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Pep004

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Posts posted by Pep004

    Week > May 17th - 20th

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    As I've said many times in this season, main strenght of Lorient is attack, and they need to play on great level in offence if they want to beat any team in the league. Today they will miss 2 of 3 key players in offensive part of the team, while also defence will be weaker as Ciani won't play. On the other hand Bordeaux is alraedy the team with more quality, in pretty solid form - undefeated in last 7 matches. They've beaten Lorient already in the cup and in the league match this season, so I see no reason why not to back +0,25 on Les Girondins in this duel.

    Whole analysis here: http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/05/lorient-bordeaux.html

    Week > May 17th - 20th

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted · Edited by Pep004

    "I need to say, that if PSG will win against Angers in French cup (I am sure that they will) 6th placed team will play in Europe league. Why am I saying this if Nantes is 7th? Yes, Nantes is 7th with only a point more than Saint Etienne and Rennes, but situation over Lyon and Bešiktaš is still unclear. If Lyon will be baned from UEFA competitions for 2 years as promised, then 7th place will bring you to the Europa league as well, so we cannot say that Nantes have nothing to play for!"

    Whole analysis here: http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/05/lille-nantes.html


    "I was surprised to see Monaco on odds above the even. For a team, crushing almost all the opponents in the league, against a mid-table team, who have 42 points less then them, I think that bookmakers are wrong. Even if they are already the champions, I don't believe that Jardim will send youngsters on the pitch, as it is a normal league match. Some of them will play the last match for Monaco as there is a lot of rumours about almost all the first eleven (Mbappe, Falcao, Bernardo Silva, Lemar, Bakayoko, Fabinho, Mendy, Sidibe...), but even if we'll see a little bit mixed squad, I think that Monaco still have a decent chances to win the match."

    Whole match analysis here: http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/05/rennes-monaco.html

     

    Week > May 15th - 21st

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted · Edited by Pep004

    @Teodore I like this one and as I've said before, Leicester should have big problems in defence. Are Huth and Morgan still out? 

    p.s. I have decided to take Man City -1 in first half. We'll probably see one change in the team with Pablo instead of Fernandinho on right full back position, but anyway I think that City is way better than WBA, also in pretty solid form and in Zaba's farewell from Etihad, they will destroy them. I was looking up to Man City win to nil as well (odds around 1,90) but Pinnacle isn't offering this type of bet.

    Whole analysis is posted on my site: http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/05/manchester-city-wba.html

     

    edit: WBA looks like 2nd league team today. Lack of everything. Playing with 9 players on 30-35m from their goalkeeper, and still letting so much of space in the channel.. Looks that I will beat the PL this year anyway :p 

    Week > May 15th - 21st

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    I think that I'll go with Man City first half again. This time -1, which would be a winner against Leicester as well, if Okazaki wouldn't hit a miracle.

    On the other hand, I really fancy over on Leicester-Tottenham match. As Spurs are way stronger in the box than City, this poor defence of Foxes will be exploit too many times, so.. 

    Weekend > 14th May

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    Big difference between teams, Lyon 4th, Montpellier 15th, big difference in quality of players as well and except home pitch, which is far from a "fortress" this season (1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in last 5 home matches), I cannot find not even a single thing which would be pointing on Lyon defeat today. As I said before LE match, they are doing too many mistakes in defence, but that's happening when they are under pressure. Will Montpellier press them? I am not sure. Will Lyon press Montpellier? Yes they will.

    Whole analysis here: http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/05/montpellier-lyon.html

    Champions League > May 9th & 10th

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Unfortunately it's true. With in my opinion best full backs in the world, and with currently one of top if not the best creative midfielder in the world (Isco), who is playing only because of Bale's injury (let's be honest), and with Ronaldo moved to attacker role (4-3-1-2), this Real will be seriously tough to beat. Zizou knows how vital was Makelele for their team, and that's why he is playing with Casemiro no matter what. A lots of coaches would start woth Isco, Kroos, Modric as 3 in midfield, but they would be much more vulnerable. It's true that it might be interesting if we'll see a yellow card for Casemiro in first 15mins, but for now, he was pretty lucky with referees. Well.. Even if I would like to see Buffon raising the trophy, I think that it will be really tough. Juventus allowed pretty lots of chances for Monaco..

     

    And besides.. "forcing" Atletico is nonsense. They are among the poorest teams in buildup, and it would be bad for football that team with their style would win the CL. But again, that's my point of view.

    Champions League > May 9th & 10th

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted · Edited by Pep004

    Bah... Dirar in first lineup again, and with Raggi behind him. Toure out as well, and Mendy on the bench. Obviously not fit enough. :$

    edit: maybe Sidibe will start on right anyway, and Raggi on left, as against Dortmund on first match. Anyway, with Sidibe on right, Silva will have more space and be more dangerous.

    edit2: in official lineup on uefa.com is shown, that Sidibe will be on the left and Raggi on the right. Raggi is left footed, left full back or central defender, while Sidibe is right footed, right full back/wing back. Jardim qu'est que tu fais?

    Week > May 13th -17th

    in Spanish Football Predictions

    Posted · Edited by Pep004

    I think that you mixed something ... :D Marseille? They will play in Bordeaux in next round. Otherwise Benito Villamarin (stadium of Betis) is one of the loudest stadiums in Spain, but Atletico will probably play as against Eibar. With attackers on 40m away from their goalkeeper, and using counter attacks, but it will probably be enough. They will be out of Champions league for sure, so all they need to do is to keep this 3rd place and voila.

    edit: I haven't seen any Spanish match lately.. especially not the one between Leganes and Betis. You were really bored with Chelsea, so you just switched to La Liga huh? :p 

    Champions League > May 9th & 10th

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    My point of view on Champions league - Juventus vs Monaco

     
    Screen%2BShot%2B2017-05-09%2Bat%2B14.58.47.png
     
    Let's start with some facts:
     
    Juventus:
    - this is second semi final of Juventus in last 3 seasons!
    - Juventus was knocked out only once in last 6 semi finals.
    - Juventus and Real Madrid are the only unbeaten teams in this season's CL.
    - Juventus conceded only two goals in this season's CL and none of them have come through open play.
    - Higuain has most prolific campaign of his career in Champions league, as he has scored 5 goals in this season.
     
    Monaco:
    - they have reached fourth semi final of Champions league. No other French team has made the last four more than once.
    - Mbappe and Falcao have scored 10 of past 16 CL goals.
    - In the first leg, Mbappe failed to score for the first time after having started a match in the Champions league.
    - Monaco have never won in Italy in seven trips. They lost all except one match.
     
    Match facts:
    - Juventus have kept a clean sheet in their last 6 matches in Champions league.
    - Juventus are undefeated in their last 13 matches in Champions league.
    - There have been under 2,5 goals scored in 5 of Juventus's last 6 games.
    - No side has ever overturned 2 goal first-leg loss in semis.
    - Monaco haven't won any of three away matches in CL semis.
     
    Screen%2BShot%2B2017-05-09%2Bat%2B15.12.19.png
     
    Juventus have won the first leg with 0-2 and Monaco is in front of mission impossible. We have seen some great come backs in this season of Champions league, but is it possible to do it against the as organised team as Juventus is? In my opinion, the biggest problem of Monaco is, that they have problems with injuries on most important positions of the team. Sidibe and Mendy are key players of the team, and last Champions league match, where they were both able to participate was against Manchester City. They passed BVB, but Juventus is much stronger, especially when it comes to discipline and positioning in defence. 
     
    Screen%2BShot%2B2017-05-09%2Bat%2B15.55.45.png
     
    First match: As mentioned Juve won 0-2, but key point was in my opinion idea of Allegri. He surprised with 3-4-3 formation, with Dybala dropping deep in midfield and as Sidibe (left back this time) stayed on his position to cover man of the match for me Dani Alves, Bakayoko needed to stay with Dybala, and because of that Pjanić had an easy job in midfield. He played as maestro, but he was practically free. He was delivering passes from side to side, feeding attackers, wingers, everyone on the pitch. Monaco needed time to adapt to surprise of Allegri. Even Lemar was coming inside to cover midfield of Juventus, but in this case Alves was even more free on "his highway" on right flank. When it looked that Monaco succeeded with adapting to Italians tactic, Dani Alves made his run, and let the ball for Higuain, who took advantage of sleepy Bakayoko and scored. Monaco didn't play bad. They created some decent chances, and they could easily score, but it wasn't their best day in the box. Falcao scored from impossible positions in this season, but he didn't succeed to beat Buffon. Despite the age of Mbappe, he was most dangerous man of Monaco. He had some great moves, but his tries were stopped by amazing Gigi as well. Second goal came after another mistake of Bakayoko, who was pressed by Dani Alves in midfield, and right before the end of the action, Alves assisted Gonzalo for second goal of the match. Once again, we cannot say that Monaco played bad. Both goals came after counter attack of Juventus, but their defence was beaten few times, and if Monaco's conversion rate would be on the level as it was on previous matches, they would have scored maybe even twice. In my opinion, Jardim made mistake with Dirar on RB position. Sidibe is much more dangerous on his, right side, and Almamy Toure is highly capable of playing on LB, even though he is right full back as well. Monaco's amazing tactics were crushed because of that, and their full backs weren't as dangerous as we were used to see in previous matches. Dirar is more or less winger and he had a lot of problems with both - Mandžukić and Sandro and as Bernardo Silva was the guy in front of him, physically both Juventus players were in big advantage.
     
    Screen%2BShot%2B2017-05-09%2Bat%2B15.24.25.png
     
    What can we expect today? For me, the biggest question is if Mendy will be prepared to play or not. That would mean that both of them (Sidibe) would be on their positions and with their pace, strength, and ability to move forward both wing backs of Juventus - Alves and Sandro will need to be much more focused on defensive assignments, while on the other hand there will be more space for individual actions of Lemar and especially Bernardo Silva. Monacao succeeded to make Higuain look terrible in start of the match, but they made to many mistakes in positioning and Argetinian took an advantage of that. And now Bakayoko. His goal against Man City brought them to quarter finals, his performances in this season were amazing till first leg against Juventus, and he will need to prove that it was just a bad day for him, because he shown all his weaknesses in this match. He was more or less responsible for both goals of Juventus and if there were clubs, willing to give 50M and more for this player,  now they are in big doubts about it. He has chance to prove his quality and as he was rested in league, I am pretty sure that he will start the match, even if right after first-leg I thought that experienced Moutinho will play in his role on second match. Juventus have everything in hands. I wouldn't be surprised if they will show up with similar lineup, but with much more defensive oriented Alex Sandro and Dani Alves, so their lineup will look more like 5-4-1, maybe even with Cuadrado in front of Dani Alves, as Columbian played great in defensive role against Barcelona. Khedira is coming back as well, so Allegri will have some options more for midfield. Of course Juventus is stronger and especially more experienced squad which knows how to take advantage of a bad moment of opponent, and that's the biggest problem for Monaco. As I said right after the draw for semis, Monaco will face the toughest opponent for them. Both teams for Madrid would be easier matchup for their style. 
     
    Screen%2BShot%2B2017-05-09%2Bat%2B15.50.09.png
     
     
    What to bet? As you I believe, you are already used to... I won't have any official pick on Champions league. Especially not in this stage of tournament. Odds 1,70 looks pretty solid for Juventus, but I cannot drop the feeling, that Monaco exposed them too many times in the first match, where they weren't on their level. If Jardim will have Mendy back, I am pretty sure that they will cause them even bigger problems and then, even against almighty defence of Juventus, everything can happen. If Mendy will play, I would go with Monaco to score, but odds are simply too low. Looks that bookmakers are afraid of Monaco goal as well. Pinnacle is offering @1,826 for Monaco to score more than 0,75 goals, which means that they need to score twice, that bet is completely won. Is value in opposite site? Maybe, but I wouldn't risk with that.
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