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Valiant Thor

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  1. Like
    Valiant Thor reacted to CrazySuzy in BillyHills - Remembering One Year On   
    What a lovely post to see. Graham would be proud to know he is remembered. He loved Punters Lounge passionately, and would want everything to carry on and move forward. There is no better legacy than leaving behind work that is built on and taken forward by others for the future. Thank you all for your support and kindness, it is invaluable.
  2. Like
    Valiant Thor reacted to StevieDay1983 in BillyHills - Remembering One Year On   
    It seems crazy to think that a whole year has gone since our beloved admin BillyHills aka Graham Sarson tragically passed away. Graham is still remembered very fondly here. Even now we still hear positive things about him either through personal memories members have shared or members expressing the influence he had on their own lives or this forum itself.
    On a personal note, I know that Punters Lounge isn't the same without Graham but I think he'd be proud of the legacy he has left. 12 months may have passed but Graham still remains in our hearts and the influence he had on the place you see now is still very much clear. We thought it was only appropriate that we posted some words up one year on so that people can take time to remember Graham and so that his wife Suzy and his family know that we are all still thinking of them during this difficult time.
    BillyHills may no longer be with us but he is still very much in our memories and in our thoughts. ❤️
  3. Thanks
    Valiant Thor reacted to MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    I posted this last Saturday.
    "One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds. If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%."
    So why do you claim my statement is clearly not true?
    The small sample you have posted doesn't really prove anything I'm afraid.
  4. Like
    Valiant Thor reacted to MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Do you have any data to support this ?
  5. Haha
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Should be the glass is too big
  6. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Just a point to educate you (difficult task I know but to quote Alexander Pope "Hope springs eternal")
    £20 challenge =back to 20pts or Lay to 20pts
    Laying is the inverse of backing, therefore when laying ( backers stake = Liability/(lay odds -1)
    Therefore when you lay to 20pts you do not back @ the lay price which is what you are doing 🙄
    You lay to a liability of 20pts

    Lay to 20pts liability
    2.10 Plum Galata Bridge...20/(1.38-1)=52.63 (backers stake)
    3.00 Bev Brando ....20/(1.7-1) =28.57 (backers stake)

    Results should read
    2.10 Plum Galata Bridge.....WON....-20pts
    3.00 Bev Brando ....LOST....+28.57 (multiplied by 1-comm rate)
    Total Profit C/fwd +8.57

    I find its always better to do things correctly .
    As for catching me up , this will be my last post in this thread until you do and going off your past performances it will be my POST ULTIMUM  as they say.
     
  7. Like
    Valiant Thor reacted to MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    I'm an accountant and I'm always more cheerful when my horses are winning and my shares are going up.
  8. Haha
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Im an engineer , unless things are correct and in order we as a species are not cheerful
  9. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Just a point to educate you (difficult task I know but to quote Alexander Pope "Hope springs eternal")
    £20 challenge =back to 20pts or Lay to 20pts
    Laying is the inverse of backing, therefore when laying ( backers stake = Liability/(lay odds -1)
    Therefore when you lay to 20pts you do not back @ the lay price which is what you are doing 🙄
    You lay to a liability of 20pts

    Lay to 20pts liability
    2.10 Plum Galata Bridge...20/(1.38-1)=52.63 (backers stake)
    3.00 Bev Brando ....20/(1.7-1) =28.57 (backers stake)

    Results should read
    2.10 Plum Galata Bridge.....WON....-20pts
    3.00 Bev Brando ....LOST....+28.57 (multiplied by 1-comm rate)
    Total Profit C/fwd +8.57

    I find its always better to do things correctly .
    As for catching me up , this will be my last post in this thread until you do and going off your past performances it will be my POST ULTIMUM  as they say.
     
  10. Sad
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    LOST...2nd
    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +74.13
  11. Haha
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    I dont remember you making a profit on anything but Hey Ho
  12. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    And there in lies the caveat
  13. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Wildgarden in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    The amount of bets is irrelevant its about return on investment,
    People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky
    When inflation is around 3% theyre basically investing to lose money and theyre told its a good deal because its tax free, so how does that work (and thats like one bet in relative terms).
    People who are serious about "betting" should look at it more of a business IMO, anyone can sell stuff for less than its worth and then go bust, others seek the value and make money the same as anything be it stocks , business , betting they're all just a numbers game.
  14. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    All my betting selections are automated to eradicate any emotion in the choice , so whether its Mon,Wed or Sun makes no difference (boring maybe but its how i like to do things, easier to quantify)
     
  15. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    So they alter the starting prices do they to suit there statistics
    justified
  16. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    All my betting selections are automated to eradicate any emotion in the choice , so whether its Mon,Wed or Sun makes no difference (boring maybe but its how i like to do things, easier to quantify)
     
  17. Haha
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    And there in lies the caveat
  18. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    The amount of bets is irrelevant its about return on investment,
    People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky
    When inflation is around 3% theyre basically investing to lose money and theyre told its a good deal because its tax free, so how does that work (and thats like one bet in relative terms).
    People who are serious about "betting" should look at it more of a business IMO, anyone can sell stuff for less than its worth and then go bust, others seek the value and make money the same as anything be it stocks , business , betting they're all just a numbers game.
  19. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from peanut peanut in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    The amount of bets is irrelevant its about return on investment,
    People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky
    When inflation is around 3% theyre basically investing to lose money and theyre told its a good deal because its tax free, so how does that work (and thats like one bet in relative terms).
    People who are serious about "betting" should look at it more of a business IMO, anyone can sell stuff for less than its worth and then go bust, others seek the value and make money the same as anything be it stocks , business , betting they're all just a numbers game.
  20. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Wildgarden in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Just the 1 today , about the best of a bad bunch , still a bit of meat in the 2.88 with the odds boost IMO
    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +94.13

    20pts...MEWS HOUSE
  21. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from gbettle in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    The same conclusion was derived by an actuary E.L Figgis in an audit for the Royal Commission on Gambling back in 1950,1965,1973 and published in their report in 1978
    Similar findings were published by Henery in 1985 covering uk flat racing
    Also in the Ladbrokes Pocket Companion (1990) in a trial from 1985~1989 placing bets of odds under 1/2 or shorter yielded a positive return of 6.5%
    From at least 1950 to present day this has and does still exist, so It amazes me you still read the crap "you cant make money backing favs" bandied around by punters who cant see the wood for the trees or think they know better than the market.
    Like you say "it means the rest of us can make money" and long may it continue.
  22. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from peanut peanut in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    The same conclusion was derived by an actuary E.L Figgis in an audit for the Royal Commission on Gambling back in 1950,1965,1973 and published in their report in 1978
    Similar findings were published by Henery in 1985 covering uk flat racing
    Also in the Ladbrokes Pocket Companion (1990) in a trial from 1985~1989 placing bets of odds under 1/2 or shorter yielded a positive return of 6.5%
    From at least 1950 to present day this has and does still exist, so It amazes me you still read the crap "you cant make money backing favs" bandied around by punters who cant see the wood for the trees or think they know better than the market.
    Like you say "it means the rest of us can make money" and long may it continue.
  23. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    The same conclusion was derived by an actuary E.L Figgis in an audit for the Royal Commission on Gambling back in 1950,1965,1973 and published in their report in 1978
    Similar findings were published by Henery in 1985 covering uk flat racing
    Also in the Ladbrokes Pocket Companion (1990) in a trial from 1985~1989 placing bets of odds under 1/2 or shorter yielded a positive return of 6.5%
    From at least 1950 to present day this has and does still exist, so It amazes me you still read the crap "you cant make money backing favs" bandied around by punters who cant see the wood for the trees or think they know better than the market.
    Like you say "it means the rest of us can make money" and long may it continue.
  24. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from peanut peanut in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    4.12...GUBBAS...........LOST...7th
    8.70...KOY KOY...........WON...20.62
    7.18...THREE DONS...LOST...2nd
    STAKED...20...RETURNED...20.62...PROFIT...0.62PTS (better than a loss 🙄)
    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +94.13
  25. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    4.12...GUBBAS...........LOST...7th
    8.70...KOY KOY...........WON...20.62
    7.18...THREE DONS...LOST...2nd
    STAKED...20...RETURNED...20.62...PROFIT...0.62PTS (better than a loss 🙄)
    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +94.13
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