Euro 2012 > 12th October

[ultravires]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October I am going to give my thoughts on the Italy match tonight. A little late, but I have been busy and not thought about it until recently. The confirmed line-up for Italy tonight is: Viviano, Zambrotta, Bonucci, Chiellini, Criscito, Mauri, Pirlo, Palombo, Marchisio, Cassano, Pazzini (4-4-2) First of all playing those wingers is insane and by far the biggest issue of the team. Mauri is decent sure, but not what you would want going forward out there. Marchisio hates it out on the wing but gets played there quite a lot. Neither are 'wingers' and they probably wont play like that. I'd guess they'll be more LM/RM and be very aware of their defensive duties - getting forward only when necessary. Creatively they wont pose much threat. D game looks O.K. Only real issue is if Krasic is on form and goes for Criscito it could be a rough night. CB's are starting to form a partnership which is promising. Not a really threatening team going forward though. Cass/Pazz know each other inside out, but in terms of support, Pirlo is the only provider in the midfield. I have read that Serbia are reported to be playing a 4-3-3. The narrow 3 in midfield will give them a chance to swamp Pirlo and Palombo which will go a long way to stopping this Italy side. The 'wingers' are not threatening and the Serbian full-backs would be happy to take them one on one. I would guess from that they will mount fast counter-attacks trying to catch Italy on the break. I am not sure about this match going over 2.5 to be honest. I can see it being tight. The Italy team is pretty conservative considering they are at home. I just don't think there will be the service tonight.I also think both will settle for a draw. Therefore I am taking: Serbia +0.5 - 2.05 - Bet365 - 5 points 1-1 - 11/2 - Bet365 - 1 point GL.

[srki]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

The confirmed line-up for Italy tonight is: Viviano, Zambrotta, Bonucci, Chiellini, Criscito, Mauri, Pirlo, Palombo, Marchisio, Cassano, Pazzini (4-4-2) First of all playing those wingers is insane and by far the biggest issue of the team. Mauri is decent sure, but not what you would want going forward out there.

I must disagree with you about Mauri.If Prandelli watched our game against Estonia, then he surely sees that left side of our team with invisible Lomic and out of form Jovanovic is the weakest part.I'm sure he will use this fact in tonight clash, so expecting Mauri to be very offensive.Course, if Tosic start instead Jovanovic then it is different story.

Marchisio hates it out on the wing but gets played there quite a lot. Neither are 'wingers' and they probably wont play like that. I'd guess they'll be more LM/RM and be very aware of their defensive duties - getting forward only when necessary. Creatively they wont pose much threat.

I agree about our right side.With Krasic in superb form and offensive minded Ivanovic as RB, I expect that most of our attacks will go through right side and that Prandelli know this.

Not a really threatening team going forward though. Cass/Pazz know each other inside out, but in terms of support, Pirlo is the only provider in the midfield. I have read that Serbia are reported to be playing a 4-3-3. The narrow 3 in midfield will give them a chance to swamp Pirlo and Palombo which will go a long way to stopping this Italy side. The 'wingers' are not threatening and the Serbian full-backs would be happy to take them one on one.

First of all, according to what we see on our last training, we will play in formation 4-2-3-1 with Stankovic and Kuzmanovic as DM and Ninkovic (Kacar?) as CM (playmaker).Personally I'm expecting that in beginning Stankovic and Kuzmanovic press on Pirlo and Palombo which will result in Pirlo get moved close to own goal.If this happens then Cassano and Pazzini must go closer to midfield and they will be followed by our CB.Now, IF this happened, then it's a matter of time when will Pirlo send one of his fabulous "ball with eyes" in empty space and knowing that Cassano and Pazzini are both faster than our CB... voila... goal for Italy.

I would guess from that they will mount fast counter-attacks trying to catch Italy on the break. I am not sure about this match going over 2.5 to be honest. I can see it being tight. The Italy team is pretty conservative considering they are at home. I just don't think there will be the service tonight.I also think both will settle for a draw.

We can mount fast counter-attack, yes, but question is when Krasic or Jovanovic run in counter-attack, who will wait for ball in front of Italy goal? Zigic is not near fast as two of them, and as time goes he will be more and more tired.Again, it's possible if Lazovic or Mrdja start instead of Zigic.We should have three aims in this match: 1.Control midfield 2.Disable Pirlo in passing balls 3.Distribute as many as we can good crosses for Zigic. I don't think that we (especially without Vidic) are capable to do that.As for under/over it's really hard to predict but an early goal can destroy all analysis.Petrovic already said that if we took one point it is big achievement, which is totaly unintelligible for me 'cause with one point we have only mathematical chance to go through.

[Jase82]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

Ive gone for around 4 or 5 bets tonight but one i feel has quitre a good chance of happening with decent odds is an accumulator of over 2.5 goals on these games : San Marino vs Moldova France vs Luxembourg Kazakhstan vs Germany Holland vs Sweden Faroe Islands vs Northern Island This is 12/1 on the betfair site! The only game i feel is potentially going to have unders is the Holland game or maybe the NI match

GL with your bets, but we do need more reasoning than this :ok

[iluvtennis]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

In two past meetings with San Marino' date=' Moldova only won 1-0 each time.[/quote'] Hi PG yid where did you find that out?. I think it may be incorrect I think today is the first ever meeting between San Marino and Moldova.

[aliando]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October swiss-wales I'm very wary against betting on the swiss for 2 reasons: - much of the current crop of welsh lads played for brian flynn at u21 level and have a lot of respect for him. the job is vacant at present and flynn is on the shortlist - this is his big chance to prove himself and after the defeat to bulgaria, this may be his last opportunity to sell himself. - the swiss havent won at home in 13 months. in fact they have won just twice in their last 12 outings, bizarrely including victory against spain in south africa. I agree that the swiss are favourites, but those odds are too short. for me, the value lies in the number of goals scored. Just 2 of the last 13 games played in switzerland have gone over 2.5 goals (uruguay and england), with the swiss having scored either 0 or 1 in their last 8 home outings. Wales have had 3 games bringing in 3 goals in their last 13 and have only scored twice away from home in the same game once in 5 years (lichtenstein). We are missing Bellamy and the rest of the front line are not international quality. I would expect Wales to play tight and try and counter. The Swiss are not freescoring and under 2.5 goals looks good value imo. this will be my first proper bet of the season :hope

[nervic]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October greetings, my first post on this forum.. i just wanted to inform you that our coach (serbian) came out with definitive line-up, and he excluded Zigic from it.. instead of him, we'll se Mrdja up front. As for defense, it is likely that Slobodan Rajkovic will pair Neven Subotic in central defense, with Lukovic distributed to the left side. Either way, our defense needs pace and is very poorly organized, so I think that Italy will score at least once. (with through ball to Cassano) As for the final verdict, I'm not making any bets on this game.. my bet goes on Belarus. Good luck everyone !! PS: Serbia will start with Tosic on the left wing, who will jump in for out-of-form Jovanovic

[aliando]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

greetings, my first post on this forum.. i just wanted to inform you that our coach (serbian) came out with definitive line-up, and he excluded Zigic from it.. instead of him, we'll se Mrdja up front. As for defense, it is likely that Slobodan Rajkovic will pair Neven Subotic in central defense, with Lukovic distributed to the left side. Either way, our defense needs pace and is very poorly organized, so I think that Italy will score at least once. (with through ball to Cassano) As for the final verdict, I'm not making any bets on this game.. my bet goes on Belarus. Good luck everyone !! PS: Serbia will start with Tosic on the left wing, who will jump in for out-of-form Jovanovic

:welcome to PL mate

[srki]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

greetings, my first post on this forum.. i just wanted to inform you that our coach (serbian) came out with definitive line-up, and he excluded Zigic from it.. instead of him, we'll se Mrdja up front. As for defense, it is likely that Slobodan Rajkovic will pair Neven Subotic in central defense, with Lukovic distributed to the left side. Either way, our defense needs pace and is very poorly organized, so I think that Italy will score at least once. (with through ball to Cassano) As for the final verdict, I'm not making any bets on this game.. my bet goes on Belarus. Good luck everyone !! PS: Serbia will start with Tosic on the left wing, who will jump in for out-of-form Jovanovic

Can you tell us where you find this infos? Thanks

[Jase82]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October England - 5.5 Asian Corner Handicap @ 1.95 - BET365 v Montenegro. As some have mentioned, Montenegro should be very organised and compact. Because of that and our inability sometimes to break stubborn opposition down, I am backing us to beat this handicap tonight. I can't see us losing, but it might be a tight game that hopefully won't see an early goal. With possibly, Young and Johnson down the wings, it gives us enough width. Scotland + 4 Corner Handicap @ 1.80 - BET365 V Spain. Because of Scotland's never say die attitude some might say there is more value backing Spain on a corner handicap. However, away from home they're likely to go more for ball retention, and I think Scotland will prove a bigger test at Hampden. Denmark V Cyprus OVER 9.5 corners @ 1.9 ( Asian Total Corners)- BET365. I think this line is set a little low, and I can't really fathom the odds on the home side tbh. Cyprus gave Portugal a very real test in their first fixture, and I think they're better than the straight win odds suggest. Having said that, I can see one or both these teams having to chase the game at some point. Switzerland V Wales + 3.5 Asian Corner Handicap @ 1.85 - BET365. I think Switzerland will more or less win this fixture, as I can't see Wales having enough quality myself. But I think Wales will put together a spirited performance here, and the Swiss don't tend to do that well on corners tbh.

[valim]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October i thing it is a great bet

Liechtenstein		Czech Rep

first half over 2 goals 1.8

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October :welcome to PL valim. :ok We need some reasoning why you think it is such a good bet please. ;)

[aliando]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

i thing it is a great bet

Liechtenstein		Czech Rep

first half over 2 goals 1.8

:welcome to PL mate i think gammon is the best meat. nice to have an opinion but its irrelevant without some kind of reasoning. PL is about quality mate - you need to back up your thoughts with reasoning here mate :ok

[ultravires]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October Thanks for your thoughts srki. Mauri is left-footed so we must presume he will play on the left hand side. This will mean it is he who plays against Ivanovic and Krasic on the Serbian right hand side. Mauri is attack-minded, but just not good enough in my opinion which is why I see little threat from him. Marchisio will be on the Italian right facing, as you say, Lomic and Jovanovic. Marchisio is an al-rounder, but in my view better defensively than attacking. So while you say Lomic is a bad player,I don't think Marchisio will worry him that much. So it may make sense to swap Mauri and Marchisio over to opposite sides of the pitch in terms of roles for the team which I suppose could happen. It would be a little surprising though. With regards to the formation Serbia will play, whether it is 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, I'm sure at some point they would both become a 4-5-1. I agree totally that Serbia must try and win the CM and if they do then they have a good chance of a draw in my opinion.

[El Ninyo]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

I do not trust Hiddink even %1.

Now after the match I will broaden my perspective.. 1) Guus Hiddink is a virus that wrapped Turkey. 2) If he is a manager, I am the president of the USA.

[Mustafa]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

Azerbaijan - Turkey As I mentioned earlier we play very good at home and teams struggle against us. Most of games end Under 2.5 Goals and I expect the same this time as well. Last time Turkey won 1-0 here and considering that it is not the Turkey team that play back then and that Azerbaijan became stronger in recent years I believe we can snatch a draw here. However, knowing how Turkey plays they might defend the whole game and then score some unfair penalty or ricochet goal. No offense to Turkish fans but that's how Turkish teams play sometime. So, I will take some correct score markets here. Prices from William Hill Turkey 1-0 @ 7.00 Draw 0-0 @ 12.00 Draw 1-1 @ 9.50

All my bets lost, but honestly I did not see us winning this one. Really happy and Turkey can say good bye to EURO 2012 :beer

[archie7]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October Belgium vs Austria Austria (+0.75) @ 1.89(SBO) Belgium should be slight favourites in this match because of Home advantage and they have slightly better technical players, but I dont see Belgium running away with the game here. Lukaku and Ogun up front wont have too many chances against Austria and they are not the most clinical pair for me. Austria have just as much potential to hurt Belgium and I can see this game going to a draw. Italy vs Serbia Serbia (+0.75) @ 1.93 (SBO) Italy are just not convincing to me lately. Viviano-Chiellini-Bonucci back three looks vulnerable and with Pazzini/Cassano up front, I dont see Italy crushing teams with large wins. I expect a close match here with a draw very likely. Netherlands vs Sweden Over 4.50 @ 9.00(VC) Offensively, both sides are solid with established strikers (Huntelaar,Kuyt) and (Berg,Ibrahimovic) but defensively weak, I think both teams will have alot of chances to score here. Value for me considering the high price. Scotland vs Spain Spain (-1.25) @ 2.02(SBO) Cant see pass Spain on this one. Form-wise, Scotland has been dissapointing, losing to Czech and managing only a 1-goal win against Liechtenstein at home(Spain thrashed them 4-0 playing as away team). Quality-wise, Spain are also way ahead of Scotland and with Llorente finding form playing along Villa, I think the handicap will likely be beaten here.:hope

[El Ninyo]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

Turkey can say good bye to EURO 2012 :beer

Even looking at my initial thoughts I don't see Belgium or Austria can pass Turkey. So Turkey will most probably be 2nd in the group and play elimination.

[Mustafa]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October England - Montenegro I agree with what has been said here already about most of games at Wembley having over 2.5 goals and my guess is that this game won't be an exception, even though Montenegro did not concede a single goal in their first 3 games. Rooney did score against Switzerland and I really like the the special offer at William Hill which I will take. Rooney to Score 2+ @ 5.00

[Mustafa]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

Even looking at my initial thoughts I don't see Belgium or Austria can pass Turkey. So Turkey will most probably be 2nd in the group and play elimination.

We will see :) Everyone, including most people in Azerbaijan, expected Turkey to get 3 points easily today. So, nothing is sure in football.

[srki]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

Thanks for your thoughts srki. Mauri is left-footed so we must presume he will play on the left hand side. This will mean it is he who plays against Ivanovic and Krasic on the Serbian right hand side. Mauri is attack-minded, but just not good enough in my opinion which is why I see little threat from him. Marchisio will be on the Italian right facing, as you say, Lomic and Jovanovic. Marchisio is an al-rounder, but in my view better defensively than attacking. So while you say Lomic is a bad player,I don't think Marchisio will worry him that much. So it may make sense to swap Mauri and Marchisio over to opposite sides of the pitch in terms of roles for the team which I suppose could happen. It would be a little surprising though. With regards to the formation Serbia will play, whether it is 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, I'm sure at some point they would both become a 4-5-1. I agree totally that Serbia must try and win the CM and if they do then they have a good chance of a draw in my opinion.

You're wellcome ultravires, and yes I know that Mauri is left-footed but I was counting on surprise factor over our right side 'cause Mauri is much more offensive than Marchisio.In our team under Antic same situation was with Tosic who is left-footed but played mostly on right side as replacement for Krasic. And one more thing, considering that there is not yet available official line-ups, I would please you to delete post of Nervic 'cause it's ordinary spam.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October MOLDOVA -1 @ 4/9....Paddy Power(medium stakes)....I'm going for what appears to be the obvious here.The obvious doesn't always work out but the goals against San Marino are huge.They have played Sweden and Hungary away and Holland at home but to concede 19 goals in the 3 games is collossal.Sweden even played the last 66 minutes with 10 men and still scored 3. Moldova only lost 1-0 at home to the Dutch and 2-1 away in Hungary.They beat Finland 2-0(even though the fins had a man sent off) but San Marino have lost their last 16 games by more than a goal........

[Fader]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October England Vs Montenegro: Adam Johnson and Ashley Young both starting in this game will give England alot of width, and even if these players find themselves cutting inside it will still produce a few corners i believe. The 1.83 on England -5 Corner H'Cap i like the looks of. England -5 Corner H'Cap 1.83 - Bet365

[srki]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October First, my apology to Nervic he was right about our line-up: Serbia: Brkic-Ivanovic Subotic Rajkovic Lukovic-Krasic Stankovic Kuzmanovic Kacar Tosic-Mrdja Italy as expected Well, obviously we are going to try to win but our defense are playing for first time in this composition.As I said, now (with Tosic and Mrdja) fast playing over wings and on counter-attack is possible and I think there is great chance for this game to goes in over.Stojkovic was obviously under stress 'cause of our so called fans who more like their club then their own country.It's big question how will Brkic do the job tonight.Hole on the left side is now solid filled with Lukovic and Tosic, and who win in CM, in my opinion, wins the game.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October A quick view on the Russia game....no bet for me.....don't read too much into the Ireland-Russia result.Russia pressed Ireland when Ireland had the ball and passed it around midfield well after a shaky opening but they were aided by a terrible Irish midfield and some non-existent Irish tactics. The Irish midfield was always behind the play when the Russians broke and gave no cover to the back four for the goals. The Russian defence isn't great and they were under pressure in the last 20 minutes when Ireland pumped the long balls in. I'm sure the Macedonian manager looked at this match and will have noticed the Russians frailty at set pieces..... Russia should win alright and good luck to all their backers(hoping for a draw myself) but I won't be getting involved here......

[Fader]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October Scotland Vs Spain: Scotland have a good record against Spain. Winning 2 and drawing one and not losing since the 70's but i think that matters very little tonight. They have Miller upfront, and they do tend to have a decent record at home, but Spain are the world champs. Spain missing Xavi, Torres & Fabregas, but still have the likes of Villa, Iniesta and co avaliable.. I'm going for Spain -1,-1.5 @ 1.85 and also a double bet with the above. Villa is certainly due a goal as he rarely doesn't score for Spain.. Spain -1.0,-1.5 1.85 - Bet365 Double England -5 / Spain -1,1.5 3.48 - Bet365

[Jr23]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October Estonia - Slovenia Great result for us against Serbia, it was our best Euro qualification result in our history, getting 3 important points where everyone else have left max with a point .But lets be honest, with all that World Class talent, Serbia was simply toothless and they were expected to get a comfortable win there..In that game, Raio Piiroja, influental captain and the one of the most important member of this Estonia side got a yellow and so he will watch this game from the stands , he will be sorely missed, its he who holds the defense together and because of this Im leaning towards away win..and add there Zenjov, Karpaty Lyiv striker, also very important member and exactly the needed threat for this Slovenia D because of the pace will miss out after getting injury..Estonia squad is very young still and Slovenia is not a Friday-Serbia side, where every player played simply too selfish., trying to win the game on their own..Slovenia is exactly the opposite..They are very strong as an unit, and they are more in form than Estonia, Matavž scored a hattrick against Faroe Islands and Ilicic is raping everything on his way. I dont see many goals in here, but i believe the aways side will get the 3 points.. Take away win 2.21 @ Pinnacle

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October Montenegro captain and top scorer Vucinuc out fyi

[Hercule Poirot]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

All my bets lost' date=' but honestly I did not see us winning this one. Really happy and Turkey can say good bye to EURO 2012 :beer[/quote'] I dont agree it. Turkey played well but Azerbaijan is very lucky. İn first goal; after 3 minutes Gökhan Gönül and Emre Belözoğlu missed goal. And After goal; Azerbaijan shuted 11 players. I hope Turkey will be second in group. See you in revenge :)

[bookies worst enemy]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

Montenegro captain and top scorer Vucinuc out fyi

Good News, it reduces Montenegro chances of scoring

[Mustafa]

Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October

I dont agree it. Turkey played well but Azerbaijan is very lucky. İn first goal; after 3 minutes Gökhan Gönül and Emre Belözoğlu missed goal. And After goal; Azerbaijan shuted 11 players. I hope Turkey will be second in group. See you in revenge :)

That is inevitable. But from the previous qualifiers when Azerbaijan defeated a team they failed to qualify because 3 important points dropped in Azerbaijan were crucial in the end. P.S. Mods, sorry for the off topic message :)