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Kanga

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Posts posted by Kanga

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay

    Ripon 3:20 ...Union Jack Jackson (maximum value lay price 8.40) the current price 7.00.
    Finished 2nd so a return of 1 point. Update of results based on recorded price available at the time of posting. Green Mile -3.30 points Or Sing About - 2.25 points Miss Andretti - 3.50 points
    Staked5.00
    Profit-7.05
    Yield-141%
    Wins2
    Strike rate40.00%

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay Thanks Nikola, The trouble isnt so much about trust it's about making followers a few points profit a month and being able to accurately record the results without aftereventing ....e.g .....I managed to get matched at XXX and so should you ....so todays profit is XXX. Having thought about this I think I will post bets that I know can be taken at the time at Value Odds I'll post the maximum odds to take and the price available at that moment ..... I'll record the results with the current price posted regardless. Which ironically means the results are actually worse off than currently shown even after recording yesterdays 1 point profit :loon Todays value. Ripon 3:20 ...Union Jack Jackson (maximum value lay price 8.40) the current price 7.00. Amended results to follow :ok

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay There are 2 problems emerging with trying to enter this system on this forum - I follow it myself and I'm doing very nicely so I know it works. When I place my own bets on I enter a lay price and if it gets matched then great if not it's a no bet but this would be impossible to record on the forum .... how could you prove it got matched ? So I am left with entering a choice where the price is already available to take (while still entering a maximum lay price) but as you can see above if the S.P price drifts out then it's a no bet. Does anybody have a solution to this ? :ok

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay

    9:00 Leopardstown….Migmatite (exchange lay max 5.2) currently (4.4) Forecast S.P 9/2 ... Max S.P odds for recording 7/2 :hope
    Magmatite 2nd ... drifted to 9/2 making it a no bet for recording although it was easy to get the price quoted. This recording is becoming a problem .... results stay as they were.

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay Miss Andretti ... 1st ...3/1 fav...1 point staked -3.00 returned Smashed the course record by over 2 seconds = 10 lengths better than previous record ... over 5f that was an incredible run. Systems going well isnt it .. 3 lay selections .. 3 winners :loon All 3 winners were poor value and in the long run this will pay off - if there are any watchers still left keep following it will turn around.

    Staked3.00
    Profit-7.25
    Yield-242%
    Wins0
    Strike rate0.00%
    Selection tomorrow will be in the evening races.

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay There are many ways to calculate what you think "fair odds" are, you can study form yourself by using various stats, you can use bookmakers early price odds, or there are many sites on the net that give "horse ratings" ...racingpost, flatstats, adrian massey, turftrax ...etc ..etc or a combination. It took me 6 months of testing various things before I was happy with my pricing up a race. From the example rating of 9/1 ... the formula is 1/(odds + 1) * 100 ... so for green mile I had .... 1/(9+1)*100 = 10% chance. To go from probability to a price the formula is ((1/prob)*100)-1 ...so it's ((1/10)*100)-1 = 9/1. :ok

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Value Lay Thanks Dices, It's all down to the probabilities of winning that I assign to each horse and from that you can translate into odds. You may find this link helpful to you :- http://www.oddsexchange.com/servlet?cat=help I had Green Mile down as 9/1 "fair odds" a 10% chance - I set 6/1 as my own personal "value odds" the 7.6 is S.P +10% which is where I've noticed the exchanges trade at for laying (6.6 + 1). 5/2 was a rediculous price, somebody knew something as it was heavily gambled upon and sadly did just enough to land the gamble. Probably as clear as mud as I'm one of those people who knows what they mean but has trouble conveying the information.

    The Value Lay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    The Value Lay<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

    After reading some great threads from you guys and profiting from them, I thought I would add a little contribution of my own - I’ve been developing a “value LAY system†that won’t make you rich but should add a nice few points profit to your bank each month.

    This system is based purely on mathematics and more importantly VALUE and therefore I cannot easily explain how a selection is made except to say that I price up the cards and pick the best LAY selection from all those figures.

    I will select 1 horse a day and quote the maximum exchange price to LAY and the current exchange price, I'll also add the S.P forecast price and the Maximum S.P price to record the result - it is highly likely that you will get matched.

    This maximum lay price I quote is necessary to be profitable, but causes problems recording the bet results – the fairest way I can think of is to record the results at S.P and if the final price is higher than the lay price stated then this will be recorded as a NO BET.

    Any suggestions as to how to best record the results would be appreciated.

    Some points worth noting :-

    These selections aren’t picked because they will lose, but that because of the uncertainty in racing they will lose often enough at the price quoted to make it worth doing.

    If you can’t get the maximum price I quote then DON’T BET – don’t back them either as they are still likely poor value.

    Personally I don’t touch in-play racing and have not recorded or analysed these results. My gut feeling would be that you would get disproportionally matched on horses that are running well and would miss those that are set to lose – all IMHO

    All that said here is today’s LAY.

    <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />4:05 Fairyhouse ….Green Mile (exchange lay max 7.6) currently (4.3) Forecast S.P 4/1 max S.P odds for recording 6/1 :hope Kanga :ok

    JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :nana Another great winner JT :nana Maybe no consolation but you could have taken the early price at 7/2 and still had the reduction enforced. Bookies like mug punters - regulars who have no plan and pick selections on the fly - that's why they have huge amounts of information scattered over the walls and keep the TV volume down. Alarm bells obviously rang with them when a punter walks in with a prepicked selection and has the savy to get the best price. Look on it as a compliment.

    JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Not luck JT - hard work & discipline are the only ways to make this game pay - I know of professionals who do exactly as you are doing - the only problem is knowing if the odds you are getting are "value" - but the selections & process are superb :ok . In addition there is a profitable system simply backing "Stoute's first run of the year" - both the above qualify :hope

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