Kanga
-
Posts
777 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Kanga
-
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor.
This is where it gets complicated by how many bets a method gives - how good the strike rate is - how much you are willing to stake - the likelyhood of bankruptcy etc etc. In the examples provided - I'm assuming the bets quoted are level stakes. The Home 60% away 50% the figures has :-surely staking the same 50,000 points on the second example, gives you a higher profit of 3,000? it's up to you how much you stake, but a greater yield or efficiency will always return more money, given that the same amount is staked.
The Home 80% away 50% figures are :-Wins 140 Bets 210 Strike 66.7% Yield 8.7% Profit 18.23
h80 a50 is twice as efficient as h60 a50 with half the bets but would it be wise to double the stakes given the strike rate of around 70% ?Wins 72 Bets 102 Strike 70.6% Yield 17.0% Profit 17.29 -
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor.
Hi Muppet, Thanks again and superb postings :- :clap My reasoning for saying profit being better is this :- Yield is the total profit divided by the total amount staked – basically it’s an efficiency rating. To my mind if you make a profit of 1,000 points where you have staked a total of 50,000 points that's better than making a profit of 600 points staking a total of 10,000 points, even though in the first case the "yield" is 2% and in the second case the "yield" is 6%.really? i'm not sure profit is the best measure. surely yield is what it's about??? -
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well it wouldnt be the first time i got things around the wrong way - don't ask me to do anything involving mitred corners :loon BUT another way to look at this is not to back home teams at 60% - the yield from home teams jumps dramatically at 80% :drums Just a side thought - would the profit be greater with H60 A50 @ 210 matches an 8.7% yield or H80 A50 @ 102 matches and 17.0% yield Yield is fine but profit is what it's all about :)
-
Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) Hi Slapdash, I understood what you are saying as we were talking in the context of reducing the plateau stake system when a team lost and percentile staking does this. If I understand correctly DP's main concern to the optimal 20% percentile was going bankrupt. You mentioned "practical problems" and that you didn't advocate 20% percentile stakes - so where does this leave us with the kelly formula ? I don't mean this to sound sarcastic as I am genuinely interested because as the stake to return and yield is low anything to optimise the stakes and increase the profits would be of benefit. Cheers.
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Merlin, Sure - it's just that I didnt explain myself very well the first time and I am interested in "optimizing" past results to use as a basis for a system I have. Cheers
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Sorry Merlin - I dont understand what you are saying please can you explain this to my simple mind - the home% stays the same and the away% increases - so the number of home selections (and results) would be the same but the number of away selections would decrease (as in theory would their odds) - it appears to me that the away selections at low odds don't pull their weight and have a negative effect on the yield.
-
Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) I think I see the problem - 20% of the bank is the optimum staking plan to grow the pot which is great for individual matches - the problem is that most of the matches kick off at the same time and last weekend was a prime example - therefore it's not possible to adjust the bank 20% for each individual bet - which brings the bankruptcy into context that DP is talking about. Would a solution be to assume a loss and bet 20% on the first match and say 18% on the 2nd and 16% on the 3rd ?
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Excellent stuff there Muppet - I love figures !! - LOL Interesting that the away results actually decreases the yield as the away % get higher. I may just stick to the home wins - If it isnt too much trouble and out of curiosity what would the home 60% and away 45% results be ? Cheers.
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi, Has anybody got any previous data on this predictor - are premiership matches more "predictable" than the championship or euro matches. Would a cut off of of 62% for home wins be more reliable than 60% ? I'm thinking of using this as a way of narrowing down selection for my own method as well as following this thread. TIA
-
Re: Value Estimations v1.1 Thanks Merlin, So just to clarify the x2 is placed as 2 seperate bets and the odds quoted of 1.5 is the average of the draw and away win odds ?
-
Re: Value Estimations v1.1 Djordje, forgive my ignorance as I'm new here but I don't understand a couple of things - in the pick columns it says underneath yes or no what does this mean exactly - also in the same column the selection is marked 1 or x or 2 which I can understand - but one of the sleections says x2 ? TIA
-
Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) DP, Could you do me a favour and look back through past seasons betting on the FA Cup and see if they fall into line with the pattern. I have this niggling feeling in the back of my mind that the FA Cup is different to all other "regular" league matches - I guess the only way I can try to explain this is that some teams or individual team members may just subconsciously feel that a draw will be good enough as they always have the replay - Lower league teams need all the revenue thay can and may even be told to play for a draw - of course this may be my inane ramblings but I have this uneasy feeling and wondered if statistics bared this out.
-
Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Hi All Newbie Poster, :ok although I've been looking around the forum and this particular thread with much interest for a while now - I've started a spreadsheet and have even invented my own version of this sytem which is working well. The question I have is how do you stop your heart ruling your head and keep strictly to the sytem / strategy ? Today I got my wallet burnt because I followed my own home team (although not strictly to my strategy but ultra close) they lost and it cancelled out all the other winners today :wall TIA
Times Newspaper Predictor.
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Merlin, this is your thread and your initial estimate of H60% A50% was remarkably accurate as a cut off point - I don't believe it was a random pick but an intuition :clap I've noticed in other threads you mention other predictors - would you be kind enough to share the links with me and your thoughts on their accuracy ? The thoughts of cross reference and comparison is appealing. :loon