Tennis Tips - May 22 - May 28

[CzechPunter]

😁

[CzechPunter]

Emiliana Arango (-3.5) to beat Himeno Sakatsume at 2.02 with Pinnacle

Arango has played herself into a very solid form, having faced some good opposition, while Sakatsume hasn't really played outside ITFs so far this season, and she hasn't played in Europe yet, either. I'd be quite surprised to see a different outcome than Arango win here, hopefully it's by a decent margin as well!

[CzechPunter]

Heather Watson (+5.5) to beat Olga Danilovic at 1.87 with Pinnacle

John Jeffrey Wolf to beat Hugo Dellien at 1.77 with Unibet

Danilovic won the ITF tournament in Madrid, and the odds for her against Watson are an over-reaction to that. The conditions will be different in Paris, she hasn't had much rest, and Watson is a decent enough opponent, so the handicap line looks a touch high to me here. Meanwhile, Wolf looked surprisingly good in Rome, and Dellien is a bit of a tourist nowadays.

[Swami]

Friedsam vs. Blinkova @1.67 

Blinkova latest results on clay are not very good imo, she won a match in Rome vs. Sherif that was in complete control of the match and then choked, in the 1R here gave away a set to Hesse… ALF played a great match in Rome against Badosa, then lost badly to Yuan in Paris and yesterday gave a double bagel to Zhan (who is losing to anyone, so that doesn’t mean a lot). It’s a bet more against Blinkova, counting on ALF grit to stay focused on the important points of the match

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Strasbourg - Navarro to beat Teichmann - 2.12 with Betfair.

No time to write up sorry. 

[four-leaf]

Navarro has been great recently

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Strasbourg - Davis to beat Tomova - 1.94 with Betfair

Davis beat Tomova a few weeks ago on clay. Tomova did win an 80K on clay last month but since then results have been mixed with losses to Burel and Grabher. Davis lost her first match on clay this year to Sebov but after that has lost to Cirstea twice and Cocciaretto. 

I think this is a case of higher level player Davis against the one with the clay court experience. Davis is in slightly better form in the last few weeks including already beating Tomova where she was 1.71 at the start of the match. 

 

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Rabat - Rakhimova to beat Parks - 1.67 with Betfair

Parks is only half decent indoors and it was a close second set for her to beat Tikhonova ranked #236. Parks has lost 10 of her last 13 on clay when an underdog. Rakhimova on the other hand has won her last five matches as favourite on clay and all in straight sets. She's had a positive clay record for five of the last six years and should get past Parks today. 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Smiles Tennis

[CzechPunter]

Both bets came in yesterday, and I'm going for this today:

Lucas Pouille to beat Hsin Chun Tseng at 1.86 with Unibet

I watched Pouille a bit against Machac, and he really wants to be back it seemed to me. The crowd was supporting him a lot, as well, and Tseng is perhaps a worse opponent than Machac, really, so I'd have Pouille somewhat lower here.

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Strasbourg - Pera to beat Burel 2-0 - 2.34 with Betfair

Pera has won 18/19 on clay when favourite, 14 of those 18 were in straight sets. Burel meanwhile can move well but lacks power, lacks weapons and will try to moonball most things back into the centre of the court for Pera to dispatch as a winner. 

[CzechPunter]

Nao Hibino to beat Ylena In-Albon at 1.58 with Unibet

Hibino has been one of the most pleasant surprises for me in recent times, she's really played herself into quite some form ahead of the qualifiers, and she looked very prepared in the previous round, completely out-playing a semi-competent opponent without wasting much energy. I think she's two levels ahead of In-Albon form-wise, and I like the odds for her to win.

[Smiles Tennis]

Strasbourg - Blinkova to beat Davis - 2.13 with Pinnacle

Similar records on clay at tour level, Davis 23-36, Blinkova 12-16 but the extra matches won't give Davis an extra edge at that number. I think Blinkova is the value here as she is in better form this week with a great win against an in form Navarro. Davis was a bit lucky with Pavlyuchenkova lacking the fitness for three setters on clay after her injury because she would have lost otherwise, despite playing some great shots. 

 

[Smiles Tennis]

Rabat - Bronzetti to beat Stephens - 2.9 with Betfair

Sloane isn't reliable enough on clay still to be this price. She's the better player but almost lost today and played the #237 ranked Babos and unranked Zvonareva in previous rounds. 

Bronzetti isn't as experienced but has reached the SF here last year and has reached a clay final at Palermo before so hopefully nerves don't hit her too much. Worth a shot at 2.9 with Sloane being in the form she's in. 

[Swami]

I would have bet on Svitolina if the odds were a little bit higher, as she shouldn’t be too tired and has a real shot at winning the tournament, which would bring her around the 180 position… anyway, these pre RG tournaments are quite tricky… retirements, walkovers, poor commitment by many players

[Smiles Tennis]

7 hours ago, Swami said:

I would have bet on Svitolina if the odds were a little bit higher, as she shouldn’t be too tired and has a real shot at winning the tournament, which would bring her around the 180 position… anyway, these pre RG tournaments are quite tricky… retirements, walkovers, poor commitment by many players

Yes, Svitolina played well yesterday. Her shots were flying and I can't see Burel having the weapons to trouble her. But I don't like backing less than about 1.7 now as I see to get them wrong whenever I do! lol

[four-leaf]

17 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

Rabat - Bronzetti to beat Stephens - 2.9 with Betfair

Sloane isn't reliable enough on clay still to be this price. She's the better player but almost lost today and played the #237 ranked Babos and unranked Zvonareva in previous rounds. 

Bronzetti isn't as experienced but has reached the SF here last year and has reached a clay final at Palermo before so hopefully nerves don't hit her too much. Worth a shot at 2.9 with Sloane being in the form she's in. 

Nice one, had my eyes on Bronzetti and placed some good bets in-play..

[Smiles Tennis]

7 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Nice one, had my eyes on Bronzetti and placed some good bets in-play..

Cheers, her and Blinkova so far today so it's going well so far. 

[Swami]

2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Nice one, had my eyes on Bronzetti and placed some good bets in-play..

Started to watch when it was too late too place a bet… Stephens was a walking bye today, part the fatigue after yesterday’s match, part tanking before RG, where she defends QF (but she might as well lose in straight sets to Pliskova in 1R, she looks so careless these days about tennis, you never know which version will show up on court… anyway, as far as I recall she managed till know to avoid fines for tanking, so good for her)

[Swami]

Danilovic, Tauson, Townsend, Rus, Yastremska, Zidansek who last year got to the 3R… some uneasy customers coming out from RG qualis, as well as Karatsev, Seyboth Wild and maybe Shang for the man imo

[Smiles Tennis]

Rabat Final - Grabher to beat Bronzetti - 2.38 with Betfair

Both on good runs to the final, both had a tanker opponent (Trevisan and Stephens), Bronzetti was in terrible form until the last two weeks but now playing well. When we look at clay only ranking it's Grabher #15 v #49 for Bronzetti. Bronzetti does have 2 WTA tour level finals but she lost them both. When we look at overall finals at all levels, Grabher is 12-13, winning her last five. Bronzetti is 5-7 and has lost 7 of her last 8 so mentally she might struggle in finals. 

Overall titles at all levels Grabher 12 (11 on clay) v Bronzetti 5 (3 on clay). I make this a bit closer than the odds suggest and Grabher at 2.38 is value for me. 

[four-leaf]

11 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

Rabat Final - Grabher to beat Bronzetti - 2.38 with Betfair

Both on good runs to the final, both had a tanker opponent (Trevisan and Stephens), Bronzetti was in terrible form until the last two weeks but now playing well. When we look at clay only ranking it's Grabher #15 v #49 for Bronzetti. Bronzetti does have 2 WTA tour level finals but she lost them both. When we look at overall finals at all levels, Grabher is 12-13, winning her last five. Bronzetti is 5-7 and has lost 7 of her last 8 so mentally she might struggle in finals. 

Overall titles at all levels Grabher 12 (11 on clay) v Bronzetti 5 (3 on clay). I make this a bit closer than the odds suggest and Grabher at 2.38 is value for me. 

Might have been one bet to many there on the week but move along, over to next week.. Don't over do it @Smiles Tennis

[Smiles Tennis]

55 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Might have been one bet to many there on the week but move along, over to next week.. Don't over do it @Smiles Tennis

Just over 10 points profit for May for the picks I've posted here so happy with that as I've not followed the tennis for a while and a few days left for anything that looks interesting.