Tennis - 18-24 October

[Atko]

In here :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Hajek - Kamke probably won't be played tomorrow, but I still have to take Hajek at about 2.5 at various bookies. The problem here is that Kamke is playing a final in a challenger in the USA and surely will not have enough time to come to Sweden and get ready in time (whether it is Monday or Tuesday) for a player that had practice here. Kamke is the better player on hard courts, but there surely is value on Hajek here.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October I'm going to go for a few tournament bets this week in the ATP tournaments in Stockholm and Moscow. I'll start with Stockholm first. Roger Federer is a deserved favourite at 1.77 but I feel that's very short, considering his best tennis is generally reserved for the bigger events and that he's had a full week on the other side of the world in Shanghai. He's in the top half of the draw and actually has a tough quarter-final opponent, in theory, in Stanislas Wawrinka, who has had a good second half of the year. The man that interests me on that side, however, is Ivan Ljubicic. He's got an outside chance of London but needs to do very well here. He's got a decent draw ahead of the semis, with only Tommy Robredo the main man there to stop him. After that, he's got as good a chance as any. Normally a very composed indoor player and is getting back to his peak game. At 23.00, I feel he worth a punt each-way. Along with Ljubicic, I'm going to back Robin Soderling in his home tournament in Sweden. He's seeded no.2, loves indoor conditions and should get to at least the final. Tomas Berdych appears to be the greatest threat in the bottom half of the draw but the Czech (a) has fitness issues and (b) hasn't played well for a while. Soderling will want to bounce back from that bad defeat to Federer and I can't think of a better place for him to do so. In Moscow, there is only one bet I like. Nikolay Davydenko is the favourite but considering his form, I couldn't even contemplate backing him for the title. I feel Mikhail Youzhny, who normally plays well in Russia and has a chance of London, is a more likely winner at 4.50. He's no.2 seed and in the bottom half of the draw, avoiding Davydenko and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Marcos Baghdatis seems his biggest threat on paper, but Youzhny beat the Cypriot recently and looks in better form, and, of course, has home advantage. I feel Youzhny is capable of making at least the final here and I'll be backing him each-way at decent odds. Selections: - Mikhail Youzhny to win Moscow @ 4.50EW (1/2 1,2) with Stan James (3/10) - Robin Soderling to win Stockholm @ 3.75EW (1/3 1,2) with Stan James (2/10) - Ivan Ljubicic to win Stockholm @ 23.00 (1/3 1,2) with Stan James (1/10) :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Monday's action only throws up two bets for me. The main bet concerns Jarkko Nieminen, who is 1.909 with a -2 handicap against Michael Berrer in Stockholm. The German won their only encounter last year in the final of a challenger in Salzburg but the Finn comes into this tournament in a much better shape than he was then. Both men are decent indoors but Nieminen, for me, has better recent form (got to the final of an indoor event in Bangkok) and has started to rediscover his fitness. Berrer started the year well on the indoor circuit but has faltered since then. Wins have been hard to come by (he did beat Tomas Berdych, a few weeks ago, which was more down the Czech's poor form) and aside from his serve, he's not got any punishing weapons. I fancy Nieminen in Scandinavia and I think a -2 handicap is surmountable. My second bet focuses on Moscow, and it's a double. Sergiy Stakhovsky takes on Michael Russell for the second time in a few weeks and I expect him to win again. He rode his luck last time they met - Russell had match points on his serve - but the Ukrainian is the better man indoors with a few titles to his name. He's been poor recently but generally raises his game in eastern Europe and I'd expect him to come through this in conditions he likes. The handicap, however, is a bit risky so I'm doubling him up with Russian Teimuraz Gabashvili, who takes on Potito Starace. The Italian leads the H2H 3-2 but all his wins have come on clay, while Gabashvili's have all come on hard. He's a bit of loose cannon, is Gabashvili, but on home soil and on a quick court which suits his power game, I'd expect him to get the job done here. Neither man has pulled up any trees recently, but past encounters suggest the Russian is the better player on a hard court. The double brings up odds of 2.12, so I'm ready to play that. Nothing else really stands out. You'd expect Stanislas Wawrinka and Daniel Gimeno-Traver to win their respective matches, but the odds aren't appealing, and Dmitry Tursunov vs Viktor Troicki is a tough one to call, IMO. Selections: - Jarkko Nieminen -2 games AH (vs Michael Berrer) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (7/10) - Sergiy Stakhovsky (vs Michael Russell) x Teimuraz Gabashvili (vs Michael Russell) @ 2.12 with Pinnacle (4/10) :hope

[Lennox]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Hi guys, long-time reader in the tennis threads but this is my posting debut. Some of you guys have won me (and cost me ;)) a lot of money in the past. Don't have any of my own tips to add for tomorrow's action but wanted to throw my weight (for what that's worth) behind Atko's Jarkko Nieminen tip. Since he started working with new coach Jan de Witt in the summer, Nieminen's said he's got a lot more confidence in his serve and indoors against an opponent like Michael Berrer should be a good chance for him to hit the gas. His return game's also been in decent form over the last few months and while he'll probably never be a top-15 player again, I think the Finn has more to offer. I'm definitely happy to take the -2 handicap with Pinnacle at 1.909. I'll be a bit more cautious with a 5/10 stake, but that doesn't mean I'm any less confident; I just like to play ATP 250s a little more warily.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Four for me at the start. K Bondarenko - P Kvitova Pick: K Bondarenko ML Stake: 6/10 Odds: 2.62 (Pinnacle) I am not really sure why Kvitova is the favourite here. She is ranked higher, but has no form whatsoever since Wimbledon (except for the few odd wins here and there). She was woeful against Georges in Linz, losing 6-2 6-1. Bondarenko has already beaten her on a hard court this year 7-5 6-3 and at these odds certainly represents a lot of value here. Stockholm - Bottom Half Winner Pick: Robin Soderling Stake: 10/10 Odds: 2.50 (Skybet) I think that we are getting excellent value on the home player here, so the pick has to be taken with full stakes! He always performs well at home and he will be playing on a surface that suits him very well. The bottom half is quite poor - the only player that can trouble Soderling is Berdych. And he certainly won't be 2.5 against Berdych, who is really struggling right now. ATP Moscow Pick: JW Tsonga (each way, 1/2 for first 2) Stake: 3/10 Odds: 7.00 (Skybet) I have to take this as it simply offers too much value for a player that is undervalued since he was injured lately. But he bounced back in a great fashion last week and lost only to Murray, who was the eventual winner. His half is not that greeat either - he may face two tough challenges - Tipsarevic and Davydenko. But those two are certainly beatable right now, so there is a lot of value in this bad. Low stakes required though. Lukas Lacko - Grigor Dimitrov Pick: Lukas Lacko Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.80 (Skybet) Other bookies are offering lower odds, so get onto this as soon as possible. I cannot understand the odds here to be honest - Lacko is a regular ATP player with some solid successes and wins in the last few years, while Dimitrov is "just" a talented young guy. He may be talented and in some form, but he will take a great step up in class here. And if he lost to Dancevic last week, chances are he will lose to Lacko also.

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Hi guys, 1 pick for WTA Luxembourg match tomorrow: VINCI TO DEFEAT ARVIDSSON @ 1.47 on betfair I saw Vinci beating Arvidsson last week in Linz - there was no chance in that match for Arvidsson. Vinci is playing the type of game which is the worst for Arvidsson - a lot of slices and a lot of variety to Vinci's game and she won all 4 matches between them easily.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October I made a small research on WTA Cremlin cup results 1st round in past couple of years, and it is very interesting. If we say that an upset is when the dog with odds (at Pinny) equal or above 2.5 wins, and if we put one unit on every event where any of the opponents have odds 2.5 or higher, we get the following table for Cremlin cup WTA round 1: Year 2009: 5 upsets with sum of odds = 18.58 , 13 events with odds >= 2,5 -profit 5.58 (GAIN) Year 2008: 2 upsets with sum of odds = 10,40 , 4 events with odds >= 2,5 - profit 6,40 (GAIN) Year 2007: 3 upsets with sum of odds 11.22 , 9 events with odds >= 2.5 - profit 2,22 (GAIN) Year 2006: 3 upsets with sum of odds 8.53 , 11 events with odds >= 2.5 - profit -2.47 (LOSS) Of course, if we were able to identify matches falling into "2.5 odds" category where there will be no upset, we would gain additional advantage. So I decided to try this schema this year and I put one (small) unit on the dog in the following matches at Pinny Vesnina vs Pennetta - Vesnina - odds 3,040 Bondarenko K. vs Kvitova - Bondarenko - odds 2,560 Gavrilova vs Bondarenko A. - Gavrilova - odds 5,920 Cibulkova vs Pavlyushenkova - Cibulkova - odds 3,340 Dulgheru vs Kirilenko - Dulgheru - odds 3,500 Chakvetadze vs Li Na - Chakvetadze - odds 3,980 Safarova vs Kleybanova - Safarova - odds 3,240 Govortsova vs Petkovic - Govortsova - odds 2,820 (these odds are dropping rapidly) There are still missing lines for 4 matches (with qualifiers) - I shall add them later Fingers crossed :hope

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Poor K.Bondarenko :cry, she had 5 matchpoints in the 2nd set tie-break (at 6-2 and at 7-6), still she managed to lose the 2nd set. I think Kvitova wins now. Edit: The biggest of the two chokers - Kvitova - lost 36 76 16. Unbelievable that Kvitova could have defeated Kanepi two weeks ago.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Well and to think that she was serving for the set twice before that. Horrible :@ Edit: Beautiful is the word :D Kvitova just had a lucky streak it seems.

[Fizruhas]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Teymuras Gabashvilli (-3) - Potito Starace 1.75@triobet! Both guys are in bad shape right now, h2h is 1-1 with this years meeting ended 7:6 7:5 won by Gaba. It's not much to say about this one, despite italian ranked higher i'm picking up the home boy Gaba, who surely will try do do best to snatch the victory at home :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October One really has to wonder how a player that struggles in the Futures tournaments beats a top50 player...:lol:lol

[Fizruhas]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October An early break for Gaba !!! the russian is up 2:0! :hope

[Lennox]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

Lukas Lacko - Grigor Dimitrov Pick: Lukas Lacko Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.80 (Skybet) Other bookies are offering lower odds, so get onto this as soon as possible. I cannot understand the odds here to be honest - Lacko is a regular ATP player with some solid successes and wins in the last few years, while Dimitrov is "just" a talented young guy. He may be talented and in some form, but he will take a great step up in class here. And if he lost to Dancevic last week, chances are he will lose to Lacko also.

I've opposed you on this one, mate. I like this kid Dimitrov a lot and have taken him at 2.20. Expecting big things from him and have been looking for a price on him winning a Slam in the next 5 years. The Dancevic loss was tight, in 2 breakers, and Dimitrov's scooped a couple of titles at this level recently. Lacko is more experienced, though, and your reasoning is fair enough. Should be a close match. Good luck with the rest of your tips! :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Looking good for you, Lennox. He seems really inspired this kid, while Lacko always turns it up only at crucial points and it goes missing sometimes obviously.

[b10111]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

An early break for Gaba !!! the russian is up 2:0! :hope

I know we not allowed to discuss this topic on this forum but how can you reasonably tell if a player has thrown away a match, I mean how can 2 russian players in a home tournament lose to players they should be able to beat in the first round in such meek circumstances? Pavyluchen was bageled in her last set of a home competition,I mean really, where is the pride:loon Gaba about to lose the 3rd set 6-1........wow!

[slider24]

I know we not allowed to discuss this topic on this forum but how can you reasonably tell if a player has thrown away a match, I mean how can 2 russian players in a home tournament lose to players they should be able to beat in the first round in such meek circumstances? Pavyluchen was bageled in her last set of a home competition,I mean really, where is the pride:loon Gaba about to lose the 3rd set 6-1........wow!

I was on Starace today and it was all about him after the first set. Gaba saved about a million break points it seemed in the second set so he was fighting hard. He's just been in poor form recently, losing to some unknown Chinese player last week. The courts in Moscow are supposedly playing slow as well, which would've suited Starace more as the only matches he's won between them have been on clay.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Mixed bag for me, but still a little profit since Bondarenko won at nice odds.:tongue2

[b10111]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

I've opposed you on this one, mate. I like this kid Dimitrov a lot and have taken him at 2.20. Expecting big things from him and have been looking for a price on him winning a Slam in the next 5 years. The Dancevic loss was tight, in 2 breakers, and Dimitrov's scooped a couple of titles at this level recently. Lacko is more experienced, though, and your reasoning is fair enough. Should be a close match. Good luck with the rest of your tips! :ok

great call!Nice to see more challenger picks!

[Lennox]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Happy with that. Only pounced at the last second, would have given it a proper write-up if I'd decided earlier, so apologies for that. Don't get involved in Challengers too often. They can be a minefield and you never know what a player's motivations are. Some are trying things out, while others are obliging invites from tournament director friends. Young, hungry guys like Dimitrov, who are genuinely working their way through the rankings, are always worth looking out for, though. I'd definitely suggest keeping an eye on him over the next year, the comparisons with Federer aren't going away.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Speaking of challengers, very tempted with Julian Reister tomorrow against Stephane Robert at 5/6. If it was on clay it would be a no brainer but Reister seems to be pretty average on the hard courts unfortunately.

[b10111]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

Happy with that. Only pounced at the last second, would have given it a proper write-up if I'd decided earlier, so apologies for that. Don't get involved in Challengers too often. They can be a minefield and you never know what a player's motivations are. Some are trying things out, while others are obliging invites from tournament director friends. Young, hungry guys like Dimitrov, who are genuinely working their way through the rankings, are always worth looking out for, though. I'd definitely suggest keeping an eye on him over the next year, the comparisons with Federer aren't going away.

:\well the WTA and ATP tour are a money pit aswell at the moment.I reckon you can make more profit by going for underdogs at the moment whereby the favourite has odds of 1.4 and higher:puke

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Going with flat stakes tomorrow, if you would like to have a more accurate stake plan, then I would give Chardy 8/10, Hanescu and Brands 6/10. Good luck. J Chardy - M Kukushkin Pick: J Chardy ML Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.54 (Pinnacle) Going with form again with this one, as the Frenchman is playing very good tennis at the moment - even Murray had some problems against him last week. Kukushkin is a player that usually does the job against average opponents but struggles when he has to raise his game. His only notable win this year is against tired and injured Wawrinka. Full stakes for me. V Hanescu - R Stepanek Pick: 1 (+3 games) Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.97 (Pinnacle) This is purely a bet against Stepanek, who has shown nothing lately. Losing to an amateur player certainly did not help him and he had no success in doubles either. Hanescu is not in good form or anything, but at least he is not coming from some horrible losses and below average performances. I reckon he can even win this, but I will take the handicap, as it offers much more safety. P Cuevas - D Brands Pick: D Brands ML Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.77 (Pinnacle) The reason for this bet is obvious I think. Cuevas is playing well only on clay courts - his serve is not very good at all. He is also lacking power in his groundstrokes. On the other hand, Brands has a great weapon in his serve - we have already seen that against De Bakker or Marchenko. He should also be very motivated, as this is his chance for some nice ranking points. Cuevas, on the other hand, is probably already thinking about next season.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

- Jarkko Nieminen -2 games AH (vs Michael Berrer) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (7/10) WIN - Sergiy Stakhovsky (vs Michael Russell) x Teimuraz Gabashvili (vs Michael Russell) @ 2.12 with Pinnacle (4/10) LOSS

+2.36pts for the day. Nieminen got going after a shaky start and the better player won. Stakhovsky flirted with disaster but somehow came through - Russell served for the match. Gabashvili...well, he's not playing well. Some good calls lads, let's keep it up :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October There is only one bet that stands out tomorrow for me. There are a lot of low-ranked players kicking about tomorrow, especially in Moscow, and I want to see if guys like Jeremy Chardy and Alexandr Dolgopolov are taking this event seriously before taking them. Chardy, in particular, has a tough one against Mikhail Kukushkin. Anyway, on to the bet. I'm going to take Daniel Brands on the -1.5 game handicap to beat Pablo Cuevas tomorrow in Moscow. I know a lot of people don't rate Brands but he does the basics and has a hammer of a serve and a forehand. He's not a bad indoor player with those weapons, he can take out a man who was playing on clay a week ago in Buenos Aires. Cuevas does his best work on the red brick and I can't see him being accustomed to playing on this surface. Brands is improving and got to the quarter-finals of Bangkok recently. I feel he's in a better shape to play in these conditions considering he returned to Europe last week, while Cuevas was still out in South America. Cuevas' year has been poor in any case, and I question his motivation here. The market has moved heavily in the last couple of days towards Brands and I'm happy to back him. I had Victor Hanescu +3 games in mind too, but I think that's a risky bet considering he's not played in a while and can be untrustable in 250 events in Europe. I think this week could be one for laying low until later on in the tournaments. Selection: - Daniel Brands -1.5 games AH (vs Pablo Cuevas) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (4/10) :hope

[timrosen35]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October completely agree...i think brainless brands is 1 of the best bets of the day. im also having a little go at a couple of others. dushevina -2.5 against makarova. probably 5/10. 1.87 @ sportingbet dushevina is not only a better player than makarova, but also won their recent hardcourt encounter. she has also collected a few good wins lately such as ivanovic (And we've seen her amazing for lately) and even a win against vinci the other day is reasonable form as vinci has been playing well

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

Monday's action only throws up two bets for me. The main bet concerns Jarkko Nieminen, who is 1.909 with a -2 handicap against Michael Berrer in Stockholm. The German won their only encounter last year in the final of a challenger in Salzburg but the Finn comes into this tournament in a much better shape than he was then. Both men are decent indoors but Nieminen, for me, has better recent form (got to the final of an indoor event in Bangkok) and has started to rediscover his fitness. Berrer started the year well on the indoor circuit but has faltered since then. Wins have been hard to come by (he did beat Tomas Berdych, a few weeks ago, which was more down the Czech's poor form) and aside from his serve, he's not got any punishing weapons. I fancy Nieminen in Scandinavia and I think a -2 handicap is surmountable. My second bet focuses on Moscow, and it's a double. Sergiy Stakhovsky takes on Michael Russell for the second time in a few weeks and I expect him to win again. He rode his luck last time they met - Russell had match points on his serve - but the Ukrainian is the better man indoors with a few titles to his name. He's been poor recently but generally raises his game in eastern Europe and I'd expect him to come through this in conditions he likes. The handicap, however, is a bit risky so I'm doubling him up with Russian Teimuraz Gabashvili, who takes on Potito Starace. The Italian leads the H2H 3-2 but all his wins have come on clay, while Gabashvili's have all come on hard. He's a bit of loose cannon, is Gabashvili, but on home soil and on a quick court which suits his power game, I'd expect him to get the job done here. Neither man has pulled up any trees recently, but past encounters suggest the Russian is the better player on a hard court. The double brings up odds of 2.12, so I'm ready to play that. Nothing else really stands out. You'd expect Stanislas Wawrinka and Daniel Gimeno-Traver to win their respective matches, but the odds aren't appealing, and Dmitry Tursunov vs Viktor Troicki is a tough one to call, IMO. Selections: - Jarkko Nieminen -2 games AH (vs Michael Berrer) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (7/10) - Sergiy Stakhovsky (vs Michael Russell) x Teimuraz Gabashvili (vs Michael Russell) @ 2.12 with Pinnacle (4/10) :hope

Terrific shout on Nieminen atko knew this was coming thru, backed you with heavy stakes odds were mispriced nice one mate:ok

[play2win]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Am really fancing Brandts to win as well. He is a much better player on hard courts. But looks like everyone is on the bet, so hope we dont jinx it ;) Even 2.8 for 2-0 looks good. Maybe it has more value than straight up. Coz if the first set is won convincingly by Brandts, as i think might happen, the odds might go down to 1.5ish. Anyways.... just thought i'd put my weight behind. Good luck all.

[b10111]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

Going with flat stakes tomorrow, if you would like to have a more accurate stake plan, then I would give Chardy 8/10, Hanescu and Brands 6/10. Good luck. J Chardy - M Kukushkin Pick: J Chardy ML Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.54 (Pinnacle) Going with form again with this one, as the Frenchman is playing very good tennis at the moment - even Murray had some problems against him last week. Kukushkin is a player that usually does the job against average opponents but struggles when he has to raise his game. His only notable win this year is against tired and injured Wawrinka. Full stakes for me. V Hanescu - R Stepanek Pick: 1 (+3 games) Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.97 (Pinnacle) This is purely a bet against Stepanek, who has shown nothing lately. Losing to an amateur player certainly did not help him and he had no success in doubles either. Hanescu is not in good form or anything, but at least he is not coming from some horrible losses and below average performances. I reckon he can even win this, but I will take the handicap, as it offers much more safety. P Cuevas - D Brands Pick: D Brands ML Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.77 (Pinnacle) The reason for this bet is obvious I think. Cuevas is playing well only on clay courts - his serve is not very good at all. He is also lacking power in his groundstrokes. On the other hand, Brands has a great weapon in his serve - we have already seen that against De Bakker or Marchenko. He should also be very motivated, as this is his chance for some nice ranking points. Cuevas, on the other hand, is probably already thinking about next season.

Agree with all your bets except Cuevas, he may be a clay courter but by no means is he a specialist.I watched him at the US open and saw a lot of good things.The one quality he has that I like when I bet on players is he is not a quiter and with Brands 2nd round loss in a challenger last week after I had backed him, im certainly going fullstakes on the Uruguayan. I may take hanescu but its just a bet against Stephanek, Anyone who loses against a Chinese part timer does not deserve to be backed with any sort of currency and I suppose the fact that his opponent is Hanescu doesn’t make it any better, but I guess he offers more value.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Update to my WTA Cremlin round 1 dogs schema Qualifier lines are available, so I add three matches compliant with "odds 2.5" rule, in one of which I pass: Diyas vs Dulko - Dyias - odds 4.180 Koryttseva vs Zakopalova - Koryttseva - odds 3.280 I pass on Errani vs Savchuk (odds on Savchuk 4.64) because I believe Errani will win this match