Kanga
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Posts posted by Kanga
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles :rollin I should've been more specific :rollin
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles conference is killing you - really unlucky mate - was willing them home for you
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Merlin, It's on there - soccer fixtures - 28th March below the Burnley v Southanmpton match :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Selections for tonight :-
Date
Championship
TP
BG
MW
Odds
28/03/06 Burnley vSouthampton 33.0%
60%
1-1
28/03/06 Preston v Crewe
53.8%
65%
2-0
1.53:hope
Date
League 1
TP
BG
MW
Odds
28/03/06 M K Dons v Brentford
39.9%
56%
2-1
Again these link up amazingly with FF's selections :okDate
League 2
TP
BG
MW
Odds
28/03/06 Carlisle v Lincoln City
60%
52%
3-2
1.66:hope
28/03/06 Rochdale v Barnet52.1%
25%
1-1
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Profits of each method after the weekends results :-
Home Win only
Cover the Draw
Lay the Away
63% Strike Rate
89% Strike Rate
89% Strike Rate
2.32% Yield
5.04% yield
9.12% Yield
2.57 Points Profit
5.59 Points
10.13 Points
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. No Monday match as TP aren't quoting figures for Spurs :wall
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. If the odds are so short on say a Chelsea match - I have layed the draw in the past ;) (proved to be lucky with fulham) odds are much more friendly. The shorter price teams do tend to win Man Utd at the weekend was another example - but I don't count these personal touches in the system figures :loon I guess that's why people have asked to have all the complete tables published as they all use them slighly differently :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Sbi, 8 straight wins 2 draws and 3 losses - the home win only produced a 1 point loss this week only slightly better than the other 2 methods. I'll put up the tables later for comparison. One thing I have noticed is that the Watford & Wolves losing matches were against relegation strugglers who simply outperformed themselves. I don't know whether in the closing weeks it would prove adviseable to avoid selecting matches against teams in the relegation battle - the trouble is that it doing this would have also avoided 5 clear winners - but then 1 loser is equal to 4 winners so may be worth comtemplating. Any thoughts people ?
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles FF - after further thought the trouble with the method I stated above is that it couldnt be placed online or with bet365 whose odds we both prefer. (I think it's a possibility though - and I'm going to look into this and backtest on my thread results to see if it increase the profit) I guess in essence what I'm suggesting is that it's probably wise to check beforehand that no one team is in all three of your accy selections. Still a great formula you worked out and excellent results.
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles FF - Don't know how this will work but surely if the same banker 3 teams are also in the 5 & 7 accy's your stuffed - like Aldershit this weekend. I'm not proposing a knee jerk reaction here but it seem to be rather heavily reliant on banker teams performing (I know they are supposed to win but they don't always) Could you not split into 3 * 3 or 4 * 3 banks depending on the number of qualifying teams and then doubling up the banks. e.g. you could have a*b or a*c or b*c - you could then have the massive a*b*c as well There is probably a fancy betting name for this scheme - but I just thought of it - LOL I don't know how you would split the teams - but it would take out a ruined weekend if one of the banker fails - what do you think ?
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Dai - Sorry to hear Mate. What I should have made clear(er) it that we lay to a fixed liability - so set the liability to 1 point and the amount staked will be variable - therefore it evens out the losses. Otherwise, as you say, a short price favourite losing and it really hurts the bank. Keep looking in I am still confident that we will get some more good results up to the end of the season - I'm more unsure of how it will work at the start of next !!!
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Dai - That's not good news mate - which selections did you pick, all of them or a select few. The 4 losses last week and the 3 this, aren't good or expected - but your losses shouldn't be that great - 1 loser wipes out 4 winners using the "Lay the away" method - the problem is the unlucky time that you started. As said above (and you rightly stated) we are entering unknown territory - but I still believe that we have the advantages on our side with the draw being covered. Keep looking in ..... we will prevail !
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles If you'd have done the top 5 rated - Watford would have scuppered you FF - hard to know what to do maybe banks of 3 x 3 ???
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Me thinks a classic relegation struggle scenario :- I watched enough of Norwich & Coventry struggling every season in the 80's/90's to know what weird results these can throw in. Still a good amount of winners in there FF - just not quite linked up right. Time will only tell how our various methods hold up at this time - it maybe all these predictions are best in the middle 3/4 of the season ???
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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles C'mon Aldershot !!!!
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Re: Odds and Probability Clotty - I don't know if I can post the link here but i'll tell you how to get there - go to betbrain.com and hover over information in the top bar - then click probablility calc. It explains in 3 stages how to work out the probability based on odds. With this knowledge you can use the Best Odds you can find * Probability = VALUE if > 1 Betbrain actually work all this out for you in their value bets tables but it may not cover your field of interest. :ok
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Re: the punter's lounge road to riches! (week 1) I've gone for Forest simply coz the system I use has no Scottish or conference league selections - which leaves Forest or Wrexham and both stand a great chance of winning IMHO with Forest having the edge. Great idea mate :clap
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hey TF - Good luck with you system :hope Keep us informed - knowledge is power and all that stuff :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks David always glad of your support :ok
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Was thinking the same thing FF - especially the MW 3-0 selections - they match up exactly with your upper 40+ ratings. :hope for a good one !!
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Funnily enough I've considered back testing the change of the MW column with an FF column - trouble is I don't have all the past numbers and it would take me way more time than I have at present. As you say 91% isn't bad and would be hard to improve on and we would never get to 100% but 95% would be nice - LOL Muppet is that something your computer programming skills would be able to check easily ?
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Sbi - Thanks for all the work you've put in - personally I think 3 predictors is the perfect amount. I'm very happy with the way TP & BG are often wildly different in their %'s but producing similar amounts of winning results and the MW spreadsheets works well in conjunction with them as a final filter. I agree that L1 & L2 are difficult leagues to predict - when I was running numerous combinations of back tests on BG - I just could not get the results to equal the Prem or Champ leagues and yet these leagues still perform well in the system and it would reduce selections if stricking to the aforementioned. Fingers crossed for a good weekend for some reason it seems to work best on alternate weeks - I know FF has found this with his stats as well.
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Re: Are short prices best????!!!! Value is the answer to small price bets - look at the hot favourites thread the profit is all made in the difference between average price and the price actually achieved - it's amazing just how accurate bookies are at calculating prices to probability at shorter prices.
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Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Just had a quick look at the footyforecast site and the results published look good - around 7 selections per week. For the last 9 weeks ( the length of our method ) profits have made little headway and last week was bad for them as well - I'm not knocking their success but taking heart that we have done so well :ok
Which teams let your footy system down?
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Which teams let your footy system down? Wigan & Bolton - they never perform to predictions either outperform or underperform