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Kanga

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Posts posted by Kanga

    Quick System

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Quick System Was it just me or did "Happy as Larry" look like he was cruising at the finish ? I was left with the feeling he could have won that race - Peruvian Prince speed throught the gap and quickened nicely but ol happy was cruising along in 3rd gear with plenty left.

    even total goals. +1.8% yield. 374 bets.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: odd/even total goals. +4.5% yield. 198 bets. I stand to be corrected here but I believe that No staking system will make a profit if it doesnt make a profit to level stakes - all you can do is increase the performance. I would suggest monitoring both ( inc back testing) and see what comes out on top - it's a fine balance between risk vs return and profit vs yield.

    even total goals. +1.8% yield. 374 bets.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: odd/even total goals. SINGLES. +1% yield. 92 bets. Yes - Personally i think this is the best way to go - much like the stop loss that's widely accepted in trading circles. Look at the way the stakes have risen in the last 3 rounds 36.5, 83.95, 193.09. I know they are rare occurances but if you lose tonight how would feel staking the full amount on the next at £444.10 ? If you back test pulling out after £36.50 (just an example) - I'm sure you would find that you lose this amount a few times but you aren't making the rare huge loss that is terminally damaging.

    even total goals. +1.8% yield. 374 bets.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: odd/even total goals. SINGLES. +1% yield. 92 bets. Spreading the stakes around will only cause extra stress on the other boxes and you will be faced with the same situation in a while with one box at very high stakes and a number of the others also heading in the same direction (halfing the stakes on the single will also do the same thing) If Genoa are in running and the match looks like it's going the wrong way, you could trade out or hedge on the correct score market. Or just bite the bullet BUT set yourself a stop loss at a recoverable % of the bank - that way if you hit a losing run the set back isnt so high that it cant be recovered with a few winning boxes - what's the point in going on a statistically rare losing run that if lost would take the next 2 months say to recover your loses - It's not easy accepting a loss but if you back test I'm sure you'll find it the most profitable way.

    Slapdash systems 2006

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Slapdash systems 2006

    You mentioned that more favourites win in jumps races. My impression (though I haven't done any research on this) is that there are a lot more short-priced favourites in jumps races, so you'd expect more favourites to win. Do you know if there is any difference between flat and jumps races if you take this into account? For example, if you look at profit/loss from backing all favourites at SP, rather than percentage of winning favourites, is there a significant diference?
    Sorry if I'm barging in here but I've looked back over the last 10 years and the break down of how clear favourites fair is as follows. Flat (all races) = 31.9% return of 92.0% at SP NHF (all races) = 36.8% return of 92.3% at SP Hope that helps

    UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Following on with this rolling stake Doubles = £ 80.73 Trebles = £ 122.45 Quads = £ 38.17 I was stumped by the difference in banks but a superb 2-1 cover allowed for a nice banking that isn't included in these. 8 of the 25 losers were 2-1 home victories. 4 of the 25 were 2-2 draws 3 were 1-2 away wins.

    UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results I've run 3 staking methods over all the 82 posted selections. 1) Flat £20 stake = profit of £ 92.20 2) Comparible Fixed return = £ 107.70 3) Rolling 5% percentile of 1000 point bank = £ 87.64 Whereas your rolling treble/quad has doubled even these returns :ok I'm just trying to get my head around an equation to run similar through excel.

    even total goals. +1.8% yield. 374 bets.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: odd/even total goals. SINGLES. +22% yield. 64 bets.

    cheers merlin :cow the boxes do not have to go on for ever - although they will as this is the best way to record and calculate them on my spreadsheet. the consortium has not really been discussed up until now. i think that it is the only way in which a huge bet can be tackled - it will crop up sooner or later. rather than members pay week by week or match by match i see them paying a sum (20 quid) and this can be put into a kitty. profits and losses can clearly be seen on this thread. when a big bet comes along then the kitty is used. every month or so any extra profit can be evenly redistributed. anyone who's interested in the consortium idea or who has any ideas, just post here. keep up the belief! :clap
    Hi Muppet, Glad to see things progressing nicely - just a thought about the consortium idea. As the boxes progress along it's you who is making the loss and the next box is in effect a loss recovery - by splitting the big stake at the end amongst a consortium (assuming you are a part of it) you will only return a % of the amount already lost. Have I misunderstood ?? :$

    Help Required for New System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Help Required for New System

    Ah, 'tis a spreadsheet thou are after...
    AB
    Total stake to use1100
    Back odds to break even2911.11111
    Back odds to break even3137.692308
    Lay odds profit selection4340.59829
    A1 : the total stake to use A2 - A4 : the odds of the selections B2 / B3 : the portion of the stake to use in order to break even, B2 : (1/A2)*A1 B3 : (1/A3)*A1 B4 : the amount to enter at Betfair for the Lay selection, ie your profit B4 : =(1+(1/(A4-1))) * (A1-(B2+B3)) - (A1-(B2+B3)) ( Inverted Lay odds ) * ( Unused stake ) - ( Unused stake )
    In-Genius :ok
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