Kanga
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Posts posted by Kanga
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Re: Drifters and steamers
Gingertipster has it spot on here. The best indication of price is the last price at the off - therefore a steamer or a drifter is only a market correction and the horse is now running at it's "correct price". You need to have taken a steamers price before the price drop to have a measure of value, only this way will you make a profit long-term. Just as a side thought - why do you think bookies advertise a steamer ?....... The trick is to identify a good value horse before it becomes a steamer, or after it has drifted ......... -
Re: DailyDonkey.com & Betting Bot Turbo, I think it's against the rules to advertise site's on here, hence the cloak & dagger stuff - but if you google "tipster proofing" - it's the first site that comes up. select tipster, select a time period (longer the better) select commision at 5% and S.P >10% - (for odds over 11/2 the % is incrementally higher) Loads of tipsters advertise a profit but take this 15%+ away and they don't look so good - especially as you have their fees and software programs to pay for as well - ;)
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Re: DailyDonkey.com & Betting Bot The biggest problem is that not all selections are posted up the beginning - you need to keep going back and rechecking as selections get added. Unsurprisingly - This isn't a problem if you subscribe to the software as it automatically refreshes the selections, so you don't miss any.
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Re: DailyDonkey.com & Betting Bot There's a tipster proofing site easily found on google that proofs all the daily donkey bets - if you set the betfair commission to 5% and > S.P to 10% and run the results you'll get a good idea of longterm profits or losses. To be honest S.P > 10% is accurate if you don't go higher than 6/1 @ S.P but any greater odds than that and it ratchets up quickly.
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Re: Eddie Ahern.... I know nothing about the bloke but Eddie Ahern = Layers ££'s for me.
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Re: Question for Systems Experts Some great stuff in here guys - just wanted to add a little simplicity. The ONLY way to make a profit at this game is to get odds greater than it's chances - which therefore implies Value and Probability are important factors - The great Difficulty is knowing where that difference lies.
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Re: Aelara's downfall?? Aelara, I think Ginge is saying that by dropping "poor" performing systems - the total profit recorded will show a false profit as the "poor" results will be removed along with it. BUT from what I can see system 5 and system 7 were in profit when you dropped them and I believe you don't change the system total even if a system is dropped - as it's a rolling total. Keep up the good work :clap
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Merlin, Long time no speak - Glad to see the system still going strong - Keep up the good work :clap
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Re: Aelara's downfall?? If it's any help Tony my laying systems haven't been going that well either these last 3 weeks again for no good reason - there have been some unexpected results and I know that we're not alone as a number of systems are struggling backing or laying. Stick with it as it will turn around - a double punt on a 10/1 will get it all back in one go.
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Re: EW Fancies - Wed 19/09/07 Kempton 9:20 ... Right Option (6/1) @ 1/4 Odds Have to wait until the last race of the day for this one - Bang in form last 3 races (221) - Running over favourite distance, has won at this class and on AW before - usual jockey rides so I'm hopeful of a place at least.
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Stratford 2:15 ... Hathaal (25/1) @ 1/5th Odds Have to be honest this is a total punt in the dark regards the distance - but bear with me as there's method in the madness. Has ran it's majority of races (with success) over 8-12f and in much higher classes - longest race to date has been 16f and is now asked to run 22f ? Reason being is the horse is now an 8yo so although it has a turn of foot it now needs the pace of a longer race - Jim Best is no mug and with a great Lady Jockey booked for the ride I'm expecting it to place for a nice profit - 25/1 is a huge price for a Best/Lucy-Butler Combo.
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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread
Nice winner Mowgli :clapSt Leger 3.15 Doncaster Previous winners have usually had some sort of winning form or placed form at group level so Honolulu for me is too short after a run in a handicap that everyone is raving on about. It's definitely a class horse but is it good enough to go from class 2 to Group 1 Classic race? Lucarno has some solid form, beating many of these last time out in a group 2 race and running on well. A big danger if it gets the extra 2f. It also has form behind Boscobel, Papal Bull and Authorized which is also pretty solid. It beat MacArthur but that looks like it may improve for the step up in trip and has gone straight to group races after its maiden. It's likely to improve and needs to to get involved. Raincoat got to within 4 lengths of Authorized in the Dante and always looked like it would get better over further. Another that looks like it needs to improve but also could be better than the bare form. Of the others Veracity could be interesting as it has got placed over 2m behind Allegretto and that has run well since boosting that form. Suggested Bets: 5pts WIN - Lucarno (9-2 Bet 365 BOG) 5 pts WIN - Macarthur (7-1 Sporting Bet) 2.5 pts ew - Raincoat (10-1 Stan James) 2.5 pts ew - Veracity (16-1 Sporting Bet) 20 pts staked. -
Re: Saturday EW Fancies 5.20 Warwick ... Bold Cross (6/1) @ 1/4 Odds Is Bang in form at the moment and given a good break will be thereabouts - 1st 2 races ago and subsequently a good 2nd LTO with the winner clocking a good time - both races run over todays distance, class and similar going.
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Re: EW Fancies - Fri 14/09/07 3:55 Sandown ... Bold Diktator (9/1) @1/4 odds Has won over distance, on ground, and on course - likes Sandown and has a 33% strike rate here - Trainer has a 20% win strike rate. Looks to be running into form and is ok at the weights - last disappointments have been mainly due from poor starts but I think it will be up for this - should go close.
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Re: EW Fancies - Wed 12/09/07 Donc 4:55 ... Fairmile (11/2) @1/5th odds Close contest with Red Gala looking the one to beat - selection has plenty going for it though, including trainers 29% strike rate at Donc , has won previously over distance, going and class and K McEvoy rides - if it's fit after a lengthy absensce it'll go close.
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Re: EW Fancies - Tuesday 11/09/07 3:40 Lingfield ... Rocker (25/1) @ 1/4 odds Ok a little different to my normal selections but this is a superb price and worth a nibble to place at nice odds. Placed in last 2 starts - 2nd LTO and 3rd the time before - running over a new distance with a significant jockey booking from a canny local trainer.
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Re: Aelara's downfall??
Here's to finding out :cheers you should change the name now to Aelara's Snowfall or Windfall :loonI wonder what a good year would reap?? -
5:30 York ... El Alamein (17/2) @1/4 Odds Difficult horse to catch right - runs poorly on occasions and then fires a good run in - The positives are that todays conditions look to suit after an unsuitable pipe clearer run LTO - Trainer has a good strike rate at this course and the ground is ideal :hope
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Re: EW Fancies Sat 08/07/2007
Great Tipping Mowgi :clapHaydock 4.10 Full Result 1st 13 Mr Keppel (IRE) 16-1 2nd 4 Art Sale 6-1 3rd 11 Eastern Romance 20-1 -
Stratford 2:15 ... Colourful Life (6/1) @1/4 odds Last run needs to be forgiven as he was running 2 classes higher and on much softer ground that today's contest - given that the earlier races this year have shown improvement, todays class entry indicates to me a good run is likely. distance is fine, ground is preferred.
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Re: EW Fancies Fri 07/09/07 Thanks Guys :ok
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Haydock 4.45 ... Bajan Parkes (9/1) @ 1/5th Odds Consistent and improving type - Running into form and extra distance today will help the cause !!
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Re: EW Fancies - Tue 04/09/07 4.30 Lingfield ... Zalkani (7/1) @ 1/4 odds Course specialist having won 7 times here previously - came 3rd LTO after a long layoff and narrowly beaten into 3rd in a driving finish and not having the clearest of runs. G Baker's back in he saddle also winning on him previously, it all adds up to a good chance IMHO.
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Re: Saturday EW Fancies Well we peppered the flag today with those shots :loon
UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Great to see this still going so well JTW1 Currently available at 1.63 on Betfair. http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/portugal/portuguese-super-liga-2008-2009/nextmatch.php?matchid=6394165§ion=uo-odds Superb link to check on the current odds available.