Pep004
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Posts posted by Pep004
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As I am offering Ligue 1 hard market analyses only for subscribers this season, I received an interesting question today. One of followers asked why am I not predicting who will score on match, regarding the fact, that my analyses are going really deep... Well, challenge accepted.
As it is soft market I will post it on footalyct.com/blog every weekend.Saint-Etienne - Metz
PICK: Remy Cabella anytime goalscorer 3,55 Bet365, BetfairCabella came to ASSE from Marseille as a loaned player and quickly became one of the most important figures on the pitch for Garcia’s boys. In first four matches, he received “man of the match” award twice, scoring a goal and adding one assist. Today they are facing Metz, which is at least defensively among the worst teams in the league. Watching them against Nantes match before an international break, I stayed without one positive thing about their game. They are lost on the pitch. Playing without aggression, passion and totally without clear idea. Against teams as ASSE they might struggle, even though Garcia will miss his best scorer Bamba due to internal suspension. Except him, he will also miss captain Perrin, Gabriel and Hernani, three important first team players and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a goal from Metz side today. Anyway, with two pretty slow central defenders and even though they are usually playing with two defensive midfielders, which might put number 10 role in jeopardy position, they are often wrongly positioned and Cabella knows to take advantage of that. It can also happen that Remy will start or at least play a part of the match as a winger, and I think that he will have even more space for 1on1 there. I also need to mention that Metz is often making fouls in areas for direct free kick, and Cabella is a very good set-piece taker, while I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a penalty taker neither. ASSE is pretty big favourite in this match (even too big favourite IMO), and I prefer to take those juicy odds on Cabella to score.
Caen - Angers
PICK: Ivan Santini goalscorer anytime @3,00 BetfairInteresting odds I have to say. Croatian target man will be the main threat for Angers, who is coming on Stade Michel d’Ornano with several problems. Due to suspension they will miss midfielder Santamaria and defender Pavlovic. Winger Ketkeophomphone is close to be ready, but he wasn’t included in the squad, as well as attacker Kanga and first goalkeeper Letellier! Caen is playing pretty solid matches at home this season, creating lots of scoring chances and Santini is by far their main attacker. He is also a penalty kick taker. Caen is used to play with long balls, especially from both flanks and as speciality they are hitting early crosses in the box, where are two “giants” Santini (190cm) and Rodelin (192cm). Of course Angers have tall defenders, but it’s not that easy to cover Croatian striker when he is in his prime. He scored 3 goals in 8 matches so far, so his start wasn’t so brilliant, but matches like this are perfect for him.
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It's true that Monaco will stay in top of French football, but I think that Lyon is fully capable of taking all three points today.
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Denmark - Romania, PICK Denmark -0,5 1st half @1,862 PINNACLE
Denmark is playing with high motivation and looking for a narrow home win against 4th placed Romania which cannot reach 1-2 places anymore. I need to admit that I started paying attention about this team after they trashed Poland at home with 4-0. They really do have strong squad and it looks that Norwegian coach Hareide fits perfectly to this team. With Delaney and Kvist, they have two strong defensive midfielders, good in duels, while offensive trio with Sisto, Eriksen and Poulsen is one of the strongest offensive trios in this qualification cycle. Of course Romania with currently one of best goalkeepers of Ligue 1 Tatarusanu and attackers like Andone and Stanciu cannot be underestimated but I think that motivation will play a big role in this match. With little bit of luck, or let’s say it differently – with help of Montenegro, Denmark can actually reach first position and qualify directly for next WC. As Poland needs only one point against Montenegro at home it seems pretty impossible to happen, but I believe that first 45 minutes there will be only one goal in heads of Danish players. Right now they are 4th best 2nd placed team, and I believe that even if Poland will get a point, they will try to position themselves as high as possible. I believe that Denmark will win the battle in midfield, which leads to higher number of created chances, while we cannot forget on the fact that they are exceptional team when it comes to free kicks.
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Syria - Australia
Two picks for this one: Syria +0,75 @1,95 SBO & Syria team totals over 0,75 @2,16 PINNACLE
Interesting match between Syria and Australia will start in less then an hour, but there is still some value in odds. Lineups are already known and Syria will come out with strong lineup with Khribin and Al Somah in offensive part of the team. There were rumours that Al Somah, one of best attackers if not the best in country won't be allowed to play due to political reasons, but he is here in starting lineup! This pick isn't that much about Syria as it is against Australia. Aussies are far from what they were some years ago. Moreover today they will miss captain and one of key members of the team Jedinak and Postecoglou decided to play with "strange" 3-2-4-1 formation. If that will seriously look like that on papers then especially left and right central defenders will be exposed pretty harshly, while central one will stay almost in 1on1 situation with already mentioned Al Somah. Tactics like this are normally used when one team is expected to be very very strong in possession, much better in midfield but I cannot imagine that from this Australian side. They scored in last minutes against Thailand to win 2-1 while before that they were destroyed by Japan. Final result was only 2-0 but it could be much higher. I think that bookmakers are seriously underestimating Syria, who really isn't world known opponent, but all in all I expect much bigger problems for Australia then bookmakers. I am pretty sure that in this formation they won't be able to avoid conceding neither, so I advising to separate the stake here.
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Aguero out for Man City as well.
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You're welcome @sodabrab.
Montpellier of course have nothing to lose in this one, but their team is far from something.. I appreciate their manager Der Zakarian but without quality selection it's not easy to make miracles against decent teams as PSG. Sio who came as a substitution for Mounie is suspended for this match so we can expect Ninga in attack who was injured for 90% of last season. I think that Zakarian will try with defensive minded formation even though that isn't his style. 5 defenders? Why not. Or maybe 4 but with doubled full back tactics (maybe Rousillon as defensive wing and true full back behind him to avoid overlaps from PSG's side. Anyway, keep in mind that they are playing against Bayern in midweek. I was looking at half-time market here, but honestly they didn't impress me in last matches. Against Lyon "they scored" two lucky goals (own goals), missed penalty after "clash" of Alves, Neymar and Cavani,... But it's true that they are without Di Maria and Neymar, which means that players as Lucas, Lo Celso, Draxler, etc. will try to do their best to convince Emery to give them more chances.
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There are rumours that Neymar went on Hamilton's party in London even though he wasn't allowed to go by his club... he is out of the squad against Montpellier.
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I can see that plenty of bettors are going with Nice this week. Need to admit that I had the same intention (odds above 2 in start of the week) but I was distracted by the fact that Marlon and Seri won't play. Both picked up injuries this week and both are very important players of the team. Nice finally found good central defender in Marlon and this time Favre won't be able to count on him. I won't lose words about J.M. Seri. In my opinion top5 midfielder of the league.
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And Mounie their main (or one and only) target man and he is in Huddersfield now. You can expect Ranieri in sort of "5 defenders style" again.. so, maybe under 1 first half?
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Transfer window is closed and Ligue 1 lost some great players. Anyway, thanks to PSG from this season on, Ligue 1 will have one of the best players in the world - Brazilian magician Neymar. After a magnificent season of Monaco it was pretty clear that European giants will attack them from all sides. It's true that they lost some important players, but they invested in future with smart signings and we can expect them fighting for highest places again. Plenty of changes happened in Nice, Bordeaux, Rennes and especially in Lille, where Bielsa started his "era" with bringing in several hot prospects. Another team who earned a lot during this transfer window is Lyon, who invested in future as well. Opposite happened in Marseille as they added some experienced players. Some eyebrows were raised about transfer activity in Nantes, Montpellier and Metz.
Big spenders! PSG, Monaco, Lyon, Marseille, Lille.
- Neymar who has joined PSG this summer is most expensive footballer in history. Of course Neymar wasn't the only new superstar in the team. Besides full backs Yuri Berchiche and experienced Dani Alves, PSG loaned Kylian Mbappe from Monaco. All in all 238 million euros!
- As mentioned, Monaco lost few important players but they spent more than 100 millions for Yuri Tielemans (Anderlecht), Stevan Jovetić (Inter Milan), Keita Balde (Lazio), Adama Diakhaby (Rennes), Kongolo (Feyenoord) and Meité (Zulte Waregem).
- Lyon invested in future as well. Except experienced target man Marcelo (Besiktas), they bought young promising players as Bertrand Traore (Chelsea), Mariano Diaz (Real Madrid), Kenny Tete (Ajax), Marçal (Guingamp), Ferland Mendy (Le Havre) and Diop (Celta Vigo) and spent 48,5 million euros.
- Marseille's plans were slightly different as they added experienced players as Luiz Gustavo (Wolfsburg), Adil Rami (Sevilla), Valere Germain (Monaco), Kostas Mitroglou (Benfica), Steve Mandanda (Crystal Palace), Aymen Abdennour (Valencia), while one and only little bit younger player is Jordan Amavi (Aston Villa). All together they spent 42 million euros.
- Lille spent 58 million euros for bunch of young talents!
New projects...
- First of all we need to mention Lille here. With several hot prospects in the team Bielsa will try to do his magic, but as competition is pretty high this season, his job will be far from easy. For promising players as Thiago Maia (Santos), Nicolas Pepe (Angers), Kevin Malcuit (Saint-Etienne), Thiago Mendes and Luiz Araujo (Sao Paulo) Lille needed to pay more than 50 million euros. All in all they added no less than 13 players to the group!
- We have plenty of new faces in Nice as well. After they lost some key players, they tried to replaced them and most known player who joined the team is Wesley Sneijder (Galatasaray).
- We can be sure that Oscar Garcia will try to change defensive minded Saint-Etienne and players who joined them: Assane Diousse (Empoli), Loïs Diony (Dijon), Remy Cabella (Marseille) are suitable for his way of football.
- Bordeuax started new season with high hopes as they brought Benoit Costill (Rennes), Cafu (Ludogorets), Lerager (Zulte Waregem), De Preville (Lille). Even though the most important news for the club was that Brazilian talent Malcom stayed in the club.
- After departure of Conceiçao, Nantes agreed with experienced Claudio Ranieri, but as it seems new coach isn't really happy with the way how the transfer window ended. They added some players to the squad as Ciprian Tatarusanu (Fiorentina), El Ghannasy (Oostende), Rene Krhin (Granada), Nicolas Pallois (Bordeaux), Andrei Girotto (Chapecoense), Kalifa Coulibaly (KAA Gent), Joris Kayembe and Chidozie Awaziem (Porto), but main problem stays in attack. Who can be a quality goalscorer of this team?
- Team who had a pretty decent transfer window is Toulouse. Finalising the deal with Corentin Jean (Monaco) and adding Yaya Sanogo (Arsenal) and experienced Giannelli Imbula (Stoke) and Max-Alain Gradel (Bournemouth).
- Of course we need to add Lyon here, as they have started this season with bunch of new players in first eleven and PSG as well as they brought a new key player to the team.
Ligue 1 will miss bunch of quality players...
As mention on start, some clubs had decent seasons and their key players weren't unnoticed. Biggest fear was in the team of Monaco, where big European clubs were aiming on players as Bernardo Silva, Benjamin Mendy, Timoue Bakayoko, Kylian Mbappe, Djibril Sidibe, Thomas Lemar, Fabinho,... Even though it looked that they will loose all of them, they lost "only four of them". Benjamin Mendy (57,5 million euros) and Bernardo Silva (50 million euros) signed for Manchester City; Timoue Bakayoko (45 million euros) for Chelsea, while Mbappe has been loaned to PSG with future fee which might go till 180 million euros! Lyon lost their key players Alexandre Lacazette (60 million euros to Arsenal) and Corentin Tolisso (41,5 million euros to Bayern) and little bit surprisingly Emanuel Mammana (16,5 million euros to Zenith) as well. Besides that I can stress also transfers of Aurier (from PSG to Tottenham for 25M), Matuidi (from PSG to Juventus for 20M), Dalbert (from Nice to Inter for 20M), Karamoh (from Caen to Inter for 6M), Boudebouz (from Montpellier to Betis for 7M), Ounas (from Bordeaux to Napoli for 10M), Augustin (from PSG to Leipzig for 13M), and several others...
Whole article here: http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/09/summer-trans ... gue-1.html -
I agree @Icongene.. but can you see anything positive in Montpellier? The team who lost two key players Boudebouz and Mounie? I think that Montpellier is one of few teams which is in even worse position than Nantes.
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I am still amazed by Monaco's high conversion rate. For example in the match against Dijon, they haven't prepared lots of chances (less than against Juventus in CL last year), but they won 1-4. 4 of 6 shots on the goal finished in the net and as long as they will play like this, "smaller" teams cannot surprise them. What bothers me today is, that Metz is used to be rock solid when it comes to defending set-pieces, and Monaco scored most of their goals this season right from set-pieces, so 1,30 is simply too short for me, even though without Nguette, Metz is loosing another solid attacker and I really think that they will have big problems this season if they won't bring any attacker till end of the transfer window.
Nantes is facing a tough match against Troyes (where they should take all three points) as plenty of players are out injured.
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I think that Citizens will start season with really high tempo. I am pretty sure that Brighton's defence won't hold too long. I know that a goal from home team can complicate things, but I am pretty sure that Pep will start with 100% and that City will be in front already in the first half.
PICK: Manchester City 1st half -0,5 @1,84
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As said.. Ranieri is far from the right coach for this team. I still hope that I'm wrong, but I think that I am goddamn right.
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Uh, I wouldn't agree with your words about Malcuit. He was among the best individuals of St. Etienne, always among best rated players and provided some assists. It's true that he is quite wxceptional full back, who loves to dribble and play short passes, being involved in the game and because of that, Bielsa's style will suit him and IMO he is a good signing for Lille.
On the other hand I think that you are overestimating Bordeaux and underestimating Favre's Nice. If they will succeed to hold Seri, Dealbert and Cyprien I think that they will be just fine. Also Balotelli wasn't that crazily important for the team as Belhanda, Cyprien and Seri for example. There are still some young talents as Koziello who might have a great season in front of him. They already bought promising young winger Lees-Melou and I believe that they will sign more players too. and Favre has his vision and players are following his ideas well.
Btw Alexandre Mendy, who signed for Bordeaux is attacker and not a full back. With creativity mostly on Malcom, I think that they won't be able to reach top5 this season.
And when it comes to transfers.. Saying that 10M is too much... Well, I don't know. We are in the period where transfer fees are jumpeing over 100M like nothing..
P.s. Don't get my message wrong, I appreciate to see different opinions about the league. And I am just adding mine.
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Anyone else think that Walker won't really fit into the City team? It's true that he's physically strong and fast, but what about the ball control? Especially for Guardiola's "inside" full backs? I didn't follow him close enough on last season, but I am really not sure about him.
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It's getting closer and closer... Neymar might be the "biggest star" of this transfer window.
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Brazilians Caju and Maia might be new reinforcements of Bielsa's Lille.
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Agree abour Claudio. I hope that he will keep on with work of Conceicao and add his motivation.. his high pressure way is similar to Sergio's, so.. we'll see. About Lille.. except Malcuit (exceptional full back from ASSE) they are biding only for young players (mainly 1996/97 generation). On the other hand they lost Corchia (Sevilla). Otherwise except Thiago Mendes from Sao Paulo (25) their signings are Araujo (20), Pepe (22), Dabila (20) and Boukholda (20), Ié (23), Ballo (20), Soumaré (18), Koffi (20), Ponce (20). I need to admit that I am big fan of Bielsa and that I cannot wait to him back in the business, but still.. I don't see them in top6.
All the transfers till now, friendly matches,.. here: http://www.fa-p.eu/p/ligue-1.html
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Shortly, I think that Crystal Palace will suit to FDB's character. He is a charismatic and energetic coach with pretty clear vision. CP have one of most interesting squads "down there", for me personally really interesting squad, where in my opinion you can use different tactical approaches and I think that young and hungry manager is a good solution for the team. It's true that he arrived in a tough league for managers, especially regarding the journalists who are pretty close to "not human" here, but well.. I have a good feeling and I wish him best of luck.
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@Mindfulness I think that odds are way too low. We need to see what the transfer window will bring us.. for now, I cannot see any miracles from Lille, even though there is one of the best tacticians on their bench. Otherwise PSG, Monaco, Lyon, Marseille, Nice, Bordeaux, Nantes are all in better shape currently... even though I really don't know what to expect from Ranieri.. I went on the open training last Sunday and there was more than 2000 people... atmosphere is crazy around the club, but I want to see the way of football.. if Ranieri will try to play in "Leicester" way, than Nantes will be far from top8.
Lyon lost three/four key players (Lacazette, Tolisso, Valbuena and Gonalons) but they also brought some quality players as Marçal (IMO top3 left full back in the league), Traore (great season with Ajax).. there is still a question about the Ghezzal situation, but I think that with money from especially Tolisso&Lacazette they can still get some decent players.. I am slowly getting the whole picture in my head, but I'm not rushing as I think that many things will still change, especially in top teams. PSG is still without a signing + still holding Verratti who will leave almost for sure; Monaco still on the verge of loosing players, fighting with almost 4-5 clubs not to "steal" their talents, little bit better but still pretty similar goes also for Nice (Seri, Dealbert,...), Marseille is trying to make some decent signings (Rami, Bacca), but on the other hand they let two important players Gomis and Vainqeuer to leave.. Well.. Still too many to happen, to have a clear picture.
But once again.. no value on 2,30 for Lille top 6. For now, they are somewhere on 10th position right now. But again... they have no problems with finances..
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Lacazette officially a Gunner.
Some other bigger L1 transfers: Tolisso from Lyon to Bayern; Gomis from Marseille (Swansea) to Galatasaray; Belhanda from Nice (Dynamo Kiev) to Galatasaray...
What is also interesting.. Bielsa is bringing young talents to Lille.. Araujo (Sao Paulo), Pepe (Angers), Koffi (ASEC), Chahreddine Boukholda and Kouadio-Yves Dabila (both Monaco), Edgar Ié (Belenenses), Ballo (PSG).. will be interesting to see what will his mastermind create...
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Looks like one of young prospects.. but I haven't seen him playing as I am following only 1st division.
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Belhanda and Pereira were among the most important players of the team. In my opinion Cyprien, Belhanda, Plea and Seri were key figures for Favre.. There is also Eysseric's contract in "the air", as he is currently a free agent, central defender Baysse will leave as well.. but they are working on bringing in some quality players anyway.
P.s. With next season.. H2h will be more important than a goal difference in France as well.
Ligue 1 & 2 Predictions > Oct 13th - 15th
in French Football Predictions
Posted
Why are everyone saying that Girotto is key holding midfielder?
He is the worst midfielder in this team IMO.
Don't get me wrong, I am not against the bet. I expect Bordeaux to win the match too, but not even slightly more than bookmakers do. Now even 1,60 for their win, which means approx 62,5% for their win. So approx 60/40 for Bordeaux to win/Nantes double chance.. I think that odds are set perfectly here. Nantes will probably try to close the midfield area where Bordeaux should be dominant. Malcom will be problem as well, but he is very individual player and Ranieri could isolate him.
I am still sad to see this team of Nantes, strictly holding defensive approaches and I do think that once someone will explode and "kill" them with 3-4 goals difference, but anyway I think that it won't be easy for Bordeaux.