Pep004
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Posts posted by Pep004
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Malaga v Levante; 21:00
Malaga will miss defenders Juan Carlos and Miguel Torres and midfielders Ricca and Kuzmanović. Two important players – midfielder Recio and defender Baysse are doubtful and will probably stay out of the action tonight.
Levante is coming without defenders Rober and Lopez, midfielders Dokouré, Lerma and Lukić and forwards Alegria and Roger Marti.
Short preview: I need to say that I fancy odds on Levante not to lose here – odds around 2,25. Odds dropped pretty heavily on home side and I am not saying that they aren’t favourites tonight, they are but not as big as bookmakers are showing right now in my opinion. Malaga had terrible results and they are currently sitting on positions for relegation with 5 points behind the 17th place Deportivo La Coruña. Levante is even three points higher than Depor, and they are typical tough team, capable of surprising every single team in the league. Postigo and Chema will probably play back together on central positions of defence and with them Levante will be more compact. They are usually playing very defensively, with defensive line very low and with low possession, trying to surprise with quick counters. They lost only one of last 5 away matches.
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Real Betis v Cadiz; 21:30
Setien cannot count on defenders Feddal and Amat, midfielder Fabian and forwards Sanabria (1st goalscorer), Campbell and Guerrero.
Alvaro is coming without first goalkeeper Cifuentes, defenders Carpio, Bijker, Villanueva, Correa and Sankare, midfielder Jose Mari and attackers Carrillo and Perea.
Short preview: First match ended with 1-2 win of Betis who is with two away goals with one leg already in next leg of competition. Both teams are from Andalusia, so there will be so called “special” moment, especially for Cadiz who is in Segunda and will try to prove their qualities on Benito Villamarin stadium. Of course Betis is favourite here with odds around 1,65 but as they will try to take points from Canary Islands in 3 days, we can expect some rotations by Setien but I think that anyway not too many of them. They are without a single win in last 4 matches and even though it is a cup match they have a chance to gain some confidence. True that Cadiz isn’t conceding a lot of goals but that counts for Segunda. They are meeting a 8th placed team from Primera, who scored at least two goals on last 7 matches so I am suggesting Betis team totals over 1,75 with odds around 1,85 here.
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wtf is happening with Sterling lately?
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Unexpected. Football simple. I can admit that I was sure in high win of OL today.
p.s. Allez Nantes!!!
Totally deserved win! Monaco was horrible tonight! What the hell is happening with this team.. 
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Everton v West Ham; 21:00
Everton will miss bunch of players. In goal they miss Stekelenburg, in defensive line they are without Baines, Keane, Coleman, Funes Mori, in midfield McCarthy, Barkley and Bolasie and in forward line without best goalscorer Niasse who is suspended. Besides all of that, defender Holgate recently picked up an injury and is doubtful for today.
West Ham will miss midfielder Antonio, defenders Fonte and Collins and Chicharito. Arnautović remains doubtful for tonight.
Short preview: With so many problems in every single line, even though some of injuries are there from the start of the season I cannot see Everton keeping a clean sheet against West Ham right now. In last 6 matches they conceded only one goal only once, while other 5 matches finished with at least two goals in their net. Moreover, Atalanta and Arsenal scored 5 times. With Lanzini, Ayew, Carroll and others, West Ham have more than enough of attacking potential to score at least once. I expect huge problems for The Toffees in aerial duels as well. I found value on West Ham team totals over 1 with odds on 1,90.
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Having bunch of injured players.. I don't know honestly. It's true that odds are jumping high, but Nantes under Claudio is made in the way to play matches like this. They still miss Krhin, which means that defensively and tactically midfield won't be on the same level, but they might surprise Monaco. Anyway, odds are pretty fine here and I think that there is no value. I think that Nantes have little bit better chances not to lose than Monaco have to win, so exactly what odds are showing..
Even though football isn't amazing here, people are crazy about Ranieri and I expect good support from the crowd.
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I was wondering if Pellegrino is trying to get his team to play with possession and high pressing, because if they were working on that then I think difference in quality will destroy them. Odds on City first half are very good to me.. I am pretty sure that we'll see Jesus instead of Aguero today, but I am wondering if Pep is planning to give a rest to KDB...
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Is anyone closely following Southampton under Pellegrino? How do they play?
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Watford v Manchester United; 21:00
Watford has defender Britos doubtful, while all other injured players are long term injuries (Chalobah, Success, Kaboul, Hoban, Catchart).
Manchester United is still without midfielder Carrick and defender Jones, while Eric Bailly has some injury concerns and remains doubtful for tonight.
Short preview: we can expect very interesting match on Vicarage Road stadium tonight as Watford found their form – beating West Ham with 2-0 and Newcastle with 0-3. This time opponent will be much tougher but MUFC have already shown that they aren’t unbeatable, especially on the road and especially against teams like Watford. They lost 3 of last 5 away matches, won only 4 of last 9 and I wouldn’t let Watford totally without chances here. Asian handicap +1 on Watford with odds around 1,70. Asian handicap means that pick will be voided in case of exactly 1 goal win of Man United.
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Atalanta will miss defender Spinazzola who participated on 6 matches this season.
Benevento will miss bunch of players. Two very important names on the list are midfielder Ciciretti and forward Iemmello. Besides them, coach cannot count on 3 defenders. Two are suspended but with different reasons: regular defender Letizia due to cards, Lucioni due to positive doping tests and injured Lazaar. List of missing players is finished with second attacker – Parigini. All together they will miss players who scored 4 goals while whole team succeeded to score only 6 times this season.
Short preview: As you saw above, Benevento who is already by far the worse team in Serie A – 13 defeats in 13 matches with 33 goals conceded, is coming to Bergamo who recently won against Everton in Liverpool with 1-5 without several important players. Even though they played solid two matches lately I think that with so many problems with squad they will find themselves in tough position. Atalanta played without Iličić on the bench as both were only one yellow away from suspension, so he is fresh, rested and probably coming back to first 11 today. With scoring 5 on Goodison Park, where Everton by the way played with Rooney, Mirallas, Klaasen and Sandro Ramirez they are coming back on Stadio Atleti Azzuri d’Italia and as they are on winless road in Serie A for 3 matches in row (Udinese, SPAL, Inter) I expect them to bounce back strongly and jump two places higher on the league table. This time I decided to suggest half-time/full time option on Atalanta with odds around 1,70.
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Valencia v Barcelona; 20:45
Valencia will be without coach Marcelino on their bench as he had been suspended. Otherwise they will miss defender Murillo and midfielder Maksimović.
Barça is coming with several problems. Due to suspicious yellow card, they will miss defender Pique. Besides him, Valverde cannot count on injured defender Mascherano, midfielders Sergi Roberto, Rafinha, Arda, Gomes and forward Dembele.
Short preview: Leo Messi extended his contract so Barça fans finally heard one good news after a while. Let’s be honest, their style is unknown right now. For the first time, they played 2 consecutive 0-0 in Champions league. Barcelona played 0-0 twice! Can you imagine that 4-5 years ago? No one can. Buildup is poor, second and third best players of the team are goalkeeper Ter Stegen and defender Umtiti, which isn’t normal for a team as Barcelona is. With Suarez totally out of form (please don’t count lucky goals), everything totally depends on Leo and even he isn’t at his best recently. He has been rested in first half during the week but I think that people aren’t giving enough credits to Valencia. They are amazing this season. They finally found a good, quality manager and with squad with lots of potentials combined with experienced players they are showing that they are capable of surprises. They knew to surprise Barcelona in much worse situations while now Barça will have serious problems in defence as Umtiti is only regular defender available. Will Valverde give a chance to Vermaelen? We’ll see but one thing is clear, Valencia not to lose (+0,5) with odds above 2,10 sounds too good not to take. Don’t get me wrong, this is Barcelona and with Messi on the pitch they can beat everyone, but right now this Valencia is in my opinion much bigger threat than bookies are showing to us. I wouldn’t touch Barcelona below 2,00.
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2 hours ago, andrewcalo said:
I'm actually thinking along the same lines, every month there's a surprising nil-nil featuring one of the big boys...but I am looking at Chelsea Liverpool, look at the stats @Pep004, what do you reckon?
Man City game will be a goal fest, for sure.
Arsenal Burley is another possibility, but I have a feeling Arsenal will get a win there...
Yes, they have rested Sane during the midweek so their "electricity" will be back in attack. Probably we'll see Kun on the bench which is one hand even worse for Huddersfield as City will play with enormous pressing, while on the other hand.. Aguero is the player who can decide tough matches so it will be interesting to see their lineup.
And yes, even though it sounds unrealistic it's maybe not stupid to seek for goalless draw on matches where odds are higher. I've never tried something like that and I never will, but I need to admit that it sounds interesting.
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@andrewcalo interesting thoughts. What about Huddersfield - City 0-0?
Hard to believe but...
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Chievo – SPAL; 18:00
Chievo will miss suspended and injured midfielders Radovanović and Castro.
Spal with plenty of problems in the squad. Defenders Costa, Oikonomou and less important Della Giovanna, midfielder Viviani and forwards Boriello and Antenucci are out for today. Regular defender Salamon is still doubtful.
Short preview: Chievo is as usual sitting in the middle of the table and recently they played two draws against Torino away and at home against league leaders Napoli. 2 matches before they were trashed by Milan and Sampdoria with 1-4 and 4-1 and I believe that it’s time for a win. Both teams are mainly picking points at home, especially SPAL who won only two points in 6 away matches this season. Right now they are only a point above the relegation zone and still amongst contenders to go back in Serie B. Without experienced striker Boriello, their strength in attack is reduced and I see value on odds around 1,90 on Chievo.
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Tottenham v WBA; 16:00
Tottenham will miss defender Alderweireld and midfielder Wanyama.
WBA will come without ex Spurs player midfielder Chadli, other mf Morrison and defender Craig Dawson.
Short preview: After beating BVB in Dortmund, Spurs can be even more confident. They are playing with high morale and even if they lost last PL match, actually a derby against Arsenal, I am sure that they will bounce back strongly. WBA is on a 10 match winless road and I hardly believe that they can change anything here. Megson will be in charge of Baggies after they sacked Tony Pulis, but again I totally understand why are odds as short as 1,25 on Spurs win. Spurs to be in lead already before the half time with odds around 1,70.
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Celta de Vigo vs Leganes
Celta will for sure miss defender Gómez, while defender Roncaglia and offensive midfielder Mor are under the question mark.
Coach of Leganes won’t be able to count on attacker Beauvue who have scored two goals this season as he is loaned from Celta. Besides him out are midfielder Ramos and goalkeeper Serantes.
Short preview: Generally I am not counting on performances of teams as Leganes against top teams, but against Barcelona they simply impressed me. They lost 0-3, but situation on the pitch was totally different. With little bit of luck result could be totally different, but well – that’s football. With Amrabat, Guerrero and Szymanowski they will be a threat for Unzue’s Celta. Roncaglia is doubtful, Gomez out, so looks that he will need to find the way without two regular defenders and I think that over 2,5 with odds around 2,15 represents some value.
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For me it's always tough to bet on a team who creates nothing. They are letting lots of space in defence and if Lille played little bit more focused in final third, they could be leading for a goal or even two in last match.. but then, long ball of goalkeeper, low cross, somehow stopped ball from target man and pass on the side and ball finished in the goal. All you need to do is to mark Kakuta. Without him, creation of Amiens is below 0. They have some fast players, capable of scoring, but without pass of Kakuta.. nothing will happen. On other hand I agree that odds are ridiculous on Metz. Another poor team, maybe the worse at the moment. They took a point in Toulouse, but it should be 3-0 instead. If anything, then you cannot put money on Metz. But I think that bookmakers are doing exactly that - lettin little bit lower odds on Metz, "offering" value on away side and at the end.. Metz will luckily win.
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Lyon vs Apollon; 21:00
Bruno Genesio will miss winger Cornet and midfielders Ferri and Grenier.
Guests are coming in Lyon without major absences.
Short preview: Lyon failed to win at home against Montpellier, but they were without their leader Fekir who is probably coming back to the lineup today. They are fighting with Atalanta for first place in the group and I see no problems for them against much weaker side. Apollon will try to count on their defensive strength but as they equalised in 93rd minute in first match I believe that Lyon will try come to match eager of goals. In case of draw against Atalanta in next round, goal difference will decide the winner and Lyon have proven that they are a goal machine this season so I expect them to explode today. Lyon -2 with odds above 2,00!
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My pick is red as well, even though Wolfsburg missed the penalty.
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I am praying that Lille will wait with sacking Bielsa at least till Lille will come to Nantes. I want to see this coach on La Beaujoire!
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Schalke - Wolfsburg / PICK: over 2,5 @2,01 PINNACLE
Interesting match will be played on Veltins Arena where Schalke is expecting Wolfsburg. That will be an encounter of two very offensive minded teams and that's why I was slightly surprised seeing odds above 2 on more than 2,5 goals here. Camacho is out at Wolfsburg, while Goretzka is questionable for Schalke. Both teams still have plenty of quality players especially in attack. Schalke is standing way better on the league table, holding 5th position and only 4 points behind league leaders Borussia Dortmund, while Wolfsburg is on 14th position with 7 points less. They have problems with middle teams, while they are usually highly motivated for bigger names - they played 2-2 against Bayern Munchen and Bayer Leverkusen (both away matches) and I am pretty much sure that they will try to take the step with Schalke as well. As they are too weak defensively, their result will depend on the number of goals they will score.
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PICK: Juventus -0,5 @2,00 PINNACLE
Derby time in Italy! I need to admit that match will be played at strange hour (17:00), but it won’t change anything. San Siro will host derby between Milan and Juventus. “Unfortunately” Bonucci who was joined AC Milan this season right from Juventus won’t play due to injury. Besides mentioned defender, Montella is without midfielder Bonaventura and two defenders Conti and Calabria. He will probably start with 3 defenders (Zapata, Romagnoli, Musacchio) but both wide playmakers will have plenty of defensive objectives. On the other hand, Juventus is still without Howedes (without official match this season), Benatia and Pjaca, but all key players are fit and ready for the match. Napoli and now Inter Milan are in front of Italian champions and especially due to form of Napoli, they cannot afford mistakes anymore. Plan in Milan was huge, but pretty quickly we saw that buying that many players won’t be enough and even if players have high level of quality, they will need time to adapt and really work as a team. We’ve been on Juventus last time against Atalanta but Dybala missed penalty in 84th minute and match finished with draw. I am sure that Juventus will be the team who will have more chances and offered odds at 2 represents value to me.
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Today at 20:45, Parc des Princes will host match between PSG and Nice. Main referee will be Tony Chapron who was 5 days ago referee on match of Super league between Tianjin Quanijan and Hebei CFFC. He is a referee who doesn’t appreciate harsh fouls and likes to give cards. For example, Balotelli already received the red card from him.
People were talking that this years PSG is simply unbeatable. Well, Marseille proved them wrong. Even if they aren’t in superior shape, they were really close to beat Parisians. PSG was 2-1 down on Velodrome and after red card for Neymar it looked that they will finish on their knees, but Cavani showed his quality from free kick spot. He scored in 93rd minute and kept them on “safe” difference with Monaco. Neymar will miss this match due to suspension, while Thiago Motta isn’t fit yet and won’t participate neither. Both right full backs Dani Alves and Thomas Meunier are having some concerns with light injuries, but one of them will play for sure.
Squad of PSG:
Areola, Trapp – Berchiche, Dani Alves, Kimpembe, Kurzawa, Marquinhos, Meunier, Thiago Silva – Lo Celso, Nkunku, Pastore, Rabiot, Verratti – Cavani, Di Maria, Draxler, Lucas, Mbappé.After a sensational season, team from Allianz Riviera is having a hard time. Problems of Lucian Favre started last season, when they lost few key players at the end of the season and on of them – midfielder Cyprien is still absent. That situation in midfield is worse their key player Seri won’t play neither. He isn’t fit after calf injury against Strasbourg. For Nice this tough away match isn’t at the right time as they are already on the road of 4 matches without a single point. Having only 10 points after 10 matches is putting Favre in dangerous spot as well. Besides mentioned Seri and Cyprien, Nice will miss two forwards Ganago and Le Bihan. First one played 3 matches and scored 1 goal this season, while Le Bihan hasn’t played any matches. Balotelli had some concerns as well, but I am sure that he will be prepared to play. Question is also if Favre will post up Sneijder or not.
Squad of Nice:
Cardinale, Benitez – Jallet, Souquet, Burner, Dante, Marlon, Le Marchand – Lees-Melou, Sneijder, Tameze, Walter, Mendy, Lusamba, Koziello – St-Maximin, Plea, Balotelli.Last season match between those two teams on Parc des Princes ended with 2-2 (ht 0-2), while on Riviera Nice won 3-1 (2 red cards for PSG). I am convinced that PSG will try to revenge last season results and push them in even deeper crisis. But regardless bad results against average teams, Nice played solid on big matches. They won Monaco with 4-0, but not away from home. Their squad is far from bad. Especially offensive part of the team with Balotelli, Plea, Maximin, Lees-Melou, definitely one of the best offensives in the league, but there is something wrong this season. Lots of people are pointing on the goalkeeper – Cardinale, as he really made several mistakes which costed them points, but there has to be something else too. PSG is “fresh”. They will fly over the pitch, try to attack. They have strong midfield, fast attackers and Nice who has one of the weakest defences in the league, making lots of critical errors, will have a tough time if they will try to make a buildup as they are used to. It will be interesting to see who will play in position of Neymar. Will that be Mbappe and Di Maria on other wing or simply Draxler? He seemed to be unsatisfied after playing less lately and I believe that he would be very motivated in this match. Even if it will be a match of two teams who loves to be in possession, Nice without Seri and Cyprien have no chances in my opinion. It’s true that result can change possession, but PSG is simply to strong right now – in average also the best team when it comes to possession (64%, Nice 57%). Less chances created will be a consequence of lower possession, and I believe that Emery saw how Nice won Monaco and won’t let something similar happen to them. PSG will create more chances, be positioned higher on the pitch, having bigger possession, while Saint-Maximin will be the player who will have a special attention from PSG’s players as he is incredible in transition.
Betting point of view: odds are showing real picture. I was leaning to PSG winning first half -0,75 but there is no value on 1,60. Odds on win of PSG are extremely low but they are low with the reason. Neymar or not, Nice is in deep crisis. They are making too many mistakes and I cannot trust them at the moment.
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My thoughts:
I am thinking about my classical Man City 1st half.. -0,75 looks fine at @1,99.
Spurs being without Kane is a huge blow for Poch, but United with their "way" of football.. it can easily stay at goalless draw.
Morata should be back for Conte.. odds on Chelsea straight win are going higher and higher.. smells value.
There is one more match where I see value and that is Watford - Stoke. I think that everything above 2,05 on home side is valuable.
Premier League Predictions > Dec 2nd & 3rd
in Premier League Predictions
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Leicester vs Burnley; 16:00
Leicester will miss only defender Huth and midfielder James.
Burnley is coming without first goalkeeper Heaton who played only 4 matches this season. Midfielder Marney and attacker Walters aren’t fresh absent either, but regular defender Lowton may stay out of action after picking up an injury recently.
Short preview: Leicester is dangerous against teams who are giving them space, having defensive line pushed higher. Well Burnley won’t do that and I expect Foxes having real troubles today. I think that bookmakers are giving to big chances to Leicester here and suggest a +0,5 on away side with odds around 2,00.