andrewcalo

Everton V Burnley
Burnley +1 AH @ 1.714 Matchbook
Fading Everton in this match seems to be public bet of the week and that always makes me feel uneasy but the metrics really do favour Burnley here.
Everton are in poor form right now, they lack a playmaker who can make the game from midfield and drive the team forward. Gueye, Schneiderlin and Davies all have tremendous energy and industry but it's hard to call any of them a playmaker. Upfront they lack a ruthless goalscorer and have to rely on inconsistent match winners such as Rooney and Sigurdsson.
Not only did Everton play on Thursday in Europa League, which is usually a drain, but they contrived to draw a game they should have won and now the Goodison faithful are starting to get lary. This does not bode well for the spirit level in home matches.
As for Burnley, I've been impressed with them away from home this season, they're strong defensively and make quick transitions to hit the opposition on the counter. The ELO ratings also favour Burnley in this fixture with a half goal advantage and Sean Dyche's team is either ahead or level on a lot of other important metrics.
To me it seems Burnley are just the kind of dogged and difficult opposition that Everton would rather not face at this momment in time. Everton have clear quality advantage in terms of personnel and their match winners can kill you from out of nowhere but I think Burnley on the +1 line offers a decent safety net given the circumstances which surround this match.
Ultimately it's a difficult game to call, Everton have a clear quality advantage but it's hard to ignore Burnley on such a big line in these circumstances. Will be interested to see how this one plays out.

Anyone else getting on the Manchester United to win to nil bandwagon? Or will the midweek trip to Moscow sap their energy?

I can see the logic since Palace haven't scored a goal this season and lost all our matches + Man Utd one of the strongest teams in the league but surely Man Utd to win to nil @ 7/10 is uninspiring price, to me it does not look big value even though it's a rational and logical play.
Can't really comment on Moscow game affecting win to nil outcome other than Man Utd seemed to comfortably win which is surely better for their condition than any other outcome from said game. Always have to look at injuries and absences before a new match anyway, I would say listen to manager's presser comments but you have to take Mourinho's words with a pinch of salt, look at banana gate in Europa League last year ffs.
Palace have no recognizable centre-forward for Man Utd game but I don't think I need to tell you folks about the old 'no centre-forward repel theory' a theory which is both profound and far-reaching, some say dangerous.

Two or three times a season the bookies jack up the odds because what's the point of betting if you don't win sweet fa when you do win?
So they'll make it tasty to keep us keen. They want us to think we have a decent chance every so often. This happened last week with the likes of Spurs Man U Celtic and Chelsea all at 1.7 or so.
This week it's back to normal. Don't be fooled by the odds on Liverpool or Everton. Newcastle have a good record against Liverpool and they have a tough match tomorrow night Champions League.
Everton same - Burnley have a week between games. Everton don't.
Burnley are workhorses. 

Two or three times a season the bookies jack up the odds because what's the point of betting if you don't win sweet fa when you do win?
So they'll make it tasty to keep us keen. They want us to think we have a decent chance every so often. This happened last week with the likes of Spurs Man U Celtic and Chelsea all at 1.7 or so.
This week it's back to normal. Don't be fooled by the odds on Liverpool or Everton. Newcastle have a good record against Liverpool and they have a tough match tomorrow night Champions League.
Everton same - Burnley have a week between games. Everton don't.
Burnley are workhorses. 

*Poor form alert
Whitecaps -0.5
Whitecaps will know there is no better opportunity to continue their climb up the table. Timbers isn't the best road side and could be missing up to at least 8-10 first teams and squad players due to Gold Cup, injuries and suspensions and Whitecaps (who has a habit of being too passive at times) should really be going for all 3 points.

Anyone else think that Walker won't really fit into the City team? It's true that he's physically  strong and fast, but what about the ball control? Especially for Guardiola's "inside" full backs? I didn't follow him close enough on last season, but I am really not sure about him. 

I thought they might have these issues last season but it didn't fully materialise (despite Costa crisis). It's true that Conte drives his teams to the very limits and of course Mourinho found out his players were only so motivated the year after he won the title with them. I agree with you that there's definitely an underlying volatility at Chelsea but how do we convert this into a bet? Markets are already extremely sceptical of Chelsea's title ambitions, laying them in EPL winners market is all risk for little reward.

Not now that Conte has signed an improved contract, that was the main inflection point for them this summer. Their transfer business has been good so far, I especially like the signing of Rudiger as he allows you to transition smoothly between a back 3 and a back 4 in-game. This will give Chelsea an added tactical flexibility this year. Defensively they will be sound once again.
Their biggest problem will be replacing Costa as he really is the complete no.9. I don't see many, if any available that possess his qualities as a centre-forward, he was instrumental in their attacking game last year with his awareness and movement.

Chelsea are a strange one. It seemed almost certain Conte would move on at one point and then it's taken a couple of months after speculation of his departure for them to tie him down to a new contract. Not bagging Lukaku hurt them. You can see that. They went for the quick rebound move with Morata but that's not looking like materialising either. It seems Diego Costa and Conte are not exactly getting on so it begs the question what will they do for a front man next season? If Costa stays then how long will it be before him and Conte come to blows? If Costa goes then who will they sign? All of Europe's top strikers are slowly committing their futures to one club or another and they are running out of options. Would Zlatan be a shout out of nowhere? Would he be enough? I'd be worried if I was a Chelsea fan. I'm not convinced the likes of Alonso and Moses will repeat their form again either. They should still finish top four but it's a risky one.
Regarding Tottenham and Newcastle. The Wembley factor is a massive one. I'm not sure losing Walker will be as hurtful as some think. Trippier is far from the finished article but he's not a bad worst case scenario. Newcastle, it seems all is not well again. The board are not backing Benitez in the transfer market. They should learn. Last summer they backed him and he sealed promotion. Back him this summer and he'll do well this season. Unfortunately, I can see them struggling against the drop if he's not backed.

Thanks for the tag.
I think Stoke will struggle for reasons I outlined in the antepost thread. Arnautovic is being linked with West Ham today and to lose him would make them more impotent than they are already.
Spurs, after a couple of great seasons may struggle to replicate that having basically forfeited home advantage for the season. We saw in last season's CL campaign how significant that can be.
Bournemouth appear to have bought well and could surprise if they can improve defensively.
Arsenal could be underrated if Wenger perseveres with the 3 at the back formation. They won something like 9 out of 10 games playing this formation at the end of last season and then dominated Chelsea in the cup final so it appears to suit the players. 12/1 might underrate them.
Chelsea and Liverpool will need bigger squads, being involved in Europe this season.

The opening weekend of the 2017/18 Premier League season is set to start in one month from now. The season opens up with Arsenal versus Leicester and then there are a number of intriguing fixtures after that. Based on the transfers that clubs have made already what are your thoughts on these games? How will the newly promoted teams do? Can you already see a few teams struggling? What about teams fighting it out for the title? Are you of the belief that the top seven are in a league of their own now?
@sajtion, @discipline, @Pipoca, @the bastardian, @andrewcalo, @Mindfulness, @Sir Puntalot, @AndreBR, @mrclubbie, @neilovan, @allyhibs, @Judeksi, @Tiffy, @KikoCy, @Bett, @zemo91, @sm0kez, @Bronxie, @Duuc, @Dylan Lynch, @betcatalog, @vasilli07, @omch@, @Pep004, and @WinningAdvice, you guys all got involved in the Premier League betting last season. What do you think?
@Torque and @AK1979, you also got involved in the ante-post chat. Do you have any early tips?

Odds seem to be dropping so I will post the Wed game first. Let's see if we can make it two in a row with Hotlanta.
Atlanta -1 @ 2.11(marathonbet)
Earthquakes Anibal Godoy has left to join up with the Panama national team that is likely to leave them abit short in the central midfield area. While both teams are on a 3 games a week schedule, Earthquakes are likely to be more tired. Players like Imperiale, Yueill, Hyka(77 minutes against Sounders) and Wondolowski have already play 90 minutes in the last two games. Being a cross country game as well, the travelling will add on the extra burden. Atlanta frightening front four(Almiron, Asad, Villalba and Martinez) should be ready to go again as it will only be their second game. Earthquakes is rather woeful on the road(2W-1D-5W) and I believe Atalanta should be able to pick up another win at home before the Gold Cup break begins.
 

Got to say this week fixtures are tough. I liked Houston but their second and third top goal scorers(Elis and Quito) are unavailable because of international duty.
Atalanta United DNB 3.24/+0.5 2.09(pinnacle)
I'm going to take a risk this week, splitting my unit into two. Atlanta hasn't been playing too well lately when playing on the road but their high pressing style could force Crew backline into mistakes. While Atalanta played in midweek, their front four(Almiron, Asad, Villalba and Martinez) are rested so they should all play in this game. Columbus Crew is like a box of chocolate, you never know what you could be getting from them each week so there is always a good chance that they won't turn up after their big win against Montreal. 

The goal machine that is C Ronaldo to score anytime at 2.00. Very nice price.

Some teams will be decimated by the Gold Cup international callups. Will be back when I confirm the team news and plays.

I will not bet on these games because i am not sure like on the other ones before...
Maybe i would go for Czech v denmark - over 2,5 goals or even win czech.
Italy - Germany I dont really know... Italy have to score some goals and will go on full attack. over 2.5 goals ?!

Chicago Fire -1 @ 2.18
Orlando players have been forced to go into overdrive in midweek when they went in search of an equaliser(which they did and screw me ). A cross country game is probably the last thing they needed. Chicago Fire could be the Leicester City of MLS if they win the cup this season while Schweinsteiger(10x better than Stevie G and Lampard) has been a revelation so far in his short MLS career. Sounders failed to take advantage of Orlando but I doubt Fire will let the chance slip away. 

De Boer is a massive gamble. I think Palace do have to gamble though. Anybody they appoint would be a risk. I think if I was an Eagles fan I would probably prefer to go with a younger manager than an older one. @Mindfulness, what are your thoughts, pal?

Everton doing some good business. I think £30 million for Pickford is a gamble but far from the worst buy of all-time. Signing Klaasen is also a great move. I think they just need a centre back to partner Williams, get a right back in to deputise for the injured Coleman, and then sign a striker to partner or cover Lukaku. Their squad will be starting to take a very good shape. Dark horses for top four next season?

Chile, Germany double pays 2.31. Thank you very much mr bookie.

Toronto -1 @ 1.77(pinnacle)
Toronto should be full strength as both Bradley and Altidore return from US international duty. Patrick Mullins will be notable absentee for DC United as he continue to rehab following a knee surgery. Toronto has so far been the most consistent team this season(I expect them to win the MLS cup barring any injuries to their key players) and they should return to winning ways against DC United who is definitely looking like a favourite for the wooden spoon now.

Hi guys
 
Came across this article on Medium from new bookie MustardBet.com, which looks at whether moving stadium has an impact on a team’s performance. Really interesting stuff. They look at home goals as an indicator in particular. Definitely something to bear in mind with Spurs next season...
 
Have a look anyway
Cheers
 

Yeh fair enough mate, there's not much we can say in detail till August but try and follow the ante-post markets over the comming weeks if you can as they do produce some good opportunities here and there. Initial price errors don't last as the markets mature.
I haven't heard anything about Stockdale but I would not be suprised if we try and buy a keeper this window.
In Stevie P we trust.

Top 10 Finish – Crystal Palace @ 7.0 (Bet Stars)
I have to get on this one early as I don’t think the price will hold if Palace make a sound appointment and surely it will deteriorate as this market matures in any case?!?!
Bet Stars seem to be one of the first operators offering top 10 market for EPL and it looks like they’ve handed the task of setting the prices to a kid on work experience. The price disparity between some of the clubs is frankly hilarious when you compare it to the reality on the ground.
In my view there is very little daylight between the EPL’s mid-table sides (8th – 16th approx) and so you have 8 or 9 reasonably matched teams going for the remaining 3 positions in the top half. In my view the mid-table group should all be around 3.0 – 4.0 but instead we have a bizarre range with Leicester @ 2.25 and Watford @ 9.0.   
I feel Southampton are probably 8th best team in the league as things stand but question marks over manager, key players and club ownership means 1.47 for top half finish is too short at the time of writing this.
Ultimately Palace are 7.0 because they were involved in the relegation dog fight right up to the penultimate week of 2016-2017 and they currently have no manager. I agree with @StevieDay1983 that Palace have reached an inflection point but when you look at the quality of the playing squad and the fact that they do not need to rush new managerial appointment then I take the view they will compete for top 10 finish this campaign rather than another relegation dog fight.
Don’t forget Palace finished 4pts off 10th in 2016-2017, I don’t think 7.0 will hold unless they appoint a total clown. This to me is the first clear value bet of the new season. There’s no guarantee of success but make this selection 1000 times in these exact same circumstances and you should be in profit at the end of it. Bet Stars top 10 market seems immature here.