Jump to content
** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **

Kanga

New Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    777

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Kanga

    Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one

    Kanga' date= was it from here? http://www.uk-neural.net/football2.html - looks a bit much even from my nerdesque perspective!!
    Yep that's the page .... I tried putting the formula into excel and it works ok but I have no knowledge of automating this to run against data ... manually it would take ages.

    My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan There seems to be a bit of confusion here, I may be wrong but in an effort to find common ground :-

    I am sure that you must involve in calculations the number of bets needed for a particular strike rate, otherwise it makes no sense! It cannot be the same for 50, 100, or 1000 bets, wouldn't you agree?
    Yes the probabilities of a losing run increases the larger the number of bets. The trouble is this is a stop start staking plan.
    The sequence stops when we have a winner, so there are a a number of other probabilities, such as W, LW, LLW, LLLW, LLLLW, LLLLLW, LLLLLLW and LLLLLLW, but the above figure (5.7%) is really all we need to know.
    Hoo has calculated the probabilities over the maximum bets needed to complete a sequence, it then starts over again. The bottom line appears to be that as long as the strike rate is 31% or greater then this staking system will be profitable, although I doubt a doctor would recommend it :loon. With the last 8 bets losing the strike rate is now 32%.

    My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

    I thought the ratchet system included a "loss limit"? I.e. if you stake 5% per bet, have a couple of losses, and the banks drops to say 65% (five 5% losses in a row), then you would recalculate your 5% against the new lower bank? I believe this is what Maria did in her (in)famous laying thread? Great comparison Kanga & nice picks Andy! :ok
    Thanks Hoo it was a fun project .... I believe in Maria's laying system there was a recalculation after the bank dropped 35% .... but that was for laying where the liability is different. In backing as long as the strike rate is reasonably high then it's safe to lever a little extra return this way ( hence my first post on this thread asking for the strike rate ;) ) I was trying to show that returns can still be good with much less risk taken, I would rather a 20 bet buffer zone than 8 ........ but personally I would stake at 3% then you have a buffer of 33 losers which at this strike rate is very safe and good for the longterm.

    My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Ok so here's the ratchet system :-

    Team Stake Odds Win P/L Bank Days End
    4.9864% 5000
    Dortmund v Hoffenheim € 249.32 2.40 1 598.37 5598.37
    Nantes v Grenoble € 249.32 2.00 1 498.64 6097.01 *
    Hull v Blackburn € 304.02 2.25 -304.02 5792.99
    Almeria v Getafe € 304.02 2.25 -304.02 5488.97
    Real Betis v Villareal € 304.02 2.25 1 684.05 6173.01 *
    Blackburn v Everton € 307.81 2.25 1 692.58 6865.59 *
    Hoffenheim v Bremen € 342.35 2.30 1 787.40 7652.98
    Toulouse v Bordeaux € 342.35 2.10 -342.35 7310.64 *
    Lecce v Reggina € 364.54 2.10 1 765.53 8076.17
    Getafe v Malaga € 364.54 2.25 -364.54 7711.63 *
    Man Utd v Inter € 384.53 2.50 -384.53 7327.10 *
    Dynamo Kiev v Metalist € 384.53 2.40 -384.53 6942.56
    Udinese v Zenit € 384.53 2.40 -384.53 6558.03 *
    Drogheda v Bray € 384.53 2.40 1 922.88 7480.91 *
    Man Utd v Liverpool € 384.53 2.30 -384.53 7096.38
    Hull v Newcastle € 384.53 2.25 1 865.20 7961.58 *
    Villa v Tottenham € 397.00 2.30 -397.00 7564.58
    P/L
    2564.58
    In order to compare apples with apples .... I have set the % of bank to 4.9864% which equals 249.32 of a 5000 bank, which is the average odds that has been staked to date and allows direct comparison with all staking methods. The asterix indicates the end of that days betting, so the bank can be recalculated and the stakes adjusted (or not) accordingly. As you can see 2564 gives a 15% better return than normal % staking and compares nicely with the 2590 achieved by the loss recovery system .... BUT .... with the ratchet system 5% of the bank gives a safety zone of 20 bets before going bust, compared to just 8 with the loss recovery - (personally I think 5% is too high I much prefer 3% - but as I say apples with apples) Your picks are excellent Andy so no criticizm intended here, I'd hate to see you go bust and stop posting :ok

    My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Andy, Just out of interest I ran the results through excel at your average level stakes which works out to be 249.32, the results are below , they should be self explanitory.

    Team Stake Odds Win P/L
    Borussia Dortmund v Hoffenheim € 123.80 2.4 1 598.37
    Nantes v Grenoble € 131.15 2 1 498.64
    Hull v Blackburn € 137.64 2.25 -249.32
    Almeria v Getafe € 198.81 2.25 -249.32
    Real Betis v Villareal € 287.17 2.25 1 560.97
    Blackburn v Everton € 145.31 2.25 1 560.97
    Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen € 153.40 2.3 1 573.43
    Toulouse v Bordeaux € 162.14 2.1 -249.32
    Lecce v Reggina € 234.20 2.1 1 523.57
    Getafe v Malaga € 170.30 2.25 -249.32
    Man Utd v Inter Milan € 245.99 2.5 -249.32
    Dynamo Kiev v Metalist Kharkiv € 355.32 2.4 -249.32
    Udinese v Zenit € 513.24 2.4 -249.32
    Drogheda v Bray € 741.34 2.4 1 598.37
    Man Utd v Liverpool € 182.50 2.3 -249.32
    Hull v Newcastle € 263.61 2.25 1 560.97
    Aston Villa v Tottenham € 192.50 2.3 -249.32
    AV AV Total
    249.32 2.28 2231.40
    Compared to the results you've obtained it's very similar but at much less risk. I'll run the ratchet system I suggested later to see what the results would be then.

    12% APR, how to ....

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: 12% APR, how to .... DP, don't want to be accused as advertising any product, but the information may be useful to you .... so in that context if you google soccer mystic there's something that by looking around may help you to see which way markets move (without purchasing) and yes they are predictable to a large extent.

    My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

    Please explain! for most punters' date=' picking skills are [b']vital
    Hi Bedlam, I hope I'm not jumping in here before sjuesju can answer but it's a good question to an astute statement. Andy's draw system is producing the goods nicely :notworthy but because of the staking system in use, it's weighting greater importance on an individual result than usual as the losing run progresses. Andy has said that in case of a losing run he will get more disciplined and more selective, which is fine in principle ..... BUT .... you just can't force results to happen ..... each selection is a unique entity it's not affected by past or future outcomes. All you can do in this game, is to put the probablilities in your favour and let the results happen, this staking system is putting added pressure on those probabilities.

    12% APR, how to ....

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: 12% APR, how to .... Correct me if I'm wrong and this may sound idiotic at first read but you would have to turn over the whole bank of 10,000 points @ 12% return to gain that 12% profit - if bets were small you could return a 12% profit, BUT if you only staked 5,000 points then your actual return would be 6% and not hitting your original target. I guess what I'm getting at here is that stakes are going to have to be a reasonable size or plentiful ... if the former then betfair is surely the way to go rather than bookies ... or if the later then this could be time consuming. My hunch is that you would be going for the later and using your programming skills to save on time ?

    My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

    I would appreciate any input on an alternative staking plan where you have a good strike rate on predicting draws.
    Andy, the best staking system I've come across that works very well with a consistent system and good strike rate is call "The Ratchet". It's simply a modified version of a fixed % system, it adds a little leverage safely to maximise returns with reduced risk. You stake a % of your bank (recommended 3%) but rather than lowering the stakes after a loser (as would usually be the case as the bank has now dropped) you simply keep the stake at the same amount, so it is always ratcheting upwards. The reasoning is that if the stakes are lowered, then you need a disporportionate amount of winners to recover the original losses. You can see why a good strike rate is needed for this method, but it does maximise returns. It may be difficult to change stakes amounts after each individual bet so this is probably better done at the end of each day. How does that sound ?

    My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Andy, Did you know that with a 50% strike rate system .... e.g flipping a coin, betting red/black or odds/evens at roulette ... the maths says that you will hit a losing run of 8 in only 250 bets. 50% would be an incredible strike rate to achieve picking draws (and I'm impressed by your results to date). You could be turning a winning system into a losing one with this staking method - the advantage you are seeking is to maximise returns but you are risking going bankrupt in the process and that can't be right.

    Gone to the Dogs?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Gone to the Dogs?

    No..that is not a correct reading of my post
    Teabag, Sorry if my brief post above sounded a bit harsh, it wasn't intended as such. Trust me there are a number of problems with systems such as this, I didn't want to knock your efforts, I tip my hat to all who put effort into posting systems, but at the same time I would like to save your hard earned cash. :ok

    Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Shame this ..... if past results are as reported then this looks to be a very good system, but if they can't continue to be posted then it's blatant advertising. Having said that, other paid up members (i'm not or have any affiliation) won't be too happy at having paid for tips posted openly for free. I can't see anyway forward for this ... which is a real disappointment as I would have liked to have seen them proved for a season.

    Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Progamble :welcome to PL My interest picked up immediately you mentioned laying and quoted your stats, as these numbers seem very good. Can you just clarify things for me ... as i understand it you have used your excel an vba skills to be able to extract the basic MW formula and improve on it ?? ...... or do you mean that you have been able to analyze the results against the MW predictions to generate a winning system. It would be nice to add a MW laying system to this thread if you are willing. :ok

    UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results A great system this, that turns a level stake profit each year - :notworthy JTW1 What's really being discussed here is - how can we gain the best profit for this system with the least risk - and the only way we are really going to know is for someone to back check all the results and then run it through various staking systems. Any takers ? My personal thoughts for what they are worth - :loon 1) Get the very best price you can - not rocket science - but it makes a HUGE difference over time. 2) Given that the system is designed to produce an unders result personally it doesn't make any sense to me to cover an overs bet in the long term - yes it may save the stake on occasions using this method but over time I think it would only be decreasing the returns. This is a really fun thread and the staking system as it is isn't broke and has built in excitement - long may it continue :drums

    Laying the draw

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Laying the draw There are alternatives to covering yourself. You could back the "unders market" or you could back the "no goalscorer" as well as the previously mentioned 0-0 scoreline. Each cover will be a different price so you would have to do the calcs to see which is the cheapest alternative - but any of them will eat into your initial lay profits. The only other option is to choose your lay matches carefully (so you wouldn't need to cover yourself) rather than just blindly back the home favourite. There are a number of reliable systems on here that may help you.

×
×
  • Create New...