Tennis - 18-24 October

[ShanAce]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October why is Azarenka a dog against Kleybanova? Am I missing something here?

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Well, she played poorly in the first match, may still have some injury concerns and she has already booked a place in the WTA Finals. You have to figure out where the value is by yourself though - if she has motivation and will, she should be the favorite. However, this match is something I cannot read into at all due to the facts that I have stated.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Two small bets for me tomorrow - not a huge amount is standing out on quarter-finals day. The main bet is a double. I reckon Radek Stepanek will have enough to take out Pablo Cuevas in Moscow. Stepanek is having a good week, he's yet to lose his serve and has taken out two dangerous opponents at 250 level in Victor Hanescu and Mikhail Kukushkin. Cuevas has also had a fine week, beating out-of-form Nikolay Davydenko in the last round, but I reckon this'll be a really tough one for him. Stepanek won't give him time in rallies. The Czech loves to come to the net and kill the point early and Cuevas won't like that. The Uruguayan - generally a clay courter - is good in rallies as he can generate his top spin shots and force the play. Stepanek bulldozed him on clay recently 6-0 6-2 when he wasn't fit. Back on a surface he likes (and Cuevas normally doesn't), I can see him taking this. I have enough respect for Cuevas' form, so I'm going to avoid the handicap and double him up with Ivan Ljubicic, who plays his fellow Croat Ivan Dodig in Stockholm. Ljubicic beat Dodig in Umag a few months back on the clay. Dodig took a set and played very well but Ljubicic had a bit too much experience for him, even though he was carrying his rib injury at the time. He's now playing for a tilt at the end-of-year finals and he's on a surface he loves. He's very difficult to break on serve and Dodig isn't consistent enough, for me, to keep with him in that department. Handicap was also tempting but Dodig took a set last time, so I won't risk it. Double comes in at 2.05. My second bet is a much smaller morsel. I just have a wee feeling Igor Kunitsyn is going to take out Denis Istomin tomorrow in Moscow. Kunitsyn is normally a journeyman tennis player but there's something about Moscow for him. He won the title here in 2008 and generally gives a good account of himself. He lost in three tight sets in his only meeting with the Uzbek two years ago and has had a poorer year than Istomin, but he's playing good tennis here. He beat Igor Andreev and Andrey Golubev to get this far and he'll be feeling good right now. Istomin's chanced his luck, for me, this week. Illya Marchenko took him to three in Round 1 and Pau-Henri Mathieu took a set off him too today. He's a talented boy - big serve, huge forehand - but he goes completely missing at times, like last week against Daniel Gimeno-Traver. Kunitsyn will battle to the end on home soil and I have a wee feeling he might nick this one. 1.971 seems good enough for me, so I'll take that with a pea-sized stake. Selections: - Radek Stepanek (vs Pablo Cuevas) x Ivan Ljubicic (vs Ivan Dodig) @ 2.05 with Unibet (4/10) - Igor Kunitsyn (vs Denis Istomin) @ 1.971 with Pinnacle (2/10) :hope

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

http://www.menstennisforums.com/index.php

Thank you.

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October @Atko,great job last days.Congratulations!I really admire how much you know tennis and soccer.Today I can't agree with your tip on Kunitsyn. Istomin-Kunitsyn 1(1.80) 9/10stake Istomin is better player,he played with lot of energy,have good serve.Kunitsyn beat Golubev but in my criteriums Golubev is not excellent player.I don't like his style od playing.I believe that Istomin will win this.Sorry for my English.

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Good luck to all.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

@Atko,great job last days.Congratulations!I really admire how much you know tennis and soccer.Today I can't agree with your tip on Kunitsyn. Istomin-Kunitsyn 1(1.80) 9/10stake Istomin is better player,he played with lot of energy,have good serve.Kunitsyn beat Golubev but in my criteriums Golubev is not excellent player.I don't like his style od playing.I believe that Istomin will win this.Sorry for my English.

Thanks Deksii :ok Don't worry about your English, it's fine. As for Istomin-Kunitsyn, I've gone for very small stakes as you'll see, it's just a wee hunch. If Istomin plays to his best, he'll win. In saying that, however, he's not looked brilliant nor consistent recently and Kunitsyn has history in this tournament, he morphs into a different player here. At least one of us will be a winner ;)

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October @Atko,yes,one of us will be a winner. Cuevas,good start,great.I hope he will continiues with this level of playing.

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Whoop cuevas is playing out his skin! Wow I've never had so many underdogs win in a few days than recently. Does this normally happen towards the end of year? I've never thought about this but it may be true players trying to play through injuries or bad form for end of year pay-day or ranking points... Zeballos seems to be amazing odds aswell nearly 4/1 so I shall have few quid on him. Also azarenka is like 1.7 now and I got her at 2.4 so god knows what's happening there! Strange tennis occurrences .... Fingers crossed :)

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Whoop goo azarenka!! Gees easy win too for her. Think il do benesova v keothavong now as she's only slight favourite and most English women in tennis are pants when it gets to the crunch. Surprised she won last round but think she will come unstuck now... We will see

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

Istomin-Kunitsyn 1(1.80) 9/10stake Istomin is better player,he played with lot of energy,have good serve.Kunitsyn beat Golubev but in my criteriums Golubev is not excellent player.I don't like his style od playing.I believe that Istomin will win this.Sorry for my English.

Bet won.I also bet on Cuevas in the morning but didn't post here.Good tennis day for me.Now let's go on the other sports.

[BadBoy]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Roger Federer v Stanislas Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka to win @ 5.00 Victor Chandler Trusting roger Federer in a small tournament is a no no for me. He plays here this year cos he said he would play last year but pull out. So he plays, won a match, now maybe not so interested. Wawrinka maybe good guy for him to lose. Wawrinka good player, ok form, will like chance to beat Federer. Groundstrokes very good can battle Federer, and maybe make him make errors. I think this is a tough game, so will bet the big price.

[BadBoy]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Ana Ivanovic v Julia Goerges: Julia Goerges to win @ 3.75 Ladbrokes This is a re match from last week. That time, And Ivanovic won but it was a very close game in set 1 with Julia Goerges having a set point. Again I think a close game, this time Goerges perhaps can get through. She hits very hard, I saw for the first time a couple of months ago and she has great shots. Indoors really should suit her gamestyle and she has won well so far this week. Ivanovic won tournament last week and so far this week has been untested. In doubles yesterday she was very poor but maybe wasn't trying so hard. This should be a good match and I will be betting on Julia Goerges to win.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

- Radek Stepanek (vs Pablo Cuevas) x Ivan Ljubicic (vs Ivan Dodig) @ 2.05 with Unibet (4/10) LOSS - Igor Kunitsyn (vs Denis Istomin) @ 1.971 with Pinnacle (2/10) LOSS

-6pts for today. Not disappointed about Kunitsyn. It was a small bet on a hunch. Well done to Deksii on Istomin :ok Disappointed that Stepanek cost me the double, what a week Cuevas is having!

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Thanks Atko.

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Istomin and Troicki are players on fire,players to bet on them in next period.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Have to disagree with BadBoy. Btw, the doubles went in quite comfortably :ok. R Federer - S Wawrinka Pick: Under 21 games Stake: 4/10 Odds: 1.87 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Posted: Today, 17:09 Had my doubts about this one, but decided to pick it for small stakes in the end. Federer is motivated enough and we all know what he can do in that state. He is covering the unders pretty cleanly lately and I think he will do so here again. Moreover, Wawrinka has not been very convincing in the last match - his serve was quite vulnerable. Small stakes, but well worth trying.

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October I will try to hit once again. Flipkens-Vinci 1(2.05) 8/10 Belgium girl is in good form.She have great service.First two matches won in streight sets.Vinci form is not on this level,they won last match very hard.Flipkens here.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Taking the day off tomorrow. Like to throw in a couple of rest days here and there and tomorrow seems like a good day to do so. Cracking shout by Bad Boy on Georges, would be an epic double if Wawrinka holds on :ok

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Bet lost on Flipkens.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October 4 for me, with 3 picks on other sports: M Kirilenko - V Dushevina Pick: 1 (-3 games) Stake: 10/10 (flat stake) Odds: 1.80 Bookmaker: Pinnacle I just love this one and I do not understand the bookies. I may well be wrong, but I have to look at this one realistically. H2H is good for Dushevina, but the last match was won by Kirilenko. And now look at recent form - Kirilenko lost to players like Zvonareva or Kuznetsova, while Dushevina lost to players like Vinci or Zakopalova. And she really should have beaten Chakvetadze more comfortably. Meanwhile, Kirilenko lost just 7 games here and should take the run one step further. Baghdatis - D Istomin Pick: Baghdatis Stake: 10/10 (flat stake) Odds: 1.66 Bookmaker: Pinnacle These odds are just about what I am going to take and I would definitely not go below 1.6. However, Baghdatis has not been broken in Moscow yet and had two easy matches - Dolgopolov made him fight hard, but he was able to step up. Istomin has already survived two scares here and I thought that he won't even be at this stage. Nevertheless, I like the Cypriot to step up once again with the final on the line. His opponent is certainly beatable, so let's just hope it won't be a thriller. R Federer - Ljubicic Pick: 2 (+5 games) Stake: 10/10 (flat stake) Odds: 1.95 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Five games seems to be too much here. Just look at their past matches and you will see that Federer has not covered this line very often and while Ljubicic still has the strong serve here, Federer seems to be troubled by something here - I had the feeling that he was not 100% fit in the match against Wawrinka. Anyway, although Federer will probably win this, the bottom line is that 5 games handicap is huge if we consider how Ljubicic is serving here. Full stakes. J. Brunstrom/J. Nieminen - W. Moodie/D. Norman Pick: J. Brunstrom/J. Nieminen Stake: 4/10 Odds: 2.69 Bookmaker: BWin Constantly undervalued, so this is a pure value bet. Moodie/Norman are the favorites here and it is clear why, but they have struggled against worse pairs and they may have some significant problems here again. The Scandinavian pair has yet to lose a match (!) and Nieminen is basically on fire right now, so I like their chances. Fair odds would be about 2.20, so I am more than happy with 2.69. Small stakes are recommended though.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Goerges to beat Kerber @ 4/6 (S James:5pts) Cant be bothered with handicaps here, just gonna take Goerges outright for the win.She is on fire right now and I think she is a level above Kerber when she brings her best game. Clearly loves the indoor surface aswell....she crushed Ivanovic today, granted Ana was tired after alot of tennis in recent weeks but Goerges was still superb, big serving, huge forehand, good returning. She does sometimes struggle with consistency but feel she can get past Kerber here. Kerber's got some nice groundies, can hang in rallies but there's a difference in serve between these two...hopefull it makes the difference tomorrow. gl!

[BadBoy]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Viktor Troicki v Pablo Cuevas: Pablo Cuevas to win @ 3.49 Pinnacle I don't know much about Pablo Cuevas but I just looking at his results. He appears to have done well in challenger tournaments on clay the past couple of months, then come indoors to this tournament and is doing well again. He's won this week at prices of 2.502, 4.867 and 3.446 (taken from tennisinsight) and could do so again I think. Victor Troicki is a good player, can do well indoors, but doesn't appear to me to be a champion deserving of these short odds. He got impressive win over Tsonga this week, but the wins Cuevas has produced have to be considered more impressive.

[BadBoy]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Roberta Vinci v Anne Keothavong: Anne Keothavong to win @ 3.00 Stan James Anne Keothavong is the type of player who can be brilliant one week, and awful most other weeks. It seems like this could be a brilliant week, with wins at prices of 3.00, 4.035 and 2.279 so far. She has good game for indoor tennis, and very different style to Vinci. Roberta Vinci has been in good form lately, serving well in particular and using slice backhand to good effect indoors. Keothavong has the type of attacking game that can cause problems, and I think gives her a great chance to win this match.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Almost perfect day for me, needed Ljubicic to hold his serve once more for a full house. Anyway, a profit of 21.36 units is great anyway :D

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October J. Brunström/J. Nieminen - E. Butorac/J. J. Rojer Pick: J. Brunström/J. Nieminen Stake: 7/10 Odds: 1.95 Bookmaker: BWin Well, Bwin has opened the odds as one of the first and I have to bite on this one. I see no reason why they should be the underdogs here - the pair has yet to lose a match this season, Nieminen is on fire, and the Swedish crowd will be behind them in this one. If they could deal with Moodie/Norman, they can deal with these two. They really seem to click together and I will trust them once again here. Anything over 1.8 seems like a good bet, but I will nevertheless limit the stakes a little bit. Troicki - Baghdatis Pick: Troicki ML Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.96 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Troicki has opened as the favourite at most bookies, but these odds suggest it is a 50/50 matchup, which it is not. I may well be wrong and maybe you will be able to get better odds on Troicki tomorrow. If you think so, then obviously wait. But I think that this price should be taken now, since I think it will only go down. I think that Troicki is playing the best tennis of his career right now. He beat Cuevas very easily today and saved a lot of energy for the final. Now let's look at Baghdatis. He has recorded some nice wins this year, but has looked shaky against Istomin - the guy was serving for the match against him (something I could not see happening at all)! The Cypriot also wasn't happy with some rulings and that may affect his mentality, as the crowd will certainly support the Serb here. All in all, I see this as a 60/40 matchup and these odds therefore represent value for me, regardless of the final result. J Goerges - R Vinci Pick: 2 (+3.5 games) Stake: 6/10 Odds: 2.12 Bookmaker: Pinnacle I do not understand why Goerges is such a huge favourite here. I see this as a match that can be quite tight, as both players are in good form. Goerges has the bigger serve of these two, but Vinci is the player that has more variety. The match against Keothavong actually made me like this - Vinci can defend very well and I think that Goerges may struggle to break her down. The handicap of 3.5 games certainly seems to be too much, although I will not go for full stakes here. Also having small plays on Matosevic vs. Young and Lu against Anderson.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October I'm going for one bet in today's set of finals. I think it's hard to see past Roger Federer today against Florian Mayer in Stockholm. Mayer has a had a dream week, beating Robin Soderling and then Jarkko Nieminen in such battling fashion, but Federer should be far too strong for him. Mayer, for starters, is going to be knackered. His match with Nieminen was an epic and that will have taken something out of him physically and mentally. I said last week, when taking Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to beat him after Mayer played two games in two days in Shanghai, that his fitness is not the best, and in the second half of that match, he faded badly. Federer leads the H2H 2-0 and both wins, on hard, have been convincing. He breezed past Ivan Ljubicic once he got the lead and now that he's in the final, I expect him to crank it up. He's evidently the better player: fitter, fluid movement, lovely array of shots. I think the -5 game handicap in Asia at 2.13 is well worth a play here. I think Federer will win this pretty cosily. I also think Viktor Troicki might just pip Marcos Baghdatis, although I'd want odds above 2.00. Troicki has a lot to play for ahead of the Davis Cup and is probably fresher than Baghdatis. The Cypriot, however, is the more able player when 100% fit - problem is, he probably won't be in a great physical state after that battle with Denis Istomin. Selection: - Roger Federer -5 games AH (vs Florian Mayer) @ 2.13 with Pinnacle (5/10) :hope

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October

Goerges to beat Kerber @ 4/6 (S James:5pts) Cant be bothered with handicaps here, just gonna take Goerges outright for the win.She is on fire right now and I think she is a level above Kerber when she brings her best game. Clearly loves the indoor surface aswell....she crushed Ivanovic today, granted Ana was tired after alot of tennis in recent weeks but Goerges was still superb, big serving, huge forehand, good returning. She does sometimes struggle with consistency but feel she can get past Kerber here. Kerber's got some nice groundies, can hang in rallies but there's a difference in serve between these two...hopefull it makes the difference tomorrow. gl!

WIN Indoor hard tournament in Vienna in the next week. Gulbis has drawn old man Thomas Muster in round one, the old man has been granted a wild card. Looking at Muster's results since coming back on the scene a few months ago it doesnt read too well..Gulbis has dropped a bit recently no doubt about it but he still should take care of Muster pretty easily....handicap is set at -6 AH which seems fair enough. Gulbis -6 AH vs Muster @ 1.826 (Pinny:3pts)

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Certainly does, as Bwin for example has a bet whether Muster will win Over 4,5 games or Under :loon Unless Gulbis goes crazy on his shots (like he often does), there is no way he should even win more than two honestly.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 October Troicki :clap Vinci :clap Matosevic :clap Lu :clap Nieminen/Brunstrom :wall What a day :nana:nana