Pep004
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Posts posted by Pep004
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Tough to say something smart, regarding odds. I don't know Bristol at all, but if they will succeed to play compact and very well organized defensively, they might hold for the first half. But deeper in the match we'll go, more mistakes I expect from their side in positioning, bigger holes for Citizens to attack and sooner or deeper Bristol should crash.
It's possible to get @2,00 for City -1,5 in the second half. Any thoughts?
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Barcelona v Levante; 16:15
Barcelona will miss defender Umtiti, suspended midfielder Busquets, injured Turan and forwards Paco and Deulofeu.
Levante will miss defender Chema, midfielders Morales, Bardhi, and Campaña and forwards Alegria and Marti.
Short preview: as you can see Levante is coming in Barcelona without three important midfielders and regular defender, so on first hand, we could say that their level of creativity will be pretty low, but knowing Levante, the main problem will be that they cannot count on three important players in line whose primary goal was to create a decent block and help defensive line behind them. They conceded only a goal in last three away matches and I expect them to come on Camp Nou with a totally defensive-oriented team. Barcelona will miss suspended Busquets which probably means that buildup will be slower, but Rakitić played solid on this position last time. Anyway, I expect Levante to drop really deep and if Barcelona won't score some silly goals, I think that this match will stay under 4 goals. I've been looking at Barcelona win with clean sheet, but odds are pretty low (1,70) so I suggest under 4,5 at 1,85.
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8 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:
Always such an underrated bet the Draw/Win for favourites, and a bet I'm a huge fan of.
I agree, and I really like bets on underdogs too, but I think that there are too many "mismatches" between those two teams. If Girona can perform defensively, everything is possible, even an away win, but I think that they are too offensive minded. I expect to see plenty of goals in this one, something like 2-1/3-1.
Good luck to everyone.
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Missing players, short previews and betting suggestions on other La Liga matches of 18th round are available here: https://footalyct.com/spa-la-liga-18th-round/
Las Palmas v Eibar; 18:30
Las Palmas will miss defenders Michel, Galvez, midfielder Aquillani and forwards Remy and Tannane.
Eibar is coming without reserve goalkeeper Yoel, defender Junca and midfielders Fran Rico and Pedro Leon, who are out from the start of the season.
Short preview: new coach of Las Palmas is Paco Jemez who is known by style with high pressing and possession football. Even if winning or losing, he is demanding his teams to play high and offensive. Eibar is a team who won't mind about not being in possession, but they are very dangerous on flanks, especially from counters and in attack they have two very strong individuals in Enrich and Charles. I expect Las Palmas to play, create chances, also score a goal, but on the other hand, concede at least one so I suggest both teams to score here with odds around 1,70 or even over 2,5 with odds around 1,85. Some bookies are offering both together and there is a value at odds around 2,05 as well.
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Missing players, short previews and betting suggestions on other Serie A matches of 20th round are available here: https://footalyct.com/ita-serie-20th-round/
Benevento v Sampdoria; 15:00
Benevento will miss defenders Lazaar, Antei, midfielders Cataldi, Ciciretti and forwards Parigini, Iemmello.
Sampdoria is coming without defender Strinić, midfielders Đuričić, Capezzi and Alvarez.
Short preview: After three consecutive defeats both teams bounced back with a win in last round. Benevento succeeded with first Serie A win against Chievo while Sampdoria defeated SPAL in last minutes of the match. Comparing those two teams, there is still a big quality difference and I see Sampdoria as a winner today. Last round my suggestion was Benevento Asian totals under 1 at home but odds were much better last round as they played against Chievo. Still, you can get odds around 2,00 for Benevento to stay under 1 (exact 1 goal means that you will get your money back). Benevento will miss two regular midfielders Cataldi and Ciciretti while except full back Strinić, manager of Sampdoria has no troubles with team selection. Offensive trio in Quagliarella, Caprari, and Ramirez behind them should be enough for all three points. So suggestions are two – Sampdoria -0,5 with odds around 2,10 and Benevento totals under 1 with odds around 2.
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All other picks for 20th round of Serie A will be uploaded on: https://footalyct.com/ita-serie-20th-round/
Chievo v Udinese; 18:00
Chievo will miss defender Gamberini, midfielder Castro and forward Meggiorini.
Udinese will miss defenders Ali Adnan, Angella, midfielder Behrami and forward Matos.
Short preview: Since Oddo is sitting on the bench of Udinese, they climbed on the 7th spot with 5 wins in a row but in my opinion, their run will stop tonight in Verona. Chievo, on the other hand, is in miserable form, winning only a point in last 5 matches, losing against both "Serie B" teams Benevento and Crotone but still - the only point they have won was against Roma at home. Statistical facts are going against the home team here, but I think that Udinese simply isn't a team big enough to win 6 matches in a row in Serie A. Injured Adnan played a pretty important role in Oddo's team, and it won't be easy to replace him. Even though most of the tipsters are taking a straightaway win here, I would suggest Chievo +0,25 at odds around 1,83.
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14 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Mourinho has found it easy up until recent years. Something damaged him at Real Madrid. He had a new lease of life on his return to Chelsea but it didn't last long. He can't handle being the runner-up (or worse!). The one thing Sir Alex Ferguson knew was how to come back from losing a title. I'm not sure Mourinho has the humility to learn from his mistakes. I'm sure they will get a Champions League spot this season and might even win a trophy but the league has gone. This Manchester City side isn't like the Newcastle side of 1995/96. It won't break.
I have feeling that when in "losing" position, he is using same tactics all the time and I think that Guardiola has learned a lot from Barca/Real times, so he won't react at all in my opinion. Some statements of Mourinho lately are unbelievable so it's really tough to love him. Still, I know some players being coached by him and they all said that what he is saying in media is far from the situation in the locker room. That he is very realistic, and trying to do his best - but always using media as a strong weapon, always two-three steps in front of them.
What bothers me are some of his acts lately and that's why even though I want to give him a credit and respect his work (especially due to all trophies) I think that he is simply "losing it". I am seriously doubtful about seeing him as ManU manager next season. IMO his place is in Serie A as in Inter, Milan, probably even Juventus, no one will bother his style, but ManU fans are far from happy - even though they are 4 places higher than last season. As Scholes said, where is the difference between Rashford & Martial and Sane & Sterling? I think that only in freedom and confidence. I do agree about the second thing said by Scholes as well - position of Pogba. He is simply too deep! I am still saying that he is one of most talented, gifted football players in the world. But sitting deep, playing 1-2 and sending diagonals, that's not a role for him. Deschamps is something doing something similar in the national team, but still, Pogba has much more freedom there. Moreover, Martial... I hope that he will join one "attractive" side that haters will see his potential. Simply, ManU squad is superior, but Mou is acting like if they cannot compete with top 6 in the league, so second place is only because of his tactics.
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Mourinho:"Guardiola works with unlimited money. We don't have that luxury"
They have spent almost 700 M in last few seasons ...
I know that he is just playing his "mind" games with current leaders, trying to kick them out of the rhythm but he should rather try with his team. 
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I won't bet anything on this one because there will be some pressure on the team as it is very important to bounce back, but well... I do understand what you're trying to say, but on the other hand, style of City doesn't suit Watford and last 3 h2h matches are proving that (2-0, 0-6, 0-5). Hope that we'll see another interesting match. I was really impressed by Crystal Palace.
(except the foul on KdB)
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As I know, Deeney is still suspended and I think that Watford won't have any chance on Etihad.
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David Silva and John Stones are back for tonight. Without Jesus and KDB Citizens aren't the same team, but buildup with Stones will be way faster while creativity level will be boosted by Silva. He is still one of most underrated players in the league IMO.
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I think that hectic schedule will affect Crystal Palace way more than Citizens and that's why I still think that there is no value opposing them. You are losing much 9more energy playing defensively, covering holes, running left, right, trying to get in possession and immediately after doing few counters on full speed ... I didn't check numbers, but I am pretty convinced that Eagles ran much more than Citizens and things like that might affect matches in this period.
From the lineup, we can see that Pep wants to be in lead as soon as possible because he knows that being a goal in front in last 15-20 minutes is a total coin flip on Selhurst Park. Odds around 1,75 seems fine, but I think that we might see them on 1,85+ in first 5 minutes.
edit: injured central defender Dann will be substituted ... Even though things weren't as good as expected from City, I am taking @2,28 for them to win 1st half.
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Newcastle vs Brighton; 16:00
Newcastle will miss defenders Ljeune, Gamez and forward Mitrović, while midfielder Hayden might return to the squad.
Brihgton is coming only without long term injured midfielder Sidwell.
Short preview: fans of Premier League were saying that performance of Newcastle against Manchester City was disgrace for English football, as Benitez sent a bus on the pitch, playing in ultra defensive formation with 5 defenders and mainly defensive minded players higher on the pitch. As he said on press conference he knew that it’s impossible to open up against Citizens right now and second, he was already thinking about next matches and honestly said that match against Brighton is way more important for them. Fans didn’t react badly on his “bus tactics” but they won’t be happy to see unattractive Newcastle today. Against City he decided to rest almost all important creative players, so they are coming in match without tired legs – Ritchie, Merino, Hayden, Atsu, Gayle.. Anyway I found value on odds 2,02 for Newcastle team totals over 1,25 goals!
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Footalyct.com -> Providing short previews, missing players and betting suggestions on top 5 leagues!
Benevento vs Chievo; 15:00
Benevento is coming without defenders Lazaar, Antei and forward Iemmello. Defender Letizia is doubtful.
Chievo is coming without defender Gamberini, midfielder Castro and forward Meggiorini.
Short preview: both teams are struggling lately, losing 4 and drawing 1 in last 5 rounds. Well, it's hard to say that Benevento is struggling lately, as this draw against Milan was their one and only point in this season, so we could say that there is improvement for them, but realistically they are still by far the worst team in Serie A and Chievo should take advantage of that. Currently sitting on 13th position with 21 points they are only 6 points above relegation zone and matches as this one will be are must win matches for them. Even though Benevento scored once on 3 of last 5 matches, twice on 1 and stayed without a goal at home only once I think that there is value on Benevento team totals under 1 - odds around 2,30! In case of exact 1 goal scored, prediction is voided. They scored only 9 goals this season, they are still without important forward Iemmello and I cannot see them creating too many opportunities today. They scored 2 against Milan, 1 against Lazio and 1 against Inter, which is just a prove that they are "flying high" against better teams when motivation ratio is the highest. Today, they will play against Chievo where they know that they could get something and that's why I see this match as a "underish" game, where both teams will be mainly focused on not conceding a goal. Of course everything can change with an early goal, but Chievo isn't a team playing open football, they already lost against Crotone (1-o) so it's a very important match for them.
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Ups, didn't notice that I posted it in wrong thread. Well, if it's possible admin can move it here.
Other matches I've been thinking about are:
Southampton +1,5 1,86.. I guess Man U is simply having a wrong manager to create a lot of chances. Mourinho proved everywhere that he is a magician when it comes to defensive approaches, beating teams with counters, but players as Pogba, Martial, Mata.. I feel really pity for them, because in this team they can only disappear. They are without freedom and you can already notice the drop in their creativity level. Theater of dream will soon become a theater of horror, because their football is simply nonsense. Tell me one god damn player who improved under him last year.. As I have few good friends who are United friends and even if they were all saying "wait for a year, wait for a year,.." Well, year is around and? Except some exceptional individual moves, they are without idea in attack. And don't get me wrong, there are successful have teams playing defensively, but this Man United is using 30% of their potential. It really hurts to see creative players like Mata, Martial, Pogba, and some others dying in this "I don't know what" game. I understand Mou's plans, but what I don't is, why is he buying players like this.
e: I forgot to mention Ander Herrera. People on the island are laughing from him, saying how useless he is.. dear lord.
And about +1,5.. van Dijk, Soares and Bertrand are out for Southampton, so there is probably no value. Any thoughts?
N'castle -0,5 @2,2 .. Even though I don't like low odds, I think that Magpies simply need to play football this time. People were disappointed with their approach against City, but Benitez rested almost all important offensive players, while he stayed in the game till the last minute.
Also Burnley +0,25 looks interesting..
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Liverpool vs Leicester; 16:00
Short preview: Everyone will think about goals in this one, for those who have over 2,5 & both teams to score on your bookmaker, I agree that 1,90 looks very good for this option. But looking at winner’s market – odds are giving Liverpool more than 75% chances for winning this match, so in my opinion value is on away side. Odds for Leicester not to lose are close to 3,80 on some bookmakers and without doubt there is value but I prefer to take asian handicap +1,75 with odds around 1,90. Let me explain why am I thinking in this way. Of course Liverpool have an amazing squad, full of attacking potential but their problem is defence. They are almost always using high pressing and regarding that they will play at home I am sure that they will play in their way. Sturridge is doubtful, which means that we can expect both Mane and Salah on the pitch, but both are extremely fast players, who’s perfect opponent is a team who is letting space behind the defensive line. I am certain that Leicester won’t come too high, that they will sit deep, compact and try to exploit their chances with Vardy and Mahrez on counters or with big guys Morgan and Maguire from indirect set-pieces. Leicester’s style simply isn’t the one Liverpool would like to play against. Everything will depend on how those teams will come into the match. Leicester lost two of last three matches while Liverpool scored 12 on last three matches, so form is pointing on home side but once again, I think that Foxes are underrated team here. If they will force their style to Liverpool and match will depend more on winning second balls, harsh duels in midfield, than everything can happen. Liverpool will be the one with more possession and more chances created, but Foxes love to play against teams with high line of defence so..
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Footalyct/blog -> providing short previews, missing players and betting suggestions on top 5 leagues!
Crotone vs Napoli; 20:45
Crotone will miss suspended regular defender Ajeti and injured Pavlovic, midfielders Nallini, Izco and forward Tumminello.
Napoli is coming without suspended defender Rui, injured full back Ghoulam and forward Milik.
Short preview: Crotone is in terrible form, loosing 5 of last 6 matches. On last home match they won against Chievo, but two home matches earlier they were defeated by Udinese (0-3) and Genoa (0-1). Today they will play against league leaders Napoli who bounced back after dropping points against Fiorentina (0-0). With win in Torino (1-3) they proved me a lot and I expect them winning last match in 2017 without bigger problems. They were playing with fire against Sampdoria at home and I expect a clearer victory here as Crotone with 15 points in 18 rounds is far from Sampdoria’s quality level. Without doubt upsets are something usual in winter days but Crotone is on south of Italy and weather isn’t problematic at all (around 10°C expected at 20:45). Crotone in average have only 40% of possession, so we can expect this number even lower today. Their passing accuracy is under 70% and due to high pressing of Napoli it will be lower tonight as well. Napoli conceded some goals after losing aerial duels, but Crotone isn’t a team who could endanger them in this aspect of football. I predict that possession will be heavily on side of Napoli and that they will create a much more chances than the home side. Odds are a bit low, but there is still some value on Napoli to win first half – around 1,70, while you can get asian handicap -0,75 with odds close to 2,00. If you can get half-time/full-time option above 1,80 it looks decent as well.
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Virgil van Dijk will join Liverpool.
Besides.. Surprised to see Aguero in first lineup instead of Jesus. But I am almost certain that we'll see a sub. Aguero-Jesus around 60th minute. Sounds like more goals in second half / under in first half?
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Problem for them will be, that Jesus will almost sure start in front of Kun this time and with Gabriel their offensive pressing is way sharper. A question for this match is how long will Magpies stay in the game. Obviously a scored goal could help, but main thing will be how to avoid doing mistakes while Citizens will press their defence.
City had 2 days off (24/25) so match preparation wasn't the same as before, they might be somehow out of rituals, rhythm, but still.. they are way too good. Playing with patience and confidence. I would like to see higher odds to go against them.
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Manchester City vs Bournemouth; 16:00
Manchester City will miss defenders Stones, Mendy and midfielder Foden, while defender Kompany and midfielder David Silva are doubtful.
Bournemouth is coming without reserve goalkeeper Federici, defenders Mings, Smith, midfielder Arter and key forward Defoe. Moreover defender Daniels and forward King are doubtful.
Short preview: Manchester City is playing on fire! They are netting a win after win and everything should stay the same after this match versus Bournemouth. They are coming in Manchester without experienced striker Defoe and with doubtful King, so their offensive strength will be reduced. City played penalties in Carabao cup, but Guardiola rotated his squad heavily, giving a chance to several young players and we can expect the strongest possible lineup with KDB this time. Two picks looks decent here - Man City to win first halftime with asian handicap -1,25 with odds around 2,10 and Man City to win to nil with odds around 1,90.
Read other short previews on tomorrow's matches of Premier League here: footalyct.com
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Arsenal vs Liverpool; 20:45
Arsenal will miss midfielders Ramsey, Cazorla and forward Giroud. Defensive midfielder Coquelin is doubtful.
Liverpool is coming without reserve goalkeeper Bogdan, defenders Moreno, Clyne, midfielder Grujić and having forward Sturridge and defender Matip doubtful.
Short preview: The fact that Arsenal will miss their target man Olivier Giroud who picked up an injury against West Ham isn’t really bothering me as I think that Lacazette can offer this team much more than Olivier. We’ll probably see Iwobi joining the offensive trio with Alexis and Özil and Mustafi coming back in the defensive line which will probably be with 4 players – with Monreal and Bellerin as full backs. Liverpool on the other hand is having their main offensive players in very good shape, they are creating plenty of chances per game and even if they failed to score against WBA, they created totally enough to score at least 2-3 goals. Even though they conceded only 2 goals in last 5 matches, their opponents weren’t neither really offensive minded, neither on their level. Arsenal is much stronger in attack and I think that neither of those two teams cannot afford to play defensively in this match, because they will concede sooner or later. I expect both teams playing offensive and that’s why I suggest goal line over 3 with odds between 1,85 and 1,90.
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Espanyol – Atletico Madrid; 21:30
Espanyol is coming without suspended midfielder Victor Sanchez and injured Jurado and Diop.
Atletico Madrid will miss only defender Gimenez.
Short preview: I suggest odds on Atletico -0,5 around 1,80 as soon as possible, because I think that we’ll see them at 1,70 tomorrow. Atletico finally having right full back positioned fit and Vrsaljko played amazing match last time. Espanyol is a team who know to fire things up to big teams in the league, but right now I cannot see them as a big threat against this Atletico side. Besides, Rojiblancos are in pretty good form lately, winning 4 and drawing 1 in last 5 matches. Thanks to good form they jumped on 2nd place of La Liga and with El Clasico on schedule this Saturday they have a chance or make a bigger difference with Real Madrid or close the gap with Barcelona. They won both last matches with only a goal difference but still with clean sheet and that’s simply Atleti style. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar as only Leganes scored less goals than Espanyol this season.
Read other informations & betting suggestions on https://footalyct.com/blog/
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What do you have to do to receive red card in PL? Some fouls are absurd in this match...
p.s. wtf Sterling? you drunk?
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Your sentence is bothering me..
8 hours ago, Mindfulness said:In terms of general play there is not much between the two sides but Leicester are just better at either end of the pitch.
That's why I am thinking about Swansea... "Bipolar" Everton cannot have odds bellow 1,65 against anyone right now.
EFL Cup Predictions > Jan 9th & 10th
in FA Cup & Other Cup Predictions
Posted
"Easy peasy".
