Kanga
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Posts posted by Kanga
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Re: £60,000 in 12 months (No really) Wizard don't take offence, but look at this from the sites point of view, despite your good intentions you're posting selections and saying how much you have made after the event, because you are protecting the staking method and have suggested that you don't want to reveal it because it would affect your ability to place bets at those amounts. I'm struggling to see how this can benefit the rest of us onlookers whose interest you have gained, I hope you can find a way to continue.
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. TF, Merlin is running the MW 3-0 goal selection method on his MW thread and it's a very good method. But for this system using 3-0 cuts out too many selections - It works out that just the basic MW home win indicator is a very good filter. When I have time I will update the table I posted earlier detailing the various combination of methods. If anybody knows of another predictor - I could try and see if an improvement could be achieved but the current 94% isnt bad.
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Apologies for not posting the Stoke v Crystal Palace match last night it wasnt a pick for the system but I should have posted. Anyway here's the picks for tonight and a couple of selections at nice odds :-
Date
FA Cup
TP
BG
MW
Odds
14/03/06 Man City v Aston Villa
50.5%
54%
3-1
2.00:hope
Date
Championship
TP
BG
MW
Odds
14/03/06 Preston v Ipswich
55.9%
59%
2-1
1.72:hope
Date
League 1
TP
BG
MW
Odds
14/03/06 Rotherham vOldham 48.4%
32%
1-2
14/03/06 Scunthorpe vHartlepool 49.9%
29%
1-0
:okDate
League 2
TP
BG
MW
Odds
14/03/06 Macclesfield v Wrexham
25.5%
30%
1-2
14/03/06 Rochdale vGrimsby 37.9%
27%
1-1
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi TF, Thanks for working out all those past stats, it's great to know were on the right tracks - I have average away odds at 5.35 for this season if it's any help. Perhaps the term arb 1x in the tables is a little misleading but you're right that it achieves the same thing - I take the bet365 odds and split the % stake between win & draw to achieve the same return with either outcome - but it's nowhere near as profitable as laying the away team on betfair.
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. So here are the results and I'm pleased to say that "lay the Away" has doubled the bank in only 8 weeks !!! and that all staking methods are in profit.
Home Win only
ARB 1x
Lay the Away
63% Strike Rate
94% Strike Rate
94% Strike Rate
3.59% Yield
5.57% yield
14.06% Yield
3.09 Points Profit
4.79 Points
12.09 Points :clap
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well a good result again - final result over the weekend was 5 winners and 5 Draws - Loved the LL "slayers" quote :loon
Date
Premiership
TP
BG
MW
Odds
12/03/06 Man Utd v Newcastle
71.3%
76%
3-1
2-0:clap
12/03/06 Charlton v
Middlesbrough 55.3%
41%
1-1
2-1
12/03/06 Arsenal v
Liverpool 36.9%
54%
2-1
2-1
New tables of running profits to follow :okDate
League 1
TP
BG
MW
Odds
12/03/06 Swansea Walsall 49.1%
44%
2-0
1-1
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Cavelloman, Credit has to go to Merlin for finding and starting this thread on the TP predictor - It has now "morphed" into the 3 predictor engine method but it's really good to know that TP has more power than perhaps we realised. BG stands for "Betting Genius" it's a powerful betting tool similar to TP - I don't know how BG works out their calculations (maybe you would know ?) but the results BG produces are within 1% of TP but the percentages given are often very different, which is why it makes for a great additional filter. If you do a search on Google it will take you to their site and you can get a free 30 day trial anytime, after that it's £30 to buy. :ok
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles FF, Don't beat yourself up or change a successful system just because a few teams underperformed - I've noticed that some teams are just unpredictable & no system can account for that no matter how good. Also with the playoffs and relegations looming large some teams will outperform (and may be worth considering to be left out even though they may qualify) Anyway keep up the good work !!!
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Cavelloman, Great results again :clap of course you can continue to post on this thread but if your system continues to be successful as it is - it might be an idea to start a new system & strategy thread where you will get more of a specific coverage rather than as an addition to this. Thunderfoot - I can appreciate your frustration - I left a bet on betfair early this morning as I was travelling away to play a golf match (a 5hr round trip and I'm only just home) - the lay price at the time was 8.4 and I placed at 8.2 - On the drive home I heard the expected good news on the Radio only to find that my bet wasn't matched :wall There's a moral to this story somewhere :loon
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well on to Sundays matches and another selection for you :-
Date
Premiership
TP
BG
MW
Odds
12/03/06 Man Utd v Newcastle
71.3%
76%
3-1
1.40 :hope
12/03/06 Charlton v
Middlesbrough 55.3%
41%
1-1
12/03/06 Arsenal v
Liverpool 36.9%
54%
2-1
:okDate
League 1
TP
BG
MW
Odds
12/03/06 Swansea Walsall 49.1%
44%
2-0
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. TF, The problem with using just 1 engine is that 1 week it can look successful the next not quite so good - by using all 3 engines in conjunction it evens out their individual statistical bias - and the combined results have been very good.
I've asked before about just posting the selections by the current method but the census at the time was to publish the full tables as people use the tables in different ways - I've asked / requested people look at the tables and post thoughts on the selection method your input would be greatly appreciated - nobody here is saying that it can't be improved but I think we have a good balance at the % rate and the number of selections picked.Predictor Engines
#
Wins
Draws
Loss
Win Only %
Win & Draw %
TP (48%+)
102
57
30
15
56%
85%
BG (48%+)
115
63
33
19
55%
83%
MW (3 goal)
12
8
2
2
67%
83%
MW (2 goal)
39
21
13
5
54%
87%
MW (1 goal)
85
39
25
21
46%
75%
MW (overall)
136
68
40
28
50%
79%
TP & BG (both 48%+)
66
41
17
8
62%
88%
TP & MW (overall)
72
41
22
9
57%
88%
BG & MW (overall)
90
51
24
15
57%
83%
TP + BG + MW (overall)
55
36
15
4
65%
93%
TP + BG + MW (2 goal+)
29
18
9
2
62%
93%
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi LL, Always glad of your support, things went quiet for a while with no midweek selections, still no selection is better than picking a loser :loon I'm confident of these, so :hope for a good weekend.
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Thunderfoot :welcome to the thread. You've almost got it these are all home win selections with TP >=48% BG >= 48% and an MW indicated home win. The straight home win method is still proving profitable or you can double chance the 1x or "Lay the Away" "Lay the away" is proving a far more profitable return with a 93% strike rate over the last 75 selections. You can't cut and paste the data from TP - I do it all by hand. But there may be a way if you know about computer programming - there are a number of programmers on the site, mcgin , datapunter, georgej who may be able to help you with this. :ok
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles FF, If you are after concerns Norwich are my home team and the manager is under pressure for under performance - they have a strong side but just aren't gelling - they need to win the majority of there last matches to make the playoffs and have played in winning streaks all season and they won last weekend. :hope
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well no selections for tonight although league leaders Southernd come mighty close.
Date
League 1
TP
BG
MW
Odds
10/03/06 Hartlepool vHuddersfield 42.5%
33%
0-1
10/03/06 M K Dons v Bristol City 38.1%
48%
2-1
10/03/06 Southend v Scunthorpe 47.7%
48%
2-1
I'll post later with the weekends selections :okDate
League 2
TP
BG
MW
Odds
10/03/06 Northampton Carlisle 39.6%
35%
1-0
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well it turns there were more matches played that night than TP had listed :spank I'm now working on the weekends tables but as yet it doesnt look like there are any selections for Friday. Bring on the weekend :loon
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles FF - great stuff again :clap It's strange but I've noticed how alternate weekends work best for my football method as well - any ideas as to why ? The only thing I could think of is that maybe the stronger home teams (or read as weaker away teams) have settled into a home then away weekly pattern :unsure Just a thought - would you mind posting the odds in decimal form in future - my pitiful mind has trouble working out the better odds in fractional :loon :hope for another result :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. 3 matches for tonight but no system selections - thought I'd post the tables for those who maybe running their own systems off them
Date
Championship
TP
BG
MW
Odds
07/03/06 Wolves v Stoke
43.4%
64%
1-0
Date
League 1
TP
BG
MW
Odds
07/03/06 Yeovil v Brentford
46.2%
27%
1-2
:okDate
League 2
TP
BG
MW
Odds
07/03/06 Bury v
Stockport 46.7%
32%
0-1
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well another winner - so 3 wins & 3 draws from a difficult weekend.
Date
Premiership
TP
BG
MW
Odds
05/03/06 73.9%
70%
3-0
2-1:clap
05/03/06 45.2%
47%
1-1
3-2
15 consectutive matches without losing for the arb 1x and lay methods - currently 71 selections with only 5 losses (including a Chelsea AWAY match that I shouldn't have selected) The arb 1x is low because it includes odds below 1.40 in which case even a win or draw equals a loss. :okHome Win only
ARB 1x
Lay the Away
64% Strike Rate
93% Strike Rate
93% Strike Rate
5.83% Yield
4.59% yield
12.88% Yield
4.43 Points Profit
3.49 Points
9.77 Points (after commission)
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Yep LL a great system for picking home wins & draws but the odds were very short this week (or long depending how you look at it)
Will update the progress after Man City tomorrow :okSelections
TP
BG
MW
Results
48.2%
55%
2-0
1-0:clap
79.7%
61%
1-0
0-0:unsure
52.8%
72%
2-0
1-0:clap
61.0%
56%
2-0
1-1:unsure
66.6%
70%
3-1
2-2:unsure
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks for all the inputs :-
Just to confirm these are the selections for today originally 7 now down to 5 because of the 2 postponements :-Date
Premiership
TP
BG
MW
Odds
04/03/06 48.2%
55%
2-0
1.72:hope
04/03/06 79.7%
61%
1-0
1.50:hope
Date
Championship
TP
BG
MW
Odds
04/03/06 52.8%
72%
2-0
1.66:hope
04/03/06 61.0%
56%
2-0
2.00:hope
04/03/06 66.6%
70%
3-1
1.57:hope
The 2 Postponements are :-
I'm looking for some good things from these 5, and 4 wins would do nicely :okDate
Postponed
TP
BG
MW
Odds
04/03/06 49.3%
56%
3-2
P-P
04/03/06 55.8%
59%
2-1
P-P
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Yep, Weekly predictions and home % figures - I've deleted my cookies and internet files, rebooted and even tried accessing the site from the times home page rather than direct from my favourites but I still get the same figures - I have noticed this before - I wonder if it's regional ????? Can anybody else check and confirm any changes please - as it's concerning :ok
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles
FF, It sound great in theory. (how does Sheff Utd v Crewe now work out) Have you back tested this "tweak" from the results previously posted ? I think this is the only way to really tell but - it's going to be difficult to improve on your success so far. :okThe theory being that we want the away team to lose, so technically, an away side drawing games should work against the home side, not for the home side. -
Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.22% ) Yep good call DP - Sheff Utd tried their best and were unlucky in snowy conditions, the Crewe goalie played a blinder - but at the end of the day the bank doesn't know or care about that :loon
Profitable Lay System +228 points profit
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Profitable Lay System - EVEN BETTER STRIKE RATE FOR CHELTENHAM!!! :clap Nice One Danny :clap