Big Buck's so dominant in this division, I can see it cutting up. There is no way Peddlers Cross will run after his impressive 2 mile win at the weekend. Time For Rupert is the RSA favourite. Zaynar's temperament keeps getting worse. Long Run much more likely to remain chasing, not convinced he stays anyway. Don't know if Celestial Halo will take on his stable / owner companion. If he were mine I'd stick to the Champion, proved he has the pace when second to Punjabi, if anything going too quick early. Quel Esprit has won at 3m, but appeared to fail at the trip at Cheltenham. Karabak might reach a place, but is proven to be second class. Reve De Sivola is another going chasing. You'd expect one or two of those to run. Remember Billy Wallace tipping Powerstation last year at 33/1, who reached a place, in a race whose conditions favour each way betting. One with a short priced favourite that is likely to cut up. Grand Crus won at Haydock over 3 miles easily by 10 lengths from Barafundle, who franked the form in no uncertain terms on Friday. There was 14 lengths back to the third Peveril, an unexposed second season hurdler. Diamond Harry beat Burton Port in the same race last year. Grand Crus is improving fast, by the time Cheltenham comes around he should be rated too highly for handicaps. 150/1 for the RSA on Betfair, so that price indicates unlikely to go chasing. We know from his reappearance acts well there and may well end up the biggest danger to Big Buck's come March. The two possible “defects” with Big Buck's is whether his idling develops in to a temperamental flaw, and a tendency to make a mistake at the last. However, I actually believe BB is still value at odds-on for this. But after having my fingers burnt by backing Harbinger for the Arc, not going in big again on a shortie ante-post.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Nice to see the great Hugh Taylor copying me with Grand Crus. Though he went for Ladbrokes "with a run".

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

King George 27 points @ 14/1 (Sportingbet) Imperial Commander

Backed it before, but could not resist the price. Could not resist the price. King George VI Betting Without Kauto Star 12 points @ 6/1 (WH) Imperial Commander

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Another one for the King George: 13 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Nacarat

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Kauto Star will obviously be the one to beat, if he's as good as last year. Reappearance win in Ireland is nowhere near that level. May be he needed it, but last year ran to a better level when winning the Betfair. Almost 11 years old, likely to be on the downgrade some time within the next year. Long Run was mightily impressive here in the Feltham at this meeting last term. Hasn't lived up to expectations away from Kempton since. His form in France suggests a right-handed course is not important to him. Has more improvement in him if jumping better, but amateur jockey may be holding him back in that department too. Respectable run at Cheltenham on reappearance. 5/1 looks too short. Forpaddytheplasterer does not look value even on his best 2 mile form. Looking at the way he usually travels, is not crying out for further. Came there to win his reappearance, but yet again finished second finding little under pressure. The other Irish runner, Sizing Europe appeared to stay the trip against Kauto Star last time. Has some scope for further improvement, but not convinced about his attitude in a tight finish. Riverside Theatre would be interesting if taking part, as he has a lot of potential stepped up to 3 miles. However, is due to run in the Peterborough Chase which has just been put back to Sunday; which leaves just two weeks between races. Prices on Betfair seem to suggest he's now an unlikely starter at Kempton. Nacarat finished some way behind in the Betfair Chase on soft going at Haydock. Got involved in a dual for the lead with Imperial Commander, going too fast too soon. Travelled well until the straight before dropped away. Only just stays 3 miles and we know he goes particularly well around the sharp track at Kempton. Again, took on Kauto Star too far out last year, when fading in to fourth in this race. Hopefully this time around his jockey can preserve some energy for the finish. Planet Of Sound finished one place in front of Nacarat at Haydock, but had the run of the race more than that rival. Seemed to be exposed there as just below the very top grade, at a time when the stable was in good form. Won a poor Grade 2 in Ireland at the back end of last season. Beat War Of Attrition who was nowhere near the level of his Gold Cup win, and hadn't been for some time. Cooldine 3^rd made mistakes, Denman 4^th ran poorly going right-handed. Burton Port is unlikely to take part.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 2:25 Cheltenham 35 points @ 11/1 (Corals) Palypso De Creek 34 points @ 11/2 (WH) Midnight Chase

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 1:50 Cheltenham 29 points @ 8/1 (WH) Ackertac 21 points @ 12/1 (b365) Superior Wisdom

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

2:25 Cheltenham 35 points @ 11/1 (Corals) Palypso De Creek 34 points @ 11/2 (WH) Midnight Chase

Couple of savers 6 points @ 14/1 (SJ) From Dawn To Dusk 3 points @ 29/1 (betfair) Presenting Forever

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Another saver in the 2:25 Cheltenham 9 points @ 9/1 (b365) Horner Woods

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 1:50 Cheltenham Midnight Chase is improving in leaps and bounds. Excellent record here, made all at a good pace last time. There are quite a few prominent runners today, but there was last time too and burnt them off. Coming back slightly in trip should not hurt his chance and has a favourite's chance. Horner Woods was the most difficult horse to give a percentage to. By far his best performance in the 09 RSA, a long way second to Cooldine. Possibly flattered, staying on past beaten horses, but did seem to have plenty of potential, particularly over further. This trip the furthest he's gone. Trouble is was disappointing in three starts last season, not run for over a year. Now with Nicky Henderson from Jessica Harrington (one of Ireland's best). Market move this morning and last night is a definite positive for his chance. Well handicapped on RSA form and warrants a saver. Palypso De Creek is a better jumper than his last two performances suggest. Fell in Grand National final outing in 09/10 and again on reappearance. If that has not dented jumping confidence could be one to be interested in. Well backed there which implies he's improved this term. Very well handicapped on old French form. One of only a few to run well for his excellent handler last term. Now the normal strike rate has returned, may be able to show further improvement. Has winning form on both soft and good ground. Rare Bob appeared to run well on “reappearance”, but that was when making the running in a small field. Trainer is in good form and AP aboard. Good third at Aintree when last seen over here. Neptune Collonges is well handicapped on old form. Injured and first run since when brought down in Hennessey. That could not have helped and conditional jockey on board. Faasel might run his best races fresh (second in Kim Muir first time up last year). But does not win often enough to be a good win bet. From Dawn To Dusk travelled well for a long way in Midnight Chase's race before not appearing to stay. This slightly shorter trip and less testing ground is more in his favour. Ran well at the Festival last year before going on to success at Aintree in a big Haandicap. Phillip Hobbs is not in quite the same form now as he was a couple of weeks ago. Exmoor Ranger comes from an in form yard, but usually ruins his chance by jumping errors as he did last time. Knowhere is on the downgrade but handicap mark is too. Jumping is his downfall. Presenting Forever is my outsider saver, thought about making him a main bet. 8lbs out of the handicap, but better than ever last time. Jumped well out in front. Goes well on good ground and likes going left-handed. Stable was in excellent form before the freeze. 1:50 Cheltenham Cross Kennon improved winner here last time. That was over further on softer ground, but also placed in the Pertemps Final at the Festival at this trip and ground. From an under-rated trainer and jockey. Second in that race Viking Blond travelled well there and has a fair chance of reversing form in less testing conditions. Same goes for the fifth there, only more so. Free early, Ackertac looked booked for at least a place before weakening. Superior Wisdom won a heavy ground staying hurdle last time. Usually you'd oppose a horse in very different conditions, but has run very well before on good by over 20 lengths. Looked massively over-priced last night at 14/1. Have I got Lush Life Wrong? To my mind he's been handicapped on a lucky win over Menorah. Runner-up went too quick too soon and fluffed the last, poor ride by Johnson. Lush life does have potential, but all his form is at around 2 miles, sire best at 1m2f. First Stream is interesting, he too not sure to get the trip. However, sire Lomitas and dams-sire Bustino are both stamina influences. Looked likely winner before mistake at last last time. Stable in good form before the freeze. Buena Vista is more than interesting. Festival winner last season, like all his best form, ridden prominently; after being held up and dropped by the handicapper previously. Encouraging reappearance over fences this term before again held up no show at Newbury. If he's ridden with the pace today his price might look big, if not it would look very short. Look for a market move! Solway Sam given a lot to do on reappearance on his first start at around this trip, needed it. Big horse who might take some getting fit from very small yard. Sire Ascot Gold Cup winner, so has chance of staying. Possibly better suited by softer ground. Barwell Bridge is another not sure to stay. Sire and dams-sire Red Ransom and Diesis not noted for stamina inducing. Barwell Bridge came from well back in a slowly run 2 ½ mile race, showing speed.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

1:50 Cheltenham 29 points @ 8/1 (WH) Ackertac 21 points @ 12/1 (b365) Superior Wisdom

Savers: 5 points @ 14/1 (VC) Viking Blond 5 points @ 14/1 (b365) First Stream 3 points @ 20/1 (b365) Buena Vista

[Aidymac]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Well done Ginge.. :clap Great read too

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Thanks Aidymac. Now for tomorrow. 2:30 Cheltenham 24 points @ 6/1 (WH) Daves Dream 15 points @ 14.5/1 (betfair) Mad Max 8 points @ 89/1 (betfair) Duers 5 points @ 10/1 (Sky, SJ) Great Commander

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 1:55 Cheltenham 78 points @ Evens (PP, WH) Master Minded 5 points @ 11.5/1 (betfair) Twist Magic 7 points @ 8/1 (WH, C) Somersby

[suckerpuncher]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 There's no Great Commander in the 2:30 Cheltenham. But there's Great Endeavour. Do you mean this one?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Sorry Suckerpuncher, yes that is the one. And :welcome Here's another one for you. I believe the bookies / betting have got this race very wrong. 1:20 Cheltenham 21 points @ 12/1 (pp) Restless Harry 24 points @ 9.5/1 (betfair) Quartz De Thaix 26 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Banjaxed Girl

[Monterosso]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Well done today mate, you got Midnight spot on. That horse is amazing. Palypso De Creek will pay us off some day, he has so much ability, just hasn't got his chance to prove it fully. I'm a big fan of his ability, I've been following him for a fair while now. Hopefully he strikes gold soon. :hope Keep up the good work Sir, value is everything. :beer

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Thanks, will get back to you Monterosso. 1:55 Cheltenham The thing so impressive about the way Master Minded won at Ascot wasn't the form shown - did not need to be at his best – was the way he travelled through the race. In his first race since a wind operation, travelled and jumped with all his old enthusiasm. I was at Newbury when he beat trees last season, but did not do it anywhere near as well as Ascot. Master Minded has thrown in some poor runs in the last year or so, but that was before the op'. Everything he did on reappearance suggests those problems are behind him. If so he can still run over a stone below his very best and still win easily. We know Master Minded goes well in the ground and at the course. Of course it is possible his old problems will resurface, which is why he is not a 1/3 chance, but with all the above I believe he has around a 55% chance. What has he got to beat? Nick Williams did exceptionally well to get Gauvain back to win after a long lay off, but what did he beat? A dog, who would let a donkey past him on the run-in, rather than win a race (Forpaddytheplasterer). And one that is better on a sound surface (Tataniano). Form is suspect, although there might be improvement in him for his very much in form trainer. I've saved on Somersby. Expected him to need further this term, but travelled much easier than I thought he would at Exeter, before lack of fitness told. Stable are yet to get going this season, but should come on an awful lot for the run. Good looking horse who will no doubt is capable of better. Kalahari King has some good runs to his name, particularly the Doncaster win. Likes Cheltenham and goes on the going. However, ran a stinker first time up and Ferdy is yet to get his string firing. Petit Robin is interesting, Nicky Henderson is in form, goes well at Cheltenham. But how far below form would Master Minded need to run for him to win? Got stuffed by MM in the Champion, without the winner being anywhere near top form. I'm So Lucky could show more improvement, has place prospects, but should not be in the same league as MM. Mahogany Blaze is deteriorating in both ability and jumping. Oiseau De Nuit is not good enough. Kinkeel I hope just keeps out the way of the others.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 1:20 Cheltenham I think the bookies have this race all wrong. Zaynar 4/1??? After Ascot? Temperament is getting worse and worse. May be the cheek pieces will bring about a little improvement in the brain, but he's going to have to be at his very best to win here. Celestial Halo is fairly priced, but I am not convinced he's at his best at the moment, over fences or hurdles. Blinkered for the first time since the Champion. Be interesting to see just what tactics they use, with other prominent runners in there. Suspect this might be used as a confidence booster. Karabak ran ok at Ascot, but only ok. Outpaced there, as I suspect he will be here. Best form over further. Restless Harry might be out-speeded too, finished just behind Karabak at Ascot, but that was his best performance to date. If his progression continues will be amongst them today. Ran really well here in the Spa Hurdle before falling at the last. His price this morning would've been a lot shorter with more fashionable connections. Quartz De Thaix was impressive at Aintree on vastly different ground under a big handicap weight. Started his progression on good going, so probably ok today. Worry is the trainer hasn't hit form yet, hopefully Quartz' is still 100%. Banjaxed Girl is a top mare, getting a lot of weight from the “principles”. Very genuine front runner, a stiff 2m4½f should be enough of a test to see him still there at the last. With a fight between Zaynar and Banjaxed, know who I'd rather be on. Sentry Duty inconsistent and fragile, but has a brilliant record fresh and Henderson in good form. Just wonder whether he's quite good enough. Stand out best put up in a three runner race where questions must be asked about the other two. Any Given Day should be much better suited by this trip than the Greatwood. Stable in cracking form before the freeze. Improvement has come on softer ground. Carlito Brigante I can't see staying unless it is slowly run, with Banjaxed Girl in there it won't be. Shows a lot of speed and did not appear to get home in a truly run Triumph (2m). Kayf Aramis won't be fast enough. The others won't be good enough.

[Aidymac]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Ginge, did you see my post on Jumps Racing i put up about you doing cross trebles and a quad on your 4? Good chance all 4 will win mate.. Hope you did it :hope

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 I don't do multiple bets Aidymac, may be I should start doing so!:lol APGC Preview. 2:30 Cheltenham Dave's Dream has been put up a lot for winning a 2 mile handicap here, but had any amount in hand. Wind operation in the summer has worked the oracle. Runs well on good or good-soft. Unproven at 2m5f, but runs as if he'll stay and on this ground it should be within his compass. Stable in good form. Little Josh made all, jumping well in the Paddy Power. No fluke about that and can improve again, but might be taken on by both Matuhi and Duers here. So many take Little Josh on again, Mad Max travelled well for a long way. did not seem to get home under softer conditions. Has an extra furlong here, but the ground makes it more of a test of speed than the Paddy Power. At that time some of the Henderson clan needed their first run too; and is the biggest horse in training so might need a run to put him spot on. Carberry, who rode a great race on him in the Arkle, takes the ride. Definitely would not be the price he is if it was not for being the second string. Great Endeavour ran a reasonable race before weakening late. Bit free when fresh and should come on. Should have better to come. Sunninghillboy I'd fancy if AP were on board. Ran really well to be second to Great Endeavour in the Byrne at the Festival. That was however, his best round of jumping and usually spoils his chance with minor errors. Pigeon Island is an even worse lepper and how he won at the Festival is beyond me. Poquelin disappointed, bounced after such a good reappearance at Aintree. Proven at cheltenham. Not the biggest fan of his 5lb claimer. Goes on the ground, but more unexposed horses in here that could improve past him. Fingeronthepulse would stand a chance at his best, ran poorly and beginning to look temperamental. Robinson Collonges on the face of it isn't the best handicapped, but this novice has bags of improvement in him. Much better jumper than the fall at Wincanton makes it look. Good confidence booster since, although doesn't leave much margin for error and Cheltenham needs some jumping. Goes on the ground. Psycho appeared to be back to his best last time, won a small field conditions race last time. Should've been a Festival winner a couple of years ago, Carberry ballsed waiting tactics up in the County hurdle. A strongly run 2m5f might be too far. 10/1 this morning did look a fair price. Stable companion Northern Alliance ran poorly over an inadequate 2 miles last time. Needs at least this far, but looks very exposed. Noble Alan also looks exposed at 2 miles, but there is possibly more to come at this trip. Stayed on behind today's easy winner Woolcombe Folley. Stable up in Cumbria must have had snow / training problems. Calgary Bay hasn't produced the Doncaster winning performance since, albeit been raced over some strange trips by his eccentric trainer (2m 1f last time). Probably too exposed anyway. Gonebeyondrecall also looks exposed, nothing he's done of late suggests any improvement likely. Duers is steadily progressive, probably not enough to trouble the judge, but only probably. Available at 94/1 and I make him a 33/1 shot. A real trier and won last time out. Hasn't had a run for some time, but if fully fit should give you a run for your money. Stays further than this and acts well on good or good-soft. Matuhi I backed last time, found a very well handicapped too good at 2m 1f. Front runner at that distance. Unlikely to get his own way in front with Little Josh in the field. Showed a lot of speed but does stay at least 2m3f. Could run well if maintaining his progression.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 2:05 Huntingdon 50 points @ 5/2 (b365) Riverside Theatre 7 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Tartak

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 1:35 Huntingdon 23 points @ 6/1 (b365) Dream Esteem 19 points @ 8/1 (PP, VC) Call It On