Kanga
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Posts posted by Kanga
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Re: The Value Lay Today's Value 2:20 Warwick ... Know No Fear (max lay price 5.20) current price 3.75
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Re: Calculating Odds To go from probability to a price the formula is ((1/prob)*100)-1 So for the above example :- 1) (1/45.22)*100)-1 = 1.21 2) (1/32.17)*100)-1 = 2.11 3) (1/13.91)*100)-1 = 6.19 4) (1/6.09)*100)-1 = 15.42 5) (1/2.61)*100)-1 = 37.31 :ok
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Re: Calculating Odds Let's say you rate 5 horses 1) 52 points 2) 37 points 3) 16 points 4) 7 points 5) 3 points Add the total amounts of points up - in this case 115 points divide horse points by total points. 1) 52/115 = 45.22% 2) 37/115 = 32.17% 3) 16/115 = 13.91% 4) 7/115 = 6.09% 5) 3/115 = 2.61% Hope that helps :ok
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Re: Bath ~ 27/06/07 7:10 ... Sad Times E/W ... looking for 7/1 Disappointing start to this season but a return to form should see her win this. 8:20 ... Oramas Ghost ... looking for 5/2 Stoute & Spencer team up for a well deserved victory after 3 previous disappointments.
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Re: The Value Lay
1st ... staked 1 point returned -2.85 :wall Being forced into taking an early value price seems to be making a difference to the system - I'll keep monitoring this but the longer it goes on below expectations the more concerned i'm getting that the selections are outperforming.Carlisle 2:30 ... Brixworth Scribe (max lay price 4.75) the current price 3.85Staked 11.00 Profit -14.40 Yield -131% Wins 5 Strike 45.45% -
Re: Carlisle 27/06 5:00 ... Abientot e/w ... 16/1. Post reasoning later (work calls)
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Re: The Value Lay Today's Value Lay Carlisle 2:30 ... Brixworth Scribe (max lay price 4.75) the current price 3.85
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Re: Newbury 26/06/07 8.05 ... Propaganda Superb breeding - future classic potential ? Worth the risk at 3/1
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Re: The Value Lay
2nd ... 1 point staked ... 1 point returned About time we had a bit of luck.Brighton 2.30 ... Maybe I Won't (maximum Lay price 2.10) the current price 1.90Staked 10.00 Profit -11.55 Yield -116% Wins 5 Strike 50.00% -
Re: The Value Lay Today's Value - What little there is !! Brighton 2.30 ... Maybe I Won't (maximum Lay price 2.10) the current price 1.90
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Re: The Value Lay
Carnivore ... 1st ... 1 point staked ... -4.00 points. Somebody up there is extracting the urine :loon 5 winners from 9 picks each won by a neck or less with 1 finishing 2nd and being placed 1st after a controversial stewards enquiry :wallMuss 3.30 ... Carnivore (maximum Lay price 5.40) the current price 5.0Staked 9.00 Profit -12.55 Yield -139% Wins 4 Strike 44.44% -
Re: The Value Lay Today's Value Muss 3.30 ... Carnivore (maximum Lay price 5.40) the current price 5.0
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Re: Musselburgh ~ 25/06/07 4:00 Alucica ... looking for 9/2 Close 3rd in a Redcar maiden handicap (6f) followed up with a narrow win over 7f at Lingfield AW handicap, off 3lb higher today but should be able to follow up in a weak race.
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Re: Do you back horses or prices? That's a very good point but that horse will still have a "price" and as we sadly know the best horse doesnt always win the race ... so you need a "price" that's better than the long term strike rate. Flip a coin 10,000 times and at 1/1 both sides you will break even, 10/11 you will make a loss and 11/10 make a profit even though the strike rate is 50%.
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Re: Do you back horses or prices? Value all the way for me - you can pick as many winners as you like but if the price to strike ratio is poor - you'll still make a loss !!
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Re: The Value Lay
1st staked 1 point returned -3.5 points :wallWarwick 3:00 ... Gleneagles (maximum value lay price 5.60) the current price 4.50Staked 8.00 Profit -8.55 Yield -107% Wins 4 Strike 50.00% -
Re: The Value Lay Today's Value. Warwick 3:00 ... Gleneagles (maximum value lay price 5.60) the current price 4.50
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Re: How did your Ascot go? 10 lays in total with 2 losers (Miss Andretti & Yeats) +3.5 points overall.
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Re: Pontefract ~ 24/06/07 3:10 William's Way e/w at 16/1 Value price after disappointing last run, when going for a hat trick.
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Re: Warwick ~ 24/06/07 4:00 Siamese Cat .... Free bet e/w at forecast 5/1 Placed in all four previous starts, 2nd to the recently superb Indian Ink (Diamond Diva 3rd and Whazzis 4th) at Ascot on soft last year. 2nd in a Windsor maiden last month on reappearance over 8f, todays slightly shorter trip and softer ground should suit.
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Re: The Value Lay
Finished 11th so 1 point back for the pot.Ascot 2:30 ... Double Attack (maximum value lay price 8.40) the current price 7.00Staked 7.00 Profit -5.05 Yield -72% Wins 4 Strike 57.14% -
Re: The Value Lay Todays value. Ascot 2:30 ... Double Attack (maximum value lay price 8.40) the current price 7.00
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Re: Royal Ascot ~ 23/06/07 2:30 Ascot .. Feared in Flight. Hghly promising debut display in 6f York maiden (good to soft) when he came from last to first and looks an even better prospect with the extra furlong ... also top RPR and TS rated.
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Re: Saturday Naps Newmarket 1:40 Saviour Sand At the forecast price of 7/1 .... I feel it's a free bet at e/w. Redcar 5:50 Moonlight Applause As above forecast price 7/1 .... a nice e/w double ?
Calculating Odds
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Calculating Odds Just to point out the prices above are traditional bookmakers prices so 1.00 = evens For direct exchange prices just leave off the -1 in the formula.