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Kanga

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Posts posted by Kanga

    Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

    That is correct' date=' I was testing the result not the scoreline. I used the average odds as supplied by football-data so this may have varied slightly from actual odds taken at the time.[/quote'] Interesting .... I know that Merlin looks around for the best price .... would it be possible to check against betfair or bet365 prices it may make all the difference. No you don't want to do that ... what we need is a probability for each event ..... In the MW formula's is there a way of calculating this ? Agreed finding a true price is going to be difficult to say the least ... a quest for the holy grail (See what i did there - :loon ) I had a thought today that if the overall roi of the system is 10% then the bookies price quoted less 10% could be taken as the true price and staking worked out on this basis ... unfortunately this isn't totally accurate but could be useful.

    The 4 Draws returns...

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The 4 Draws returns... Otium, Interesting thread this.:clap I think I need to point out here that your integrity and honesty aren't being questioned, it's just that this site is monitored for after-eventing and systems checked to see how they are categorized. Please continue to post your selections but can I suggest just reserving comment for those selections posted :loon Is there any chance you could keep a running total if they were placed as singles ? :ok

    Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

    "do MW's sheets find value?" has been raised before. i am always uneasy about backing against something that i have no idea of the true price for. if you could relate prices to MW's picks then perhaps his yield would be even higher?
    Astute observation M :ok It would be very helpful to know if any value or probability could be placed next to a scoreline.

    Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

    Kanga' date=' using the premiership alone - the last 6 seasons yield a negative return on both mine and the mw spreadsheet (betting on scorelines deemed 3-0 or greater and discounting the first 6 and last 3 games of the season). Last season also saw an overall loss on the 3-0 selections for both generated scorelines.[/quote'] KT ... just to clarify are you testing this as betting on a correct scoreline or just the plain win indicator as Merlins thread ? ... If the later as I suspect, then it's interesting that the Prem should show a negative return when the system has returned a positive value overall for the last few seasons. Personally in answer to this conundrum I would say that your average strike rate is 63% therefore your average odds has to be >1.58 to make a profit. a) You can't only stake on selections where the available odds are >1.58 as the odds available may not be value e.g a true price of 1.72 backed at 1.58 overtime will lose whereas a true price of 1.40 backed at 1.55 will. b) Not ideal as you say but Get the best price you possibly can, the past seasons have shown that there is an edge to the sheets slightly greater than average bookies prices. c) Staking plans need very careful research some popular recovery staking plans may even make you go bankrupt before recovery - a lot of data is needed. d) Customizing according the strike rate and odds is the way to go IMHO. e) I have access to a program called The Staking Machine if you can pm me I'll can tell you how I need the data and I can run it through ... the website is well worth a look I think you would find it interesting. :ok

    Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi KT, If you could backtest your last seasons 3-0 (+) predictions and work out if they are profitable to level stakes that would be awesome just as a comparison ..... Maybe you could check to see where MW has highlighted a 3-0 and yours hasn't and vice versa (if it's not too time consuming). Merlin has a number of contributers making additional use of the MW sheets posting on this thread, if you've managed to improve upon the sheets and can help improve the ROI then great in my book :loon As long as the chosen subset makes a profit to level stakes then I'm sure a better staking plan can be worked out. :ok

    1% 'Steady Drip'

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: 1% 'Steady Drip' Fader ... I know you are talking generally here but in regards to this thread ... Hodgey has built up the current £230 from a starting bank of £20, the feeling is that you're only ever risking the initial £20. There comes a point though when the urge to bank something is going to loom larger .... have you ever looked at a scotty xs thread, similar system but he banks half the winnings each time and makes a steady income.

    Head-to Head Meetings

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Head-to Head Meetings Hi JT ... just for comparison here's the formula to compare the laying odds to the double chance backing odds. =1+(1/(decimal odds -1)) decimal odds are those quoted by the exchanges so 5/1 = 6.0 in decimal. Using an example from bet365 on todays match of Charlton vs Brentford double chance (1x) covering Charlton and the Draw has odds quoted of 1.11 Laying Brentford on Betfair at the current odds of 7.0 = 1+(1/(7-1)) = 1.166 Less 5% commission if it wins = 1.158 So in this example the laying method gives better odds and overtime (or acca's) that can be a significant difference.

    Head-to Head Meetings

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Head-to Head Meetings

    If anyone out there has ideas about the Double Chance or does these bets regularly and has an opinion please feel free to add your opinion :ok
    JT the double chance bet is really just another way of saying that you are laying the team you don't expect to win. Let's say you think the home team will win - in the double chance bet the home win and draw are covered, this is the same as laying the away team, where again the home win and draw are both winning bets. A while ago I looked at the odds of double chance and compared it to the odds of laying and the differences at the time was bigger than I would have thought. With the exchanges now offering multi bet services (acca's) it may pay to compare the odds as over a course of 5/6 bets the difference could be considerable. :ok

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corners: spreads = 132 bets +24% yield, fixed odds = 130 bets +84% yield !! M ... this one bookmaker ... is that the only way to place bets on those matches ? If yes (and your success is ongoing) then the advisor has a point .... if no then I can't see it being a problem. I think DP calls it scalability ... the ability to be able to place increasingly larger stakes on a successful system without being restricted.

    Staking system for low odds.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Staking system for low odds. It's generally accepted amongst successful punters that raising stakes after a loser is a big No No in whatever form. People will point to clever "recovery staking plans" the trouble is that you are massively increasing the likelyhood of bankruptcy with little gain in overall profit (if any). You really need to know the strike rate of your system ... this way you can work out the length of a likely losing run and be able to allow for it. From what you've said above at average odds of 1.25 ( I'm assuming this to be decimal odds ) then you need a strike rate of 85% to return a profit of 7%. Have a look at this table :- http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/dont_go_broke!.htm You may need to login - it's free and you wont get any spam. From that you can see you have a 50/50 chance of 4 losers in a row even with an 85% strike rate system.

    A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Hey A1 .... did you see the finish to the Fenerbache game ? They were down to 10 men and 1-1 well into extra time .... one final attacking chance ... the shot is challenged down and the ball loops high into the air onto the top of the cross bar (could go anywhere) if over the bar then it's the end of match 1-1 ..... but it loops back off the bar into the path of a grateful Fenerbache player with an open goal and the last kick of the match. I've seen a few last second squeeks but that's gonna take some beating :loon

    Applying Maria's staking plan to football?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Applying Maria's staking plan to football? Hi, Did you cut and paste this from the staking machine website ? If you read the opening comments of the original thread it may help clarify things for you. http://expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread18432.html Just remember that the plan is designed for laying .... it may or may not transpose well for football or backing or the strike rate of your system.

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corners: spreads = 131 bets +23% yield, fixed odds = 90 bets +22% yield

    K - it just means create a folder in the C drive called footy.
    M ... Doh ! what a numpty I am .... at times I think I'm ok on the brains front and then i do something really stupid and let myself down :loon

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corners Spreads: 120 bets, +30% yield !!! Hmmm ... I was thinking of betfred as I was typing but didn't consider the limited choice ... the exchange multiples don't offer corner odds either ... the only thing I could find was a B365 accy bonus but this is of no use either .... sorry :$

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corners Spreads: 120 bets, +30% yield !!! Hi Muppet, Interesting strategy using the lucky 15 ... my initial thoughts are that it maybe harder to work out if the odds on offer are value compared to the spread betting or have you already accounted for this ? It may pay to look for bookies who offer bonus's on their lucky 15 payouts ... it may make all the difference. :ok

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