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DanV89

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Posts posted by DanV89

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 9th February

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7.45 Southwell

    Trainer form is a concern but if Para Mio can show anything like his form of around 12 months ago he should be going close here at a decent price. Course form at Southwell is obviously important and he has run twice here, finishing 2nd off 64, and and 4th off 62. He was well beaten on his last run but that can be forgiven as he was slowly away and hampered at the start, furthermore that was his first run for 325 days so he was entitled to need that and he should strip fitter today. Dropped a further 3lbs for that he runs off 55 today with George Bass taking off a further 7lbs. Looks a nice price at 8/1.

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

    3rd just touched for 2n.d ...a el Jacklin the winner hadn't run a good all weather race for 12 monthes ...so it was still a good run by the top rated .....consistently in the frame 

    That winner was a clear plot job Richard. Won over C&D this time last year, they then ran him over trips he wouldn't get as well as inadequate trips where he ran badly and as a result got his mark back down. Back down to a winnable mark today and back over C&D, 20/1 into 6/1.

    Not a lot you can do about those.

    Racing Chat - Friday 22nd January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1.00 Lingfield

    A few in here at the top of the market that have form against each other but I'm going to have an ew go on one at a bigger price. Al Verde was running in only his second handicap (0-60) on 2nd Jan here last time over 7f after a 172 day break. He got behind early in a big field and as a result ended up going very wide round the final turn. In the end he finished 6th but I thought his run was better than the bare results suggests as he finished really well down the outside and was only beaten 3 lengths in the end. He's been dropped 3lbs for that and he also goes up in trip to a mile which should suit based on that last run. Also has a good draw in 3 so can hopefully obtain a better position today also drops into a 0-55 handicap. 16/1 available with most bookies.

    Racing Chat - Thursday 21st January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, DanV89 said:

    12.30 Lingfield

    He's been very weak in the market so far but I'm going to take a punt on Nicky Henderson's Fraser Island in the first at Lingfield. He's a 120 rated hurdler running off 73 which is a flat mark he should really be able to exploit. He ran well two starts back over course and distance in blinkers when 3rd beaten 1 & 1/4 lengths off 74. He then ran too bad to be true again over C & D when last of 9 when trying to make the running. This time the blinkers were left off and he wore a visor. Today he runs off 1lb lower, the blinkers return and he drops into Class 5 company from Class 4. Currently 14/1.

    Ran well for a long way but faded tamely late on. 

    Racing Chat - Thursday 21st January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    12.30 Lingfield

    He's been very weak in the market so far but I'm going to take a punt on Nicky Henderson's Fraser Island in the first at Lingfield. He's a 120 rated hurdler running off 73 which is a flat mark he should really be able to exploit. He ran well two starts back over course and distance in blinkers when 3rd beaten 1 & 1/4 lengths off 74. He then ran too bad to be true again over C & D when last of 9 when trying to make the running. This time the blinkers were left off and he wore a visor. Today he runs off 1lb lower, the blinkers return and he drops into Class 5 company from Class 4. Currently 14/1.

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, DanV89 said:

    Personally I quite like the chances of You're Cool. Won last time out at Wolves so clearly in good heart, has form at Southwell off higher marks (3rd off 75 last year) and has a top claimer up. Think he's currently around 7/1. Fantasy Keeper shouldn't be far away either but is short enough at around 3/1.

    Fantasy Keeper wins and drifted nicely to 5/1

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Just now, Trotter said:

    4.40 Sou

    Top Rated 

    Centurian Song 8
    Gossip 8 
    Duke of Firenze and Red Stripes 6

    Value (bet365)

    10/1 Gossip ( my price 9/2) ..... looks the value bet but his points have been gained in class 6 races to he's up in class

    Old timers, Duke of Firenze and Red Stripes are both 12/1 (my price 15/2) so not great value but could be EW punts with the dead 8 runners

    probably a race to leave alone though unless you want to take the Top Rated and Favourite, Centurian Song at 15/8 ........ he might win this by default as most of the other are either aging, class 6 types or want further than this 5 furlongs

    Personally I quite like the chances of You're Cool. Won last time out at Wolves so clearly in good heart, has form at Southwell off higher marks (3rd off 75 last year) and has a top claimer up. Think he's currently around 7/1. Fantasy Keeper shouldn't be far away either but is short enough at around 3/1.

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 1/18/2021 at 11:01 AM, richard-westwood said:

    I wanted to tackle a large hcap just for the fun of it and found this race tomorrow   (tues) Exeter 245 hurdle

    Here's Herbie  8.8  8/1  10/1  good value 

    Sexy lot  7.3  10/1  9/2  poor value

    Stage summit  7.2  10/1  14/1 good value 

    Majestic merlin 6.6 11/1 6/1 poor value 

    Mille sussuri  6.0  13/1 17/2 poor value 

    Only 1 bookie priced up at moment but 2 ew value bets currently in stage summit and heres Herbie....I'll wait to see if bigger prices come online later else I'll go ew on both 

     

    Well Richard, complete difference of opinion on the two selections by the bookies - Here's Herbie has been smashed into as short as 6/1, whereas Stage Summit is currently as big as 40/1..

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Just now, Trotter said:

    No, I don't have a bet365 account ... but that does sound a useful thing to know !

    The horse was single figure odds last night when I first looked at the race .... he's drifted right out and is now the outsider of the field

    I'd be a bit wary of a 10 year old after a break who's drifting in the betting ... I'd guess he's not fit and will need the run!

     

    My thoughts exactly, unless there's a late plunge later!!

    Will watch with interest.

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, Trotter said:

    6.40 Wolv

    Top Rated

    Mythical Madness 11
    Athmad 9
    Avarice 7

    Value (bet365)

    Mythical Madness 16/1 (my price 17/5)
    Avarice 8/1 (my price 6/1)
    Home Before Dusk 9/1 (my price 7/1)

    Mythical Madness stands out as top rated and best 'value' ........ 

    To be honest I wouldn't be rushing to back a 10 year olds that hasn't run for 6 months although he did win on return from a 3 month break last season

    Could do it EW but only 2 places with a field of 7

    Don't know if you have a Bet365 account Trotter (or if you're even backing your selections in reality) however with them you can amend the place terms for most races. Using this one as an example Mythical Madness is 16/1 with the standard 2 places, however they are offering 14/1 for 3 places, and even 10/1 for 4 places.

    Apologies if the term 'grandmother sucking eggs' springs to mind just thought i'd make you (and others) aware if not already ?

    Racing Chat, Monday 11th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4.45 Wolves - Quarry Beach - 18/1 Betfair SB

    Back to 7f I think this one has a decent chance at a big price today. You can probably ignore her last 3 runs as they were all over 1m 2f which is a trip she doesn't get. If you go back to her last visit to Wolves in August last year over 7f she was a very close 3rd in a blanket finish only beaten half a length. That run came off a mark of 71 under David Probert. Her best effort since then came at Kempton, again over 7f and again under Probert, this time off 72. She runs off 64 this afternoon with Probert back in the irons I think she has a good shout.

    Racing Chat- Wednesday 2nd December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by DanV89

    6 minutes ago, Trotter said:

    Anyone know what's going on with the 12 o'clock at Lingfield ........ 45 minutes on and none of the sites have the 'Fast Result' up yet !

    Apparently there’s a communication issue where firms aren’t receiving data from the Press Association so there’s a delay in the results and the settlement of them. 

    Racing Chat Monday 30 November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, DanV89 said:

    4.20 Wolves - Choosey - 11/1

    Given the trainer/jockey combo I get the feeling this one will either finish 1st or last but does seem primed for a good run today. Choosey won over course and distance in October last year off 65. I watched his run 2 starts back here over 6, he was drawn out in 11 and was 5 wide going into the first bend and ridden hard early on, he duly weakened and finished last beaten 22 lengths. As controversial an opinion as this may be, that run stunk of a trainer trying to get a horses mark down in readiness for a 'trying' run which could be today. Back to 5 furlongs and now off a mark of 57 (8lbs below last winning mark), drawn in 2 and Paul Mulrennan booked. Will be interesting to see if the money comes for him during the day and if it does he could go in.

    Has drifted out to 16/1 so looks like today probably won't be the day...

    Racing Chat Monday 30 November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4.20 Wolves - Choosey - 11/1

    Given the trainer/jockey combo I get the feeling this one will either finish 1st or last but does seem primed for a good run today. Choosey won over course and distance in October last year off 65. I watched his run 2 starts back here over 6, he was drawn out in 11 and was 5 wide going into the first bend and ridden hard early on, he duly weakened and finished last beaten 22 lengths. As controversial an opinion as this may be, that run stunk of a trainer trying to get a horses mark down in readiness for a 'trying' run which could be today. Back to 5 furlongs and now off a mark of 57 (8lbs below last winning mark), drawn in 2 and Paul Mulrennan booked. Will be interesting to see if the money comes for him during the day and if it does he could go in.

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