Robinnho

As you have reasoned, I bet Cerrundolo -1.5 set to beat Hanfmann with better odds.
As for Paolini-Danilovic, I will give a miss because I think Paolini has reached  her peak in this clay swing while Danilova is still reaching her best...... thus for me is a 40-60 to Paolini. 

On holiday this week so my research is limited to a quick look when the kids are in bed before I hit the sack. 
Ostapenko to beat Stearns - 1.44 with Betfair
Pegula to beat Giorgi - 1.39 with Betfair
Pavlyuchenkova to beat Samsonova - 3.05 with Betfair
Kasatkina to beat Vondrousova - 3.2 with Betfair
 

Hi All,
Have not posted forever. Actually been working pretty hard.
Six players I do like today. Two are low low priced.
F. Cerundolo and Nicolas Jarry. Both are in an exceptional place. Very confident on their favorite surface. Cerundolo plays Munar, who he destroyed at the Argentina Open in Feb. Jarry is on a seriously good run, beating Dimitrov, Zverev, Ruud and Lajovic in Geneva last week. His opponent Dellien is on a bad run, losing plenty, behind a very weak serve.
My 3rd player is Azarenka to beat Andreescu. An interesting article regarding Andreescu's state of mind.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/may/27/bianca-andreescu-interview-tennis-french-open
Some of these big name players are just not 'there' mentally. Konteveit, Pliskova, Kvitova, Andreescu are all very well off financially. The 1st 3 all lost already, and they played poorly. Pliskova was useless against Stephens, Tactically just awful. Konteveit not much better against Pera. Like a zombie on the court, with no preparation. , Kvitova was awful against Bronzetti yesterday. At the most important times just so wild. She hit some balls in the back fence, and is as slow as a cart horse.  She makes Harry Maguire look fast, which is saying something.
I think a motivated Azarenka wins, probably easily after a close 1st set, against someone she matches up well with.
#4 is Krecikova who plays Lesia Tsurenko. Tsurenko is a reasonable player, but her serve is just so weak. Krecikova looks solid. She is a consistent winner, especially in early rounds of majors.
 Azarenka and Krecikova as a double almost even money.
As a 4 legged bet the odds are 2 to 1.
 
My 5th pick is Clara Burel to beat Sorribes Tormo. I watched quite a few of the Strasbourg matches, and Burel played very well. She is a former junior world #1, and will have strong home support. She is small in stature but is figuring out how to beat, bigger stronger (physically) players. She hits a looping, deep ball which will be difficult, especially on a warm Summer day. She beat Pera, Cirstea and Kanepi in Strasbourg, and lost in 3 to Svitolina.
 
My 6th pick is Linda Noskova to beat Danka Kovinic. Kovinic coming off a retirement against Krecikova in the Italian Open (while being thrashed 6-2 4-1), probably still has a slight injury worry. Call me a cynic but she is Just in Paris to collect the 1st round losers cheque.
 
Good luck today.

Today doesn't seem to be anywhere near as interesting!
Selena Janicijevic to beat Oceane Dodin at 2.40 with Unibet
Janicijevic managed to beat Dodin in three sets in Strasbourg just a couple of days ago, and 2.40 seems like a big price for her to repeat that feat. Dodin has been subpar all season long, really, and the slower the clay, the worse her performances.

Favs I like tomorrow:
Pavlyuchenkova (too powerful for Linda imo)
Putintseva ( never liked Zanevska)
Stearns (Siniakova didn’t play a match since Miami, Stearns pretty consistent in the last matches, I could bet on a 2-0 here)
Kvitova (1.85 vs. Cocciaretto is a lot for a player that made the semis in 2020 and reached the 2R in the last 2 years, I understand she is not in a good shape, but the odds look good here)
Zapata Miralles ( if healthy he should win vs. Schwartzman, who lately is playing pretty bad)
 
Underdogs I like tomorrow:
Yastremska (could win at least 1 set imo)
Marino (not good on clay, but Shnaider is a teenager that never played a match in Europe, talented yes, but the odds look too generous to me here)
Bonaventure (Blinkova had a good run in Strasbourg, but Bonaventure sometimes can be a tough opponent, she might take at least 1 set)
Shang (played good qualis)
Popyrin (he should be fav vs. Karatsev imo)

Peyton Stearns (-3.5) to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.79 with Unibet
As has already been pointed out, Siniakova hasn't played for quite a while now, while Stearns is an up-and-coming player that's made lots and lots of progress recently. She should be very hungry as well, and I can definitely see her running away with this one.
Dominic Thiem to beat Pedro Cachin at 1.80 with William Hill
The odds have now risen so much that I have to play Thiem over the three set format. He's improved at least somewhat recently, and he should have the fitness and experience edge if this goes on for a while.
Fabio Fognini to beat Felix Auger Aliassime at 3.20 with Unibet
With @four-leaf on this one!

Shnaider to beat Marino - 1.58 with Betfair
As mentioned Marino doesn't play much on clay and she's worth opposing here imo. Shnaider is 67-21 on clay with Marino at 29-30, so Shnaider, who has just turned 19, has won more matches on clay in 3 years than Marino has played in her entire career spanning back to 2007. 
Putintseva to beat Zanevska - 1.54 with Betfair
Putintseva is levels above Zanevska. Her defeats on clay this year have been against Riera (probable tank after winning the first set), Gauff, Garcia and Alexandrova. Zanevska has lost 9 of her last 11 matches with her last three defeats coming against an out of form Teichmann, an unranked Strycova and Volynets who can't play on clay. 

Thankfully the day one fivefold came in, so now onto the next one.
Day Two Accumulator (Fourfold)
C. Alcaraz / J. Ostapenko / M. Vondrousova / C. Garcia
Odds of 1.77 with Coral

Both bets came in yesterday, and I'm going for this today:
Lucas Pouille to beat Hsin Chun Tseng at 1.86 with Unibet
I watched Pouille a bit against Machac, and he really wants to be back it seemed to me. The crowd was supporting him a lot, as well, and Tseng is perhaps a worse opponent than Machac, really, so I'd have Pouille somewhat lower here.

WTA Strasbourg - Davis to beat Tomova - 1.94 with Betfair
Davis beat Tomova a few weeks ago on clay. Tomova did win an 80K on clay last month but since then results have been mixed with losses to Burel and Grabher. Davis lost her first match on clay this year to Sebov but after that has lost to Cirstea twice and Cocciaretto. 
I think this is a case of higher level player Davis against the one with the clay court experience. Davis is in slightly better form in the last few weeks including already beating Tomova where she was 1.71 at the start of the match. 
 

Heather Watson (+5.5) to beat Olga Danilovic at 1.87 with Pinnacle
John Jeffrey Wolf to beat Hugo Dellien at 1.77 with Unibet
Danilovic won the ITF tournament in Madrid, and the odds for her against Watson are an over-reaction to that. The conditions will be different in Paris, she hasn't had much rest, and Watson is a decent enough opponent, so the handicap line looks a touch high to me here. Meanwhile, Wolf looked surprisingly good in Rome, and Dellien is a bit of a tourist nowadays.

Friedsam vs. Blinkova @1.67 
Blinkova latest results on clay are not very good imo, she won a match in Rome vs. Sherif that was in complete control of the match and then choked, in the 1R here gave away a set to Hesse… ALF played a great match in Rome against Badosa, then lost badly to Yuan in Paris and yesterday gave a double bagel to Zhan (who is losing to anyone, so that doesn’t mean a lot). It’s a bet more against Blinkova, counting on ALF grit to stay focused on the important points of the match

Emiliana Arango (-3.5) to beat Himeno Sakatsume at 2.02 with Pinnacle
Arango has played herself into a very solid form, having faced some good opposition, while Sakatsume hasn't really played outside ITFs so far this season, and she hasn't played in Europe yet, either. I'd be quite surprised to see a different outcome than Arango win here, hopefully it's by a decent margin as well!

I backed her at 2.00 about 5 mins before I posted this.  I always try to post my picks just after I've backed them myself. 
Down to 1.82 so nice value. 😁

I've just seen she won by walkover.  My bet will be void then.  I'm assuming that's what you were referring to in your post? And not just the price?

Yeah true, but her form has be terrible so didn't want to jump in too early. I often like to find capable underdogs playing an out of form favourite,  like Rus beating Anisimova the other week.  
Parry has points to defend at the FO though so we'll see what her draw looks like. Can't see her defeating the reigning champ in R1 like last year though lol

WTA Florence - Paolini to beat Yastremska - 2.24 with Betfair
Both players don't favour clay but Paolini leads the h2h 4-1 (none on clay) and playing at home. Paolini pushed Rybakina for a close first set before losing so that would have given her confidence. 
Yastremska won 6-3 7-5 against the number 296 wild card entry and still gave up 8 break points and with her opponent winning 59% first serve points and just 36% second serve points, Yastremska could only win 4/9 break points herself. 
I think Paolini is worth a shot at these odds. 

WTA Madrid - Sabalenka to beat Andreeva 2-0 @1.75 with Ladbrokes
Andreeva is flying, she turned 16 the other day (yesterday maybe?) but shows no fear on the court, hitting well from both sides and moving well. Sabalenka is a different ball game though. Her power is unmatched by most, and when the market puts Sabalenka at 1.30 or below (like here), then she's won 18/19 and only dropped two sets I think in those 18 wins. 
Sabalenka to teach Andreeva about top level tennis today and I am backing the 2-0. 
Andreeva has a bright future for sure though.

I'm not really feeling it as well. Anyway I will go with Garcia, Cerundolo and Fritz.

Zapata to beat Evans @ 2,10 bet365
It’s clay, Spain... Zapata should love this! Evans went deep in the previous tournament and I feel like everyone will be on him because of form… and I know not everyone wins im betting 😊 Besides that I'm not sure how good he really is on clay... He overperformed on clay this season and this has to stop somewhere, at some point and this feels like the right place and time for it to happen.
Zapata to beat Evans 2:0 @ 3,50 bet365
If my call is right, it should be an easy win for Zapata with basically no resistance from Evans... and on top of that Zapata already lost a set against McDonald(s) in the first round so I'm expecting an easier win here.
Etcheverry to beat Tiafoe @ 2,30 bet365
It was very close in Houston in favour of Tiafoe, but you feel like he was always going to win there, in the US... and this one should go in the other direction, if there is another close match. Etcheverry is a clay court specialist with a decent season so far, but we are still waiting for a big breakout win/tournament... Even though, this is my least favourite bet of the day out of these three!
Niemeier to beat Mertens @ 2,30 bet365
I love when a player is out of form as Niemeier and then comes back out of nowhere and basically everyone is against her "she is out of form, lost 14 out of 16 matches this year so far...". She is a professional tennis player, can't be losing all the time, otherwise she would be out of WTA and serious competition... and to be honest Mertens feels like very beatable player on clay!
I usually bet this at my local bookie and add a few low odds (1,1-1,3) matches like:
Seyboth Wild to beat Navone @ 1,30 bet365

Tomova + Rakhimova + Struff @ 1.76
I don’t see any of them having problems passing the 1st round of qualis vs. far inferior players (if healthy of course)

The odds today are awfully low. Anyway I'll go with Rune at 1.25, Sabalenka at 1.38 and Alcaraz to win 2:0 at 1.30 😬 - all 3 of them at 2.20 🤐. I typically don't like playing 1.25-1.30 but in this case I think everything will hit easy and there are no matches to choose from. I'll go large on this one. As Swami said Rune can be played to win 2:0 at 1.70-1.75.

Jabeur at 1.44 and Fritz at 1.50 against Thiem. I'm a fan of Thiem and is just starting to play better after the surgeries. Anyway, I don't think he can compete with the top 10 yet.

Pegula loss caused me dearly on my accumulator with football and basketball bets! (Already won last night)

Pegula loss caused me dearly on my accumulator with football and basketball bets! (Already won last night)