[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. It's not a problem to post the complete tables - as I have to work them all out anyway :loon I just thought it would save space and look a little neater on the thread. Interesting what you say about just using TP & BG - I've been keeping stats on this and with the method I use TP & BG on their own produce a 69% strike rate - whereas combining the MW & odds filter as well = 77% Glad the tables are of interest - :ok

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Would you guys like me to keep posting all the matches & results or just the selections ?

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well another winner (low odds but still correct) now making 10 from 12

F A Cup	TP	BG	MW	Odds	Result
Chelsea vs Everton	75.9%	57%	1-0	1.29	4-1 :loon

Premiership	TP	BG	MW	Odds	Result
Charlton vs Liverpool	22.3%	44%	1-0		2-0

Total Staked		300
Total Returned		361.96
Yield		1.207	20.65%
Winners		23
Losers		7
Strike Rate		77%
Current Bank		161.96
Profit / Loss		61.96

:ok

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks Guy's - have another for you tonight sorry it's a bit late - as before odds quoted are bet365 but there is better available.

Date	F A Cup	TP	BG	MW	Odds
08/02/06	Chelsea vs Everton	75.9%	57%	1-0	1.29

Date	Premiership	TP	BG	MW	Odds
08/02/06	Charlton vs Liverpool	22.3%	44%	1-0

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. The figures showed it would be close - and incidentally pointed to the bury draw as well - but not part of the system.

League 1	TP	BG	MW	Odds	Result
Colchester vs Scunthorpe	64.8%	65%	3-2	1.57	1-0 :loon

League 2	TP	BG	MW	Odds	Result
Buryvs Rushden Diamonds	44.8%	57%	1-1		1-1

Total Staked			290
Total Returned			349.20
Yield			1.204	20.41%
Winners			22
Losers			7
Strike Rate			76%
Current Bank			159.20
Profit / Loss			59.20

:ok

[Michael Wray Spreadsheet system]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Sorry McGin, I didn't know if you knew that MW updates them on his site and I thought you mean't you had to enter all the stats from the start of the season. Very interesting figures you reported - may be worth a try laying the draws. As I only back home winners I've been keeping some home stats and I agree with you overall home wins are 48% - but 2 goal win predictions are 65% accurate.

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Ok a mid week selection for you :-

Date	League 1	TP	BG	MW	Odds
07/02/06	Colchester vs Scunthorpe	64.8%	65%	3-2	1.57

Date	League 2	TP	BG	MW	Odds
07/02/06	Buryvs Rushden Diamonds	44.8%	57%	1-1

Date	Premiership	TP	BG	MW	Odds
08/02/06	Charlton vs Liverpool	22.3%	33%	1-0

[Michael Wray Spreadsheet system]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Probably the easiest way - would be to download the latest sheets direct from MW site then manually update - they are done up to 20th Jan. http://www.michaelwray.co.nz/sheets.html

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks for the kind words the results are looking positive what I'm pleased about are the odds 1.60 average - I'm going to keep updating the bank as we go so :hope I like the thought of a number of predictors as it evens out the bias of individual systems - it's annoying when a winner is lost by just one negative column but from the calculations so far this is the best way forward.

[Profitable Lay System +228 points profit]

Re: Profitable Lay System Danny, Excellent system unfortunately in the Wetherby race the odds were staked against you 4 selections in the top 5 betting odds in a field of 9. Tysou was a bummer though - keep up the good work.

[1% 'Steady Drip']

Re: 1% 'Steady Drip' How about splitting the pot when you get to £100 (or some other figure) build it up then split again - when the loser eventually hits you won't have lost all the previous work and may well have a few nice runs going.

[Michael Wray Spreadsheet system]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi Merlin, Looks promising, I had a brief look at >2.5 where 4 goals were predicted and the results weren't so good. But the average goals for all the Uk leagues are 2.44 so Under 2.5 seems the best way to go.

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. I can only put it down to F A Cup fallout and midweek scheduling - I heard on the radio Arsenal had a lot of key players suspended or injured maybe that was true of others as well - anyway ............ The combination system is still in profit but only just - 5 losers from the last 8 selections - here's hoping for a better weekend.

[Michael Wray Spreadsheet system]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Personally I took Fools suggestion as a positive but also a tongue in cheek suggestion - laying all the selections imho is a lot of work for little reward and there are more efficient lay methods. Some stats I've been accessing over the last 3 weeks are MW - 2+ Goal win Margin 15 selections 11/4 = 73% MW - 1 Goal win Margin 46 Selections 24/22 = 52% I havent tracked the over/under stats My personal take and in the original spirit of the thread is your 2 goal idea.

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Yep it was a funny set of results - I'm tracking numerous combinations of all the stats and none had a good showing - fingers crossed for the mid-week results.

[Slapdash systems 2006]

Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Ain't it just ******** typical :loon The day I'm away from my computer and 3 results - LOL Tell you what, how about I tell you when I'm not on ..... Excellent work !!

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Plausible, and :welcome to Punter's Lounge. Thanks both for the kind words, it's fun to do and is showing promise. I'm actually feeling a bit guilty now as it's invading this thread. Shall I give it until the midweek results and if they're still looking good start a new strategy thread - Any thoughts ?

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor.

Championship	TP	BG	MW	Result
Watford vs Crewe	70.0%	68%	3-0	4-1

League 1	TP	BG	MW	Result
Bournmouth vs Chest'field	41.8%	37%	1-0	1-2
Bradford vs Tranmere	25.9%	30%	0-2	0-0
Bristol City vs Swansea	55.3%	41%	2-1	1-0
Gillingham vs Rotherham	36.3%	64%	3-0	1-1
Hartlepool vs Blackpool	55.8%	45%	1-0	0-3
Huddersfield vs Oldham	42.0%	41%	1-0	3-2

League 2	TP	BG	MW	Result
Bury vs Northampton	27.1%	24%	1-2	0-2
Chester vs Notts County	51.0%	54%	1-0	0-2
Darlington vs Mansfield	45.4%	52%	2-1	4-0
Grimsby vs Peterborough	35.6%	55%	1-0	1-2
Lincoln vs Bristol Rovers	50.9%	38%	3-2	1-0
Rochdale vs Boston Utd	44.0%	25%	0-1	1-1
Rushden vs Oxford Utd	49.8%	19%	0-2	1-1
Shrewsbury vs Torquay	40.5%	63%	2-1	0-1
Wycombe vs Stockport	65.7%	69%	3-1	1-1

FA CUP	TP	BG	MW	Result
Man City vs Wigan	52.1%	49%	2-1	1-0

Mixed results today 2 wins a draw and a loss from 4 selections - for a small overall loss.

[Slapdash systems 2006]

Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hmmmm .... I wonder if they are watching this thread :dude

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Here’s the comparison list for this week a bit depleted because of the FA Cup but 3 home selections (4 if you want to include the FA Cup)

Date	Championship	TP	BG	MW
28/01/06	Watford vs Crewe	70.0%	68%	3-0

Date	League 1	TP	BG	MW
28/01/06	Bournmouth vs Chest'field	41.8%	37%	1-0
28/01/06	Bradford vs Tranmere	25.9%	30%	0-2
28/01/06	Bristol City vs Swansea	55.3%	41%	2-1
28/01/06	Gillingham vs Rotherham	36.3%	64%	3-0
28/01/06	Hartlepool vs Blackpool	55.8%	45%	1-0
28/01/06	Huddersfield vs Oldham	42.0%	41%	1-0

Date	League 2	TP	BG	MW
28/01/06	Bury vs Northampton	27.1%	24%	1-2
28/01/06	Chester vs Notts County	51.0%	54%	1-0
28/01/06	Darlington vs Mansfield	45.4%	52%	2-1
28/01/06	Grimsby vs Peterborough	35.6%	55%	1-0
28/01/06	Lincoln vs Bristol Rovers	50.9%	38%	3-2
28/01/06	Rochdale vs Boston Utd	44.0%	25%	0-1
28/01/06	Rushden vs Oxford Utd	49.8%	19%	0-2
28/01/06	Shrewsbury vs Torquay	40.5%	63%	2-1
28/01/06	Wycombe vs Stockport	65.7%	69%	3-1

Just for fun the only FA Cup that we can work out produces a selection

Date	FA CUP	TP	BG	MW
28/01/06	Man City vs Wigan	52.1%	49%	2-1

[Times Newspaper Predictor.]

Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. We lead busy lives - I'm out friday night so I'll get them done as soon as I can - might be Saturday morning though - I'll have to see how it plans out - but they will be done :ok

[Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at -2% )]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.79% ) Thanks DP - I've been made to feel very welcome so I'm now rambling :loon Ok guys I don't mean to keep pushing the point but help me with this thought process - wouldn't the odds be "tightened" for the draw in the FA Cup - we have 2 scenarios :- 1) the underdog playing away to get a home match. 2) the unknown home side playing to get a match away at a top premier league ground for much needed revenue. If the bookies are to be trusted ( I do) my take is that the odds will be "tightened" for the draw - which will have the effect of pushing out prices on the win - and it's this slight movement which worries me. I've been trying to get 5% above average odds on the usual selections - In the FA Cup I think I'll be going for 10%. (These are my own figures and thoughts) Please remember that past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future and investments may fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested :rollin

[Michael Wray Spreadsheet system]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi Foolsgold, Just a couple of thoughts I had - If we as individuals were to pick every single match and predict an outcome each week - the chances are we would all show a negative yield - A lot of matches are finely balanced and we would steer clear of them a goal this way or that ......etc etc. My personal feeling is that many or if not all prediction engines would show a negative yield covering all matches for that reason alone - then add in the bookies bias and other factors - it's not easy. What we are doing here is trying to find if this system has a profitable bias or leaning - which means splitting it into smaller subsets - Mike may not have designed this for gambling or places bets himself but to me that doesnt mean it's not a good tool for the purpose - it could be argued that on that basis it's ideal for the purpose. Once that selection is made then we can look for value - find the average bookies odds and use the information to our advantage.

[Michael Wray Spreadsheet system]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system So where was we ? :gimme

[Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at -2% )]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.79% ) Hi DP, I can understand the caution :eek A question I have been thinking over & over in my mind is does the fa cup really fit this system ? The selections are based on the odds and getting a good value of those odds - the majority of matches in the system are played in the same league against teams of similar "standards" where the result is part of a "long haul" through the season - balance reigns. The fa cup puts together 2 teams from different leagues who play at completely different paces and skills - it's also a knockout event in that the result of that match means something different to each team - some teams will purposefully play for a draw and set out game plans & formations to try and achieve this - every year a certain team will have a run against the odds and in the process they "gain a following" which will feel to them like a home advantage - not quite so balanced. The bottom line I have been trying to ponder is do the odds reflect this - which is the basis of the system. Antbody else got any thoughts / ideas ?