Kanga
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Posts
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Posts posted by Kanga
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Re: Rateform And Value Odds Are these odds available from bookies or are these target figures to achieve ?
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Swagman - I've just checked the TP ratings only to find they are exactly the same as I've listed above - don't know why that should be ?
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Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.22% ) DP would Sheff Utd v Crewe ave odds @ 1.34 be considered by this method looks a solid home win by all the stats I've calculated ?
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi Davidc, Yes all games added and league tables checked and yet I still make Bradford v Blackpool 1-1 Lets wait and see what Merlin comes up with :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well spotted Swagman - I'll wait til tommorrow to update in case of anymore changes :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi David, Thanks for pointing out the discrepancies - I've just scrapped my old MW sheets and uploaded new ones (far easier to do than check & alter) I've changed the MW info in the tables above (no selection difference) - if you look at the MW thread you'll see that you are spot on :ok
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system OK rather than Feck about I decided to scrap the sheets I had and upload the newly updated versions from MW's site - it only entails entering 5 matches to be totally up to date....much easier than looking through all the other results. And here are my findings - I'm now going to ammend the sheets on the TP thread.
:okTeam
DavidC
Kanga
Merlin
Kanga (New)
Cardiff C v Sheffield W 2-0
1-0
2-0
2-0
Southhampton v Coventry 2-0
2-1
2-1
2-0
Huddersfield vDoncaster 3-1
3-0
3-1
3-1
Port Vale v MK Dons 3-2
3-1
3-1
3-2
Boston Northampton 1-2
1-1
1-1
1-2
Bury v Macclesfield 1-0
2-1
2-1
1-0
Cheltenham v Wycombe2-1
1-1
1-1
2-1
Rushden v Grimsby 2-0
1-1
2-1
2-0
Liverpool v Charltonxx
1-0
2-0
1-0
West Ham v Everton xx
1-1
1-0
1-1
Bradford vBlackpool xx
2-1
1-1
1-1
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi DavidC, Something funny is going on - I've checked all the leagues in the spreadsheet tables against the BBC ones and they all seem ok. Have you entered the midweek matches ? - it seems like the teams you have listed above played midweek - only thing I can think of :unsure
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles France 1 - 2 Slovakia was another strange one - I guess the bookies have to recoup some money to fund you FF :loon I managed to limit my losses but hopefully it will teach me to not stray from the path :spank
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles 3-0 now what a joke :loon
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Hope Sweden can do the same ..........................:unsure
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles No.......it's not :wall but there's still time to scrap out a draw :hope
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles I don't know if the system works on Internationals - but following FF's method and using the World Cup Qualifying tables - I've layed Ireland at 2.76 which is great value IMHO. Ireland are fielding a young side and Sweden are going virtually full strength.
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Seems to go that way FF - I've noticed that alternate weekends seem better for selections - I think it's due to some teams being better at home.
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well not quite as expected but as you know I've been "laying the away" so another winner :clap I'll mark it with an unsure emoticon as we keep tracking the betting systems.
Date
League 1
TP
BG
MW
Odds
28/02/06 39.4%
34%
0-2
1-1
28/02/06 42.8%
28%
1-2
1-2
28/02/06 40%
2-1
0-0
:okDate
League 2
TP
BG
MW
Odds
28/02/06 50.2%
60%
2-0
0-0 :unsure
28/02/06 45.3%
27%
0-1
1-1
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Man City looks very good Merlin - but sadly the odds aren't. We won't get mega rich on it but should be more in the pot :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Majid, Thanks for the kind words, it's takes a bit of time to compile the tables but it's proving worth it - I constantly check the %'s to see if any other combination is better but we seem to have hit the ground running with the method we initially set up - even though backing them may be different. Glad you're liking the thread - and the same to any other viewers out there who use the tables :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well it's a selection anyway - :moon ..... :loon Seriously there's a good correlation between FF's ratings and this method and it all adds to the confidence. I shall be getting the best lay price I can on Barnet that's for sure :ok
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles :notworthy you better keep this to yourself as the odds are going to plummit :notworthy
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Re: Lay the Fav during March (based on race TYPE) Nice one Danny - I'll be keeping an eye on this - I've got the anti-winner bug :loon
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Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi Merlin, Apologies for not posting - I checked the tables generated by my spreadsheets and compared them with the actual tables off of the BBC sports website. It turns out had entered a couple of games the wrong way round both 0-1 results I had entered as 1-0 :spank Anyway it's all sorted now - at least it shows that it makes a difference. :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. 1 selection for 28th :-
Date
League 1
TP
BG
MW
Odds
28/02/06 39.4%
34%
0-2
28/02/06 42.8%
28%
1-2
28/02/06 40%
2-1
Date
League 2
TP
BG
MW
Odds
28/02/06 50.2%
60%
2-0
1.61:hope
28/02/06 45.3%
27%
0-1
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well I thought they were the finished results - for some reason I missed the 2-3 :spank I must admit I don't concentrate so hard on the non-selections :loon Well the strike rates and yield are as follows. I have made an alteration to the figures as I wasn't calculating the "Lay the Away" correctly - these are now all based on a 1 point Stake or Lay.
:drumsHome Win only
ARB 1x
Lay the Away
65% Strike Rate
93% Strike Rate
93% Strike Rate
9.61% Yield
4.01% yield
12.13% Yield
6.63 Points Profit
2.77 Points
8.37 Points (after commission)
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Some good figures there Cavelloman :clap So just to confirm the amount of TP % isn't used to select the home wins - they are picked on VALUE which is TP% * Decimal Odds > 100. Average odds for you were 2.37 so only a > 42% strike rate needed to make a profit (assuming no commission) and you showed 62.5% (average home win % on all leagues is 44% by random selection) If that strike rate holds then you would have a VERY good system. Have you calculated the reverse using this method - chosing the worse value away teams to lay ? :ok
Times Newspaper Predictor.
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well another draw but also another win for the "lay the away"
Championship
TP
BG
MW
Result
Sheff Utd v Crewe
61.6%
52%
3-2
0-0 :unsure