Kanga
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Posts posted by Kanga
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Re: The 4 draws... Hi Otium, Great thread, long may you continue with your success .... after sharing a bit with us first of course :loon Just reading between the lines here ... I don't think anybody is trying to fall out with you or doubt your selection process .... it's just this forum has strict rules about after eventing and system rules. When you get a following of experienced systemites on here smelling a sniff of potential success it's a huge compliment. :ok
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Re: staking Agree with all that's been said above ... the only solution may be to back check the data and see if the system can be tweaked into a profit ... e.g are you getting the best odds possible ?
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Re: True odds and optimal staking plan Dices came across this and thought of your question. It's a variation of kelly that may suit your system better ? http://www.p2pbetting.com/Articles/2005/Nov/TheAnsellStakingPlan/tabid/851/Default.aspx
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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nice stat find on the draw in the 3.10 JT - I really liked King's Apostle in that race but was drawn 11 so I staked down - won by the 3rd trap just as you predicted a low draw.
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Re: Points per season? Yes but it's the same for backing at level stakes .... at the end of the year the total staked is usually more than the bank you started with. But if you want to calculate it backwards you can say that 15% yield is a good return so therefore at the end of the year this would make me ..... X points at level stakes.
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Re: Points per season? Doh ! ... I put the decimal point in the wrong place yes it should have been 23.33% which is a very good return. Yield or ROI .. is the usual yardstick for measuring profitability backing or laying. Can I ask why you want to measure against level stakes for lays - as your bank needs to allow for the liability / turnover ?
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Re: True odds and optimal staking plan Could you not just stake an amount proportional to the true probability you have calculated ? So in your first example you calculated the probabilty to be 25% - you could stake 25% of any chosen amount and in your second example 12.5%. Your first example has twice the probability of winning of the second example and the stake amounts reflect this. Assuming your probabilities are accurate it will even things out nicely ...... It's simple and is independant of the odds achieved (which is where your value/profit is made)
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Re: Points per season? As a rule of thumb any Return on Investment % (ROI) in double figures is a good return. ROI is easily calculated as ........ Profit / Total amount staked. So in your example of 30 bets in a season gives ....... 700 / 3000 = 2.33% ROI. You also have to factor in betfair commission (assuming you use them).
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. What a turn around Clarky :clap you were a gnats :moon away from jacking this in ...... now both systems are in touching distance of double figures.
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Re: 0-0 Correct Scores Unlucky with the Troyes game mate - Amiens score in the 90th after just having a player sent off :puke I'm going through a rough run myself these last 3 weeks so maybe there are a few odd results being returned - I'm sure it'll turn around for you though.
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Re: Increasing stakes on a system OK thanks that's a bit clearer - firstly with laying you need to be looking at the Liability e.g the amount you are risking with your bet, so a stake of £10 @ 10.0 decimal on betfair = a liability of £90. With stakes of £20 @ 5.5 betfair = £90 and 1% liability of bank. With laying you need a lot more data than backing to fully test a profitable system - Ideally you need a full seasons worth of bets. As far as liquidity - have you looked at the matched figure as the top of the betfair market? .... the higher the better and markets obviously vary .... have you considered laying at betfair s.p as your stake is guaranteed to be matched at the price ? I would suggest that you start with an amount that's comfortable and see it through - but with the amount of data you have I would suggest playing it safe while you gather extra data. There is no right or wrong time to start a system as it's the longterm returns that are important but you need to allow for the losing runs that will happen. Hope that helps.
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Re: Increasing stakes on a system Ok your going to have to help me here .... firstly are you backing or laying ? ... are the table of figures you posted earlier the furthest you can/have backtested? I'm confused by a number of things the division of 28 into £90 seperate banks ? Why you would increased stakes from 20p upto a comparatively huge £10 ?
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Re: Increasing stakes on a system Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think what your asking (I in a fancy way :loon) is this - can I increase stakes during a losing run as I'm due a winner ? Well the simple answer is yes you can, there are a number of loss recovery staking plans out there - but I wouldn't personally - on the basis that no staking plan will turn a long term level stakes loss into a profit. Your much better off working out the strike rate of the system, the average odds taken and then calculating a worst case losing run. From this you can work out the bank you need and then the % of the bank as a stake amount. Losing runs are all part of the game - the worst thing you can do is panic, if you're confident in the system just ride the storm out.
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Re: Winning streaks Hoo, just a thought but with teams on a good winning streak it might attract punters and result in bad odds being offered, worth following though as you may have found a good laying system :loon
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.
No nerves touched here mate why would they be ? 3 profitable seasons worth of backed up and previously confirmed data - results are only arbitarily recorded to the prices quoted, if you shop around you may get better, if you don't care then you may get worse ... but the odds quoted are readily available at the time of posting. Let's stretch things :dude and say you are correct - what does this mean ? Kettering playing away ... worst odds would be 1.50 so let's take 0.28 points profit off the grand total :moon If you want to back check any prices here's a great site :- http://www.betexplorer.com/ Do you see what I did there ?touché. I'm hardly on a rant. Obviously touched a nerve. If you are publishing profit results it's quite important to make sure they are accurate. I don't think idle thrats are necessary, this is an open forum after all -
Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Not a private members club at all bud everybodies welcome, even you. How about you post the odds you think it should be rather than implying anything underhanded.
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Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one Damn ... sorry to waste your time guys ...was getting a bit hopeful there.
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Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one SJ - when are you counting from ? A1 is counting back a couple of seasons as in page I ( as i understand it )
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Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one Guys the page this was taken from is page II - here's page I http://www.uk-neural.net/football.html It looks like he took data from 03/04 and 04/05 to predict 05/06 season. So maybe A1's correct and explains the profit shown ?
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Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one Seems to me the differences we have here is from when the input data is taken from, can you guys confirm the way your calculating this. Must admit my initial reading of the formula was to take the info from the start of the current season, but how would this be done with no games played initially ? and then you have the problem of how do you calculate for promotion or demotion :wall so that can't be right. A1's data base seems to be giving good results (even using muppetts random results gave a 15% ROI) so maybe that's the correct way of doing it ???
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Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one
Well spotted Rushian ... I hadn't noticed the symmetry before. I dont think it's a typo the webpage is listed above. I'm not qualified to comment on cutt-offs or a simplification, but like you I'm sure there's must be a simpler way to express it.Interesting discussion going on, just a couple of points if I may: (a) Any reason for not writing: (Cos(-5.363495)^3) + ... + (Cos(-5.363495)^3) = simply as 2 *(Cos(-5.363495)^3) + ... What I mean is, they are exatly the same, right? Or is there some sort of typo? (b) Since these ratings are used with cutoff points, wouldn't removing the cosine terms alltogether make the ratings much more simpler? Their effect could be included in the cuttoffs. and © can the complicated atan function not be simplified? I've had a look at it's shape and it looks very similar to the logarithmic function, just that it flats out quicker... There must surely be something simpler than that! :eek -
Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one Muppet, are these figures based on the actual table points at the time of the match being played ? - it seems to make a big difference based on previous comments.
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Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one Wow, you guys are great - I remember the ATN / ATAN problem I had at the time now you mention it Muppet :loon.
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Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one
For Homes I make that a ROI of 22.75% :loon Looking at the Aways < -33% = 16.7% (not so many) I don't know how many bets were = -33% so couldn't calculate this from the above but it's looking good. Overall 126 bets = ROI of 21.52% :okMid range of 42 to 92% (in bold) is actually quite profitable at 20.02 points (with average odds of 2.02). I am quite impressed, we may be on to something here!!
True odds and optimal staking plan
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: True odds and optimal staking plan Kthom, The article isn't the easiest to follow but i'll try to explain. 3/1 expressed as a true probability = a 25% chance the formula for this is 1 / (odds+1) .... to get the % you need to multiply by 100 the 9 in the formula is the 8/1 odds expressed as a decimal. BUT this is only the first part of the equation.
(% Expectation - 100 ) x True Probability 5 (Average Risk Factor) Expectation = true probability x odds including stake (for 3/1 chance offered at 8/1 = 25 x 9 = 225) So we have (225-100) x 0.25 5 = 6.25% Hope that makes sense.