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Kanga

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Posts posted by Kanga

    Lay Of The Day ~ 04/07/07

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Lay Of The Day ~ 04/07/07 Catterick 4:05 ... Rue Soliel Inconsistent type and trainers 1/56 strike rate is hardly inspiring. Racing post says Onatopp is over exposed but previous winners have been more so and I can't see past this one winning - Red Barnet also has better claims.

    Calculating Odds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Calculating Odds Hi FG, Just remember that if you give a selection a 25% chance of winning then don't expect to get it right every race, it's easy to forget that your selection will only come in proportional to the % you've calculated. Also they won't come in convenient 0001 0001 0001 bundles :loon. Paper trading is the way to go, and the current wild swings in going hasn't made things any easier lately. Try picking an A/W course let's say Wolves as IMHO this is nice consistent course to trial. :ok

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay Hi Ginge, Yes I primarily LAY horses, simply on the basis that bookmakers do the same and they are ones who generally have the nice holidays :rollin . There's alot to digest in your comments but as posted on other threads I believe that each horse has a "true price" and as you know the trick is to work out what that price is going by the facts we have. The trouble is (as you say) others know different at times - ringers, underweights, specially prepared, exceptionally fit ...etc..etc..etc. YES - As the "book" has to equal 100% and a horse is particularly "short" many of the others will be "value" but not all - and the big question then is WHY is that horse a short price ? I lay a varying number of horses a day all at "value" prices so in the long run I make money but most of the time I "fish" for a price, and when/if I get matched these are the ones I make money on. In running this thread I decided the best way was to post the horse that was available to instantly match shorter than what I thought was the "fair price" - what has been happening is that I have been identifying well backed horses that seem to have been aimed at winning only one has drifted after laying (and lost) I'm going to keep listing these because the longer this carries on I may be able to add a BACK method to the armoury. :ok

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay

    4:15 Pontefract ... Bollin Felix (max lay 8.40) current price 5.90
    And we have another winner - unbelieveable !!! :wall :wall :wall 1 point staked ... -4.90 points returned.
    Staked16.00
    Profit-19.50
    Yield-122%
    Wins8
    Strike50.00%

    Pontefract 2/7

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Pontefract 2/7

    14.15 Pontefract – Kylkenny (WIN) 7.0 @ Paddypower Despite finishing just outside the places in its last two races, the handicappers have been very kind. Has been mainly running 1m4f or 1m3f this season, and its races notes report it weakening towards the last couple of furlongs…. Hopefully the shorter trip should suit this time out. Hard to pick any potential winners here, although Gardasee and Zabeel tower will be well fancied, I reckon Kylkenny has as good a chance as any.
    Was just going to post this one up and noticed your tip - hope this isnt a nail in the coffin :loon but has a great chance and a free one at E/W methinks :ok

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay Hi Fatz, Glad you're following, and hope you haven't lost much. Yes, previously I looked for the best value to post at the lowest odds. Now I shall post a matchable value selection but within a higher price band, which hopefully will turn things around.

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay For any followers still around :loon I've been looking back through my results of the last 6 months to try and find an answer to this apparent outperformance, my conclusion has been that by inadvertantly trying to reduce the losses on a single pick per day my selections have been at the lower end of the market which it turns out isnt the most profitable. I will start making selections from a higher "band" of prices, and try and turn these losses around - in the mean time I will keep an eye on lower end selections to see if this is a good BACKING model. Today's value :- Uttoxeter 2:45 ... Prince de Bersy (max lay 7.2) current price 6.40

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay

    2:40 Curragh ... MyBoyCharlie (max lay price 6.50) current price 4.20
    1st and won easily ... there's something strange going on here they maybe poor value but they keep winning maybe I've found away of highlighting the "gambles" :loon Staked 1 point ... returned -3.20 points
    Staked14.00
    Profit-15.60
    Yield-111%
    Wins7
    Strike50.00%

    Newmarket (July) 30/6/07

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Newmarket (July) 30/6/07 Newmarket 1:50 ... Prince Desire ...E/W @ 14/1 Stonking value for a Hills/Hills combo - 2nd time out and far from out of it on it's first run 9th but beaten only 6 lengths over 6f and with 7f this time looks better suited ... should place at a nice price.

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay

    Today's Value :- Wolves 2:50 ... Atlantic Gamble (max lay price 5.70) current price 4.40
    5th ... 1 point staked ... 1 point returned Ok - Let's get this strike rate up a bit.
    Staked13.00
    Profit-12.40
    Yield-95%
    Wins7
    Strike53.85%

    Calculating Odds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Calculating Odds

    First thing I got the current best price odds from attr. 11/10 Home Sweet Home 5/4 Just Lille 6/1 News of the Day 50/1 Craig Y Nos I figured the Bookies think the horses chances of winning are as follows. 90% 80% 16% 2%
    If you add up the %'s they should equal 100% The formula for converting odds to a % is 1/(odds + 1) * 100 (1) 1/(1.1 + 1) * 100 = 47.62% (2) 1/(1.25 + 1) * 100 = 44.44% (3) 1/(6 + 1) * 100 = 14.26% (4) 1/(50 + 1) * 100 = 1.96% In this case the % is over 100% because they were the best prices available from all bookmakers - if you were to calculate the prices from 1 bookmaker it WILL be below 100% and usually around 92-94% mark so they make a profit on whatever outcome.

    Calculating Odds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Calculating Odds Well done on your calculations !! My advice would be to paper trial different rating sources for your calculations. If it gets too much just try one meeting a day. The hard work is in finding a reliable method but once you do you will profit.

    Calculating Odds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Calculating Odds

    I find the term value quite subjective, if someone offers 1000 to one on a horse which I think should be 150/1 is that still value? People use the term value in a way which is taken to mean by getting value over the long term you should win more than you lose but im pretty sure if I kept backing 150/1 shots at 1000/1 I would still lose out over time.
    As long as your rating are accurate and you were offered 1000/1 on a 150/1 shot then yes that is tremendous value and over time you would make a very nice profit (in a perfect world) on each 151st attempt you would get 1000 back. In reality you could get 2 results like that together then have to wait 2,000 more attempts before another one and a rare few would have that amount of patience, dedication and belief. Read this link it changed my betting totally. http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/value.htm :ok

    Calculating Odds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Calculating Odds

    In this example I have calculated ratings using a point based system for a 5 horse race. Horse 4 was rated 7pts which converts to a 6.09% chance of winning. If I wanted to bet on this horse but wanted to ensure value, if I was to look on betfair I should be looking to match 15.42 (decimal) or at someone like Hills 14/1 (rounded down for simplicity) or above.
    In the example of horse (4) the "fair odds" would be 15.42/1 at bookmakers odds or 16.42 on the exchanges (real life prices would be 16/1 but you know where I'm coming from) - this would mean that if your pricing up a race was accurate over time you would break even at that price. When you look for "value" you are looking to beat the "fair price" - you can go either way with this - if this horse was on offer for 8/1 you should be looking to LAY this price - if the price was 25/1 you should look to BACK at this price. How much "value" you are looking for is a personal thing.

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay

    How do you rate a horse with no form? Criteria?
    Yes there is much information still available - breeding, trainer, jockey but also importantly the other runners - I had this horse rated 4th and hence a value lay at the price.
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