Zilzalian Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Wise Words There is a lot of well-conducted research showing that flexible thinkers make better predictions than rigid thinkers. It started with academic Philip Tetlock’s study between 1984 and 2005 into expert political and economic judgements. He found that experts with dogmatic beliefs made worse predictions than experts without dogmatic beliefs. Zico10 and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Lipsink 4 15 Soth/ 1/10 of a pt win 8/1 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 (edited) Double. 4.50. South. Edinburgh Rock. 17/2..... unpl 6.15. Wolv. Tabaretta 3/1... 1st singles & double Edited October 20, 2022 by kensland The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 (edited) Southwell. Single. 2.30. Dark Side Thunder. 7/2.... unpl Good luck all. Edited October 20, 2022 by kensland The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted October 20, 2022 Author Share Posted October 20, 2022 13 hours ago, Zilzalian said: Wise Words There is a lot of well-conducted research showing that flexible thinkers make better predictions than rigid thinkers. It started with academic Philip Tetlock’s study between 1984 and 2005 into expert political and economic judgements. He found that experts with dogmatic beliefs made worse predictions than experts without dogmatic beliefs. Just remember people, computers and systems are by definition dogmatic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Southwell 1250 MISS DOLLY ROCKER Win @ boosted price 11/10 impressive behind luckin Brew at Kempton last time over a mile. sharp drop in trip the worry. But given that Luckin Brew was narrowly defeated at class 1 next time out on turf gives substance to the form and this could be a drop in class as well as distance and may well win going away. ( I hope so!) Has to cope with the drop in trip but we'll see. Oops posted in yesterdays thread. So sorry folks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Zilzalian said: Just remember people, computers and systems are by definition dogmatic. If I use my judgement to make decisions I tend to lose money, if I use my systems then I make money. One example is I used to believe Frankie Dettori was not very good in sprints. However when I reviewed the statistics he is actually profitable to follow in sprints but not in other distances. I suppose the issue is how we define flexibility and rigidity in horse racing. Villa Chris, The Equaliser and kensland 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Zilzalian said: Just remember people, computers and systems are by definition dogmatic. They have their use. Backing all selections blindly will usually affect profitability, it is though a 'good thing' to use systems/methods as a way of reducing the work. Further analysis then required to make the most of them. The Equaliser, kensland, Villa Chris and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 I suppose systems/ratings give you a picture but not the whole picture. I do enjoy going off what I’ve rated though. It takes emotions and other tipsters opinions out of the equation . kensland and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: I suppose systems/ratings give you a picture but not the whole picture. I do enjoy going off what I’ve rated though. It takes emotions and other tipsters opinions out of the equation . Many tipsters have far too much influence for me, especially when compared to their results. I tend to ignore them (and oppose if possible - let them make the value). The Equaliser, MCLARKE, Villa Chris and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 (edited) 3.20 Carl Croagh Patrick 11/4 @Craggwood 4.15 Sou Lipsink 4/1 @black rabbit 6.15 Wolv Tabaretta 4/1 @kensland @Peter York 1 x 1 pt win Trixie = poss return of 156.25 = 4 points staked Singles and savers 3.20 Carl Tonto's Spirit 0.60 EW at 9/1 4.15 Sou Lipsink 0.50 ew at 5/1 and Ooh Is It 0.50 ew at 12/1 Total stakes = 7.20 Strange run by Lipsink, it came back again but got beaten a short head. I'll try a 2 points win on Tabaretta in the 6.15 at Wolves at 4.7 in an attempt to get out at B/E 9.20 points staked today ---------------------------------------- RESULTS UPDATE At least Tabaretta won by a head so I broke even today or made 0.05 profit. My MTD is -52.12 and YTD is -226.10. I feel a bit unlucky with Lipsink; commiserations to @black rabbit Some class racing tomorrow with @richard-westwoodhaving a go in the 3.55 at Cheltenham. So this looks interesting. I can't remember why PL members shun Amateur jockey races like the 4.30 but suffice it to say that with 20 runners going to post it looks difficult Edited October 20, 2022 by The Equaliser RESULTS UPDATE kensland and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 I guess pointing out the incorrect date in the thread title (Thursday 10th!) makes me a flexible thinker! Zilzalian and kensland 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted October 20, 2022 Author Share Posted October 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, harry_rag said: I guess pointing out the incorrect date in the thread title (Thursday 10th!) makes me a flexible thinker! Yep and i hate wrong dates and here i am putting one up. maybe @MCLARKE can change it. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 53 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Yep and i hate wrong dates and here i am putting one up. maybe @MCLARKE can change it. Your wish is my command. The Equaliser and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 3 hours ago, Bang on said: Many tipsters have far too much influence for me, especially when compared to their results. I tend to ignore them (and oppose if possible - let them make the value). Well said , rely on your own instincts & methods albeit , good to see others opinions . alexcaruso808, Bang on, Zilzalian and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 8 hours ago, black rabbit said: Lipsink 4 15 Soth/ 1/10 of a pt win 8/1 2nd alexcaruso808, The Equaliser and Wildgarden 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 (edited) 21 hours ago, Zilzalian said: Wise Words There is a lot of well-conducted research showing that flexible thinkers make better predictions than rigid thinkers. It started with academic Philip Tetlock’s study between 1984 and 2005 into expert political and economic judgements. He found that experts with dogmatic beliefs made worse predictions than experts without dogmatic beliefs. Isn't that a tad contradictory as he must have used rigid diagnostics (dogmatic beliefs) to come up with his conclusion therefore making his own predictions less accurate. More bullshit for the masses Edited October 20, 2022 by Valiant Thor MCLARKE and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 (edited) Wolverhampton. 7.45. Grace Angel 3/1... 2nd Good luck all. Edited October 21, 2022 by kensland alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 (edited) Just one for me: 20:15 Wolves - Holocene @ 2.7 - win - 9th :( Edited October 20, 2022 by alexcaruso808 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted October 20, 2022 Author Share Posted October 20, 2022 5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Isn't that a tad contradictory as he must have used rigid diagnostics (dogmatic beliefs) to come up with his conclusion therefore making his own predictions less accurate. More bullshit for the masses Its a good and valid point you make but surely it depends on his starting belief, if he thought lets say contrary to the results and proved himself wrong thus changing his belief then the conclusion would be more important/meaningful than the methodology used. most of my winnings come actually based on things that i spot usually on the last minute or after i have formulated a list of what i plan to back, was trying to think of an example and the mugs £5 double i put on bay bridge and bayside boy last saturday is a fine example it wasnt just that they were called bay? i had remembered bayside boy from last year and thought 33/1 a huge price considering the form of the stable in recent weeks and stout is always worth a consideration and i pretty much (eventually) convinced myself as i wrote at the time that the trip and ground could find Baaeed out. to also maybe contradict myself i use my 2yo speed figure dogmatically. i think a good way of betting is if it aint working try something else, the dogmatics tend to keep flogging a dead horse and rarely or are reluctant to change. my betting book is a nightmare its got all sorts of daft and different bets in it, even on a daily basis. i bet the outside bet (win lose draw)on 6 football matches once and five won and one match was abandoned, not done many footie bets since just on the basis that if 5 outsiders can come up i have no chance of getting five or six betting form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 Now I'm the opposite ....I love my computer approach ....a race is just a series of numbers on a giant pair of scales ...complicated but just numbers ....so you'll never have a better friend than a computer ...they can do 400 calculations in the time it takes you do 10 ...the computer regularly spots stuff I miss in the mass of info ..so it gives you a big edge .....my 3 biggest wins of all time ...( in the thousands ) ...all came from the computer so its a great friend to have Valiant Thor, MCLARKE, Zilzalian and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 I’m not clued up with computers. Would be nice to be able to have it done for me though. Can you set it up to rate races how you rate them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Villa Chris said: I’m not clued up with computers. Would be nice to be able to have it done for me though. Can you set it up to rate races how you rate them? Whatever calculations you can do with a pen & paper you can do with a computer a lot quicker Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: Whatever calculations you can do with a pen & paper you can do with a computer a lot quicker I’ll have to look into that then because although I enjoy the notepad , it can become tiresome . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: I’ll have to look into that then because although I enjoy the notepad , it can become tiresome . Bit of advice, you can take it or leave it, Learn how to use excel first rather than programming (python is usually the preferred language) Only learn what you need (there's no point filling your head how to do stuff you wont use,if you need certain formulas later learn them then ) DON'T BUY Excel for Dummies, Excel in 24 hrs , Beginners guides to Excel etc etc , Get an Excel for Kids book ( pref 10-12 age group) you'll learn most of what you need a lot quicker ( the basics) Try WPS OFFICE SPREADSHEET if you dont have excel (looks and works similar to excel, not as good but a good enough starting point) Its worth the effort G'Luck VT Edited October 21, 2022 by Valiant Thor add link Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted October 21, 2022 Author Share Posted October 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: Bit of advice, you can take it or leave it, Learn how to use excel first rather than programming (python is usually the preferred language) Only learn what you need (there's no point filling your head how to do stuff you wont use,if you need certain formulas later learn them then ) DON'T BUY Excel for Dummies, Excel in 24 hrs , Beginners guides to Excel etc etc , Get an Excel for Kids book ( pref 10-12 age group) you'll learn most of what you need a lot quicker ( the basics) Try WPS OFFICE SPREADSHEET if you dont have excel (looks and works similar to excel, not as good but a good enough starting point) Its worth the effort G'Luck VT Can i add a recomendation here, hope you dont mind, I use the free "open office from apache" its similar to ms office and it opens word and excel files too. does the job just as well as MS Office for non of the cost in my opinion. harry_rag and Bang on 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Can i add a recomendation here, hope you dont mind, I use the free "open office from apache" its similar to ms office and it opens word and excel files too. does the job just as well as MS Office for non of the cost in my opinion. I mentioned wps spreadsheet purely as its less bloated software and I dont know how much space he has on his device. harry_rag and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 I use Libre Office. Not sure where that sits on the bloatiness spectrum but I can recommend it as someone who started out using Excel at work and wanted a free option at home. Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, harry_rag said: I use Libre Office. Not sure where that sits on the bloatiness spectrum but I can recommend it as someone who started out using Excel at work and wanted a free option at home. Libre Office is the better of the 2 I am an engineer only use what you need If I was using either Id put them on a pen drive and use when needed keep the free space on my puter. Your talking to someone with a modified 2 terabyte 4k firestick (no buffering and need for a cache cleaner for me) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 All these names of stuff sound foreign to me. I’ve only got my mobile as any kind of device . Bang on 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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