Racing chat - Thursday 12th October

[Sporting Sam]

A big day for racing. 
two superb cards in Ireland at punchestown the last two days and well worth going over those races again. In Britain we have little like it on a Tuesday and Wednesday or during the week and Ireland is just a boat ride away.

Interesting debate about my “run” over the last eleven days on yesterday’s thread.

I’m putting up winners happily for others to take advantage of if they wish to. I was told it was easy and “anyone could do it by simply posting favourites.” (Funnily enough, I haven’t “simply posted favourites” and it hasn’t been “easy”, because it’s not “easy”.

As anyone following, knows, my winners range from 50/1 right down to odds on. When l said “ if it’s easy, then you do it”,  there was a marked change of lilt,  THEY CANT.

“you select up to four runners in races”

that is true but not in many races, and invariably when I do, I come up with the winner.  Last night Port Erin and the day before  in a twenty plus runner handicap the winner at 16/1.

“Profit and loss” is thrown at my selections I’ve answered that. My profit is currently altruistic in that I’m helping others to profit from the winners. The loss is for those that don’t get it.

 In my experience, the physics on Thursdays are exceptional. I’ve put forward a theory as to why that is.

Hopefully my prime objective a tricast will follow and I’m happy to wait.

Big opportunities later today and if I can put up a few winners then  I’ll do so. I’ve reached a target and hopefully can lessen the target 🎯 now and concentrate on improving my own range but as the saying goes “ if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”.

good luck guys.

the curragh 1:15

Wendla

win

bred in the purple and a good run on debut behind an Aga Khan horse. This race has been won last twice by a high draw and well placed here. Related to group 1 winner and Keane on board for top yard.

Saxon Land

each way 

behind an “eye catching” runner last time and collaborative form from that race could transfer here.  In the group horse stall (3). This  one could suprise some loftier runners. The true draw data horse here is porters place and on breeding paddy twomey’s runner could well win but is certain to be winning in due course and will benefit from the run. Certainly worth watching out for under Billy Lee….

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[richard-westwood]

This begins an experiment today and we'll see how it pans out over the next couple months ....my friends have always hassled me to concentrate on the all weather. ... .the consistency of going ....the consistency of track i.e no undulations etc all help to strengthen ratings .....they've always been convinced my greatest ever win will come from the all weather ......so we've sat down and come up with a rock solid plan .......bottom 6 draws in 6f races .....because there's a 1/3 more probability that the winner will come from there ....that all compounds to improve the overall likeliness of picking the winner if the ratings hold of course ......of course it's not infallible ...horses can win from stall 9 etc if they are good enough on day ....but it's time to see whether a huge win is feasibly possible using these settings .......I mean you only have to double up a fiver ...4x ( 4 race winnings) to get about a grand ... 5 races ...5000 to 10000.....so you can see ...."if " there is a bias and if I can exploit that using the ratings then the possibility of predicting 3 4 5 races in row becomes much more likely .....so initially I'm going to keep testing the locks to see how it performs .....if it performs well overall then at some point I'll just go all out for the big win .....a by product of this is if it works the chances of forecasts should increase proportionally too so it's going to be an interesting test period and I'm going to cover forecasts as a given during testing 

Today we have 3 races to look at 

630 chelm 

Only 2 qualifiers (others poor ratings) 

Waiting game 8.0  4.2 

Hiatus.  7.5  14/1 

So I'll try 6pt top rated 2pts hiatus ...2x 1pt forecasts 

Edited October 12, 2023 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

7.00 chelm 

2 qualifiers 

Lady gazelle. 7.8 6/1 

Jumeirah bridge. 7.4 10/1 

5pt win top rated ...3pt win Jumeirah .....1pt rev forecast 

Strong fav drawn 10 so will be interesting to see how this one pans out 

Edited October 12, 2023 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

730 chelm 

Q twenty boy.  8.0 3.7 

Time patrol. 7.8 3.7 

2 qualifiers ....short prices ...but I'll try 4pts both and 1pt forecasts .........

 

[black rabbit]

Not To Real Bad                                                  5 15 Cra/                         1/40th of a pt win    12/1           -- N/R

Pretty Boy Floyd                                                  5 15 Cra/                         1/40th of a pt win    12/1

Be Proud                                                              3 55 Ayr/                          1/40th of a pt ew     22/1

Edited October 12, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[LEE-GRAYS]

Right day 5 lucky 31 challenge I pulled us back with +£21 yesterday +£0.5 p/l @Carole-dawney doing all 5 today 

[azzybear]

khan 12.50 France 

[azzybear]

osprey 1.15 ew 

[azzybear]

talentuoso 1.25 

[Sporting Sam]

Kawasaki 1250

Links Elpis

Auster

Both win

and reverse forecast 

Auster a winner here on October 13th last year beaten favourite last time out.

links Elphis on a hat trick 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Links Elphis wins at 5/2 in Japan one of only two winners on a twelve race card not to be a favourite. The lucky last home and abroad is a specialism for me. That’s the next race paid for at 1315@ the curragh. 
a third selection for the curragh 1315

GREENFINCH

WIN

Aidan O’Brien  second string here and drawn in centre of track seamie heffernan often rides these well and tongue tie on after out the back debut 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

30 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:

Links Elphis wins at 5/2 in Japan one of only two winners on a twelve race card not to be a favourite. The lucky last home and abroad is a specialism for me. That’s the next race paid for at 1315@ the curragh. 
a third selection for the curragh 1315

GREENFINCH

WIN

Aidan O’Brien  second string here and drawn in centre of track seamie heffernan often rides these well and tongue tie on after out the back debut 

Perhaps some of you can see why I have belief in myself and the systems I employ. My late selection at 20/1 turned over by the draw data horse the highly impressive Porters place. Both were excellent and Greenfinch visually so in early running and beaten by a sure fire group winner.

Next race I’ll assess will be the student’s  derby at 1645 at the curragh 

Hopefully a runner or two in between later on but a garden project awaits me good luck with your picks.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[azzybear]

blue in the west 2.00 

[azzybear]

space voyage 2.15

[Sporting Sam]

The curragh 1350

draw data 

mansour

each way

johnny murtaghs runner gets the ““magic” stall ten and tackles soft for the first time 

korkez bay

win

drops in class and if he’s been anywhere in training to porters who’s just run would win easily here.

there is a free energy horse here too and whilst best watched to see what happens both of  the O’Brien horses may be affected positively….

[azzybear]

1.55 that 2.15 

[Sporting Sam]

curragh 1500
 

Mersi diamond

Swiss army officcer

both win

 

[black rabbit]

6 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Not To Real Bad                                                  5 15 Cra/                         1/40th of a pt win    12/1           -- N/R

Pretty Boy Floyd                                                  5 15 Cra/                         1/40th of a pt win    12/1

Be Proud                                                              3 55 Ayr/                          1/40th of a pt ew     22/1

"BE PROUD"  from pillar to post  {not a day for coming from behind}     Duck,Curry,fur, 😀

[Sporting Sam]

The curragh 4:45

pachmena win

hszran each way

golden star each way 

flirida taiga 

indulging

combinstion tricast

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

The curragh 1715

three horses here including the draw data horse, a horse off for 340 days and a stable switcher from Tim Easterby  and for only the second time in my one year here a max bet.

The last one actually lost!!

all coming up in two minutes.

the draw data horse is top weight 

ELDA

Win

the maximum each way bet is

KEKE

Each way

the third selection is the stable switcher

NEARLY A GONNA

Each way

Seamie Heffernan is an eye catching booking for a horse in winning form but denied a clear run on final outing for old yard but still took third place.

good luck

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Ayr 1740

Golden valour 

Highlighter

both win

highlighter debuted in a class five and the winner who was well clear has gone on to be rated 98. That does not mean this runner is anywhere near that mark now, it is just interesting to know who they rubbed shoulders with in the past and which path they might have taken….. in any case though this maiden runs class six for the first time.

 Golden valour 

has dropped a long way and looks unexposed.

Kells 

each way 

is the free energy selection under traverse law of physics…..

the top weight carrying a penalty may alter things for Kells

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Chelmsford 1900

draw data

SUMAC

Win

still a maiden but no suprise to see an improvement here.

Archelinos gift

each way

down a mile to basement mark a breakthrough turf win at Windsor at big price. Denied clear run after tardy start latest run but still got second so obvious chance if breaking on terms.

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

£10.00

(2x £5.00)

EW Single

@ 22/1

You won £27.00! (including stake)

 



Placed

8 - Sumac @ 22/1

Win

 

 

Posted the selections arse about face and sumac was an each way bet  (unofficially off the mark with that placing) but not a counter but good to see the draw data working well at least.

[Sporting Sam]

Chelmsford 1930

kodi hawk

each way

nawand

q twenty boy

both win

Comb f/c

kodi hawk makes handicap debut drops in class and been over 50 lengths down in fields up to now 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[richard-westwood]

11 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

This begins an experiment today and we'll see how it pans out over the next couple months ....my friends have always hassled me to concentrate on the all weather. ... .the consistency of going ....the consistency of track i.e no undulations etc all help to strengthen ratings .....they've always been convinced my greatest ever win will come from the all weather ......so we've sat down and come up with a rock solid plan .......bottom 6 draws in 6f races .....because there's a 1/3 more probability that the winner will come from there ....that all compounds to improve the overall likeliness of picking the winner if the ratings hold of course ......of course it's not infallible ...horses can win from stall 9 etc if they are good enough on day ....but it's time to see whether a huge win is feasibly possible using these settings .......I mean you only have to double up a fiver ...4x ( 4 race winnings) to get about a grand ... 5 races ...5000 to 10000.....so you can see ...."if " there is a bias and if I can exploit that using the ratings then the possibility of predicting 3 4 5 races in row becomes much more likely .....so initially I'm going to keep testing the locks to see how it performs .....if it performs well overall then at some point I'll just go all out for the big win .....a by product of this is if it works the chances of forecasts should increase proportionally too so it's going to be an interesting test period and I'm going to cover forecasts as a given during testing 

Today we have 3 races to look at 

630 chelm 

Only 2 qualifiers (others poor ratings) 

Waiting game 8.0  4.2 

Hiatus.  7.5  14/1 

So I'll try 6pt top rated 2pts hiatus ...2x 1pt forecasts 

 

11 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

7.00 chelm 

2 qualifiers 

Lady gazelle. 7.8 6/1 

Jumeirah bridge. 7.4 10/1 

5pt win top rated ...3pt win Jumeirah .....1pt rev forecast 

Strong fav drawn 10 so will be interesting to see how this one pans out 

 

10 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

730 chelm 

Q twenty boy.  8.0 3.7 

Time patrol. 7.8 3.7 

2 qualifiers ....short prices ...but I'll try 4pts both and 1pt forecasts .........

 

2 out of 3 ....and last one lost in a photo so that's not too shabby ....+27.00 

[Sporting Sam]

I’ve been badly distracted today Richard and probably shouldn’t have played. Away from here it has been a very successful day and have raised a tonne for the local hospice literally turning horse poo into cash. 
 

chelmsford 2000

the world and his bike will be on so sleepy who should gain compensation for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory last time. But chance may have gone.

Storm Melody

each way

reckon im hot

win

the saver

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[azzybear]

swing to the stars 8.30

[Sporting Sam]

Chelmsford 2030

shalfa

each way

point of view

each way

storymaker

win

[Sporting Sam]

Presique isle down 2056

aleman

Win

[Sporting Sam]

Day summed up succinctly as Aleman gets home easily at presique isle downs but I’m typing in the selection as they exit the gates.😮 .

presique isle downs

2121

i strong

cactus Kevin 

On an island 🏝 

combination forecast 

I strong and cactus Kevin second and third over course last time.

on an island good third last time .

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam