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DanV89

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Posts posted by DanV89

    Racing Chat-Monday 20th February.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7pm Newcastle - Mr Coco Bean - 8/1 - various bookies

    The consistent Mr Coco Bean has only been out of the first 4 once in his last 6 starts and so should rate a solid ew bet here. He was behind both Odd Socks Havana & Laoch Gach La last time however there is hope that he can reverse that form. He was briefly short of room 3f out and had to be switched fairly sharply left, his challenge then being taken down the far side which as everyone know is not the place to be at Newcastle. Despite being against that bias he was only beaten less than 3 lengths. He has a weight swing with the two mentioned above and with a better passage I think he should have a decent chance.

    Racing Chat Monday 13th February

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    8pm Wolves - Kodiac Sign - 16/1

    This could run terribly as has shown next to nothing for David Evans so far, but there was reason for optimism when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and there are a few things which catch my eye tonight, at the price looks worth a small ew investment. All runs so far have been over 6 or 7f, steps up to 8.5f for the first time tonight which is the first pointer. Has had 4 handicap runs so far, again all over 6 or 7f and all in Class 4 or 5, drops into a Class 6 for the first time tonight. First handicap run was off 78, runs off 64 tonight so has dropped a stone in the ratings. Since being with David Evans has been ridden each time by 5lb claimer J. Williams, but the brilliant Rossa Ryan takes over the ride tonight. Finally, Evans has had 20 runners in the last 2 weeks, with 2 winners, Rossa Ryan rode them both. As I say, may just be a poor animal but if there's any support throughout the day may be worth taking note of.

    Racing Chat-Tuesday 7th February.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

    I'm confused lol ? ?......I meant back and rate the low draws 1 to 7 ....on the inside rail ....it isn't a new thing its just the nature of the courses and distances ....by the time they've sorted themselves out the outside draws are off the pace by as much as 4 lengths sometimes and as they pull into the home straight its difficult to make up the ground ....not impossible but it gives you a definate edge I've been noting down races where it seems to happen a lot ....at the moment I have 

    Wolv  6f 7f 8f low1- 7 

    Southwell 8f low1- 7 

    Newc 6f (1-8 )

    Newc 7f (low 1-7 )

    Newc 8f low 1-7 

    Kemp 7f  low 1-7 

    Kemp 8f low 1-8 

    I.e the race 630 kemp tonight ....7f result 7 ...13 ...5 ....

    I’ve always thought the high draws are favoured at Newcastle in races anything up to a mile as they’re run on the straight course and the higher draws are closer to the stands rail?

    Racing Chat-Wednesday 8th February.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    9 hours ago, DanV89 said:

    6.00 Kempton - Marchetti - 7/1

    Drifted a fair bit this morning which is obviously a concern but think he has a decent chance in this. Has run well in handicaps the last twice and now drops into a Classified race. Last run in particular was promising given she was trapped wide all the way around with no cover and then wasn't knocked about at all, still finishing reasonably well only beaten 3 lengths. Good draw tonight and Rossa Ryan booked I think 7/1 is fair enough.

     

    6.30 Kempton - Sisters In The Sky - 9/2

    Won last time over C & D and did so whilst overcoming a pace bias to the front runners. 2nd, 3rd, 4 & 5th that day were all prominent during the race and Sisters In The Sky was the only one to come from the rear to just nab Satin Snake on the line. Up to a mark of 70 now but I don't think that should be too much of an issue as was a fairly decent 2yo and was running off marks in the 80s at one point.

     

    7.00 Kempton - Top Of The Class - 12/1

    Taking fitness on trust with this one as hasn't had a run since October but ran fairly well on handicap debut off 68 over 7f, slightly hampered and then the jockey pretty much stopped riding but stayed on okay into 5th beaten 5 lengths. Down into a Class 6, down 3lb and Ryan Sexton 3lb takes off a further 3lbs. 12/1 looks a decent ew price.

    4th, nowhere & 4th. 
     

    Frustrating. 

    Racing Chat-Wednesday 8th February.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6.00 Kempton - Marchetti - 7/1

    Drifted a fair bit this morning which is obviously a concern but think he has a decent chance in this. Has run well in handicaps the last twice and now drops into a Classified race. Last run in particular was promising given she was trapped wide all the way around with no cover and then wasn't knocked about at all, still finishing reasonably well only beaten 3 lengths. Good draw tonight and Rossa Ryan booked I think 7/1 is fair enough.

     

    6.30 Kempton - Sisters In The Sky - 9/2

    Won last time over C & D and did so whilst overcoming a pace bias to the front runners. 2nd, 3rd, 4 & 5th that day were all prominent during the race and Sisters In The Sky was the only one to come from the rear to just nab Satin Snake on the line. Up to a mark of 70 now but I don't think that should be too much of an issue as was a fairly decent 2yo and was running off marks in the 80s at one point.

     

    7.00 Kempton - Top Of The Class - 12/1

    Taking fitness on trust with this one as hasn't had a run since October but ran fairly well on handicap debut off 68 over 7f, slightly hampered and then the jockey pretty much stopped riding but stayed on okay into 5th beaten 5 lengths. Down into a Class 6, down 3lb and Ryan Sexton 3lb takes off a further 3lbs. 12/1 looks a decent ew price.

    Racing Chat-Tuesday 7th February.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, DanV89 said:

    5.30 Wolves - Ballyare

    3lb below last winning mark and back on last AW winning mark of 75 tonight. Last run had a (poor) claimer on at Newcastle, was drawn high (which is the place to be i.e. near side running rail), jockey however switched left from the stalls and raced towards the far side, as a result could never get involved. Again has a nice draw tonight and has the assistance of arguably the best apprentice in the race in Ryan Sexton on board. Is a hold up horse so will require luck in running, but there does look to be a fair bit of pace in this race with Vespasien, Algheed, Intervention & Walking On Clouds all likely to go forward which should aid the selections chance. 14/1 if you're fortunate enough to have an account with them (I don't) so have taken 12/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.

    Close 3rd good run. Didn't go as quickly as expected early on and winner managed to stack them up.

    Racing Chat-Tuesday 7th February.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5.30 Wolves - Ballyare

    3lb below last winning mark and back on last AW winning mark of 75 tonight. Last run had a (poor) claimer on at Newcastle, was drawn high (which is the place to be i.e. near side running rail), jockey however switched left from the stalls and raced towards the far side, as a result could never get involved. Again has a nice draw tonight and has the assistance of arguably the best apprentice in the race in Ryan Sexton on board. Is a hold up horse so will require luck in running, but there does look to be a fair bit of pace in this race with Vespasien, Algheed, Intervention & Walking On Clouds all likely to go forward which should aid the selections chance. 14/1 if you're fortunate enough to have an account with them (I don't) so have taken 12/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.

    Racing chat-monday 6th feb

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Trotter said:

    Wolv 6.00

    Quite a hot favourite here in Tollerton Forest who has won his last two races. But they were both classified stakes and she's back in a handicap today. What's more she won those 2 races on consecutive days and has now had  a month off ...... maybe she peaked for those 2 days and now might need a run ?. Most of the others here are class 6 handicappers who don't win  but regularly run to a level pretty consistently. Looking for one that's doing something different today and She's A Mirage has first time visor. She's been getting beaten 2 or 3 lengths in her handicaps and if the visor sharpens her up a bit she could improve a couple of lengths ....... anyway in a poor race she's an EW price

    She's A Mirage - EW at 14/1 bet365

     

    Wolv 6.30 

    Hubert's Dream is favourite here having won 3 on the bounce before finishing 5th last time. During that run he's gone up 23lbs in the weights and maybe that last run indicates that the handicapper has caught up with him as he's forced into Class 4 races now having been winning in class 6 and class 5. Also not keen on him dropping in trip now he's in better races. He won his treble front running but might not be able to shake off these better horses at a faster trip.  Worth taking on I think. My selection is a CD winner, won and 3rd in her last 2 and I can se her sitting behind Hubert then having too much pace for him in the finish

    Cariad Angel - win at 11/4 bet365

    Agree with trying to oppose Tollerton Forest @Trotter. I am going with So Chic at 5/1 who caught my eye on her last run, very tenderly handled and stayed on into 6th under hands and heels. Incidentally, the winner of that race was Hubert's Dream (who you're opposing in the following race) so will be interesting to see how So Chic runs as a guide to that form.

    Racing Chat - Friday 30th September.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    11 hours ago, Darran said:

    Beneficio is back out tomorrow and for once it is at a watchable time, 11.45am. She goes in race 8 at Moonee Valley and here is my preview.

    Squizzy Mizzy - Finally managed to win above BM58 level last time at Mornington when winning on a Heavy 9 track. She looks likely to try and help set the pace alongside Beneficio although I am not sure she had quite the same ability as she does, but she does have an inside berth. Also she isn't always quick away so Beneficio might be able to get across before she shows her early speed.
     
    Viviane - The short price favourite based on her 2nd to a horse who was landing a hat-trick last time at Sandown. They pulled clear of the rest so it looks like it is good form although nothing really came from behind so it could have been an advantage being on the pace. She had landed a hat-trick prior to that winning her maiden and then a BM64 at Sandown last year and winning 1st up at Sale at the start of this month. Last year she had been settling just off the speed, but she has been more prominent on the 2 starts this year and has a good draw in 4 to take advantage of her speed. One for the shortlist.
     
    Mouse Almighty - Is her trainer's first ever runner in Melbourne being based in NSW at Wagga Wagga and she was a winner on her home track in a Heavy 10 a couple of weeks. She does seem better on a wet track and is way more exposed compared to the leading fancies here who have plenty of potential progression to come.
     
    Tycoon Humma - Was only 7th behind Viviane at Sandown last time although as I pointed out above it did look to be an advantage to be on the speed. She ran well here in March over 955m when she had a bad draw and finished 4th and has had to face some tougher tasks than this. Did finish 2nd in front of Beneficio at Sandown in May although she had the advantage of being in the middle of the track and whilst she is capable of hitting the frame, I am not sure she will have enough to win. For me Beneficio can reverse the form.
     
    Beneficio - As much as the Ballarat race wasn't a strong one she could hardly have been more impressive in the style of victory. She powered away from them in the straight without the jockey having to make an effort and he got off and said she had done it with plenty left in the tank. He also added that Moonee Valley should be ideal for her giving her running style and that she could be up to getting some black type at some point. The 2nd at Caulfield on her last prep is arguably the best form in the race so I think she has a very good chance again. Her 2 runs over 1000m so far have been disappointing on the face of it, but I suspect the first one she was over the top and at Sandown she was on the wrong part of the track and came back with an injury so I can forgive both. 1000m should in theory be her ideal trip in my view. The draw hasn't been ideal, but I am hopeful at the very least with her early speed that she can get across and be no more than 1 off the rail. 
     
    Donna Natalina - Disappointing at Sale last time when didn't pick up at all although I suspect she is capable of better than that having been a good 2nd at Mildura first up. Steps up to metro level here though and would be a bit of a surprise if she was up to it.
     
    Hypothetical - Only had the 3 starts to date and followed a 2nd first up at Mornington by winning at Sandown in July. A month later she won at Sale in a BM64 and did it quite nicely given she looked like she was still learning. Her first two races were over 1200m and the last one was over 1106m so does drop down in trip again which is a slight concern especially round this sharp track. She won a jump out last week though so is still ticking over nicely. She clearly has a nice profile but as well as the trip doubt she has a horrid draw as she is on the outside and the combination might well be enough to see her run well in defeat rather than win.
     
    Jillette - Likes Caulfield having run well there in December and January winning 1 and finishing 2nd and 3rd. The concern here though is she has not run well on her first two runs back and was just 10th in the Viviane race last time. 
     
    Rose Tycoon - Gets a run if she wants one with the 3 non-runners above her. She had a bad draw at Sandown last time, but flew home to finish 3rd and was 3L behind Viviane who was 2nd. As I mention above it seemed to be better on the speed in that race and she was the only one to be finishing strongly and had to go much wider than the first two. That suggests that she could be up to this grade having won a BM58 at Ballarat last month. Now she doesn't have a great draw here either in 11, but to my eye if she didn't have to go so wide at Sandown she would have been much closer and possibly would have finished in front of her. If there is one horse in the race that is really over-priced it is her and I think the draw is factored into the price.
     
    Onika - Also gets a run if she wants it. Impressively won a maiden at Bendigo in February and then ran 4th in her first handicap the next month at Sandown. Was last of 7 a couple of weeks after that though and I suspect she may need a bit longer to get up to this sort of grade.
     
    Verdict - Not a bad little race as you would expect for the grade and I do think Beneficio is over-priced. I think at worse she will be 1 off the rail due to her early speed and I think she will be hard to run down over this trip. The Caulfield 2nd shows how good she is and I everything points to the fact that she is still improving based on the win a couple of weeks ago. Clearly the favourite has a chance, but Viviane looks very short to me at evens and I would much rather back Rose Tycoon at double figure odds to over turn the form. Yes she has a bad draw again, but I loved the way she was finding the line at Sandown and if she gets some luck in running she might be the main danger to Beneficio. Hypothetical is an obvious danger as well and Tycoon Humma also has place claims.
     
    Beneficio e/w @ 11/2 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes
    Rose Tycoon e/w @ 14/1 with everyone

    Good luck Darran - do you know where it will be shown?

    Racing chat - Saturday 17th Sept

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    Ayr gold cup 

    Popmaster  9.0 18.0 

    Aleezdancer  8.8 34.0 

    Khanjar   8.8 5.4 

    Motagally  8.5 22.0 

    These 4 are well clear of rest so I'll be surprised if 1 or more don't go close .....I'll try 10pt win  khanjar ....3pt wins other 3 ..and 12x 0.5 forecasts 

     

    Quick one Richard, why are you going 10pts on Khanjar when it’s only your third top rated?

    Racing Chat - Monday 4th July.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Darran said:
    I'm looking forward to the 2.10 at Worcester this afternoon as for the first time a horse I have a share in looks set to be favourite for a race. You may remember Intrepide Sud ran in the point to point bumper at Aintree when ridden by Gina. The horse was very keen and she struggled to control him which takes some doing given how strong she is. It was actually a surprise that he was that keen and in the end she just had to let him stride on. I have seen a clip of Gina talking after the race and she said that he must be a good horse to run like that and not be beaten all that far. I know I said I didn't think the race was that strong, but he clearly has the potential to be much better than that run showed and in all honestly the race this afternoon looks even worse on paper. He has gone to Fergal O'Brien and he really likes the horse as does Paddy Brennan after he rode him in a piece of work. If he can translate his home work to the racecourse I do think he is the most likely winner of the race. Obviously the concern is he is too keen again and he might need a bit more time to learn to settle, but he wasn't keen in his point victory at Garthorpe and he's not keen on the gallops so hopefully it was just a one off at Aintree.
     
    Western Safire was the other one at the head of the market but she is now a non-runner. Even so it does look like she's the main danger. Putalinthroughit makes is a newcomer but he was a cheap purchase so hard to think he is anything special, but clearly its a weak race so he might be able to run well. Milfolhas Has makes his debut for the Bowen's having run in a couple of points last year. First up he was 6th in a bumper and then he pulled up in a maiden over 3m. He did show a glimmer of promise there and clearly he's gone to a good yard, but I don't think he's shown as much Intrepide Sud so he needs to have improved in the last year to beat him in my view. Orange Gina has finished 4th at big prices in bumpers in 2020 and 2021. The first she was well beaten, but last time finished much closer having led. That was a bad race though and again the fact she led at a slow pace probably means she was flattered. Tampico Rocco was 6th in this race last on his only ever start and although well beaten he did show a little promise. For some reason Charlie My Boy was been backed from 200/1 into single figures. He's been stuffed in all 3 starts and has only beaten one horse home so god knows whose backing it as there is nothing to recommend him at all, but he has just become a non-runner which seems a bit suspicious to me.
     
    So all in all it looks a terrible contest and I unless he's too keen for his own good again then I struggle to see how anything will be good enough to beat if he replicates his home work. Shame the price isn't bigger, but it is hardly a surprise given how bad the race is.
     
    Intrepid Sud @ Evs with most bookies

    Brennan wants shooting for that ride.

    Lincoln - Doncaster 26th March (not long now!)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

    Just an observation .....I've noticed notre Bella bete has been heavily backed from 14 into around 8s ....but ....he beat united front 1.75 lengths on all weather last time and has been raised 5lb ....united front has a turf mark 12lb lower so effectively meets that same horse saturday 17 lb better off yet is 4x the price ????....??

    Fair point Richard. All i'd say in argument to that (just playing devils advocate), is that there is a reason the horse has a turf mark 12lb lower than the AW. All 5 of his wins have come on the AW, in fact he has only ever placed twice on turf in 26 runs. Conversely, Notre Belle Bete has some good turf form (only beaten 2 lengths by Poetic Flare no less) and is much more lightly raced having only had 9 career starts.

    Racing Chat - Saturday 26th February

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

    Got to agree with you about Strong Power, those 3 speed figures topped by the track record in one of them reads really well and is a max bet for me.

    Intriguing race indeed. Although I am fascinated to see how Strong Power gets on tomorrow, I struggle to see how he could be a max bet? The day he won that Class 2, two runs back, he was receiving 19lbs from Tone The Barone, tomorrow they run off level weights. Not a criticism of your opinion just interested. 

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