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Kanga

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Posts posted by Kanga

    Times Newspaper Predictor.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Merlin - If you lay a team £10 - you win £10 if they don't win (think of it that you are acting as the bookie taking a bet) - the trouble is that you have to have the bet covered in your account. Take tonights match Torquay are 6.3 at the moment to lay on betfair - if you lay £10 you have to have £53 in your account to cover the bet. Hope that made sense :ok

    Times Newspaper Predictor.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. 31 wins - 14 draws - 3 losses Let's just assume that we cover the wins with a draw. The average odds for the wins are 1.62 and I've calculated the average odds for the draw are 3.60 - The best way to split the stake is this :- 1.62 * .722 points 3.60 * .278 points given that the draws will return back the stake - this leaves :- 31 * .722 (stake) * 0.62 (odds) - 3 points (loss) = 10.88 points profit the current win only system is showing a 2.34 point profit.

    Times Newspaper Predictor.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hmmmmm - I was wondering that Merlin - but the selection for this thread has been set and I can't really change midstream. But for those following the tables it may be an idea to cover the draw - I haven't figured the numbers for this though. OK these are the numbers that I have been crunching - for 230 matches played over the last month. The instinctive cut off of 48% works - you'll just have to trust me :rollin

    Predictor

    #

    Wins

    Draws

    Loss

    Win %

    TP (48%+)

    90

    51

    27

    12

    57%

    BG (48%+)

    103

    57

    30

    16

    55%

    MW (3 goal)

    10

    7

    2

    1

    70%

    MW (2 goal)

    37

    21

    13

    3

    57%

    MW (1 goal)

    77

    35

    21

    21

    45%

    MW (overall)

    124

    63

    36

    25

    51%

    TP & BG (both 48%+)

    59

    37

    16

    6

    63%

    TP & MW (overall)

    65

    37

    21

    7

    57%

    BG & MW (overall)

    81

    46

    23

    12

    57%

    TP + BG + MW

    48

    31

    14

    3

    65%

    For the first few weeks BG was 61% - this last week hasnt been so good as the BG thread shows. Any thoughts welcome :ok

    Times Newspaper Predictor.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks Merlin, I've been looking at the losers of this system so far only 11 matches (7 draws, 3 losses) but in those 11 these teams appear twice :- Wigan , Bolton , Chelsea , Arsenal , Wycombe. I don't want to over analyse this and start avoiding teams - but there is a certain consistency forming that I feel good about. If the strike rate of 70% holds and with average odds of 1.62 - the yield should be very good around 13.4% I calculate - :ok

    Times Newspaper Predictor.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Plausible, Just ran the figures and it was 51 / 33 /16 with my filter and 51 /35 /15 using the standard set - so not much difference there I'm afraid. I'm just going through the results to see whats what. ***ing Bolton they fell short last week and exceeded themselves this. Middlesboro loose 4-0 at home to Aston Villa last week & then this week beat Chelsea 3-0 at home. It's a funny ol game !!!!

    Times Newspaper Predictor.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks Guys, Plausible - the BG figures may be different to the ones you get as standard and on the BG thread - I use a filter that I believe is the most accurate over all the leagues results. David - Good luck if you've had a punt on any glad they help. Merlin - Cheers again for your support

    Times Newspaper Predictor.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well another winner - and a 3-0 MW prediction to boot always a good sign.

    Championship

    TP

    BG

    MW

    Odds

    Results

    Reading vs Southampton

    57.2%

    83%

    3-0

    1.44

    2-0 :loon

    League 1

    TP

    BG

    MW

    Odds

    Results

    Hartlepool vs Chesterfield

    48.0%

    11%

    0-2

    1-0

    Southend vs Rotherham

    40.5%

    68%

    2-1

    2-0

    Total Staked

    310

    Total Returned

    376.14

    Yield

    1.213

    21.33%

    Winners

    24

    Losers

    7

    Strike Rate

    77%

    Current Bank

    166.14

    Profit / Loss

    66.14

    Tomorrows picks to follow :ok

    Times Newspaper Predictor.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Have to remember the 5% on betfair - but I was really meaning that the price was VALUE any better is a bonus. Have a look at Readings last 6 match home goal record to Southamptons last 6 away goal record ;) Southend would be a pick but TP doesnt go for it on the usual 7 day predictor which is used - on the individual match system it picks it as a win so you may well be ok - but I can't highlight it on this system. My personal opinion would be a Southend 1-0 or 2-1 win :ok

    Times Newspaper Predictor.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Another selection for tonight and IMHO it's a cracker 1.44 bet365 is good value.

    Date

    		Championship

    TP

    BG

    MW

    Odds

    10/02/06

    		Reading vs Southampton

    57.2%

    83%

    3-0

    1.44 :hope

    Date

    		League 1

    TP

    BG

    MW

    Odds

    10/02/06

    		Hartlepool vs Chesterfield

    48.0%

    11%

    0-2

    10/02/06

    		Southend vs Rotherham

    40.5%

    68%

    2-1

    :ok

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