Kanga
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Posts posted by Kanga
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system :ok You da Man :ok
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Cheers me dears :loon I thought it would be profitable. Sounds good to me Merlin - there's money to be made in them there hills.
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Interesting stuff McGin :clap have you looked into laying the away 3-0 predictions - this is a method I was thinking of employing .
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Re: 1% 'Steady Drip' Me thinks DP ith taking the pith - look at the thread title :loon
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Cheers Merlin - I was hoping to get away from doing it on an individual basis - If I have a formula I can plug it into excel and it will do most of the work - I think I've got it sorted now with help from slapdashes keen mind :ok
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Re: Lay Mark Lawrenson Who's to say he's not using a predictor and just adding comments to them :loon
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Excellent work FF :clap
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Re: Profitable Lay System Danny - What's happened - keep 'em coming !! :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Ok - I'll keep posting the win - lay & the cover figures so we can track the progress. Anybody have a formula to work out the arb of 2 selections that I can add to excel - I have a program that works it out - but it would be easier to let excel do it.
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Thanks Merlin - I've got myself organised for once and I'm getting hooked on excel :loon Looks like a quiet midweek for the english divisions - be interested to see the european 3-0 selections. :ok
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Out to add that the table above is just for English top 4 divisions over the last 5 weeks.
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Nice one again, Merlin :clap If it helps I have these stats for MW :-
3-0 is the way to go IMHO :okTotal
Win
Draw
Loss
%
MW (3 goal)
12
8
2
2
67%
MW (2 goal)
39
21
13
5
54%
MW (1 goal)
85
39
25
21
46%
MW (overall)
136
68
40
28
50%
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well that nicely leads me into the next subject I was going to raise :- Because we've been "fluid" with our method and analysis - it's now morphed into this current system. Betting suggestions have now been forwarded to make the best of it. Personally I like the "lay the away" method as I call it now :cheers and I've adapted my spreadsheet program to account for it so I can track the progress. What would be the census of opinion - shall I continue to post the win only stakes - cover the draw - lay the away or ............??? Anybody have any thoughts on the arb method LL suggested earlier ?
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Yep the trouble with the lay method and 6.00 odds - 5 wins ( inc the draw) evens out the loss. BUT - these are average odds NOT value odds - I believe you can easily do 3-5% better than quoted. 93% isnt a bad strike rate though :loon
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Just realised this is the 3rd time in just over a month that Wigan have been included and each time they have scuppered the result - what is it about them ? Apologies to any fans viewing - :loon
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. The Spurs match was not quite as predicted but depending on how you backed it not so disasterous.
Premiership
TP
BG
MW
Results
60.5%
50%
2-1
2-2 :unsure
:okHome Win only
Cover the Draw
Lay the Away
65% Strike Rate
93% Strike Rate
93% Strike Rate
3.87 Points
11.03 Points
27.5 Points (after commission)
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Don't forget 1 selection for today -
Let's make this a good weekend - system profit/loss results to follow.Premiership
TP
BG
MW
Odds
60.5%
50%
2-1
1.66
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Great Work - Merlin :clap I sort of mentioned this on the TP thread but look at these results they weren't just scraping home with a win :-
:okTeam
MW
Result
Reading Southampton 3
2-0
Man Utd vs Fulham
3
4-2
Coventry Brighton 3
2-0
Newcastle Portsmouth 3
2-0
Watford vsCrewe 3
4-1
Arsenal vs Middlesboro
3
7-0
Huddersfield v M K Dons3
5-0
Carlisle v Rushden & D'monds3
5-0
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. 4 wins and a loss - can't complain !!!
Notice how the teams that are picked this week and last are the ones that are winning by a good margin.Championship
TP
BG
MW
Results
20.5%
20%
1-2
0-1
58.0%
48%
2-1
1-0:clap
43.3%
25%
1-1
1-1
29.6%
27%
0-1
1-1
43.4%
42%
2-2
2-0
50.2%
59%
2-1
(3-1):clap
29.7%
24%
0-0
1-2
54.8%
18%
1-2
1-0
League 1
TP
BG
MW
Results
50.2%
49%
1-2
1-1
43.1%
30%
2-2
1-1
45.4%
28%
0-1
3-4
42.8%
53%
1-0
2-0
52.5%
68%
3-0
5-0:clap
38.7%
48%
2-2
0-2
42.3%
25%
1-2
2-2
30.6%
71%
2-0
2-3
59.1%
38%
1-1
0-1
51.3%
41%
1-1
0-2
League 2
TP
BG
MW
Results
35.6%
35%
1-0
1-1
54.2%
44%
1-1
2-2
39.9%
45%
2-1
0-0
Carlisle v Rushden
58.4%
57%
3-0
5-0:clap
42.9%
17%
0-2
0-2
48.7%
48%
3-1
0-1:wall
28.2%
45%
2-1
1-1
41.6%
48%
1-1
2-2
31.5%
33%
1-2
1-2
43.7%
14%
0-1
1-1
50.4%
26%
1-2
P-P
:ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well it's half time and things are shaping up nicely :-
:ok1-0
2-0
3-0
Carlisle v Rushden2-0
0-0
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks LL - I tried to PM you for advice - I made the mistake of taking the 3 losses as -18 points. Now Edited tables above - Cheers :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Ok another winner :- 32 wins - 14 draws - 3 losses LL – Can you check my figures for the lay method assuming ave odds of 6.00 and 5% commission.
Championship
TP
BG
MW
Odds
Result
26.6 %
21%
2-2
3-2
League 2
TP
BG
MW
Odds
Result
61.7%
59%
1-0
1.50
1-0
Win only
Cover the Draw
Lay
2.84 Points
11.13 Points
28.7 Points ( after commission)
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Re: Promising Apprentice :clap Nice One !
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well it's got me thinking as well - the average lay works out to be very close to 6.00 with this methods selections. 45 (wins) * 1 point - 3 (losses) * 6 = 27 points profit. against 2.34 (win) or 10.88 (covering the draw) The trouble is that with 6 selections in one day you have to have 30 points in your betfair account to win 6 points. The advantage is that the draw counts in your favour when laying. Definitely worth keeping an eye on :ok
Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at -2% )
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +4.78% ) I know in the stock market there are accounts set up to invest in funds that have underperformed - knowing that they will recover as the manager needs to pull results out. I don't know wether it would be prudent to double the stakes as the yield drops below average (sounds a bit martingale) but personally I was always confident that you would get back to 4% again this season - :ok