Racing Chat Tuesday 10th October

[Sporting Sam]

A big day for me today.

 I’m I nearing  the anniversary of the day I started my first full time job. But more pertinent to the here and now I hope to land winner number forty for the month. I’m in the nervous thirties now after just two yesterday and while 35 is a good place to be, the final leg of an objective is always the hardest one.

I had a 36th at the weekend but somehow managed to lock myself out of the forum through misinputting the password and as it was an at the post selection the 12/1 winner went up on another forum. I was on which is the main thing. So, if I reach 39 today, just like Nikola Tesla, I can have two birthdays 🎂.

That name will come up frequently in my postings as his principles and theories around physics have a synergy and symmetry with my own assertions in events and conditions that do exist in a racing environment.

About a year ago I received some Stella  advice. I say Stella as that’s the ‘name’ of the  kind neighbour  who gave it to me. She’s an artist blest with patience and a disposition to suffer fools gladly and with the skill to study a patient thoughtfully  and objectively before making any assessment and giving a reply and a rough sketch ✍️ that both satisfies and placates in equal measure and paints a canvass, an oil painting and a portrait which even the subject will like. So her tactful reply, whilst lost on me initially for over a year took just one day to bear solid fruit in the form of a fifty to one winner. And in her own way laid a path obscure and windy as it has proved to be, along which only a few will walk to a fortune.

I was waxing lyrical again about the marvels of free energy to this poor soul  and how it could change the world eventually. I told her all about the physics and how this horse A  did this and that because of B not being there and traverse law and Tesla and once I’d taken a breath she took one herself and said “ write it down Sam!! Write it down!! Get a book or something. You could be right.

The very next day at cartmel a horse was clear on the home turn of what is a very idiosyncratic track when disaster struck enroute to a maiden victory for horse and jockey. The saddle weight fell off and Write it Down the runner up was awarded the race. I’m not of course superstitious or fatetalistic but it told me something and reading the race card it was a qualifier of free energy. Even armed with that knowledge the stellar advice continued to be ignored and ignored, until today I’m writing it down in a little blue book. A thousand thoughts and recall has been what I’ve relied on, no notebook has been set up.( until today) The book won’t instantly make a difference but it will in time and the point is you have to start somewhere and write it down Sam is singularly the best piece of advice I’ve had in the last year over racing.  “Here is four grand. Now go away and do your research and come back to me when you’ve achieved something “ is the next best but that happens next week. I tend to dwell on where I’ve gone wrong rather than right and @richard-westwood put a winner  in my lap yesterday and somehow I spurned that excellent piece of advice. Playing whodunnit instead and the butcher and the baker got my vote as the usual suspects, forgetting that keyser soce lies always in plain sight and   cluedo   duly bolted up. Concentrating on what’s gone right in the last ten days is what will get me over that invisible line today. For me a five timer has always been five singles and all at the post. I’ll stick to that formula today, but if the chance does arise, then a double would be nice. 
I’ve had a look at the opener in Ireland 🇮🇪 a juvenile hurdle. We used to have an expert assessor on the internet Batchelors Hall and I think he’s moved on to pastures greener either in his life ventures or in racing as he had a deep wealth of academic knowledge which he crammed into literary masterpieces of  Race assessments dedicated to the breeding pedigree of the assembled field of juvenile hurdles. These write up put anything I’ve read anywhere in the subject in the shade such were the depth of his articles. He was locked away in twitter last I saw of him.

He’d always slip in  some historic reference to Homer or whatever which only someone with classic knowledge found in alumni could grasp. It was like watching an episode of Morse where the pathologist would come down from the mountains and read from his literary pillars of stone when addressing the plods and only morse could follow him. As a two year day release at my local college was my university education I couldn’t always get the references but I got the gist in the main.
Sadly, twitter or twatter as I call it is a closed shop thanks to the less than useful megalomaniac Musk’s latest hiJack of something with a useful purpose. Musk’s other faux pax was the theft of the name of our greatest scientist to use as a tin car apology for something which destroys rather than enhances the environment. 

Bachelor’s Hall would not touch  the Irish arm of juvenile hurdling due to the Irish’s clear indifference to the drugs fuelled intoxication of it’s leading and minor trainers. This meant unless one of Mullin’s  own crossed the Irish Sea to race on our patch his work would be incomplete come Cheltenham. 
I’ve no indifference to Ireland’s scourge and I mention it frequently in my epistles ( by the way I can’t hold a candle to Batchelors hall but I’ve learned from the master and as I’m a gambler I just add cash to my opinions again a stellar opposite to the master)

So to the race and Gordon Elliott’s runner goes off here bottom weight effectively as only two fillies go under her penalty. But on strict  form lines through the horse she beat (Nurburgring) in the stewards last time, Wodhoohhas huge superiority over most of this field.

The fact as a filly she gets weight from all the principles including Joseph O’Briens runner even with the penalty, she ought to take the world of beating at the weights  alone. Add to the element of improvement as Elliott horses invariably come on in leaps and bounds. This one has started straight out of the traps as a stable switcher from Sir Michael Stoute and the Bajan Bandit with the gentle burrs and a brougue laced with that Caribbean lilt and a bit of Suffolk sent over the french horse whose pedigree always meant a future over sticks. Mere speculation of course but perhaps he has retained an interest which will see the horse back at Newmarket one day.
All horses in Irish racing are tarnished by association to the drugs blight and I can understand Batchelors Hall’s indifference to the Irish arm of juvenile hurdling. But to ignore the sport is to cut off your nose to spite your face. It’s akin to ignoring  athletics because of the blight of doping. I was captivated by Coe and Ovett in the eighties and later by lewis and Co in the sprints but cast your eye over  over Ben Johnson’s race and few come out of that with clear reputations.  Back to the race and wodooh looks nailed on to me.

Back to the anniversary and to celebrate it I’m landing my three tricasts this week and bringing up the forty winners  later today. If I manage that then I will crammed them into ten days rather than the thirty one which was my intended target. Once I’ve crosssed that boundary and the monkey 🙊 🙈 🙉  is off my back. I’ll be going quiet ( quieter) and concentrating on becoming a disciplined and profitable gambler. My main aim will be after today to actually earn from this beautiful game that some of us love to play in.

Hold your bets off though because this field will lose a few prior to a new market being formed and then you’ll avoid being hit with a massive rule four. This is one of the reasons I wait until the field is settled and set. 

Wodhooh

win

punchestown 1350

 

By the way I’m throwing the kitchen sink at todays onslaught on bookiedom and one of you will be a grand better off at close of play. Clue. It won’t be a bookie. Everything I’ve listed here and yesterday will be used to land these five winners with the last word being ALEXANDER.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[black rabbit]

great read sam bravo 👏

[calva decoy]

4.55 Huntingdon - EDISON KENT 10/3 bet365 , finished 2nd last 2 runs but trainer J.Owen is 2/3 at the course .

5.30 Huntingdon - SPITFIRE BRIDGE 25/1 eway bet365 ( 4 places ) I do like the West / Goldstein combination but usually at Plumpton / Fontwell , horse out of Sixties Icon so should relish the fast going , whim bet but hey ho .

[azzybear]

anabaka du burn 10.50 France 

[azzybear]

jet boy conti 11.20 

[black rabbit]

Kitsune Power                        4 42 Lec/                            1/40th of a pt ew     40/1

[LEE-GRAYS]

Another bad day yesterday giving @Carole-dawney the reins today -£17

[Sporting Sam]

1350 punchestown

WODHOOH

Win @ 6/5

As anticipated 🐜 one of the market leaders has pulled out and hefty deductions avoided. Joseph O’Brien’s Cossack Chach a non runner traverse law even at this lowly level of weights say advantage goes to first available horse at the bottom of the weights with the ability to act on it. That brings into play the most experienced horse pigeon house there is joint ownership here involving  Trainer Jessica Harrington. I’m still keen however on Woodhoh being the lowest weighted horse of four contenders most able to take advantage of the free energy available and at 6:5 to frank the form of his last time out win. Imagine the huge deduction and money already lost if you’d backed him earlier? 

leicester1632

the draw  data throws up two runners here.

last year’s winning stall 9 

presents dark horse 

kitsune power 

Each way

with an opportunity given he’s slipped to a low mark compared to his hat 🎩 trick run last summer badly out of form since but has had plenty of runs the change in ground here may suit Rail de silva is a great job jockey and although he doesn’t win many he can do a great specific job and is a one trick jockey.

intricacy in stall 11 however is the true draw data horse given his current form too and an assessment puts him in within one stall of the actual figure of ten occupied by hat trick seeking forceful speed ridden for AMO by our own answer to Billy Lee,  Billy loughnane. I’m watching this lads progress and hoping He doesn’t come off worse in this marriage set way below the clouds ⛅️ and that he stays closer to racings roots rather than these fly by nights, lest they ruin him.

Intricacy

win

Was close up behind Greek order the Cambridgeshire runner up and the next horse won next time out.
in that group rated handicap, Greek Order lost out on the physics to a horse running the rail with a huge advantage as top weight of traverse law and free energy an unbeatable combination. So intricacy’s form reads very strongly here.

Leicester 1337

draw data 

Third highest weighted highest drawn horse

is 

HORSE WHISPERER 

Win

debued in vaunted company in a class two no chance and finished out the back winner has gone on to be rated 98

sam story second and third race but winners home to be 79

set alight on handicap debut to win and a good second latest and on bare form going to be a handful here.

Lowest drawn lowest weighted Is

ENSIGN WILSON ⚽️ 
Mark Usher introduced monks mead in high summer in summer circumstances having shown nothing headgear and draw and weights and jockey change suggests better to come off these terms in handicap debut.

the draw data horse is

BATTLEOFBALTIMORE

Each way

a Newmarket raider by exceptional South Africa ex jockey  Dylan Cunha who recorded a royal ascot Victory in little more than first season.
 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[MCLARKE]

Interesting reading Sam, perhaps you could expand on the subject of free energy.

Hopefully you will soon transform winners into profits. If I could offer you some advice it would be.

1. Take advantage of bookmakers offers, thousands can be made before you get shut down.

2. Take the early prices of BOG bookmakers.

3. If you bet at the off take BSP not ISP.

Good luck !

[azzybear]

karma d olivate 1.07 

[azzybear]

queen of afrika 1.37 ew 

[Sporting Sam]

Brighton 1345

lady showcasing

each way

[Sporting Sam]

Off and away!!

Punchestown 1425

king of park

win

diamindinthemud

each way

[Sporting Sam]

Next race at punchestown

1500 hrs

Zanahiyr to win

Zanahiyr to win by 3.0 lengths or more 11/8

andy dufrense to win without zanahiyr 100/30

 

just a three runner and a race in question although to me an exciting duel between a very good class 1 flat horse and Newmarket winner in the ring with a horse who has chased hard behind the great constitution hill.

My estimed friend wouldn’t touch this race with a barge pole due to the record of the middle trainer, I even dedicated a song 🎵 skandal in downpatrick 🎵 if you recall. 
on all known form the very talented Brynes runner could win this because at the weights he’d be receiving a ton of weight from these but to me the rating are more important and performances of form in the book and I don’t think you’d find any stronger form than ZANAHIYR. coming third twice to the champion national hunt horse in consecutive races . The picture is completed by Andy Dufrense of the shawshanks redemption and every time I see this horse I think of the scene when Andy barricades himself in the wardens office and plays that beautiful music if Andy Dufrense wins today It’d be the shawsam’s redemption 

the bottom line 

even though run for Oscar is 19lb to the good given the jockeys claim a horse that chased home a 175 rated horse to within 3:5 lengths is different class and although the Newmarket winner has speed and class should be no match for the selection and may well falter under pressure here.

 

Zanahiyr to win

Zanahiyr to win by 3.0 lengths or more 11/8

andy dufrense to win without zanahiyr 100/30

Edited October 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

punchestown 1535

It is going to be very difficult given the level of improvement Willie Mullins runners show from race to race but they can be vulnerable on debuts and the Mullins horse was turned over in the race which POUR LES FILLES

was due to race in and given that I was very keen on this horse then it would be folly to leave him out here.

Gordon Elliott is not saving his horses for anything or later just now and he clearly has his string in great order right now. 
 

 POUR LES FILLES

each way 

I DID NOT REALUSE THE PRICE SO WIN BET THESE TWO

POUR LES FILLES

win

Antrim coast

win

Edited October 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Punchestown

4:10

IRISH ENVOY

WIN

SHEEPHSVEN FLYER

WIN

REBEL WALTZ

EACH WAY

[azzybear]

Chelsea green 4.32 ew 

[azzybear]

if I say 4.20 ew 

[azzybear]

gift edge 4.40 ew

[Sporting Sam]

Huntingdon

the lucky last

1730

the inn crowd

topkapi

both win

may dancer

each way

[Sporting Sam]

Leicester 5:40

TUSCAN

Win

David O’ Merara

won off 87 in a class three stakes last year.

and the draw data horse

Direct Hit

win

Tim Easterby runner these horses are trained to win at will by this trainer at his time of choosing.

THE WAY TO THE STARS

Each way

L

•  

[Sporting Sam]

Hit the xbar in Leicester’s lucky last.
All in all, not to bad a run of results in Ireland. Having bagged four and two of them in 21 and 25 field races.

Hopefully a winner in one of the final two contests at Southwell at 2000 and 2030 hours…..

 I wonder if anyone made a grand today? 

[Sporting Sam]

 

Southwell 2000

profitable Edge

win

on the balance of probabilities they gave this one a name so they could keep a straight face when walking away with the readies. He drops into a class six again having won easily at ripon. If not well  won’t win.

[Sporting Sam]

Southwell 2030
 

 

Blue Hawaii 

each way 

Won when last seen in the flat has a full house in national hunt and flat and fit enough from the jumps to get involved here.

Black smoke

lednekov

both lightly raced and very well treated 

Lednekov 113 record here

bith win 

[Sporting Sam]

round up. 
five from five at punchestown.

. Zanahiya was different class as expected having chased home constitution Hill ( twice in grade ones) but stablemate Andy Dufrense almost pulled off the “suresam redemption” by beating the second horse home off levels and would have paid a winner @ 100/30 in betting without the favourite and would have  given six winners from five races on the card! 
Irish Envoy was a 16/1 winner at 102 (on handicap debut) which was the ceiling for the handicap. From 67 up.

Wodhooh. was a sensational winner and although the horse was put up very very early by my standards the advice was “hold hold “ avoiding a big deduction. Tracked his rivals and there were only three horses involved all the way until Wodooh turned on the screws and was straightening up for the  finish when the other two were negotiating the last. King of park had won idling previously and only needed a shake of the reigns again, winning apologetically. Antrim coast called time on the desired five timer. I did what I’d hoped and there was even an example of free energy and traverse law thrown in at the beginning.

the five

Wodhooh

Zanahiya
Irish Envoy
King of park
Antrim coast

making it forty ( 40) winners since 1st October. The 33/1, winner at Dundalk seems an age ago but it was only 23 rd September.
I can move on now and I have little to prove so I can just concentrate on the system now. 
ALEXANDER.

[MCLARKE]

51 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:

making it forty ( 40) winners since 1st October.

Well done. What was the profit ?