Kanga
-
Posts
777 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Kanga
-
-
Re: Football: Fleet's Potential draws Yep, you're right Osesame, thats what I had on paper but I typed in wrong and didn't double check :spank Now ammended for future readers.
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well, I've just re-checked all the TP ratings and they are the same :ok Swansea dropped from 50% to 44% yesterday but as it wasnt a pick I didn't change it (match ended 2-2 so a good change to below 48%) :hope
-
Re: Football: Fleet's Potential draws Hi FF, Be interesting to see ... just a thought I had - some leagues are more prone to draws that others... may or may not be worth factoring but something to keep an eye on. Prem = 21% Champ = 31% L 1 = 31% L 2 = 34% Conf = 25% :ok
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hmmmm... that doesn't sound good :unsure Merlin - Can you check the MW figures I've posted in the tables and see if you agree with me or DavidC please. Cheers :ok
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi DavidC, Can you just check the MW thread - Merlin very recently posted the matches on there that havent been played yet - do they match with your tables ? Cheers :ok
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Whooooosh .........way over my tiny brain I'm afraid :loon But I'm glad that TP has some merits and it's a vital part of this thread. Any ideas how Betting Genius & Michael Wrays Spreadsheets are Calculated ? Is there an easy way to explain the various methodology in laymens terms ? :ok
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Cavelloman, You can work out international games - on the main menu click - Game Simulator - it's not quite the same as the 7 day predictor as it doesnt include shots on goal but still a good indicator nonetheless :ok
-
Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Good Idea & Very helpful - Cheers Merlin.
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks David, I must post that TP can sometimes change nearer Saturday - I'm surprised Reading arent auto picked but they are only out by 0.1% and that may change - If it does I'll update and amend all selections. Also If you're laying these and the selections are too many - lay the ones by the 2 clear goals or more MW ratings.
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. "Lay the Away" yield is 12.3% "Win Only" yield is 6.11%
-
Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Merlin, I have these extra to you Championship
League 207-Feb-06 Leeds UnitedCrystal Palace 18-Feb-06 Preston North EndCrewe Alexandra
You have listed is this a typo ? Leyton O v28-Jan-06 Leyton Orient Barnet 11-Feb-06 Rochdale Barnet 15-Feb-06 Boston Chester City Barnsley Rochdale vBarnsley Cheers -
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Results to date :-
Home Win only
Cover the Draw
Lay the Away
65% Strike Rate
93% Strike Rate
93% Strike Rate
3.48 Points
11.48 Points
29.4 Points (after commission)
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Cavelloman, Thanks for you're input - That's some impressive figures & statistics you've got there - I certainly agree that value is the way to go with any system. The method that we're following on this thread uses a combination of 3 predictors to average out any inbuilt bias of just one. For example for selecting home wins only - TP on it's own is proving to be 56% succesful - whereas the combination is 65% succesful. For selecting "double chance" - TP is 85% the combination 93%. It typically throws out around 8 selections on a weekend - I would be very interested to see the value of the selections chosen if you are willing to have a look back in later. I hope to get them listed tonight :ok
-
Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Good News FF - as I layed Charlton :ok Your ratings are spot on bud - keep up the good work :clap
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi DavidC, Thanks for the tip off I hadn't noticed the inverter :ok I've added the formula above into an excel spreadsheet I use for tracking all the selections. So far it works out that "laying the away" beats "double chance" by 3-5% on average - which is a fair amount by the end of the season. But occasionally the "double chance" works out the better bet. For the system to work we need around an 80% strike rate - so far it's averaging 93%.
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well 2 close matches for the system but profitable again nonetheless (depending on how you backed them)
Date
LDV Vans Trophy
TP
BG
MW
Result
21/02/06 Carlisle v Macclesfield
58%
51%
2-0
2-1
I'll report back with the weekends fixtures later :okDate
Premiership
TP
BG
MW
Result
22/02/06 Newcastle v Charlton
53.1%
60%
2-1
0-0
-
Re: 1% 'Steady Drip' Hi Hodgey, excellent thread :clap and great fun :hope with bet 18 but I don't think you'll need it. It was little old me who suggested splitting the pot at £100 - One of the reasons for suggesting this is because how much can you actually lay at what are unlikely results ? - laying £700 at the end of the year on one event could prove difficult.
-
Re: Promising Apprentice Hope so I've just done it - :hope
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. You may well be right Merlin old friend - but Charlton haven't the best away form on record - in their last 6 games away they've scored only 5 and let in 14 - Newcastle at home have scored 7 and conceeded 4. Personally I think MW's got it about right 2-1 or 1-1 :hope
-
Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Nicely done FF :clap Got any figures for Newcastle tomorrow ?
-
Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system :drums A victory for fluid thinking and perserverance :drums
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi LL, Yep last minute goal - I had layed Macclesfield and was fearing a goal the other way - but another for the system :ok David - yep I'm a bit concerned over Newcastle but I wouldn't have picked a number of the ones the system does so I've learnt to trust it - having said that I've layed Charlton so the draw is covered :loon
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Ok - I've been looking into "laying the away" method of backing the selections - and as previously reported the drawback is the amount of bank needed for a reasonable stake - not so bad for the midweek - but with 5-8 selections on a Saturday the bank needs to be quite large. There is an alternative called "double chance" which does the same thing only you are backing (1x) so the bank needed is only the stake amount. I've been using bestbetting to look into the best odds available - "double chance" seems to be only available at bet365, ladbrokes or sportingodds. Convienient - but how do you know which method is VALUE ? Obviously you pick the best odds of the 3 companies offering "double chance"above but to compare with laying on betfair - here's the calculation. Lets use the Carlisle v Macclesfield selection above as an example :- Best Odds are 1.62 - 4.0 - 6.35 (after commision) Lets call these odds A, B, C using an arb calculation on A & B to find (1x) A/(A+B) then B/(A+B) = 0.288 & 0.712 0.288 x B = 1.152 0.712 x A = 1.153 So the best odds for the 1x double chance is 1.15 sportingodds have the double chance 1x at 1.14 which is very good as the prices above are the best prices from different bookies. But what about laying on betfair the calculation is this 1+ (1/(C-1)) so in our example to lay macclesfield would be 1.187 There you go simple :loon I've noticed that sometimes the double chance oidds offered are very good :ok
-
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Only 3 matches in the midweek and 2 selections -
Date
LDV Vans Trophy
TP
BG
MW
21/02/06 Carlisle v Macclesfield
58%
51%
2-0 :hope
Date
Premiership
TP
BG
MW
22/02/06 Newcastle v Charlton
53.1%
60%
2-1:hope
Date
League 1
TP
BG
MW
24/02/06 Swansea v Huddersfield
50.8%
40%
2-1
Times Newspaper Predictor.
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well from the 10 selections today 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (Brentford) - so 70% for the wins only and 90% for the lay method which is about what we are running at and making a steady profit. I'll post the actual results later and remind you of these 2 for tommorrow.
Date
Premiership
TP
BG
MW
Odds
49.4%
58%
2-1
1.80 :hope
64.2%
67%
1-0
1.53 :hope
42.8%
55%
2-1