richard-westwood

Chepstow 1.35 This 2M 7F 131 yards veterans handicap chase has attracted ten old chasers but I think there’s a good bet here. Nigel Twiston-Davies has his team in terrific form winning with a staggering 13 of his last 29 runners (up to start of play Wednesday) and saddles his ten year old Good Boy Bobby here. He is , like several here, on a winning mark (14lb lower than his last win) and has an excellent record fresh with figures of 1112117 when racing following a break of 100 days or more. Everything looks right for a big run and he holds a good chance under trainer’s son Sam.   GOOD BOY BOBBY 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365   Newmarket 1.50 A good sized field of fifteen have declared for this Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes for two year olds. Gina Mangan appeared to go too fast on Heather Main’s Zoulu Chief in the big sales race at Newmarket last weekend clocking a couple of sub standard 11 second furlongs and paid for the fast fractions when weakening quickly close home over 6F. Back at the minimum trip of 5f and with James Doyle taking over in the saddle he’s worth an each way wager here with an additional place for the Oxford based trainer who’s also a fully trained opera singer.   ZOULU CHIEF 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Chepstow 2.10 The Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle, run over 2M 3F 100 yards heralds the start of the NH season for some and in Captain Teague we have a warm favourite who will be hard to beat if able to translate his decent bumper form to hurdles on his timber debut today. Already an Irish point winner he made a winning UK debut when winning a bumper at Plumpton last December prior to running a stormer in third as a 40/1 chance in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March, the only British based runner in the first eleven home. He’ll be hard to beat.   CAPTAIN TEAGUE 2 points win @ 10/11 BetVictor   Newmarket 2.25 Ralph Beckett’s two year old filly Skellet was so impressive at Salisbury 36 days ago that Juddmonte Stud stepped in to buy the filly which isn’t something they do that often. That was only a maiden but the form can’t have worked out any better with the runner up and fifth both winning since. Ryan Moore takes the reins and can take this Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes which has attracted a smallish field of seven. She may have most to worry from the Charlie Appleby Newmarket maiden winner Dance Sequence although questions can be asked over what she beat that day as the third has been beaten six times since and is now rated only 68.   SKELLET 2 points win @ 9/4 Coral   York 2.40 A class 2 1M 6F Heritage Handicap has attracted a decent sized field of fourteen and with the rain forecast at the track may fall to one of the three Charlie Johnston runners in Joe Fanning’s mount Dreams Adozen who appears to relish testing conditions so the more rain that rains the better. She sluiced up in the mud at Chester last time coming home 15L to the good and was only raised 6lb for that romp. In the hope that the track is hit by plenty of rain she’s the selection each way in an open contest.   DREAMS ADOZEN 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345   Newmarket 3.00 Only six turn up for the Group 2 Challenge Stakes run over 7F for three year olds and upwards. The best in on official ratings is the John & Thady Gosden trained Audience who arrives in decent form having finished runner up in similar company on his last two starts at York and Doncaster. His main challenger may be the Hannon’s Chindit, who leaves for India to begin his new career at stud after this race. He maybe better at a mile and it’s Rab Havlin’s mount who is the pick here.   AUDIENCE 1 point win @ 5/2 William Hill   York 3.15 Eighteen go to post for this two year old sales contest for colts and geldings. On ratings there’s not much between the whole field with just 12lb covering the field. The one who is very hard to get a handle on is the Ben Brookhouse trained African Spirit who impressed when winning a eight runner 7F maiden at Newcastle 17 days ago, coming home 5L to the good from the favourite who’s got an official rating of 70. Brookhouse is only in his second season as a trainer for his father and has been amongst the winners recently. If a bigger trainer trained this gelded son of Showcasing he would surely be a shorter price and he’s worth a each way bet with the additional place.   AFRICAN SPIRIT 1 point each way @ 7/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 3.35 A dozen three year old handicappers line up for this 1M class 2 Heritage Handicap, The Old Rowley Cup and we have a warm favourite in the shape of the John & Thady Gosden trained Humanity who is officially 8lb well in here and will be hard to beat. Qatar Racing’s Roaring Lion colt carries a 6lb penalty for his very easy victory on the all-weather at Kempton a fortnight ago but goes up 14lb in future handicaps. Oisin Murphy was on board last time and retains the ride here for his employers. He will be hard to beat and I can see him being very well backed.   HUMANITY 2 points win @ 3/1 BetVictor   York 3.50 A field of thirteen attend this 1M class 2 handicap which has a very open look about it. One horse who could still be well handicapped, especially if he gets his favoured soft ground is David O’Mera’s bottom weight Autumn Festival. He appeared to improve for the fitting of cheek pieces winning at Beverley and going down by a short head at Ayr on soft ground on his last two starts and can actually race off of a handicap mark 2lb lower than that last effort going up 5lb in future races. Harry Davies takes over from Jason Watson and can be competitive in this open looking handicap.   AUTUMN FESTIVAL 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 4.10 The Group One Fillies’ Mile has attracted a field of just eight with the Rockfel Stakes 2nd and 3rd Shuwari and Ylang Ylang renewing their rivalry with the former highly likely to confirm the form having finished 2 1/2L ahead even allowing for a very poor ride that day from Oisin Murphy. Tom Marquand replaces Murphy here and with the extra furlong likely to benefit this daughter of New Bay can give her trainer Ollie Sangster a Group One victory in his first full season. Her biggest threat may come from the Sandown maiden winner Classical Song.   SHUWARI 2 points win @ 7/4 William Hill    

Not To Real Bad                                                  5 15 Cra/                         1/40th of a pt win    12/1           -- N/R
Pretty Boy Floyd                                                  5 15 Cra/                         1/40th of a pt win    12/1
Be Proud                                                              3 55 Ayr/                          1/40th of a pt ew     22/1

730 chelm 
Q twenty boy.  8.0 3.7 
Time patrol. 7.8 3.7 
2 qualifiers ....short prices ...but I'll try 4pts both and 1pt forecasts .........
 

7.00 chelm 
2 qualifiers 
Lady gazelle. 7.8 6/1 
Jumeirah bridge. 7.4 10/1 
5pt win top rated ...3pt win Jumeirah .....1pt rev forecast 
Strong fav drawn 10 so will be interesting to see how this one pans out 

This begins an experiment today and we'll see how it pans out over the next couple months ....my friends have always hassled me to concentrate on the all weather. ... .the consistency of going ....the consistency of track i.e no undulations etc all help to strengthen ratings .....they've always been convinced my greatest ever win will come from the all weather ......so we've sat down and come up with a rock solid plan .......bottom 6 draws in 6f races .....because there's a 1/3 more probability that the winner will come from there ....that all compounds to improve the overall likeliness of picking the winner if the ratings hold of course ......of course it's not infallible ...horses can win from stall 9 etc if they are good enough on day ....but it's time to see whether a huge win is feasibly possible using these settings .......I mean you only have to double up a fiver ...4x ( 4 race winnings) to get about a grand ... 5 races ...5000 to 10000.....so you can see ...."if " there is a bias and if I can exploit that using the ratings then the possibility of predicting 3 4 5 races in row becomes much more likely .....so initially I'm going to keep testing the locks to see how it performs .....if it performs well overall then at some point I'll just go all out for the big win .....a by product of this is if it works the chances of forecasts should increase proportionally too so it's going to be an interesting test period and I'm going to cover forecasts as a given during testing 
Today we have 3 races to look at 
630 chelm 
Only 2 qualifiers (others poor ratings) 
Waiting game 8.0  4.2 
Hiatus.  7.5  14/1 
So I'll try 6pt top rated 2pts hiatus ...2x 1pt forecasts 

This begins an experiment today and we'll see how it pans out over the next couple months ....my friends have always hassled me to concentrate on the all weather. ... .the consistency of going ....the consistency of track i.e no undulations etc all help to strengthen ratings .....they've always been convinced my greatest ever win will come from the all weather ......so we've sat down and come up with a rock solid plan .......bottom 6 draws in 6f races .....because there's a 1/3 more probability that the winner will come from there ....that all compounds to improve the overall likeliness of picking the winner if the ratings hold of course ......of course it's not infallible ...horses can win from stall 9 etc if they are good enough on day ....but it's time to see whether a huge win is feasibly possible using these settings .......I mean you only have to double up a fiver ...4x ( 4 race winnings) to get about a grand ... 5 races ...5000 to 10000.....so you can see ...."if " there is a bias and if I can exploit that using the ratings then the possibility of predicting 3 4 5 races in row becomes much more likely .....so initially I'm going to keep testing the locks to see how it performs .....if it performs well overall then at some point I'll just go all out for the big win .....a by product of this is if it works the chances of forecasts should increase proportionally too so it's going to be an interesting test period and I'm going to cover forecasts as a given during testing 
Today we have 3 races to look at 
630 chelm 
Only 2 qualifiers (others poor ratings) 
Waiting game 8.0  4.2 
Hiatus.  7.5  14/1 
So I'll try 6pt top rated 2pts hiatus ...2x 1pt forecasts 

A big day for racing. 
two superb cards in Ireland at punchestown the last two days and well worth going over those races again. In Britain we have little like it on a Tuesday and Wednesday or during the week and Ireland is just a boat ride away.
Interesting debate about my “run” over the last eleven days on yesterday’s thread.
I’m putting up winners happily for others to take advantage of if they wish to. I was told it was easy and “anyone could do it by simply posting favourites.” (Funnily enough, I haven’t “simply posted favourites” and it hasn’t been “easy”, because it’s not “easy”.
As anyone following, knows, my winners range from 50/1 right down to odds on. When l said “ if it’s easy, then you do it”,  there was a marked change of lilt,  THEY CANT.

“you select up to four runners in races”
that is true but not in many races, and invariably when I do, I come up with the winner.  Last night Port Erin and the day before  in a twenty plus runner handicap the winner at 16/1.

“Profit and loss” is thrown at my selections I’ve answered that. My profit is currently altruistic in that I’m helping others to profit from the winners. The loss is for those that don’t get it.
 In my experience, the physics on Thursdays are exceptional. I’ve put forward a theory as to why that is.
Hopefully my prime objective a tricast will follow and I’m happy to wait.
Big opportunities later today and if I can put up a few winners then  I’ll do so. I’ve reached a target and hopefully can lessen the target 🎯 now and concentrate on improving my own range but as the saying goes “ if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”.
good luck guys.
the curragh 1:15
Wendla
win
bred in the purple and a good run on debut behind an Aga Khan horse. This race has been won last twice by a high draw and well placed here. Related to group 1 winner and Keane on board for top yard.
Saxon Land
each way 
behind an “eye catching” runner last time and collaborative form from that race could transfer here.  In the group horse stall (3). This  one could suprise some loftier runners. The true draw data horse here is porters place and on breeding paddy twomey’s runner could well win but is certain to be winning in due course and will benefit from the run. Certainly worth watching out for under Billy Lee….
 

Just started rating the big race Saturday.....as mentioned sometimes the computer throws up dark horses that usually are out of sorts or have been overlooked for whatever reasons .....and the initial first pass with ratings has thrown up a very strong dark horse in ....ZOFFEE 25/1 ....computer is loving this horse .....not final rating but I can't see much changing ...if anything if the ground stays on fast side it could get stronger still ....either way it's enough to invest 5pts Ew ante post 25/1 generally ...at that price computer is saying he's vastly overpriced ...like double what he should be 

8.00 kemp 
Nogos dream. 8.0 4/1 
Dark side thunder  7.8 11/2 
Time to have a bit of fun and attempt some rolling doubles .....if any winner I'll roll over to next rated race to see if can get a decent win on the board 😀
5pt wins both 

Just started rating the big race Saturday.....as mentioned sometimes the computer throws up dark horses that usually are out of sorts or have been overlooked for whatever reasons .....and the initial first pass with ratings has thrown up a very strong dark horse in ....ZOFFEE 25/1 ....computer is loving this horse .....not final rating but I can't see much changing ...if anything if the ground stays on fast side it could get stronger still ....either way it's enough to invest 5pts Ew ante post 25/1 generally ...at that price computer is saying he's vastly overpriced ...like double what he should be 

Just started rating the big race Saturday.....as mentioned sometimes the computer throws up dark horses that usually are out of sorts or have been overlooked for whatever reasons .....and the initial first pass with ratings has thrown up a very strong dark horse in ....ZOFFEE 25/1 ....computer is loving this horse .....not final rating but I can't see much changing ...if anything if the ground stays on fast side it could get stronger still ....either way it's enough to invest 5pts Ew ante post 25/1 generally ...at that price computer is saying he's vastly overpriced ...like double what he should be 

Just started rating the big race Saturday.....as mentioned sometimes the computer throws up dark horses that usually are out of sorts or have been overlooked for whatever reasons .....and the initial first pass with ratings has thrown up a very strong dark horse in ....ZOFFEE 25/1 ....computer is loving this horse .....not final rating but I can't see much changing ...if anything if the ground stays on fast side it could get stronger still ....either way it's enough to invest 5pts Ew ante post 25/1 generally ...at that price computer is saying he's vastly overpriced ...like double what he should be 

8.00 kemp 
Nogos dream. 8.0 4/1 
Dark side thunder  7.8 11/2 
Time to have a bit of fun and attempt some rolling doubles .....if any winner I'll roll over to next rated race to see if can get a decent win on the board 😀
5pt wins both 

8.00 kemp 
Nogos dream. 8.0 4/1 
Dark side thunder  7.8 11/2 
Time to have a bit of fun and attempt some rolling doubles .....if any winner I'll roll over to next rated race to see if can get a decent win on the board 😀
5pt wins both 

Just started rating the big race Saturday.....as mentioned sometimes the computer throws up dark horses that usually are out of sorts or have been overlooked for whatever reasons .....and the initial first pass with ratings has thrown up a very strong dark horse in ....ZOFFEE 25/1 ....computer is loving this horse .....not final rating but I can't see much changing ...if anything if the ground stays on fast side it could get stronger still ....either way it's enough to invest 5pts Ew ante post 25/1 generally ...at that price computer is saying he's vastly overpriced ...like double what he should be 

Just started rating the big race Saturday.....as mentioned sometimes the computer throws up dark horses that usually are out of sorts or have been overlooked for whatever reasons .....and the initial first pass with ratings has thrown up a very strong dark horse in ....ZOFFEE 25/1 ....computer is loving this horse .....not final rating but I can't see much changing ...if anything if the ground stays on fast side it could get stronger still ....either way it's enough to invest 5pts Ew ante post 25/1 generally ...at that price computer is saying he's vastly overpriced ...like double what he should be 

8.00 kemp 
Nogos dream. 8.0 4/1 
Dark side thunder  7.8 11/2 
Time to have a bit of fun and attempt some rolling doubles .....if any winner I'll roll over to next rated race to see if can get a decent win on the board 😀
5pt wins both 

8.00 kemp 
Nogos dream. 8.0 4/1 
Dark side thunder  7.8 11/2 
Time to have a bit of fun and attempt some rolling doubles .....if any winner I'll roll over to next rated race to see if can get a decent win on the board 😀
5pt wins both 

8.00 kemp 
Nogos dream. 8.0 4/1 
Dark side thunder  7.8 11/2 
Time to have a bit of fun and attempt some rolling doubles .....if any winner I'll roll over to next rated race to see if can get a decent win on the board 😀
5pt wins both 

A big day for me today.
 I’m I nearing  the anniversary of the day I started my first full time job. But more pertinent to the here and now I hope to land winner number forty for the month. I’m in the nervous thirties now after just two yesterday and while 35 is a good place to be, the final leg of an objective is always the hardest one.
I had a 36th at the weekend but somehow managed to lock myself out of the forum through misinputting the password and as it was an at the post selection the 12/1 winner went up on another forum. I was on which is the main thing. So, if I reach 39 today, just like Nikola Tesla, I can have two birthdays 🎂.
That name will come up frequently in my postings as his principles and theories around physics have a synergy and symmetry with my own assertions in events and conditions that do exist in a racing environment.
About a year ago I received some Stella  advice. I say Stella as that’s the ‘name’ of the  kind neighbour  who gave it to me. She’s an artist blest with patience and a disposition to suffer fools gladly and with the skill to study a patient thoughtfully  and objectively before making any assessment and giving a reply and a rough sketch ✍️ that both satisfies and placates in equal measure and paints a canvass, an oil painting and a portrait which even the subject will like. So her tactful reply, whilst lost on me initially for over a year took just one day to bear solid fruit in the form of a fifty to one winner. And in her own way laid a path obscure and windy as it has proved to be, along which only a few will walk to a fortune.
I was waxing lyrical again about the marvels of free energy to this poor soul  and how it could change the world eventually. I told her all about the physics and how this horse A  did this and that because of B not being there and traverse law and Tesla and once I’d taken a breath she took one herself and said “ write it down Sam!! Write it down!! Get a book or something. You could be right.
The very next day at cartmel a horse was clear on the home turn of what is a very idiosyncratic track when disaster struck enroute to a maiden victory for horse and jockey. The saddle weight fell off and Write it Down the runner up was awarded the race. I’m not of course superstitious or fatetalistic but it told me something and reading the race card it was a qualifier of free energy. Even armed with that knowledge the stellar advice continued to be ignored and ignored, until today I’m writing it down in a little blue book. A thousand thoughts and recall has been what I’ve relied on, no notebook has been set up.( until today) The book won’t instantly make a difference but it will in time and the point is you have to start somewhere and write it down Sam is singularly the best piece of advice I’ve had in the last year over racing.  “Here is four grand. Now go away and do your research and come back to me when you’ve achieved something “ is the next best but that happens next week. I tend to dwell on where I’ve gone wrong rather than right and @richard-westwood put a winner  in my lap yesterday and somehow I spurned that excellent piece of advice. Playing whodunnit instead and the butcher and the baker got my vote as the usual suspects, forgetting that keyser soce lies always in plain sight and   cluedo   duly bolted up. Concentrating on what’s gone right in the last ten days is what will get me over that invisible line today. For me a five timer has always been five singles and all at the post. I’ll stick to that formula today, but if the chance does arise, then a double would be nice. 
I’ve had a look at the opener in Ireland 🇮🇪 a juvenile hurdle. We used to have an expert assessor on the internet Batchelors Hall and I think he’s moved on to pastures greener either in his life ventures or in racing as he had a deep wealth of academic knowledge which he crammed into literary masterpieces of  Race assessments dedicated to the breeding pedigree of the assembled field of juvenile hurdles. These write up put anything I’ve read anywhere in the subject in the shade such were the depth of his articles. He was locked away in twitter last I saw of him.
He’d always slip in  some historic reference to Homer or whatever which only someone with classic knowledge found in alumni could grasp. It was like watching an episode of Morse where the pathologist would come down from the mountains and read from his literary pillars of stone when addressing the plods and only morse could follow him. As a two year day release at my local college was my university education I couldn’t always get the references but I got the gist in the main.
Sadly, twitter or twatter as I call it is a closed shop thanks to the less than useful megalomaniac Musk’s latest hiJack of something with a useful purpose. Musk’s other faux pax was the theft of the name of our greatest scientist to use as a tin car apology for something which destroys rather than enhances the environment. 
Bachelor’s Hall would not touch  the Irish arm of juvenile hurdling due to the Irish’s clear indifference to the drugs fuelled intoxication of it’s leading and minor trainers. This meant unless one of Mullin’s  own crossed the Irish Sea to race on our patch his work would be incomplete come Cheltenham. 
I’ve no indifference to Ireland’s scourge and I mention it frequently in my epistles ( by the way I can’t hold a candle to Batchelors hall but I’ve learned from the master and as I’m a gambler I just add cash to my opinions again a stellar opposite to the master)
So to the race and Gordon Elliott’s runner goes off here bottom weight effectively as only two fillies go under her penalty. But on strict  form lines through the horse she beat (Nurburgring) in the stewards last time, Wodhoohhas huge superiority over most of this field.
The fact as a filly she gets weight from all the principles including Joseph O’Briens runner even with the penalty, she ought to take the world of beating at the weights  alone. Add to the element of improvement as Elliott horses invariably come on in leaps and bounds. This one has started straight out of the traps as a stable switcher from Sir Michael Stoute and the Bajan Bandit with the gentle burrs and a brougue laced with that Caribbean lilt and a bit of Suffolk sent over the french horse whose pedigree always meant a future over sticks. Mere speculation of course but perhaps he has retained an interest which will see the horse back at Newmarket one day.
All horses in Irish racing are tarnished by association to the drugs blight and I can understand Batchelors Hall’s indifference to the Irish arm of juvenile hurdling. But to ignore the sport is to cut off your nose to spite your face. It’s akin to ignoring  athletics because of the blight of doping. I was captivated by Coe and Ovett in the eighties and later by lewis and Co in the sprints but cast your eye over  over Ben Johnson’s race and few come out of that with clear reputations.  Back to the race and wodooh looks nailed on to me.
Back to the anniversary and to celebrate it I’m landing my three tricasts this week and bringing up the forty winners  later today. If I manage that then I will crammed them into ten days rather than the thirty one which was my intended target. Once I’ve crosssed that boundary and the monkey 🙊 🙈 🙉  is off my back. I’ll be going quiet ( quieter) and concentrating on becoming a disciplined and profitable gambler. My main aim will be after today to actually earn from this beautiful game that some of us love to play in.
Hold your bets off though because this field will lose a few prior to a new market being formed and then you’ll avoid being hit with a massive rule four. This is one of the reasons I wait until the field is settled and set. 
Wodhooh
win
punchestown 1350
 
By the way I’m throwing the kitchen sink at todays onslaught on bookiedom and one of you will be a grand better off at close of play. Clue. It won’t be a bookie. Everything I’ve listed here and yesterday will be used to land these five winners with the last word being ALEXANDER.
 

730 wolv 
Tallulah myla. 8.0
Cinque Verde. 7.9 
Cluedo.  7.5 
Weird one ....I have cinque Verde within 1lb of the fav .....yes the fav might progress but he's 5/2 and cinque is 10/1!!......I'll try 5pt Ew and hope the 8 go to post 

Just for info .....when I rate races the computer also flags ...dark horses ....i.e horses which are out of form but very capable of winning ,( conditions ..weights ...etc ) ....reason in mentioning is because ..atrium who beat me in Saturday's big race was computers dark horse selection and there have been other races where the dark horse has placed or won at usually big prices because they are kinda out of form .....so when I rate in future I'll also post dark horses that are flagged just for interest ☺️

730 wolv 
Tallulah myla. 8.0
Cinque Verde. 7.9 
Cluedo.  7.5 
Weird one ....I have cinque Verde within 1lb of the fav .....yes the fav might progress but he's 5/2 and cinque is 10/1!!......I'll try 5pt Ew and hope the 8 go to post 

cluedo 7.30

Just for info .....when I rate races the computer also flags ...dark horses ....i.e horses which are out of form but very capable of winning ,( conditions ..weights ...etc ) ....reason in mentioning is because ..atrium who beat me in Saturday's big race was computers dark horse selection and there have been other races where the dark horse has placed or won at usually big prices because they are kinda out of form .....so when I rate in future I'll also post dark horses that are flagged just for interest ☺️